Member Info for rogthegamer

In my simplistic, and perhaps bullish but naive view in terms of religion and politics, calculations regarding how long GKP can survive this shutdown are a waste of effort. Iraq are clearly in need of rapidly increasing revenue with a budget that aims to grow an already bloated civil service in order to provide employment and stability after so many years of senseless turmoil. This genuine desire to enter a new pragmatic dawn, a balance between Iran and the West, relies upon oil price / sales. The fact is almost 1 billion dollars is being lost per month and it’s not in anyones sensible interests to allow this to continue, including Turkey’s.

In the meantime GKP are burning 6 million or so per month and if it does become clear that Turkey will not open the pipeline, (who knows what Putin might be giving Turkey in order to destabilise NATO, certainly oil at a discounted price, ) article 13 of the budget stipulates that an ambitious 400k barrels of Kurdish oil per day should be sold via SOMO into the local market.

I can suppose that GKP could supply 10 / 20 k or so by truck which should cover operating costs indefinitely.

In the long term event that a new pipeline needs to be built and taking account of the proven oil reserves of GKP including the potential of Gas that iraq desperately needs, and the fact that they are seeking foreign investment to replace Gas / Electricity imports from Iran that are sanctioned in terms of payment in dollars, GKP will most likely fall into the hands of a large predator with deep pockets, sadly the institutions will sell for a short term gain, £2 per share I’d guess, however, all being well and if common sense prevails the pipeline will open shortly, GKP will quickly ramp up production to 55k and beyond. The risk factor, we were operating illegally, disappears and the shares will pass 320 before a predator offers 500.

Patience still required and who knows I might buy the new house that my wife dreams about.

It seems that pessimistic reports on this chat of GKP’s impending demise have been greatly exaggerated.

‘ Article 13 of the budget OBLIGES the KRG to hand over at least 400k barrels per day to SOMO to be exported through Ceyhan , OR to be used domestically.’

AGM Update “ We are now exploring potential options to sell our crude to local buyers.” * “ Logistics in place to QUICKLY restart trucking operations. “

No ! that really would be C***eyed. I don’t keep my brains in my short trousers; I came in here a couple of months ago at a little more than the current price and I doubt that I’ll have to wait another 11 Weeks before I take some profits and do what I do, move on to another opportunity. Currently looking at SLP for 6 to 11 months or so, some of the that winter spent in the Sun on the GKP pessimists that sold in April

C***eye 10 years ! In GKP wow, but has GKP lost 94% in those ten years. I don’t believe ‘short trousers idiots’, would suffer that, no wonder you’ve lost hope.

C***eye are you serious? You’ve been nothing but one of the pessimists, no need to name them as they know who they are, those that obviously don’t have the patience or the balls to hold high risk shares of this kind. This was never a gamble for those with the sense to use it as a reasonable part of a diversified portfolio. As a genuine ‘bull’ I came in after the line closure and I’ve said all along that it would be a question of when the pipeline opens and not if. Then patience will still be required while we wait to discover the terms of a new contract with SOMO and of course the time line regarding missed/late payments that, once again, will be when and not if because, ( pessimists, ). Like it or not Iraq needs WESTERN investment.

C***eyed theory. The fact is the Soviet Union has collapsed with most of their former members enjoying greater wealth in the EU and NATO, the standards of living in the west have increased while they deteriorated in the East. Freedom to write what we like, here for instance, is something that the people in Iran /Syria / North Korea / Russia etc envy and practice at their peril. As for Iraq, yes the west committed crimes that we should be ashamed of and resentment exists but they are far better for the defeat of ISIS something that the Kurds should be proud of.

Yes freedom does allow all manner of eccentric behaviour, some not to my taste but far better than being poisoned for airing decent in public or hanged as an example to others for daring to protest in favour of equal rights for women.

Be careful what you wish for, but personally I’ve done rather well as a capitalist and I wouldn’t swop my life expectancy with Putin, Would you?

C***eyed pessimism. Like it or not the vast majority of the world’s wealth is in the West and Iraq would be foolish to push Western companies out unfairly when they still require western investment, protection from ISIS etc. and access to the Western market place. Also, and as China clearly knows, 100% backing those that support Putin is a very risky strategy, a despot who foolishly believed Ukraine would fold in less than a week and the west wouldn’t dare to support them.

Arm. While politicians often have agendas that differ from the best interests of their own people, and East or West loyalty’s they almost all do so from a position of wealth that they seek to maintain. Therefore money will 9/10 dictate the outcome and we have, at long last, entered the last stage of negotiations Re. the pipeline. when that opens 170 will be a reasonable expectation. However, selling on the way up might not be the best strategy with most investments, and with regards to GKP, a company that is increasing production, has large reserves and is no longer operating illegally, logic tells me that this increasing profit alongside reduction of risk will be reflected in the future share price.

Patience still required, but not too much now.

Too hot today my maths are crap but it’s certainly a lot ( 400k barrels per day @ 74 x30 )

* 900k dollars PER MONTH

Itsaponzi. You’re certainly looking for reasons to be pessimistic. There’s no profit in leaving 900K dollars of Kurdistan oil in the ground and before too long that money will talk, just a matter of final negotiations with Turkey.

Patience required while the share price hovers.

* should read ‘One Billion dollars’,

In summary. The Kurdistan region of Iraq support themselves via the sale of oil. Iraq aren’t happy but land locked Kurdish oil has to be exported via Turkey in breach of a legal agreement. Iraq win an international court case against Turkey including a large fine. Turkey stop the oil flow. With no other income Kurdistan have no choice but reaching an agreement with Iraq who now hold the best cards, but not all of them, and following the complexities of negotiations and compromise on all sides an agreement between Iraq and Kurdistan is finally concluded. In the meantime Turkey are not happy with regards to being fined for shipping Kurdistan’s oil and they, understandably, don’t see why they should ship that same oil on behalf of Iraq ( SOMO ) AND pay the fine. This therefore is the last little duck that needs to be lined up and common sense says that approximately 900k dollars of oil per month will not be held up for too much longer in a dispute about a total of 1 million dollars or so.

While common sense and politics are rarely one and the same a little more patience should pay dividends.

The exact words used Re. 400k barrels was “allocated to” Now while I do hope that Kurdish oil could be SENT to local refineries, an allocation could also be Iraq’s oil, otherwise being part of the OPEC cuts, being ‘sent’ with the payment allocated to Kurdistan.

The best route remains via Turkey and I’m sure that’s what will happen, when ? That’s another matter.

Patience still required.

Director share purchases at GENL certainly add some confidence here, no matter how much money they have to invest they certainly wouldn’t throw another 3/4 million yesterday away on a blind gamble.

The stability of our own share price, albeit lower by comparison since the closure than GENL, seems to be saying that something positive is forthcoming. Perhaps today’s Iraq finance committee meeting ahead of another attempt to pass a budget tomorrow will be followed by news on the pipeline / oil company contracts.

As I’ve said far too often “Patience Required” hopefully for the last time.

No smoke without fire I hope because the share price is most often a guide to the future.

That or a ‘Dead Cat Bounce’

Patience required

While I will admit that the legal technicalities of the issue is beyond me I wonder why Turkey would pay a fine to Iraq for transporting oil on behalf of Kurdistan? Then transport Kurdish oil on behalf of Iraq.

With regards to GENL director share purchases, obviously a reason why their price has held up and it does demonstrate their confidence in the long term future of Kurdish oil production. That said, in theory directors in possession of information not available to other shareholders are not allowed to buy shares. In reality that’s not the World that we live in. The recent stability / small recovery in the GKP price is encouraging, especially if some know something that I don’t.

Overall the politics are still confusing.

First the Iraq oil minister says “we took advantage of the suspension to meet the reduction of OPEC quota “

Then he said “the suspension of exports from Kirkuk and the Kurdistan Region will not continue. There are negotiations with the Turkish side to resume this.”

So that’s as clear as mud, and I wonder where the next 200k barrel reduction will come from.

Arm. Clearly you have little foresight with regards to the market in GKP shares. Which is strangely calm when considering the current circumstances and begs a question of the wisdom of investments elsewhere for those that doubt the future of the Western democratic World, the Russian stock market perhaps.

As patience is clearly required with GKP speculation with regards to political issues that are a matter of opinion and beyond our control are a worthless waste of time.

Itsaponzi Yes this does seem to be a strange time for them to attract investment. That said, last year’s GKP tax free profits paid dividends that, at the time, were being applauded almost every day on this share chat.

Now we’re upset about the absence of any income following an international court ruling that had been widely expected, I’d read articles that predicted with some certainty that Iraq would win their case, information that was in the public domain for all but those that didn’t choose to listen.

Yes this period of complex negotiations between politicians with differing agendas has become maddening, but in the grand scheme of things I’m reasonably sure that we’ll look back on this, in time, as being a wonderful opportunity to build a bargain price investment in what will once again be a very profitable company producing increasing amounts of oil. Patience still required.