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Having taken notice of the price that DNO are securing for their ‘local ‘ oil sales I was expecting that GKPs share price would increase today, the fact that it hasn’t increased so far is disappointing and gives rise to the suspicion that GKP might not be achieving those higher prices. In this case GKP should provide an update, certainly if there has been a meaningful price increase since their last reported 25 dollars.
We shall see, if not via an update via results.
While I do agree with the points so well made by Belgrano, I’m sitting on a fence having heard so many ‘logical’ reasons why the pipeline ‘will open’ in the past. Therefore in the present I for one can only hope the market will reward a cash positive company that even in adversity is profitable. As I hope the next update will confirm.
In the meantime Patience Required.
You’re not the only one that expected the announcement of an agreement during the Erdogan visit, I suppose they’re still negotiating the financial terms of an oil export agreement and how much water Turkey will allow to flow into Iraq.
Sadly as demonstrated by their use of an Iranian weapon to attack Kurdish gas production the very highly placed Iranian influenced politicians in Iraq will not allow the pipeline to open unless they gain full control of Kurdistan’s oil and therefore their only significant income, including their ability to finance a fighting force that supports U.S. interests in the region. Now we can only hope that Kurdistan still has some good cards to play and an agreement will come in time. In the meantime it seems that profits on what they call ‘local sales’ will allow GKP to build a cash reserve that might, if it becomes large enough, allow reasonable dividends to be paid. At that point the shares might be revalued upwards even if the pipeline remains shut.
Personally I’m on ‘hold,’ although if Itsaponze predictions of 90p are right for once I’ll probably change my position to ‘buy’ that said his record in terms of predictions has been useless to date.
Patience Required
Itsaponzi it’s about time for you to try to make some valid points, albeit on subjects that others have been speculating about on this forum for some considerable time.
If I were you I’d read Belgrano’s comments as they seen to be written from a background of knowledge.
Clearly Iranian influence is behind Iraq’s blatant attempt to ‘control’ Kurdistan, and we must say not without success. However, the notion that Iraq can in the long term export Kirkuk oil directly to Turkey via a long pipeline that runs alongside Kurdistan , and at the same time requires Kurdistan to supply cheap oil on the local market in exchange for budget payments is foolish. Someday someone, to be called a terrorist or Isis for convenience, will blow a large hole or two in that.
Patience still required. In the meantime we, (the long investors and not the pessimists that hope GKP will fail) can only hope that some modest profits will support a higher share price and a little dividend on occasion.
Had the Itsaponzi’s on this board taken any notice they would have witnessed two recent trades that I posted in advance and live as they happened, two profitable trades that have contrasted with ‘birdbrains’ 90p predictions that have thus far been tripe.
While I don’t see 90p short term myself it would be nice because that price for a share in a cash positive profitable GKP is the volatility that traders thrive upon. So if anyone out there would like to sell @ 90p or less do so when, for once birdbrain might be right, I for one will probably be buying at that price.
Belgrano that’s heavy.
When I first purchased GKP shortly after the pipe closure I knew next to nothing about Middle Eastern values and politics. No after all of this time and the advice of many including the sensible post that you and some post. I can confidently say that I know and understand far less.
While I will say that I was expecting positive agreements yesterday and as such I’m disappointed. However, the politicians have set their serious negotiating stance, and negotiations will continue from that point. I do believe that Iraq have decided that the IOCs will swallow whatever they are offered, which when taking account of Iraq’s requirement from Western investments, should be palatable if not good. At that point, whenever that might be, my core holding in GKP acquired @136 average price will be more valuable.
In the meantime as I’ve reduced my recommendation to hold and therefore my 114p ‘day trade’ had to be closed before I achieved my 15% target. Never mind 10% s okay, certainly better than nothing if I’d been stupid enough to wait and buy for the 90p that a bird brain predicted a few day ago.
What planet have you been o this past few weeks.
No news yet but Erdogan has actually arrived in Baghdad ( at long last) now let’s see what happens next.
FCFY
Yes that may well be correct and the lack of a positive price movement on Friday backs that up. However Erdogan will also visit Kurdistan. To say what “ I’ve just sold you out via another pipeline “ I doubt it and as we gave less than ten minutes before the market opens the price will be interesting.
By the way I doubt that anyone would rely upon a pipe that runs for many miles beside a potentially hostile Kurdistan.
When I purchased GKP@ 114 on Thursday I did so in the expectation that the President of Turkey will turn up and appear alongside the Prime Minister of Iraq smiling with regards to an agreement. Friday’s share price however took a different view, just another false dawn perhaps.
Now I’m given to understand that Erdogan will also visit Kurdistan during that one single day. If this is not the long awaited opportunity to announce a pipeline agreement what can it be. Border security perhaps, or nothing substantial as indicated by the current 112 share price, which is very often right.
I’m in this up to my eyebrows so here’s hopping and we shall see soon.
Maybe that dilution is behind my loss so far on the shares that I purchased this morning @114. Never mind if they go down much more I’ll buy some more.
Here’s hoping that Erdogan will be smiling when they announce an agreement. If he turns up otherwise we’ll be down where Itzaponz will be rejoicing and telling us all how F****** clever he is
Itsaponzi You seem to have woken up with regards to facts that I for one and many others on this forum have been considering for several months.
In short you are the worm that seems to be turning after your previous tripe has been proven to be utter nonsense. . So don’t come on here now in the pretence that you are clever when the reverse us true. Only one day ago you were confidently predicting doom and gloom as usual and 90 p shares. I just purchased a chunk for 114.
What’s that about if it wasn’t something that most of the more thoughtful people on here have long considered.
Itsaponzi has your brain finally caught up with others here. And will you stop beating KRG down.
The fact is over many years of turmoil GKP gave demonstrated their ability to survive and thrive in the difficult and troubled area of Iraq. They will do so again it’s only a matter of TIME.
Um? Sounds more positive than previous ‘dawns’ Blumagnet. If I get the chance @ 112 or thereabouts first thing this morning I’ll buy a substantial day / or thereabouts Trade.
Seems like Isaponz is wrong as usual. Obviously doesn’t put money where the big mouth is and prefers to aim snide comments at others in preference to posting interesting or useful opinions. Clearly in fear that investors with money to spend and the balls to take adult risks might be rewarded. Jealousy.
Personally I’m on hold pending the probability that Erdogan will turn up this time and the leaders of both nations will pretend it’s all sweetness and love via an agreement. We shall see, if not GKP remains cash rich and profitable.
Well here we are again. It’saponce. Exactly as it was 11 days ago when I purchased a ‘day trade @109 and sold it one market day later with my predicted 15% margin. While this moment in time doesn’t quite feel right as another buying opportunity, as successful trader GKP is my ideal volatile stock ( can’t make much money short term on Aviva / legal and general etc. ) I’m looking for the moment to strike.
As for my core long term holding in GKP, a company that is cash positive and profitable, I’ll sit on that for, within reason, as long as it takes for the value to materialise.
As for the notion in today’s article that the pipeline will never reopen because it has been replaced by the repaired pipe and Iranian influenced politicians want to squeeze and control Kurdistan indefinitely. Can that be a long term position? I’m not so sure because history tells us that the Kurds are proud and strong, they also have a 100k strong fighting force that saved Iraq with Western support from ISiS. The Islamists that blew the now repaired pipeline into a thousand pieces. Can Iraq ‘screw’ the Kurds into submission by economic force for much longer before they have nothing to lose by fighting back, and in that respect the Iraqi armed forces do not have a very good record, quite the reverse and I doubt that they’ll risk a battle that they, or anyone, can win.
Let’s see what happens when Erdogan turns up, if he does.
Patience
Here we go again, price goes down and Itsaponzi can’t resist the chance to have a sadist’s joyful experience at the expense of GKP shareholders.
But the fact is shares rarely go up in straight lines. The ‘buy on the rumour’ traders pushed the price up buying to 127 then the profit takers sold and the price dropped. Just as I expected and I sold my day trade @126.
This was what I expected when I purchased that day trade on the preceding Friday on the likelihood of positive news re. U.S. visit and Erdogan Baghdad visit ( if it actually happens) as those two events have yet to happen I’ll keep an eye on the price and if I’m lucky ponzi’s prediction of doom lower doom will be correct and I’ll buy that day trade
again and then ‘sell on the news’ when the president / prime minister finally agree
Should read Patience was required But enough Is almost enough
P. S.
Patience was required buy enough us almost enough.
I joined this forum shortly before making my first of numerous purchases of GKP shares @146 almost one year ago. My research had revealed the prospect of volatility which is essential for a share trader. This could have been a ‘long’ day trade but the shares continued to fall and I still own them now along with many more. However, I maintained my buy recommendation that is essential to a longer term part of my portfolio ( if I don’t believe that the shares warrant buying why hold them)
My current hold position however does not merit becoming a sell at his time because I do believe we are in the endgame with more positive short term prospects than negative. That said some compelling negatives do exist and I’ll be ready to jump in either direction in an instant.
The last thing that I would like now is for a dispute that common sense could resolve now to be cast back into the long grass where it has been for the past year. Life’s too short to sit here for very much longer and I for one will move on to my next volatile share opportunity, because that’s what a gamer does.