Member Info for rogthegamer

As a trader I try to predict the future price of equities. With regards to GKP those that might have been brave enough to follow my published positions here would have made a considerable profit within little more than 24 months. Perhaps foolishly so because only a fool would take notice of anonymous voices on this forum. That said I now believe that GKP is a medium term buy ( not short term because it might drop some more before it goes up again ) However, I don’t see a reason why I should post further predictions following the post that said Oh no! “ Rog the bore’s back” a comment that received 6 likes, one from itsawhatever no doubt. Okay you have spoken.

As you maybe aware I’ve been looking at the GKP share price following my ‘sell on the news’ strategy success. So is this the time to buy the shares sold back.

Personally I’m Looking at a 50p difference on my side. Enough to follow my own feelings and buy ( As I already have this morning )

As we all have different agendas, Buy GKP might not be in your best interests short term.

Down. That’s how some win and some lose. However, and unlike Ms PUTUP who posts lots of opinions here under a heading of ‘No Opinion’ Strange ? then claims to have sold at the best price, after a day or more have past. Really? By contrast I posted my one and only sell recommendation @ 226p. It’s still there to be seen. Previously I posted buy and hold recommendations all of the way between 90p and 226p when I sold minutes before my sell recommendation @ an average of 223p

So if I’m so clever where do we go from here? I could buy back and bank the difference (sold 223 buyback 16? / 17? ) or I could follow the forum fool’s predictions and wait for a lower price. No itsaloser is not one to follow. So I’ll Probably be a buyer @ 170 in the hope that the oil price holds up and / or we get an arrears agreement.

As always I’ll post that new buy position, if I don’t have second thoughts before / or when I return as a buyer. In the meantime I’ll enjoy the retirement that my confidence in GKP earned for me.

Agreed LESL ***. and yes I’ll also be content to hold some shares for the dividends / value of the assets. In the meantime life’s about living and I’ve just given notice of retirement from my Bangkok day job and I’ll spend some profits in my new Cha-am home.

Well done to everyone here that has also made / or is holding a profit , you deserve the rewards for the strength required to make an investment in a dangerous place.

In respect of my usual clarity on this forum. My current sell position reflects my own personal circumstances as they are today.

While I remain firm in my belief that GKPs future is positive, ( and there is a genuine possibility that a larger oil company, or two, will see this new improved situation as an opportunity to buy a valuable asset.) I’m a trader first and foremost and as such there’s no room for sentiment. I bought into GKP following extensive research shortly after the pipeline closure in the view that the share price would recover when, and not if, it reopens. As it now has.

While I didn’t expect to wait so long the dividends have compensated. Also as mentioned here at the time, I took advantage of the weakness @89 / 95. Plus as a trader the share price volatility presented several short term opportunities along the way, including one last week, closed today.

I never had the intention to hold in the very long term, however, and in part due to the information and sentiments kindly posted here, plus further research, I’ve decided to hold a significant portion of my investment for the medium term. Nevertheless a profit was the original intention and therefore I’ll leave something for the next person / institution in the hope that the share price will continue to rise for them.

In the meantime I’ll keep an eye on this forum because the sensible poster’s save my time reading press reports. And I do enjoy a ‘bit of banter’ with the fools, one in particular.

The long awaited agreement with improved financial circumstances & a new legal status in Iraq has resulted in a revaluation of GKPs worth from 160/ 170s to 220p within a month; Great. During the coming few months we’ll no doubt discover the true / full extent of our new situation and the share price will reflect that. Personally I believe that 240 /260s will be reasonable range with a dividend of circa 50 / 75 million dollars per year. ( 17 / 25p = 7/ 10% yield ) What’s not to like? Okay it could have been better, but it might have been a whole lot worse. Our agreement is pragmatic, ie. Sensible under the circumstances.

So we’re all happy ? No. Some of us were expecting 260 /300+ Now! A price range that could become a reasonable expectation IF the very real possibility that our legal status AND our vast assets underground, including the Gas that we lack the resources or the expertise to quickly exploit, become the subject of takeover interest / speculation. 500 or so will no doubt temp more than enough shareholders to sell, a bidding war could take that price higher. Under those circumstances we could trade in a 290 / 350 range in the medium term future.

So in the midst of this new improved situation Ms PUTUP has focused on potential problems and ‘clever dick’ reasons to be cautious. If he/she really does have a significant holding in GKP why publish so much negativity? Personally I wouldn’t publicly highlight reasons to believe that my own investment isn’t worth much more or even less than its current price. If I held those opinions about any investment I’d sell it. 100% not 33% @ 202/6. In fact I wouldn’t have purchased it.

As for the ‘forum fool’ Now it says our new improved situation is “Not a good start” no doubt why it won’t invest in GKP for the Same reasons that it predicted 60p when the shares were 90p. Also it so confidently said Iraq and Kurdistan will Never Ever reach any kind of agreement whatsoever. Ie. it is a fool with nothing better to do in its sad life. So we can expect more of its lunacy for sure, and I’ll take that as a reason to laugh and respond with a bit if banter. .

So into the future, personally I might take some profits rather than take them to my grave, but I’ll hold some GKP shares for a little longer. Confidently.

“Good luck to those buying at these levels” Thanks PUTUP However, my announced trading buy @115 ish. Is in positive territory, just, although I’ll be relying on a stop loss for a while as my day’s done until I check in at 10.20 ish. (My Time) to take a profit or hold for Monday.

Fair enough re. taking a profit. Leaving something for someone else is wise v. trying to find the top in a volatile market.

P .S. I would have thought that our ‘forum fool’ Ponzi wouldn’t have had the nerve to appear today, not unless it was honest enough to admit that it was wrong. Again ie. Never say Never fool.

So it seems that PUTUP should’ve taken Itsaponzi’s advice and held for the fact. (News) What a pairing.

Trading position back to Hold while I wait for a spike before the market close. If it doesn’t spike today I’ll be holding for the weekend in the hope that the Sunday press recommendations include GKP otherwise I’ll take a hit or transfer to a long term investment in a company with very good prospects.

Have a nice weekend.

I’ll stick my neck out in public. 215 was a day trading opportunity. I hope or my weekend won’t t be so nice.

If I’m wrong my long term portfolio will be boosted because I’m not a seller of GKP ( other than trading) when positive factors have been confirmed.

Settling down as more trades appear to be sells on the ‘ fact.’ While 217 might not be a day trading opportunity. It is, i believe, a medium term trading possibility.

Medium term Buy

Looking at my screen it seems that real trades are being made in the 220s and tiny technical trades are in far a lower range. Personally I’m not taking part today despite volatility being my friend. my nerves are not strong enough.

Patience please. As I said today, Before the market opened, the price will include news already factored in and it will be dampened by selling on the ‘fact’

In time the share price will settle at an increased price. Hold

RNS as expected, now we shall shortly see how much of this good news was already factored into the share price. As a trader I suppose those that sell on the ‘fact’ will dampen any increase that will, I suppose, when the dust settles, reflect the greatly reduced risk factor in holding GKP shares and the increased cash flow / profits. In short I do expect that the share price will increase further in the coming weeks and months as market analysts publish their recommendations.

The share price should also, in time, reflect the massive value of GKPs assets under ground, that as mentioned in today’s RNS include Gas, therefore the very real possibility that an oil major will swallow GKP @ or above 400 / 500 + will, I suppose add speculation that could take us towards my ‘fair value’ target of 300 IF the 57p or so per share of debt repayment is agreed.

In the meantime it might be wise to take some of the rewards that we deserve for sticking with this through troubled times.

Finally, with 20 minutes left Before, we discover market reaction, as one of this forum’s most bullish posters for two years my position has been vindicated. Thankfully because the thought that our forum fool could’ve said “ I told you so” has disappeared, as I hope It has.

At Long Long last we can confidently say that the pipeline deal is done.

While much of this agreement is in the price, all apart from the fine print detail to be revealed today I suppose via an RNS, it does seem that the resolution of the debt issue has been pushed into the long grass, however and as in the past, this will probably be paid in instalments that are pure tax free profit for capital investment and / or dividends.

I’ve yet to tell her indoors if only because she’s been pushing for a rare family Xmas in the U K (where everyone seems to be moaning.) ie. I might need to sell a few. But I’ll probably keep most in the belief that we’re becoming very attractive as a target. @ c. 500+

Smudge Yes much of the upside is already ‘priced in’ and I for one won’t be surprised if the shares drop a little when those that sell on the ‘fact’ take their profits.

Given time the price will reflect the actual circumstances, however, before the pipeline closure GKP shares traded on a PE ratio that reflected the risk in the region, and I suppose it still will. But that risk has now been reduced simply because Iraq have accepted the legality of our contracts, and apparently given us assurances that we will be paid on time in the future, which wasn’t the case when Kurdistan held the purse strings, hence the 100m were owed. We shall see, and I’ll wait to see.

By the way I Don’t wonder why we haven’t been bothered by our forum fool for a day or two, although I’m sure it’ll be back with more doom and gloom predictions before too long. After all being wrong doesn’t seem to bother it.

To sell or not to sell ? That’s a difficult decision. While we wait for the all important RNS as confirmation of the details in the deal it can be tempting to take a profit, and why not because that’s what investments are all about. As I mentioned previously “ buy on the rumour, sell on the fact” is often, but not always sound advice because share prices usually factor in good news as there’s usually some inside knowledge. Also reality might not be quite so good as the rumours suggested. Personally I’m holding on because I do believe there is long term value in GKP and my circumstances don’t require a cash injection at present. Of course circumstances differ and, in hindsight 202 Monday / 206 Tuesday wasn’t the top of the market as it appeared to be at the time.

Starsalign. How did you know I live in a country where herbs are legal ?

It does seem that the last little ducks are falling into line and a long awaited pipeline agreement has been reached pragmatically; ie. all sides have given and taken a little. Therefore we, GKP, probably won’t get everything we would’ve expected or liked. That’s life in the real world, and I won’t complain if most of the good news is already in the price if, today or later this week, the expected RNS is released and we don’t get all that we wanted.

I suppose our individual positions in terms of the average price that we paid for our shares will determine how pleased / disappointed we become when the share price more accurately reflects the facts as opposed to the rumours, and our individual feelings / circumstances.

As it’s so often said ‘buy on the rumours sell on the facts.’ In that respect I’ll adjust my position and announce it accordingly to Buy, Sell, or hold, as I always have on every single one of my post’s here., where I’m pleased to say that my record has been okay but not perfect. Including buy positions @89 / 95 and more recently at various prices, none being Sell, while we’ve been on the way back up to 200 ( there’re still there to be seen) while I do follow my own advise it’s Not something that anyone else should do because nobody here knows me or my motives.

Therefore I could be a seller or a buyer today or any other day. I never make the mistake of falling in love with an investment. However, I might hold on long term prospects. We shall see, and we all make our own decisions based upon our own individual circumstances. For instance PUTUP sold 20% @ 200 or so, no doubt based upon he / she’s historical technically based ( too clever for me) ‘fair value’ assessment being surpassed. As opposed to my personal judgement based decisions. Now we’ll soon see if he / she’s right or wrong for selling just Before the new facts are revealed. Personally I believe that he/she was too impatient. ie. Wrong. But I could be wrong because share trading isn’t something that can have the benefit of hindsight.

Finally, well done to all that have invested there hard earned money in GKP because this was never a share for the weak or the wimps, Itsaponzi for instance.

There’s a meeting here, there’s a meeting there, there’s a meeting everywhere.

Confused?

Responding to Ponzi seems to be how it gets its enjoyment in life. Nevertheless I’ll respond again as harmless banter while I wait for confirmation of what seems to be an agreement at long last.

So it says “Nice to see everyone making a few quid today.”

Best wishes Itsahypocrite. .