Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Arm. While politicians often have agendas that differ from the best interests of their own people, and East or West loyalty’s they almost all do so from a position of wealth that they seek to maintain. Therefore money will 9/10 dictate the outcome and we have, at long last, entered the last stage of negotiations Re. the pipeline. when that opens 170 will be a reasonable expectation. However, selling on the way up might not be the best strategy with most investments, and with regards to GKP, a company that is increasing production, has large reserves and is no longer operating illegally, logic tells me that this increasing profit alongside reduction of risk will be reflected in the future share price.
Patience still required, but not too much now.
Too hot today my maths are crap but it’s certainly a lot ( 400k barrels per day @ 74 x30 )
* 900k dollars PER MONTH
Itsaponzi. You’re certainly looking for reasons to be pessimistic. There’s no profit in leaving 900K dollars of Kurdistan oil in the ground and before too long that money will talk, just a matter of final negotiations with Turkey.
Patience required while the share price hovers.
* should read ‘One Billion dollars’,
In summary. The Kurdistan region of Iraq support themselves via the sale of oil. Iraq aren’t happy but land locked Kurdish oil has to be exported via Turkey in breach of a legal agreement. Iraq win an international court case against Turkey including a large fine. Turkey stop the oil flow. With no other income Kurdistan have no choice but reaching an agreement with Iraq who now hold the best cards, but not all of them, and following the complexities of negotiations and compromise on all sides an agreement between Iraq and Kurdistan is finally concluded. In the meantime Turkey are not happy with regards to being fined for shipping Kurdistan’s oil and they, understandably, don’t see why they should ship that same oil on behalf of Iraq ( SOMO ) AND pay the fine. This therefore is the last little duck that needs to be lined up and common sense says that approximately 900k dollars of oil per month will not be held up for too much longer in a dispute about a total of 1 million dollars or so.
While common sense and politics are rarely one and the same a little more patience should pay dividends.
The exact words used Re. 400k barrels was “allocated to” Now while I do hope that Kurdish oil could be SENT to local refineries, an allocation could also be Iraq’s oil, otherwise being part of the OPEC cuts, being ‘sent’ with the payment allocated to Kurdistan.
The best route remains via Turkey and I’m sure that’s what will happen, when ? That’s another matter.
Patience still required.
Director share purchases at GENL certainly add some confidence here, no matter how much money they have to invest they certainly wouldn’t throw another 3/4 million yesterday away on a blind gamble.
The stability of our own share price, albeit lower by comparison since the closure than GENL, seems to be saying that something positive is forthcoming. Perhaps today’s Iraq finance committee meeting ahead of another attempt to pass a budget tomorrow will be followed by news on the pipeline / oil company contracts.
As I’ve said far too often “Patience Required” hopefully for the last time.
No smoke without fire I hope because the share price is most often a guide to the future.
That or a ‘Dead Cat Bounce’
Patience required
While I will admit that the legal technicalities of the issue is beyond me I wonder why Turkey would pay a fine to Iraq for transporting oil on behalf of Kurdistan? Then transport Kurdish oil on behalf of Iraq.
With regards to GENL director share purchases, obviously a reason why their price has held up and it does demonstrate their confidence in the long term future of Kurdish oil production. That said, in theory directors in possession of information not available to other shareholders are not allowed to buy shares. In reality that’s not the World that we live in. The recent stability / small recovery in the GKP price is encouraging, especially if some know something that I don’t.
Overall the politics are still confusing.
First the Iraq oil minister says “we took advantage of the suspension to meet the reduction of OPEC quota “
Then he said “the suspension of exports from Kirkuk and the Kurdistan Region will not continue. There are negotiations with the Turkish side to resume this.”
So that’s as clear as mud, and I wonder where the next 200k barrel reduction will come from.
Arm. Clearly you have little foresight with regards to the market in GKP shares. Which is strangely calm when considering the current circumstances and begs a question of the wisdom of investments elsewhere for those that doubt the future of the Western democratic World, the Russian stock market perhaps.
As patience is clearly required with GKP speculation with regards to political issues that are a matter of opinion and beyond our control are a worthless waste of time.
Itsaponzi Yes this does seem to be a strange time for them to attract investment. That said, last year’s GKP tax free profits paid dividends that, at the time, were being applauded almost every day on this share chat.
Now we’re upset about the absence of any income following an international court ruling that had been widely expected, I’d read articles that predicted with some certainty that Iraq would win their case, information that was in the public domain for all but those that didn’t choose to listen.
Yes this period of complex negotiations between politicians with differing agendas has become maddening, but in the grand scheme of things I’m reasonably sure that we’ll look back on this, in time, as being a wonderful opportunity to build a bargain price investment in what will once again be a very profitable company producing increasing amounts of oil. Patience still required.
Garry. Welcome to what has become a ‘madhouse’ where we speculate with regards to the prospects of GKP.
Believe me nothing here is simple, or as you say “simply a case of Turkey getting the pipeline open again.” When I purchased my comparatively large interest in GKP the pipeline had just been closed and that was my own line of thinking.
Sadly I didn’t know that local politicians behave in the interests of their own agendas above those of the people that they are supposed to represent. At one point I foolishly believed that all of the various factions in Iraq had reached a pragmatic agreement and it would simply be a matter of waiting for the results of the Turkish election to be decided, but that was before Islamists on a finance committee decided that their hatred for the Kurds outweighs the interests of their own blind followers.
If you can afford the potential of a loss enjoy the ride as I do with banter like this here and the probability is that the love of money, as always, will prevail. The oil is far too valuable to be left in the ground.
Confused? I am.
Confused? Yes as predicted.
All of those technical points are no doubt valid but looking at this from my simple minded prospective I can only see the positive fact that Iraq have signed contracts with the major international oil traders that will sell Kurdish oil, when Turkey agrees to open the pipe, no doubt the same oil traders that gave Kurdistan huge sums of money secured on future oil sales that were lost when the pipeline was closed. I can therefore assume that they have been given assurances regarding those lost payments , payments that can only be made when GKP etc produce oil that they will also expect to be paid for.
Confused? If not you will be after the next episode.
****eye yes there’s no doubt that political interests are involved, and there are complex east / west issues where haltered, ideology, stupidity and religious fanaticism are a factor. however, money is very powerful and pragmatism will probably prevail and the oil will flow.
also we are at a critical junction regarding the balance of power in the world and turkey is positioned in the middle of a volatile region, as is iraq, but leaning towards russia more and more carries great risk for the leaders of nations that do hate the values and past behaviour of the west and given the chance would murder us all. what will they do if russia fails in the ukraine or putin is toppled, be that likely or not erdogan would have considered the possibility as have china.
Terry I have an idea and as you are clearly experienced in this matter I wonder if you will kindly offer me some advice with the benefit of you knowledge.
I have identified a company that operates in a high risk / reward area and their shares are currently trading at a historically low price. I do not hold any shares in this myself as I’m a bit of a ‘wimp’ but my concern is for all of those naive people that do hold the shares and, like you, I have such a good heart I really do need to tell them that they should sell their shares, especially if they do increase in price from the current low as you recommend so often with GKP.
As fellow wimps too frightened to take risks in life we should stick together in the hope that those bold adults that do take calculated chances make money, that would really hurt us.
While today’s RNS was not positively received by the market it didn’t mention anything new or negative that was unknown on this forum. On the contrary it confirms the agreement between Baghdad and the KRG and it doesn’t mention any concern regarding new contractual issues with SOMO, which leads me to believe that they will immediately pump oil as soon as they are allowed to do so in the confidence that payments will follow. Indeed they are clearly expecting that the KRG should pay the arrears.
The ball is in Turkey’s court and they will do all that they can do to avoid paying a billion plus fine to Iraq for transporting oil on behalf of Kurdistan, so would I. However, in the long term a dispute between Turkey and Iraq will not be in Turkey’s best interests, on the contrary both sides will benefit from a speedy agreement following the election on Sunday.
This being so I for one remain confident that the resolution of what i will most probably look back upon in the not too distant future as a relatively short dispute, was positive in the long term with regards to the risk of investments in GKP, most especially if, as it now seems it will, Iraq becomes * relatively stable. ( * relative to an extremely troubled past )
The current 300 million market valuation of GKP by comparison with the huge proven potential of the assets is clearly taking account of the possibility that no agreement will be forthcoming, but personally I can’t see any long term reason why that worst case scenario will happen. Under those circumstances the shares are at today’s price a reasonable / good buying opportunity, and I would certainly buy more myself if I hadn’t already purchased as many as I can afford to write off and move on to another opportunity without regret.