Member Info for rogthegamer

Having opened a short term position @ 181 at the beginning of last week in the expectation that the last two of the 12 little ducks in my line would be announced during the week, pipeline open on new terms and agreement to repay arrears, the price has risen to 182 which doesn’t cover costs.

That said, this week next week or some time soon will have to do. In the meantime I’ve set an automatic stop loss @ - 10%.

Reuters “A historic shake-up of the Middle East is starting to draw international investors, warming to the prospects of relative pease after so much turmoil” Continued. An interesting read.

In short the chances of more lower risk profiled institutional money finding its way into the region is increasing to our advantage.

Zzz It seems I can’t be accused of not making a point or two. Be they correct or not because I don’t have a Crystal Ball.

Straycat it seems that your looking forward to capital spending for the benefit of future production, and quite right to. However, as an elderly person I would like some of the cake today, or asap. therefore I mentioned a lower dividend as being appropriate for my position alongside the hope that I will survive for long enough to reap the rewards of reasonable capital investments.

I’m a bit like an open book and if those that don’t like that here say so I’ll desist.

Conditioning. Really and I thought that most contributors here would be sensible adults that will consider various points of view with an open mind and then make their own mind’s up based upon their own research, experience and circumstances.

As I said my opinions my own and I do not have an agenda here other than as a means to think out loud and pass time while I monitor current positions, including one made @181 yesterday and another @ a bit less today. Could it be that you yourself were conditioned into believing long past valuations that proved to be over optimistic if not false and as a result those outdated figures are the basis for a belief that a target price over 300 is low. Really? Or a bid value of £5/7 per share isn’t good by comparison with 180 today. Personally I live in the present and billions in a bush as opposed to millions in the pocket are useless.

With my investors retirement plan hat on.

A) An acceptable long term ( 1/2/3 years ) investment. From a position of financial strength GKP will progress towards a 100/20 barrels per day field development plan (2 / 10 years ) in which case a large proportion of profits will be required for capital investment, however our board have demonstrated their commitment to shareholders by paying reasonable / good dividends, therefore I’ll expect a minimum of 8p final and 5p interim rising towards a total of 24p On that basis I’ll target a share price of 240/60 based upon a ‘PUTUP’ technical valuation. In addition I’ll add sentiment and subject to the important BP investment in the region, I’ll factor in a bid premium of up to 60/80 p (300 /320 share price) and a yield @240p in the range of 10%. Although from my own perspective of being a recent buyer with a far lower cost of investment that yield will be higher.

B) in the event that, as seems most likely, BP demonstrate their renewed confidence in Iraq’s seemingly acceptance of western influenced stability with a large long term investment, both they, and other large western companies that will follow their lead, will cast an eye over GKPs assets which are massive and importantly include the need to reduce flaring and exploit the gas that Iraq requires if the powers that be there are to improve the living standards of their people instead of feathering their own nests or satisfying their own fanatical anti western agendas. In that case I’d expect a minimum of £5 per share and I’ll hope for £7/10. This or early next year. ( with a share option for those that would otherwise pay CGT)

C) in a volatile world where a USA first Trump will be in the most powerful position bar none, something unpredictable will happen, we shall see and who knows what that might be, hopefully not another virus or Isis, but it could be Isreal being allowed to destroy Iran before Iran develops the means to destroy Israel.

In summary the GKP situation is interesting and I’ve enjoyed my position here for the most part of two years to date, including the comedy provided by Itsa person that’s playing with emotions here in order to satisfy a mental condition.

Is it the time to step back and consider GKPs current position without sentimental consideration of its checkered past, the time when it was a different beast.

In my humble opinion. ( personally I take note of opinions posted here, and the links to the press etc. saves some valuable time, I do not however, act upon the opinions of anonymous people, and therefore nor should you with regards to my posts.) that said In the short term, months, the current share price reflects the probability that GKP will trade profitably from April onwards on a new deal with Baghdad that’s okay but not wonderful. Over the next few days and weeks announcements will be made as each of the final steps falls into place and in that respect I’ll trade the shares in the expectation that I can profit by predicting the movements, ( a traders favourite shares are those with the appearance of a rollercoaster chart ) although I doubt that I’ll predict the ups and downs perfectly, starting from yesterday’s closing price as we progress towards March 20th. My prediction is a price range between high 170s and 210.

To be continued Re. My bet on the longer term position.

With BP set to announce the final agreement for a profit sharing contract @25 billion over 25 years we can be assured that BP have been given enough assurances to be confident of their position in Iraq and Kirkuk to be precise. Kirkuk being in traditional Kurdish territory. Including a requirement to export via Kurdistan / Turkey.

Interesting article Oil Price. Importantly the due diligence of BP will add confidence to other large western corporations.

If BP consider GKP very good value or not others might and the possibility of that alone will warrant in increase in our share price. I also note the oil minister’s press release regarding the almost immediate transfer of 300k barrels per day, something that has / will require the cooperation of IOCs that must demand repayment of arrears.

Finally while the above is positive for my own long term buy position I am considering going from hold to buy on a trading account. Maybe this afternoon or in the morning ??

PS BondSan

Yes I day trade for a living, why not? However, I do now hold a large, for me, long term position in GKP. For A Reason, although I’ve never claimed to be anyone other than someone being openly bullish (from a low point )

Well BondSan that’s true I do not know very much about GKP before I identified an opportunity after the pipeline closed.

I live in the present and I perform currently relevant serious research, my posts here reflect a personal view following 37 years when I’ve lived on the proceeds of getting far more investments right than wrong My recommendations here reflect my current day trading, for instance closing on Monday and being out for two days to date, facts that posted, overall I’ve been reasonably accurate here and I also enjoy a bit of banter while I work. Why I respond to the person that is the most interesting on this forum. Itsasomething

“I’ve never said GKP is overvalued.” Really! I wonder what “they’ll be 90 “ when the price was 120 means if that’s not saying that 120 is overvalued. This was a theme you repeated over and over again no matter what the price was, always going down in your incorrect opinion.

Re. Pipeline you repeatedly said won’t open wait until September for contract expiration

On Sunday the day of the amendment before the vote you predicted a punch up and not an agreement.

In short delusional and still here in the hope that doom and gloom will consume us all and you can say “I told you so GKP have gone down” at last from 390 to 310 ( bit more than 90 )

So says the idiot that said (recently) that GKP was overrated and overvalued and worth less than 90p when the price was @120s 130s and 140s. Why because they will never agree to reopen the pipe.

“Life isn’t fair but that’s the reality with investments.” Correct life isn’t fair for fools. It is however for those that did the opposite of what you recommended. Personally I bought in originally for a cor long term as posted here 2023 @ 140p then last year @ 89p 95p 120s 130s and most recently ( all as posted here at the time ) lastly @ 140s in the meantime I made countless day / week trades on the bullish side as the shares increased until Monday @187

Give up and try something easier on your brain.

£3 per share offered today would probably win a very valuable asset, the fact is we live in the present and many of those that purchased long ago in the reasonable belief that GKPs assets would be valued in billions will take that money in preference becoming rich in a cemetery. Personally I’d take my profits and move on as I have in the past with other speculative investments. Sad because approximately 700 million minus net cash of 100 million and the potential of 150 million Debt recovery = a net price of just 450 million a steal. But that’s the way of the corporate world. Can only hope that competition bids the price up to £5. In the meantime I’ll happily hold if the dividends represent 20% + on the cost of my investment as opposed to a yield of say 10% on a longer term share price target ( without a bid ) of 250/80.

The following is a true story regarding OCN an investment that I was called crazy for making (Tugs boats in brazil your nuts Rog) my holding cost 50p each in 1997ish in 2005ish I purchased a Honda accord for my wife @1 million Thai baht about 25k £ but I sold OCN @ £2 therefore the cost of the car was a bargain @£6k net Or it was until OCN (now 12.50 ish) peaked @ over £20 😩for £250k I could have bought myself a Bentley. The moral of the story bring everything’s easy in hindsight. That said I’d like a Yacht and £7 GKP would be nice. Who knows, and we are on a winning path.

Buy it’s a one way bet

Invstrat I had a line of 7 little ducks before yesterday’s 3 were added to make 10 of the 12 I’ll need to be satisfied at this time. The last 2 being the terms of our new deal and the repayment of our arrears. I’ll look forward to posting that completed line of a dozen some time soon.

In the meantime don’t be concerned about Turkey and Iraq disputing a few million dollars here and there, for every dollar that Baghdad might claim Erdogan will counter claim with unpaid pipeline usage fees.

Wow! It that’s anywhere near right (13/19 £ share) I’ll be rich. Or i will if I live long enough, it’s taken the most part of two years to open a simple pipeline.

To be reasonable in a real world we can choose between holding for the yield while we live in the hope of the ‘real’ value bring achieved. Or depending upon our entry price taking profits ( I don’t know about you but profits are what I live on )and spending them while we know we can.

Too speculative to day trade hence all of my positions were closed yesterday. Buy for the medium term below 220 but expect a few down days along the way because these things never happen in straight up and down lines.

Or for those with money to spare and are young enough to wait a while Buy longer for the long term below 280 as and when each stage of more good news appears on the horizon.

Too much volatility for my day trading safety. However been a great few weeks from my buys @135 to 150s to 187 hold

As for my own core holding I’m in it to win it bigger until then I’ll take the dividends.

Hold while the volatility settles

Congratulations to all of those that stuck with this, those that backed their belief that the value of GKP would eventually be realised.

+ 🦆🦆🦆

🦆 agree the contract terms ( decreased risk increased PE )

🦆 agree repayment of arrears ( 57p per share. In part as a dividend reward in part for capital investment)

Will a predator take advantage of the opportunity to strike before profit / dividend stabilisation (18 months or so ) before this is reflected in a share price above the 320 the most recent pre pipe closure peak) I’d expect dividends to reduce in favour of a new field development plan. However, we should be given the 10 million buyback as a dividend in addition to 25 million final ( about 11p per share April. )

Bid price ?

Gas ? ( the value of our gas is not in the share price and Iraq want that gas.

Long and Strong. Personally I’ve been here for long enough to finally believe we’re are approaching a settlement of some kind, exactly what and when we shall see.

In the meantime I’m already up enough to believe that there are opportunities in Kurdistan. So I’ve got an opportunity if anyone out there might know where I can sell 500 oil tankers. I’ll have them lined up alongside a pipe for on-line inspection as soon as the sound of oil can be heard flowing.

If you believe that you’re as crazy as me.

The winners and the losers ? (In my opinion)

No. 1 Winner The powers that be in Baghdad. They’ve seemingly gained financial control of Kurdistan.

No. 2 Loser. KRG The opposite of the above.

No. 3 You and me. We would seem to be caught in the middle, that’s been all too obvious for almost two years. Now on one hand we can pump our oil out, on the other we look like being paid less per barrel. There again we weren’t paid anything for those last few months (57p each share) we might get that, and if course a new fully recognised legal contract reduces risk

Sunday’s vote is more like the the start of the end rather than the end of the beginning.

Buy

Straycat I like the comparison. While I’m too frightened to pay for the agony of fairground rides, as a day trader by private profession I love a ‘rollercoaster’ GKP being my favourite by far this past year and more. Ie. For those that have a very long life expectancy try day trading PHNX. You’ll be the richest person in a cemetery. For those like me (fools on occasion) you only need to look at a two year share price record to see the ups and downs that can be played at risk. However, the rewards can be instant and best of all Spent in the present. (For the record I have a wife and four children to support so come on GKP