Member Info for rogthegamer

While it would be nice to believe that the prospect of a pipeline agreement is a reason for today’s increase, with so many false dawns in the recent history that is unlikely, and Gen. hasn’t increased for that reason or Trump. Plus oil is down today.

So I for one don’t know what lies behind the increase. Do I sell some ?(those purchased with expected dividend funds @125 ) maybe. But I’m still on hold with the bulk, more so in the belief that standing up against Iran Trump style will be easier with a friendly base (Kurdistan) in the region.

I wonder if the powers that be in Baghdad have considered the possibility that by reducing production OPEC members are simply allowing others to sell more for a higher price than they might in a free for all. Shooting themselves in the foot. I say this because of my suspicion that Baghdad don’t seem to be in a rush to sell Kurdish oil at the expense of what they can sell themselves (if their quotes include Kurdish oil exports. )

Confused ? No doubt as much as I’ve become since buying into GKP.

@Putup. We don’t know exactly how much cash is being generated but I wonder if it might be enough to sustain a regular dividend whilst maintaining a c.90/95 million dollar net cash position. My bet, correct this year to date, is that they can and I’ll hold. That said that’s my position knowing my acceptable risk profile, and I can’t speak for others, I will say nevertheless that I wouldn’t be here ( on GKP hold) if I couldn’t afford to take unpleasant occasionally.

By the way the value of GKP cannot be calculated in your the manner of your regular posts

The fact that the share price has held up reasonably this past few months despite what appears to be an embargo on Kurdistan’s oil exports that has continued far longer than imaginable 15 months ago. Fortunately we do have a share of what they call ‘local sales’ and the profits from this are high enough to pay good dividend in exchange for the risk of Iran / Iraq cutting that. As for the buy backs one small purchase was made possibly in order to establish that they ( Peel etc.) have started.

Personally I’ll stay with this for the income and the chance of a resolution

Oh! Spoke too soon, now I do have a little gain.

I’ll call it a just reward for the anxiety that opportunity in the region costs for companies like GKP ( and us as part owners)

As mentioned I purchased at about today’s price an equivalent amount of shares to the value of my forthcoming dividend in the expectation that the buybacks would increase the short term share price. Now I’d say it’s about time that they do what they said they would.

I have half a mind to purchase shares equal in value to my forthcoming dividend payment in the expectation of a shortish term gain as the share buyback kicks in. I’ll decide shortly after the market opens.

I would also like to compliment GKP on the speed of the payment following the original announcement.

A falling share price is of no particular concern for me ( within reason) The company seem to be making the best of a difficult situation, and they do recognise their duty to reward the long term shareholders that are taking a known risk. The 13 or so pence dividend via two interims proves the point, and a nice final is on the cards. With the current low market capitalisation by comparison to the value of the company the share buybacks will increase the long term value of existing holdings via cancellation.

In short I for one am happy to hold despite the risks of a having to operate where fanatics have too much power for their peoples good.

I wonder why institutions that hold GPK in long term funds loan out stock to short sellers, surely this undermines their own position as it becomes in the short sellers interests to ‘talk the price down ‘ in the expectation of repurchasing cheaper.

That said, one of those short sellers made the announcement of plus 05% on the 4th therefore they probably reached that level on the 3rd when the closing price was a little over 119p. Not clever because if they repurchase now they’ll have to pay more, and if they wait they will be in competition with Peel Hunt, and if they wait beyond the Ex.Div. date they’ll gave to pay the dividend to the original owners. Personally I can only hope they’re not gambling with my pension fund because I’d bet they’re not gambling with their own money.

Pipeline is still closed. I’ve just noticed that one of the shorts increased their position on the 4th, very clever.

When I reaffirmed my hold position here last month I said that it was my belief that a Dividend/ Buyback would be announced towards the end of this month, the point when the net cash position will tell us how much money is being generated from so called local sales. Better earlier than later and the increase 28th August 98.2 million dollars to 110 on the 7th October simplistically equates to a cash increase of 295.000 dollars per day for 40 days ( 107 million 365 days )

Personally I’d settle for distributions of 100 million per year while we wait for the pipeline to reopen and the possibility of a near 150 million debt being repaid. Pity about having to operate in a war zone but it’s the risk that has kept the share price down and our yield up. It also keeps this forum interesting for the brave.

Patience ( and balls ) being rewarded

Thanks for your continued and highly valued opinion Belgrano, I hope your right although wars are never for the best in the long term, and those countries that have leaders with evil agendas most often remain poor by comparison with their potential, as we all know, Iraq as a prime for instance.

That said, with so many false dawns in the 18 months that I’ve been a GKP holder I won’t hold my breath regarding a pipeline related capital gain, although I do expect a dividend in excess of that paid by PHNX. It’s the risk, and I hope it proves to be worth waiting.

As a safe good yield, obviously and this share is the bedrock of my portfolio. However, I wouldn’t know what to say on a forum about Phoenix. Whereas GKP’s far more exciting if money’s important, for instance it’s a pity that we seem to be losing one of the rare contributors that seems to understand anything about the underlying issues that surround the pipeline closure etc. perhaps he’ll provide some updates nonetheless.

My own position remains firmly on hold, in more comfort since my wife sold some family land, holding on in the expectation that a few million dollars are being added to a net cash pile that could be distributed in a month or two. In the hope that the pipeline situation will, before dementia sets in, be resolved.

Patients

Thanks for that information, I’m new to this shady area of activity, but learning via my investment in GKP which I have the patience and the risk funds to endure until the outcome, which is close I believe, albeit not for the first time in the year of my involvement.

A question that’s difficult to answer without the benefit of hindsight. On the last occasion that I switched to a buy position when the shares fell to 115 we only had a few weeks remaining before the expected positive results. Fortunately as a day / trader I took a profit @125 within days. Just as well because my expectation of a dividend/ buyback didn’t materialise.

Now with the shares back to 111 or so the same theory has re-emerged, personally I’m not expecting a payout within 10 weeks when the cash position should have increased on ‘local sales’ to the point when a c. 20 million payout would still leave a 100 million net cash position. Unfortunately as a trader I can’t tie up ‘gaming’ funds for that long so I’ll sit on this hold position and review if the price drops further.

With regards to my long term portfolio I wonder if the low international oil price will temp Iraq into making the excuse that Kurdish pipeline sales don’t count with regards to their OPEC quota, although with Bigots in power in Baghdad I won’t be holding my breath.

Straycat

Sows Ear ? If I didn’t believe in the ability of the management or the prospects of the company I wouldn’t have put any money into GKP shares. However, it is a relatively small part of a portfolio. That said, it’s a large part in terms of interest, what would I talk about on a forum like this with regards to my far larger holdings in stable financial institutions etc.

Yes we (GKP) are due 151million, yes the pipeline will open, when ? and before then we are entitled to claim what we’re due. As for keeping some money in cash while so much uncertainty exists, thats wise. ( boring but sensible,) that said I wouldn’t recommend that anyone that can’t afford to lose all of their investment in GKP should hold any shares whatsoever, this is not an investment for the faint hearted or those that don’t have spare funds. It’s a gamble and we are dealing with bigots.

While it may indeed take 5 years or more to ramp up production to 100k bopd current and future share prices factor in the likelihood of what might happen in the future. This is the reason why we can profit from our judgment and those that analyse today’s statistics in great detail rarely put up correct share price estimates, in part it’s sentiment and, especially for GKP etc. guesswork, risks and rewards. ( GKP trades at a lower P.E. than a food retailer or a funeral director for a reason. )

I’m on hold. But 5 years ! Life’s far too short.

GKPs share price has fallen back alongside the fall in international oil prices, clearly the OPEC cuts have not been affective or adhered to. So where does that leave Iraq? Lower prices lower income, lower sales volumes, same again. Will they attempt to stop the export of Kurdish oil and call that a part of their OPEC cut? Personally I’d doubt it even if they could, they’d need to send more of the national budget to Kurdistan or risk internal strife. Will they reduce the Kurdish share of the budget and allow Kurdish pipeline exports by claiming that it wasn’t a part of their quota and therefore shouldn’t be a part of their agreed cuts. I’m won’t hold my breath in anticipation. In the meantime, and within reason, no matter how far GKPs shares might fall, I’m on Hold in the belief that our production numbers will remain high and the so called ‘local sales’ ( smuggling) doesn’t fall back too much. This is a situation that’s positive for GKP. shareholders if all profits above a need to keep a hundred million in cash for a long thunder storm. ( were already in a long Rainy Day period.) are paid as buybacks / dividends.

Depending upon her who must be obeyed’s current requirements, I might change to a Buy position if the share price drops by more than it fairly should.

On Monday the 13th of May the board announced a share buyback because, “ Given GKPs weak share price which the board believes trades at a significant discount to the intrinsic value,” etc.

The price of GKP shares closed on the last trading day prior to that announcement at c. 120p. When taking account of the now lower share count GKPs market capitalisation will now be lower than it was on the 13th of May therefore a question for the board today should be something resembling, ‘if GKP was SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued @120 previously, is it still undervalued? If so when can we expect another buyback?