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PUTUP They do if they increase their short positions again. Clearly they haven’t. Yet.

What Oako. I have just stated the opposite. Read it.

The peshmerga will be expected to control the reemergence of ISIS. Plus the Islamists in now charge of a fragmented Syria will be an enemy of the west if they act in the manner of their brothers in Afghanistan.

In my humble opinion.

In the midst of turmoil yesterday’s strong buying interest in GKP and GENL speaks volumes as a shareholder. Money habitually points in the correct direction.

With Islamists in control of the main part of Syria ISIS will attempt to re-emerge. Having been all but overran by them Iraq will be extremely concerned especially as they can no longer rely on Iran and Russia that have been dealt a huge blow. previously ISIS were territorially defeated by the west with Peshmerga support. There are thousands of ISIS fighters and their families in Kurdish controlled detention camps.

Make no mistake a stable Kurdistan in Iraq has become far more important. Turkey are the new key player and they will need Kurdistan in Iraq and a stable Kurdish region in Syria in their fight against Turkish Kurd terrorists.

Baszan’s position on the world stage has become far more important than a weakened Iraq’s and he, despite public positions, hates the Iranian influence in Iraq as much as they hate him and wish to control Kurdish financial strength. Trump has stated his wish to remove all US forces on land ( they can maintain air power via the British base in Cypress) on the ground the west and, reluctantly Iraq, will require a stronger better armed and paid Peshmerga and Bazani will negotiate from a strong position a better financial deal. That can ONLY come from Kurdish Oil, OURS.

High risk / reward Buy if you have the bottle.

I was wondering if a day trade in the 120s would be a reasonable bet this morning. Then the idiot that’s too poor or weak to take a risk here predicted 120s, and he’s always wrong and the opportunity is yet to arrive.

Now for those that do have a brain. With the price holding up and lots of strong buys under the present circumstances that’s positive for the future of long term holdings, especially when the increased power of Kurdistan kicks in.

Then of course we’ll here no more from it as we haven’t from Putin’s lover. Truthslayer

On my recent post regarding the effects of the situation in Syria I indicated that short term volatility will be followed by a more positive position for GKP. My reasoning being that Assad was falling and the power and influence of Iran / Russia would be reduced and US influence increased. As far as I am aware Turkey need Kurdish assistance in their border area where they are fighting Turkish Kurds. The US will also need support from Kurdish forces against the reemergence of ISIS and Trump will not put more US boots on the ground.

The Iranian influenced in Iraq will want to “screw” the Kurds but there’s nothing new there, apart from the reduced power of Iran

I’ll hold for now and with my day trading cap on look to take advantage of the volatility. But let’s be clear as many of us have said investment in this crazy region are very risky and you should not put your shirt on them, you could end up naked

With apologies for my spelling in a last post that I didn’t have time to edit.

Demise if an enemy + Assad 2 the (Russian ) fleet Have already Fled. 3 Bomb civilians

In short still a buy ( in the increasingly long term, and taking account of some short term volatility)

Sorry it’s a working hour for me, but I’ll take a ‘busman’s’ Break and continue.

Turkey could be the initial winner via the removal of troublesome Turkish Kurds from a border that instantly becomes friendly, and of course the demise of an enemy. With Trump in control of a USA with increasing influence at Russia’s cost, he (Trump) will not put more US boots on Middle Eastern ground, quite the reverse, he will therefore seek increasing assistance from Kurdistan via a very important and more powerfully armed Peshmerga.

The clear loser, already and more than likely, will be Putin’s Russia that invested in 14 years of support for a despot, and the price will include more than lost power and prestige in the region. They will lose a very large and very strategically important naval base in the Mediterranean, ( the fleet gave already fleet) and a large airbase nearby, used to bump civilians because they can’t find their cunning enemy. They have already abandoned several fully intact warplanes when they fled in panic and disarray. Phone! That’s all for now

In my humble opinion.

The situation in Syria will certainly affect Iraq and more so the Kurds. How it will affect Kurdistan and international oil companies in particular is another matter. In the short term the Shias in Iraq that support a weakened Iran will attempt to express their disappointment via Kurdish oil revenues. ( this might have been behind yesterday’s failure to pas the 2nd reading) However, the outcome ( currently, and rapidly becoming very bad for Russia, Iran and Assad in particular) could see Assad fleeing with his illegal I’ll gotten gains, billions accumulated at the cost of mass murder.

The clear and obvious military facts on the ground today point towards the exact opposite of the victorious Russian mostly utube propaganda that only naive idiots would believe and think that I’m stupid enough to take any notice of whatsoever. Check the reality via Al Jazerra if you don’t trust the honesty of the BBC or CNN

To be continued

P. S. ‘Truth’sayer Nuclear War. Putin’s not that crazy. Russia is well within range of superior American weapons, and I’m sure that the U.K.have a sub or two nearby.

The trouble in this world are the likes of North Korea, Iran and Russia.

Finally I live in South East Asia ( out of range and not involved)

‘Truth’sayer. Iran’s wings, Hamas, Hezbollah and Russia have already been clipped, two by Israel and Russia are too bogged down in Ukrainian to support Iran/Assad in Syria. Iran are now all too aware that, given Trumps permission, Isreal would attack them with devastating force.

This will weaken the influence of Iraq’s Iranian supporters, and the importance / strength of the U S in the region grows. This will strengthen the position of there long term friend’s Kurdistan.

I have studied Turkey’s position but it’s too complicated to report

Finally take a look at the share price, if all of the above were a major new rusk factor that would have outweighed the 🦆🦆🦆🦆that are leading to a pipeline settlement.

Buy

Complicated situation in the region but potentially positive in the near term if Iran’s wings are clipped. Also 🦆🦆🦆🦆 in all other areas.

Buy

I did wonder what effect the Syria situation would have, but the lack of a share price movement this morning seems to say, not a lot. If anything it could be a positive reminder to Iraq of the dangers that come with an elegance to Iran and Assad. And of course the U.S. will value a friend (Kurdistan) in the region even more.

While I won’t be a buyer myself, I already have more than common sense dictates, i do nevertheless have reasons based on my research to believe that GKP is potentially worth far more than its current market value, in the event of them being legally recognised by Iraq. I won’t reveal my research results in fear of giving the impression that I’m attempting to ramp up the price, and of course, I used the word “potentially “ advisedly because there are downside risks.

Putup. Your simplistic view that the absence of buybacks is simply because the share price is too high is simply wrong. There is a reason and I was speculating as to what that MIGHT be. I don’t know (yet) and nor do you. Despite the belief that only you know or only you can read.

Straycat I’ll try to make a sensible argument as to GKPs motives for the current buyback, although without inside information I can’t be sure that I’m right. Nevertheless, I believe that it’s simple, it’s the same as it was on the last occasion when they clearly felt that the share price was lower than it should be. On this occasion it started out that way again, then, and in answer to your question as to why aren’t they buying back shares for cancellation at this time, I can only suppose that they were subsequently informed about something price sensitive unknown to ordinary shareholders. ie. If they buy shares from someone that does not have the same information they risk being accused of taking advantage of inside information. ( I wouldn’t like to sell my shares to someone that knows why they’re worth more and when they will be. )

Now I firmly believe that GKP is heading in the right direction towards an agreement that will lower our profit margins on the oil and a lower the corporate risk profile, and that will allow the shares to trade at a higher PE ratio. A higher share price with a lower risk that sensible people prefer. Which is not to say that current holders aren’t sensible, although we are taking a higher risk for which we might be rewarded. It MIGHT be soon, it will be sooner or later.

Invstrat Cynical as usual. While that may well be true in some instances, it’s the idiots that have fanatical beliefs that are our major problem. They don’t care about the loss of billions that could benefit the ordinary people if Iranian / anti Kurd interests aren’t satisfied.

Yes it does seem like we’re approaching a resolution of a kind. Indeed the share price would be higher now but for past high hopes that came to nothing. On the plus side that’ll give the shares further to go when the value of GKP can be accurately based upon the terms of a resolution. Which as the board will know more about than us could be the reason behind the absence of buybacks ( it could also be a strategy whereby all of the 10 million is being held in reserve as a fund to prevent a total meltdown in the event that all of this activity ends sadly.

As sadly as the shorts would like. However, those shorts have sold shares that they will be required to return, their selling would have already satisfied market demand as those shares could gave been purchased by someone that won’t necessarily sell them back again, or not at a lower price. No we’ll never see 120 again least of all 90p

The ‘PUTUP’ position seems to be based on the RNS wording that allows Peel Hunt to purchase shares even if the company are in a closed period or in possession of price sensitive information, if they are not aware of it themselves. But Jjjeeefff you are right to be suspicious as to why they are not buying at the current market price which might never be as low again. Who knows but it is possible that the company are privy to information that prompted them to tell Peel to hold back, who knows, not a know it all that puts up low valuations based upon debatable data alone.

Set against Genel’s positive RNS yesterday’s GKP weakness wasn’t as I expected in terms of one of my regular day trading favourites. No problem I never win them all. Sadly I’m even more confused re. the buybacks. I was assuming that something privately known by the board might be an issue, good if they are privy to good news, but Genel don’t seem to know about anything along those lines.

Oh well if share trading was easy we’d all be millionaires.

I wonder if the 16 dollars per barrel offer is a part of current negotiations that are closer to a conclusion than so many previous false dawns. If there is a genuine possibility of a major development occurring in the very near future, one that the company are well aware of, could this be a reason for not buying shares back even if Peel Hunt etc. are not in the loop so to speak.

I don’t know hense I’m still a working man, that said I wouldn’t like to sell now and be faced by the sight of a two pound share price / 20% yield next month.