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In the usual way of these things agreements are most often a pragmatic compromise made at a lower level leaving the glory of the actual announcement as the gift of the leaders . It will certainly be rare for two leaders to end a grand summit without smiles and a handshake.
Well. Arm.. if that ( “ I’d invest in Russia now if I could” ) is the level of your investment expertise I won’t take any further notice of your posts on here.
I wish, and I’m sure that you’re right. Just a question of when and not if.
That said, and even writing as a bullish ‘long’ shareholder, I must say that many of the politicians in this part of the World are a law unto themselves and their overwhelming priorities might not always be in the best interests of the people that they claim represent, least of all common sense for our Western prospective. Therefore I do wonder if part of the current problem owes much to the Iranian Shia influence in Iraq. Do they detest Kurds in general and some fervently? While Kurdistan had control of their own finances they also had the funds to maintain theIr Peshmerga fighting force which is armed and supported by the West, most especially in the recent ISIS conflict, they still hold thousands in detention without trial. Are those mostly Shia politicians happy that Kurdistan’s revenue in the absence of oil sales is supplied by Baghdad where they have so much power, just enough to prevent civil unrest not too much as when the oil price was exceptionally high. When Turkey do agree to open the pipeline this Iranian Shia Influence will still be maintained as they will be able to exert control over all of Kurdistan’s oil revenue via sales exclusively channeled through SOMO.
It’s a strange World, but in the end money always wins because those politicians value their own luxurious in life and the oil needs to flow for that alone.
Patience still required.
Why would the ruling powers need to run oil companies themselves when they can find foreigners to invest in discovery, development, and production then claim most of the profits?
Patience still required.
Iraq Oil Report 28/6/23
“Cabinet has withdrawn 417 m. U.S. funding for new Southern 500k per day export project etc.”
Was “major step towards easing bottlenecks that constrain Iraq’s production capacity etc.”
I wonder how / where else 500k per day of oil might be exported from, ideas please, although it’s not rocket science.
C***eye
Your prediction, the rise of the East and the demise of the West, says all that needs to be said with regards to the truth in your opinions.
Erdogan has demonstrated similar skill to your Russian, Iranian and North Korean friends with regards to the management of economic affairs and the well-being of the people they exploit.
While I did say that my last post would be my last for a while, sadly I can’t resist this opportunity to respond with regards to a couple of those that waste time that most normal people wouldn’t. Especially with regards to shares that they don’t own.
Terry MCI & C***eye in particular.
First Terry, some people buy shares in high risk / reward companies when they are being sold at low falling prices by those that can’t hold onto them for various reasons, most in fear of losing more money than they can afford. Some people can’t buy these shares because they are too frightened or poor to risk the little that they have, the wimps. By contrast some investors place a small percentage of a total portfolio in shares of this kind after careful consideration of the future prospects because, Terry, the only way to profit is to sell for a higher price than the purchase. At this moment in time most of the sensible people that post here understand that GKP clearly has the potential to become extremely profitable when the pipeline reopens as it will in time ( GKP have the resources to survive well into next year without trucking oil to SOMO which would allow them to survive indefinitely ) in the meantime contrary to the doom and gloom that you foolishly believe I for one are suffering to your obvious sadistic delight, I’m now taking advantage of this wonderful opportunity to buy a few more, all the better if they retreat further ( still within my 10% of portfolio limit.
C***eye. I read / comment on this forum to consider/ discuss sensible points regarding GKP and the politics / technical information that are relive the company. Not to debate with sad idiots that believe Putin is wonderful.
As I’ve said far too much here in the past I’ll make one last post before the shares trade a about 170 or more and I can then say “ I told you the patience was required”
GKP shares have traded in the range 126 - 143 over the past couple of months, up \ down a little following each rumour / news item, plus the oil price \ market itself has been in bear territory. If we step back and consider the overall position, in the recent past the major risk factor for GKP was the probability that Kurdistan would lose the ability to sell it’s oil; during that time high oil price \ dividends kept shareholders happy. But Kurdistan is not an independent state with a sea port of its own,. The fact was that Kurdish oil sales were illegal under International law and that reality has now been legally established beyond doubt.
Kurdistan have now been forced into a ‘climb down’ compromise agreement with Iraq, fortunately this agreement is reasonable under the circumstances. In fact GKP’s position of potentially being a legal supplier of oil via SOMO will remove that major element of risk in the shares, or it will when, in a week or month or so, the oil flows. .
In summary the position is clear, both Turkey and Iraq will attempt to secure a deal that is in their own favour and as almost always happens in these situations a pragmatic deal will emerge because compromise is in the best interests of both parties.
All being well GKP will shortly become a stable profitable company that invests profits into future growth with no need to pay exceptionally high dividends as a high risk company. (Shares trading between 230 \ 330 depending on the oil price and stock market conditions. ) In a best short term case, a small stable / Legal oil producer will be a take over target @ 500, sadly for us the real long term profits will then go to that larger company. In a worst case, a common sense compromise will be lost in a long political ( stupid ) dispute between Turkey and Iraq and a large company with deep pockets will take out GKP’s long suffering shareholders @ 75p or so, and that vulture will make a fortune at our expense when the oil eventually flows as it will.
Goodbye for a while.
The darkest hour is the one before dawn.
Writing as a man of a certain age ( experienced ) who has lived and worked firstly in the city if London, then Africa and in South East Asia, corruption is a Worldwide reality. In the U K we should look no further than the old school boy / Oxbridge upper crust inherited entitlement system that rule over us and not throw stones elsewhere as if more direct forms of corruption are any worse than our own. Why fart against a hurricane, accept the realty if something that you will not change, STOP Winging here and wait for our share of the profits that will come when those that have the power agree to open the flow of money* ( *the oil that is far too valuable to be left in the ground for too much longer. )
Patience still required, but not so much as we’ve past the end of the beginning. Sadly it’s only the beginning of an end that may never arrive short of a bid from our own above mentioned privileged few.
Possible Mulder as the glory of international agreements are most often the gift of those in high office. It was also interesting to see that Barzani was invited to Erdogan’s victory celebration and not Iraq P.M.
all of this seems to be leading to a compromise / pragmatic conclusion as almost always in time.
On the other hand politicians are a breed unto themselves
Yes CCC / BOT Makes sense as the share price is more often than not correct. Your view has now been supported by Reuters reporting that the meet is ‘technical’ one of several and the decisions will be made at a higher political level. That said, a settlement is in all interests and our patience will be rewarded, when? Now that’s another matter.
Today’s opening price hasn’t reflected the optimism here, therefore patience still required, although we are clearly in sight of a solution.
In my simplistic, and perhaps bullish but naive view in terms of religion and politics, calculations regarding how long GKP can survive this shutdown are a waste of effort. Iraq are clearly in need of rapidly increasing revenue with a budget that aims to grow an already bloated civil service in order to provide employment and stability after so many years of senseless turmoil. This genuine desire to enter a new pragmatic dawn, a balance between Iran and the West, relies upon oil price / sales. The fact is almost 1 billion dollars is being lost per month and it’s not in anyones sensible interests to allow this to continue, including Turkey’s.
In the meantime GKP are burning 6 million or so per month and if it does become clear that Turkey will not open the pipeline, (who knows what Putin might be giving Turkey in order to destabilise NATO, certainly oil at a discounted price, ) article 13 of the budget stipulates that an ambitious 400k barrels of Kurdish oil per day should be sold via SOMO into the local market.
I can suppose that GKP could supply 10 / 20 k or so by truck which should cover operating costs indefinitely.
In the long term event that a new pipeline needs to be built and taking account of the proven oil reserves of GKP including the potential of Gas that iraq desperately needs, and the fact that they are seeking foreign investment to replace Gas / Electricity imports from Iran that are sanctioned in terms of payment in dollars, GKP will most likely fall into the hands of a large predator with deep pockets, sadly the institutions will sell for a short term gain, £2 per share I’d guess, however, all being well and if common sense prevails the pipeline will open shortly, GKP will quickly ramp up production to 55k and beyond. The risk factor, we were operating illegally, disappears and the shares will pass 320 before a predator offers 500.
Patience still required and who knows I might buy the new house that my wife dreams about.
It seems that pessimistic reports on this chat of GKP’s impending demise have been greatly exaggerated.
‘ Article 13 of the budget OBLIGES the KRG to hand over at least 400k barrels per day to SOMO to be exported through Ceyhan , OR to be used domestically.’
AGM Update “ We are now exploring potential options to sell our crude to local buyers.” * “ Logistics in place to QUICKLY restart trucking operations. “
No ! that really would be C***eyed. I don’t keep my brains in my short trousers; I came in here a couple of months ago at a little more than the current price and I doubt that I’ll have to wait another 11 Weeks before I take some profits and do what I do, move on to another opportunity. Currently looking at SLP for 6 to 11 months or so, some of the that winter spent in the Sun on the GKP pessimists that sold in April
C***eye 10 years ! In GKP wow, but has GKP lost 94% in those ten years. I don’t believe ‘short trousers idiots’, would suffer that, no wonder you’ve lost hope.
C***eye are you serious? You’ve been nothing but one of the pessimists, no need to name them as they know who they are, those that obviously don’t have the patience or the balls to hold high risk shares of this kind. This was never a gamble for those with the sense to use it as a reasonable part of a diversified portfolio. As a genuine ‘bull’ I came in after the line closure and I’ve said all along that it would be a question of when the pipeline opens and not if. Then patience will still be required while we wait to discover the terms of a new contract with SOMO and of course the time line regarding missed/late payments that, once again, will be when and not if because, ( pessimists, ). Like it or not Iraq needs WESTERN investment.
C***eyed theory. The fact is the Soviet Union has collapsed with most of their former members enjoying greater wealth in the EU and NATO, the standards of living in the west have increased while they deteriorated in the East. Freedom to write what we like, here for instance, is something that the people in Iran /Syria / North Korea / Russia etc envy and practice at their peril. As for Iraq, yes the west committed crimes that we should be ashamed of and resentment exists but they are far better for the defeat of ISIS something that the Kurds should be proud of.
Yes freedom does allow all manner of eccentric behaviour, some not to my taste but far better than being poisoned for airing decent in public or hanged as an example to others for daring to protest in favour of equal rights for women.
Be careful what you wish for, but personally I’ve done rather well as a capitalist and I wouldn’t swop my life expectancy with Putin, Would you?
C***eyed pessimism. Like it or not the vast majority of the world’s wealth is in the West and Iraq would be foolish to push Western companies out unfairly when they still require western investment, protection from ISIS etc. and access to the Western market place. Also, and as China clearly knows, 100% backing those that support Putin is a very risky strategy, a despot who foolishly believed Ukraine would fold in less than a week and the west wouldn’t dare to support them.