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Armasmaximilian.
Sadly itâs more than likely that your hero Putin would have been asking Iraq to reduce oil sales in order to support a higher price for Russian oil in order to fund the invasion of an independent country. The easiest way for Iraq to comply being to stop the export of Kurdish oil and force them to sell it on a local market at an unfairly discounted price.
Wrong !
I was brought up to believe that âtwo wrongs donât make a right.â But what did the leaders of Hamas think would happen in Gaza when they decided to send out their fanatical followers on a mission to murder as many innocent people as they could come across ( Genocide. ) Knowing as they surely did how Israel would respond they had no concern for the fate of their own people. That said there can be no justification for the murder of innocent people as an act of revenge, indeed itâs idiotic because it simply breeds more discontent in the minds of another fanatical generation.
Straycat.
As you say we âshould stick to the fundamentals.â Which in my opinion are excellent, and I have put, what for me, is a very large sum of my hard earned money behind that view. Therefore I will hold until the â cream rises to the topâ as it inevitably will in time. My problem however has now become the time that my mind has become focused on so many crazy political issues and âwill it or wonât it â thoughts, endless speculation and false dawns. One day pipeline prospects are improving, the next they are dashed. In the meantime other investment opportunities exist and with all of my higher risk capital deployed in GKP, they could be opportunities lost, indeed one has been. In that respect the price I paid for GKP between April and September (average 120 or so ) is not the problem, the problem is that the 120 x !!! k came from selling an interesting Brazilian stock for 35% less than they are today. The cost of my winter in the Sun.
Good luck to all that stick with this, you will deserve it.
Roger
This situation is far more complicated illogical and confusing than I could ever have imagined it might be when I purchased my initial speculative holding in GKP. In some respects Iâm beginning to regret doing so, not because I believe that there will not be a very good return when , and no if, this is resolved as best it will ever be, ( in time ) but because Iâm now finding myself spending far too much time thinking about Middle Eastern politics and stupidity at the expense of my other investments and opportunities. While Iâll keep an eye on here in the hope that Iâm informed as soon as actual events occur, the time to step back, sit on my holding and try to be patient has arrived. In the meantime Iâll attempt to avoid reading the endless idiotic speculation both optimistic and pessimistic, itâs a waste of time, yours and mine.
While it remains the case that itâs when the oil will flow and not if it will be interesting to see how the stock market reacts to what might be another false dawn. In the meantime I wonder if there are powerful people in Iraq who are happy to see Kurdistan supplying discounted oil onto their local market , especially those that therefore have more oil in Southern Iraq that can be exported @ more than twice the price.
Itâs always been âdown to the stubbornness of the politicians.â
Clearly my post on Monday following the 26% share price increase to 128 /30. ( Patience Rewarded ) was premature, albeit written from the prospective of a share trader who came in after the pipeline closure buying in separate lots between 160 and 86 @ an average price of 124. I will therefore return to my previous position of âPatience Requiredâ as Iâm back in a negative area. However, I have revised my initial intentions, partly based upon useful information kindly provided here, albeit alongside an abundance of crap. I now believe that GKP has massive upside potential, plus with the benefit of a strong balance sheet and local sales, the risk profile has been reduced to the point where I have switched my holding out of a short term trading account into a medium term growth fund, and with a clear dividend potential that might in time allow me to switch again and hold the stock long term in my income portfolio. In that respect I have been greatly encouraged by the stance that APIKUR seem to have taken regarding future payments and past arrears ( including 50p + per share to GKP ) by working together it will be difficult for Iraq to replace all of those companies as new western investors would regard that example as being a reason to be cautious with regards to any new investments in Kurdistan / Iraq.
Finally, reading between the lines of the APIKUR statement, would I be right to assume that they are claiming their right to withhold the 64% percentage due to Kurdistan on local sales for repayment of past money owed. ( ie are our local sales @ 30 dollars now ânetâ in advance as opposed to âgrossâ (36%) ?? A vast difference in terms of current profitability )
Patience still Required
Mulder Has the market factored in another 400k barrels per day ? Even so Saudi Arabia / Russia seem determined to maintain a high price and Chinese demand is increasing.
Put Up. ÂŁ3 seems reasonable by comparison with that same price last year when production was c45k barrels and the yield was around 20% especially if the risk profile decreases with Iraqâs agreement for exports on existing contract terms and production hits 55k + barrels progressing towards 80k. Plus we are owed more than 100 million. Although GKP will probably reduce dividends in favour of FDP investment, that or become a target for a major with greater investment resources @ cÂŁ5 )
In short GKP will still be a buy in my book @ 160 + later this week when the pipeline is open. All of that said we can only hope this latest reason for optimism doesnât turn out to be yet another False Dawn.
JAdams No I for one will not be surprised if the share price drops back, this is a dream share for traders and almost 10 million have been traded today with the buyers betting on making a profit beyond the 127 / 129 they paid today.
In the meantime I for one and lots of the sensible regulars here can wait for what does seem to be inevitable; ie. GKP continues to operate at a small profit until the politicians do reach an agreement and the price returns to 200 +
Pincer You might be right. On the other hand those that have taken a negative view on this over the past couple of months and sold for between 81 and 100 were wrong and todayâs price increase has been substantial, albeit from a low start by comparison to the historical price, Iâd say todayâs movement is strong enough to be believable and if the price does drop as it might on profit taking that will simply be a buying opportunity
Roxi. Yes with âthe green light from the Iraq Federal Governmentâ GKP and all IOCs operating in Kurdistan will be âlegalâ and therefore less risky as investments as opposed to the situation prior to the pipeline closure. Under those circumstances it will be reasonable to assume that should GKP produce the same amount of oil at a similar price (c95 ) the share price will be higher than it previously was. (c220 / 320 ) perhaps 400 or so, however, a certain amount of risk will still be present with regards to Iraq in itself and the full value 500 + probably wonât arrive. That said is the market fully aware of the fact that GKP can now produce 55k barrels per day and potentially 85k without too much more investment, rising to 100 / 120 barrels in the existing FDP. There will also be the possibility of exploiting proven gas reserves, although that might only happen if a larger oil company steps in taking advantage of the certainty that GKPs major shareholders will no doubt sell before the price truly reflects all of the companies vast potential.
Yes Mulder GKP are owed a lot of money, or i should say as share holders we are owed a lot of money, but the only way that this will be paid, as it was in the recent past alongside a high oil price, is by shipping the oil and trusting the KRG.
Todays share price increase indicates that the market believes the Turkish oil minister, but itâs not a fact so when the oil actually flows a more sustainable increase will follow as the price today will be impacted by those that purchased between 85 / 100 take their short term gains.
Patience Rewarded ! Two words that Iâve been looking forward to writing for far too long. That said, this is only the first stage of the recovery and the oil flow has yet to be guaranteed.
Well done to those that stuck with what always seemed to be a logical outcome and have recommend GKP as a buy while the pessimists and doom mongers on this forum had far too much to say.
The Iraq Oil report 30 /9 /23. Iraq are taking enforcement measures regarding the international court judgment by claiming 601 million dollars, which they believe signals that no diplomatic solutions have been found despite recent discussions. We can only hope that Turkey will see this as a reason to do a deal and not as a reason to argue and delay in an American court.
In the meantime GKPs only option should be to ramp up production and sell as much as possible for the best price achievable.
Patience still required.
Blumagnet. Stock markets have a long history of over and under valuing shares, thatâs how money is made and of course one personâs gain is anotherâs lose. In this case GKP âcould beâ massively undervalued and those that are selling at this time âmight beâ making a mistake. On the other hand the sellers âcouldâ be right and we âmightâ be wrong.
Could it be that we never have the pipeline opening announcement that has for so long been at the top of our wish list. Instead all sides might now agree to the âtestâ and that flow continues while a face saving agreement is gradually put into place, perhaps with the first sales receipts being used to the oil the palms of those that might need to be â brought on side.â
That or will patience still be required while we continue local sales indefinitely?
The mood on this forum is certainly positive and it does seem that âthereâs no smoke without fireâ as the share price is moving in the right direction.
As for the here and now disregarding the obvious potential. Please forgive my maths but 36 % of 33k barrels per day @ 30 dollars = about 10 million per month less 6 million basic costs = a profit of about 50 million per year. Forget the potential and by comparison with a market capitalisation @ 110 of 250 million the shares are a bargain on that alone, never mind the potential.
A little patience still required
theoryman. fine in theory but when it comes to common sense and logic middle eastern politicians become mired in a sea of self interest, religious lunacy and ****** / tribal agendas. that said at the end of the day money rules the world and it does seem that a pragmatic face saving solution is close. in the meantime, and as most sensible people on this forum seem to believe, gkp can survive and even return to small profits.
patience still required
Something seems to be happening behind the scenes. Are we close at long last?