Member Info for rogthegamer

RIDER75. How kind many thanks, and yes we’re all fine. My eldest son and daughter share a 43rd floor condo, it swayed a bit but was declared safe for the night, fortunately as I had to stay there, with public transport shut I couldn’t return to a suburban house that I share with my younger children and wife.

Another bump along the way, I should have expected something of the kind, should’ve but didn’t at the cost of a trading opportunity, never mind another might materialise on Monday.

Talking of bumps, my office is in a Bangkok high rise, but that’s not a story for this forum, that said it only goes to show how surprising life can be.

If the Ponzi is an idiot with nothing better to do than post negative news here or if it might be a tool to create negativity is of little consequence, it’s lost all credibility because it’s persistently wrong.

That said It might tell us that it’ll snow tomorrow, and repeat that prediction every day until May when it snows and it’ll say. “There I told you so, who else predicted snow in May, only me I’m so clever.

Yes Ms Ponzi the share price did 90, the time when I doubled my long term holding in the expectation that the pipeline would open. You meanwhile were predicting further price falls.

No I’m not a dreamer I’m living off what I do and in that respect GKP ( I came in after the pipeline closure but knew about the potential if an opportunity earlier. ) have delivered both on a trading Kevlar and as an investment to date. Meanwhile and all the while that the price if GKP was rising you were predicting falls and more falls, as you still are. When will you accept you’ve been entertaining me as my fool on here.

Should be “ in the hope that unknown people here — will lose”

No need to rush into an unsatisfactory agreement when we’re doing okay as we are; the share price has more than doubled since the Ponzi prediction that 90 pence was too high and going lower. We’ve ( not Ponzi ) had 20 pence in dividends plus a 10 million buyback inc. the 8p or so just declared.

Who in their right mind would expect all of our unpaid invoices to be recovered in full before the pipeline opens, an agreement to repay this over a year or two will be reasonable under the circumstances. All other outstanding issues don’t appear to be major and it does seem that we’re very close to resuming international sales, BP will certainly expect the pipe to be open when they start pumping Kirkuk oil into the European market.

While much of the increase due in the share price is already factored in I’d expect 230/50 on resumption of exports / receivables payment schedule. Then with an agreement in place much will the depend upon company plans / performance / international oil price, and the Middle Eastern situation overall. The previous peak of 320 seems to be an achievable expectation, and if the political situation stabilises as seems likely a bid premium could take the shares higher, as could the exploitation of our gas reserves. However the most likely outcome would be a bid.

So Ponzi what do you get if your it will never happen doom and gloom predictions are right. Nothing I’d suppose. What’s the point of proving anything to anonymous people. If I’m right however I’ll get the new yacht I’d like. I could be wrong but who’d be so stupid as to put too many eggs in one Middle Eastern basket. ?

Get a life and move on, find something else to do in mummy’s house. Life’s too short to waste in the foolish hope that unknown people here will, in fact some of us have already come out ahead.

After Qube, Citadel and Walleye walked away counting their losses we now have Ac——- partners that would seem to have sold approximately 1.1 million borrowed shares when the market price was mid 180s or lower. Personally I wouldn’t like to be in their shoes if a pipeline agreement emerges shortly. I’d estimate that they’re already 10% down if not more depending upon their average price ( not a small amount, 180 thousand pounds or thereabouts )

Someone will be worrying about their Christmas bonus already, if not their job. Sadly as I recall from my own city days Old Etonians stick together ( and I wasn’t one of them )

Well I must say that it was nice to be wrong, and I don’t mind admitting to it. While I do like the dips as a trader I hold a relatively large long term position here.

I wonder if Ponzi will admit that he was wrong once again. No he’ll be crying in his vomit and hoping for the moment when it can say “I told you so” when we drop from 340 to 290 perhaps.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the sell on the news side win the day today because the buy on the rumours ( pipeline ) have pushed some of us into profit that can be taken.

My automatic time related sell on recent 181 /183 positions kicked but I’ll consider new positions if the price does what Ponzi wants in the belief that we’ll all lose as it hopes.

It’s not all about the pipeline because GKP is profitable as it is, that said the negotiations seem to be progressing towards a conclusion that will add value, how much we shall see.

Hold on or buy on a dip.

Personally I’d have said as expected with a dividend at the lower end of expectations. However and without including the benefits from the imminent pipeline opening the bottom line figure would support a higher share price, or it would had GKP not been regarded as high risk. Therefore I’d expect a reduction today and further increases based upon the results of current negotiations.

Patience still required

In my own opinion, with much of this obvious.

1) Turkey. Erdogan has established the dominant position in the region following Iran’s weakness and the Russian expulsion from Syria. The western world are, despite the Islamist regime, backing Syria where Turkey are pulling the strings.

Trump would like to remove U.S. forces from Northern Syria and they could be replaced by Turkish forces in order to assist the Kurdish forces against ISIS in Rojava. Turkey in turn would like the oil in the Kurdish territories of northern Syria. The Turkish/ Kurdish rebels the PKK have ceased fire in advance of negotiations heralding peace in the region. Meanwhile Iraq need Turkey for gas / electricity / water and Turkey would like oil from Kurdistan. The USA need a friendly base in the region and that can only be Kurdistan where they already have their largest diplomatic presence and the Peshmerga.

2) Iran’s power has been diminished as a result of their foolish attempt to attract Israel, hence Hamas and Hezbollah have been clipped and the Houthi’s are next in line. However importantly the Iraqi Shia militias are also being targeted by Trump and Iraq will no longer be allowed to export Iranian oil as their’s, Iran meanwhile fear sanctions that could be the cause of unrest if not an uprising and they will be dragged kicking and screaming into negotiations with the ‘ hated’ West.

In short the beneficiaries will include western nations investing in Kurdistan, and where BP tread others will follow.

3) GKP the FDP up to 120k barrels might benefit from say 30 million dollars per year for 5 years repayment if arrears and increased income from secure contracts. While risk will still exist the omens are positive, although in the real world minnows like GKP take the risks and get taken out when the giants see an opportunity to profit in the long term because our shareholders will take a relatively low offer, as I will because I live in the present and a bird in hand can be better than two in a bush.

Hold ( to be revised on Thursday)

Invstrat While large scale corruption certainly exists in Iraq, as it does everywhere including the U.K. where, for instance, Covid supply contracts worth millions were given to ‘friends’ and the old school network favours the establishment. It’s more than possible that the most part of the near one billion dollars not paid to IOCs was used to pay ordinary workers. At that time Baghdad were not transferring funds. Also your constant complaining about corruption is becoming a bore. It’s the way of the world everywhere and if your not getting your share tough.

Patience please because a few more days or weeks of negotiations should be expected after two years of bickering and false dawns.

It seems that patience is the order of the day. Time to consider my own long term position in GKP ( not too long as I’m a bit on the old side.) Following the recent near defeat of Iran’s Hamas & Hezbollah and the expulsion of Iran / Russia from Syria / Lebanon, one potentially positive result could be achieved if the current pease deals including Turkish Kurds PKK laying down their arms and the deal between Sharaa in Damascus and the Kurdish SDF. COULD it BE that a peaceful greater Kurdistan with Erbil at its centre blossoms where Western investors feel, reasonably, safe. Will the new power in the region Turkey cooperate with the USA taking over security including ISIS control on Trumps behalf. Will Iraq move on pragmatically leaning more more towards Turkey / the West and not going down alongside Iran ( how long will it be before the Iranian people rebel against tyrants that prefer glory in their fanatical heaven than providing for their own people on Earth. )

Just an idle thought.

Results / Pragmatic deal Soon?

Confirmation of that BP deal can only mean that Iraq have provided assurances regarding the export of Kirkuk oil which, on a map, looks like it must exit via a pipeline to Turkey ( we do know of one )

Re. The Trump effect. This seems to be the final push that the fanatics in Baghdad needed to do what they don’t want to do, ie. anything that the West and Kurdistan want under orders from their friends in Iran. The market seems to be happy to hold onto the recent gains made based on the belief of a positive outcome. How much the reality of positive news makes we shall soon see. In the meantime the March 20 results will keep us sweet if we’re still waiting patiently for those last little ducks to line up.

Apologies hit button twice 🤓

M. Belgrano. While I’m pleased to recall the informative posts from your recent past, this last few, seemingly after you sold as you mentioned, have been cynical to some degree. Yes the fact that the Iranian supporting side in power in Iraq hate anything western including Kurds, yes they shut the pipe by legal means in order to gain financial control of Kurdistan, and yes they’d love to kick us all out.

However sometimes compromise can be wise, like it or not. The fact is if Trump sticks to his declared aim to squeeze Iran. 1 by not allowing gas / electricity to be purchased from Iran. 2 Enforcement via sanctions on Iraq that could hit their oil industry very hard. Including stopping Iranian oil from being exported as Iraq’s. The seizure of ships carrying suspected Iranian oil, there’s a long list of Trumps powers that could potentially include allowing Kurdish independence if Turkey agrees. The last thing that Iraq want. ( Trump has just sent a squadron of attack helicopters to Iraq, Kurdistan of course, equipped with Israeli munitions. )

In short Iraq will compromise they have little choice. Agreement In Sight.

M. Belgrano. While I’m pleased to recall the informative posts from your recent past, this last few, seemingly after you sold as you mentioned, have been cynical to some degree. Yes the fact that the Iranian supporting side in power in Iraq hate anything western including Kurds, yes they shut the pipe by legal means in order to gain financial control of Kurdistan, and yes they’d love to kick us all out.

However sometimes compromise can be wise, like it or not. The fact is if Trump sticks to his declared aim to squeeze Iran. 1 by not allowing gas / electricity to be purchased from Iran. 2 Enforcement via sanctions on Iraq that could hit their oil industry very hard. Including stopping Iranian oil from being exported as Iraq’s. The seizure of ships carrying suspected Iranian oil, there’s a long list of Trumps powers that could potentially include allowing Kurdish independence if Turkey agrees. The last thing that Iraq want. ( Trump has just sent a squadron of attack helicopters to Iraq, Kurdistan of course, equipped with Israeli munitions. )

In short Iraq will compromise they have little choice. Agreement In Sight.

While the market’s not indicating a direction one way or the other beyond the recent drop related to oil price uncertainty, the need for patience has never been so important. Iraq have made too much noise for this to be cancelled with all of the blame falling on the IOCs. Trump wouldn’t be impressed. Therefore I’d say this is a trading opportunity and no matter what the results of today’s meeting might be, within reason, agreeable terms will follow sooner rather than later.

Hold on now’s not the time to cut and run with a smaller profit than MIGHT be patiently acquired. This is the Middle East and risk remains, as it always has, albeit not so much.

With negotiations set to resume on Thursday, and no doubt with positions being reassessed on both sides in between now might be an opportunity to trade during a dip. We shall see but the situation certainly favours the brave.

Like a vulture couldn’t wait to mention a drop in price. ( ‘to’ as in to go towards and not ‘too’ as in too soon. Education.