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Time to revise my buy below 160 recommendation

Buy while you can below 200 ( sadly for those that missed my previous posts , including my strong buy recommendations

@ 89 /95 followed later by buy @130s the largest retail gains gave been made ) the next steps will be institutional investors with lower risk profiles buy above 200 when some profits are being taken. Followed by more ambitious investors that, like me, believe BP and GKP will be a logical fit. However, for those very long term holders that gave stated their view of GKPs asset value being measured in billions and not hundreds of millions. BP or whoever that might be will only pay what they need to in order to gain the required majority and, as I mentioned 350/ 520 will be temptation enough.

Patience Rewarded ? almost I’d. Say

Hi Starsalign thanks. No I didn’t know that there are two separate pipes. However and correct me if I’m wrong, but assuming they both cross Kurdistan I’d assume that they will both require Kurdistan’s approval.

Re GKPs price on a bid. Sadly no matter what the assets are said to be worth the buyer would only need to bid a price that the majority will take for reasons of their own. ? 350/500 ?

Hi Himzy Agreed the assets look very valuable and GKP might be worth more than a major will need to pay if enough of us sell too cheap for profits today. However, the main point of my post today is simply that BP will need a route to export the oil that they produce in Kirkuk and the ONLY way out is via Kurdistan along the pipe that’s in our best interest to be open.

Hi Long. Strong / My last quid. Had I been invested here for 10 years I might not be so happy with 3/5 pounds on a takeover, however, as an elderly feller that lives in the present ( long term doesn't exist for me ) I came in @ c 140 after the pipeline closed, topping up @ 89 and @ 95 along the way I’ll be more than satisfied with 3/5 times my money plus the dividends and day trading profits in between. That said, i’m not selling my core holding that @ my entry price should yield 20/25 % on “local sales” alone .

Far be it from me to honestly speculate where I stand to profit. But I took a look at a map where Kirkuk is situated on a disputed Kurdistan border. BP are, supposedly, set to sign final agreements with Iraq regarding a ‘Production Sharing’ agreement where the product will need a route to the EU / Turkey market. The pipe of our interest. While that says enough on its own I will add that GKP, the owner of huge nearby oil and gas reserves, could become a tasty morsel.

Personally I’d start negotiations @ 350, expect 400 and would be very gappy with 500+.

One can dream.

Putup’s less than optimistic calculations might be based upon technical evidence, and that offers balance to the view of GKP bulls like me. However, the notion that Trump doesn’t give “a flying ****” about Iraq / Kurdistan is not correct. On the contrary his past record re. the region, especially Iran tells a different story and the current agreement between Iran’s two military arms wasn’t the result of Iran wanting to back down against Israel. They gave up in fear of pushing Israel too far if the US give them permission to attack Iran directly. Something more likely under Trump.

As for Iraq’s position while the Shia’s are still holding on to their position of influence Turkey are gradually becoming the power in the region. Turkey’s foreign minister isn’t in Baghdad today with a begging bowl, he has demands.

“That pipeline will re-open sooner or later. There’s too much money a stake.”

Absolutely, although later would seem to be what the Shia Muslims that influence the major decisions in Iraq are pushing for in their desire to control those ‘nasty Kurds’ and not with the best interests of the people in mind.

In the meantime the position of the Kurds is strengthening due to the possibility of an agreement between Turkey and Syria whereby the Northern oil fields in Kurdish territory will be developed on Turkey’s behalf. That oil, in the long term will need to be pumped out via a pipeline with the most efficient route being ‘our pipeline ‘ There is of course another dispute regarding oil production in Kirkuk, disputed Kurdish territory, that Iraq via their North Oil company have been unable to exploit without the resources of a ‘oil major’ Enter BP in negotiations that have yet to be finalised. Again the most efficient export route is ‘our pipe’

So in short hold with 13/15% dividends 2025 while the fanatics argue and vast sums are being made by Kurdish businessmen, millions via so called ‘local sales.’

Buy below 160

I have taken the time to read that entire article and in my mind the writer seems to be living in a recent past when Iran called the tune in the region, and while Iranian supporting Iraqi politicians still hold onto power, Turkey have replaced Iran at the top of a tree that now includes Syria and its northern Kurdish oil fields where U S forces remain. Erdogan has already mentioned his desire to develop those oil fields with production linked to the Kurdistan/ Turkey pipeline.

While the dispute rumbles on I for one will be content to receive c21/ 24 pence dividends from so called ‘local sales’ that should increase in price over time as the efficiency improves.

Buy below 160 and hold in the knowledge that Trump will not let the Iran off the hook, and of course their supreme despotic leader is a very old man.

Having consistently said “buy below 160” the results confirm this in my humble opinion.

In the event that a reasonable pipeline open deal is signed off with the Iraqi government’s agreement I believe that the lower risk factor will be positive for the share price even in the event that dividends fall in preference to capital spending for production and profit increases in the long term.

However, let’s look at this in reality, the present while the fanatics in Baghdad argue amongst themselves. My ‘back of an envelope’ quick calculations indicate that # with capital spending @ c70 million dollars 2025 a net cash income of c65 million can be distributed thus leaving the net cash position level @c100 million January 2026. In that case @ 160 the yield during 2025 could be c13% @ 21 pence per share in total.

Therefore Buy for a net 13% yield with the bonus of that elusive agreement not if but when.

Too hot to handle buy premium bonds instead and let inflation eat your money.

👍🏻 Just -Another-Bot. + 🦆

🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆

Well Mr Ponzi in disguise. Apparently I have “little or no knowledge of how Iraq ( should be plural, poor education) politics work.”

Well clever dick when you were as always recommending sell @90p I was doing exactly what in said on several posts here at the time, Buying for my long term position currently on hold. Plus between 89 and 130s buying and selling in the manner of my day trading roots. At a time when you were constantly saying Sell. (Because you’re so clever)

So Mr. Con man while you are wasting time here for reasons of a sad mind and no financial gain, I’ve been using the time to gain while I try to understand the politics.

Itsabouttime you left your mum’s home and comfort food. In short Get a life.

Itsaconman that lacks the brain of its Ponzi hero.

As for “nothing ever being resolved” well I am pleased that ‘It that is always wrong’ has made that prediction. Therefore I’m confident that enough of Iraq’s MPs will be dragged screaming to a vote, today maybe. Some time soon for sure.

Buy on any further weakness.

Vote scheduled for Tuesday. Well if today’s opening price is s guide I’d say probably not.

It is nevertheless getting closer.

Buy below 159

With so many indications of a pipeline and contract resolution in ‘the pipeline’ so to speak. That’s certainly being reflected in the recent share price movement. I wonder if this might be an opportune moment for a predator to step in before GKP can be accurately valued via new circumstances. There may well be a number of shareholders, some regulars here including me, that might take their ‘jam today’ in preference to ‘caviar sometime maybe never’

Now what more can I think of that might ramp this up on a day when, as a day trader, I can see some profits being taken.

P.S.

Would BP have committed themselves to investing millions into the renovations of 4 Kirkuk oil fields if they had not been given assurances regarding the route out of Iraq to Western Europe for the oil produced ? Any answers apart from the obvious existing pipeline via Kurdistan and Turkey.

+ 🦆.

According to my own analysis the current situation in the Middle East is moving towards a period of relative stability ( stable there is far from stability elsewhere) Israel has cut Iran’s wings and the threat of losing their head has dented their confidence. Into the gap steps Turkey taking advantage of Russia’s weakness. Turkey wants rid of the PKK followed by good relationships with the Kurds that control, with US assistance Northern Syria where their oil is.

In short Iraq reluctantly need the west because nowhere else has the ability to support their physical needs in a world where religious beliefs don’t put food on the table.

In short the risk profile in the region is improving in the eyes of the institutions that move money around the world in quantiles that make a difference to living standards. While GKP remains high risk / reward more institutional money seems to have been heading our way. For reasons that should make potential sellers think twice. HOLD

P.S.

🙏🏼 Miracles in cases of this kind don’t simply happen, they are the result of knowledge, research, feelings based upon experience and the strength required to back judgment in a high risk situation. Ie. Some of us will deserve our reward and one in particular will no doubt find another set of investors to troll in a sad life.

🦆🦆🦆🦆🦆

Sell on the rumours buy on the fact. Or Buy on the rumours and sell on the fact. In this case the later I’d suggest. Personally I’m on hold because all of the high risk percentage of my portfolio has already been allocated to GKP. However, should the risk profile reduce in the current positive belief that a best case scenario imminent and GKP could become a good high yielding stock to counter falling interest rates. In which case extra funds could be allocated even if the price increases when and not if a new contract is deemed to be reasonable on all sides and sustainable in terms of a long term investment.

GKP is certainly looking LongStrong. but yes the price should be 200 + as valued via a P.E. that fairly reflects the risk inherent in the region, albeit a situation moving in our favour and against Iran influenced forces in Baghdad. Therein lies the intriguing fact that BP are heading our way big time because the Kirkuk oil fields have been neglected and require western expertise and resources to bring it back on stream. BP will not enter into a profit sharing agreement that is so one sided that they would accept 7 dollars No they will want more than the 20 muted for GKP Also importantly the pipe from Kirkuk is the subject of our interest.

Personally, I’m old, I’d prefer jam today via a reasonable take over ( £5+)

Amor 77. Apart from a light hearted chance to rib an idiot, I couldn’t care less what its might write.

As for the direction of GKPs situation, one step at a time. Personally I’ll be okay with dividends on ‘local sale’ profits until the pipeline open, if and when that might be, and in that respect it’s positive according to the share price now. However, I’d hold above 160 but that’s under my circumstances and we all differ in those.

In my humble opinion if GKP accept a lower price for our oil in exchange for the security of a new contract I’d think about taking profits @ 220. If however the new contract guarantees repayment of debts equal to 57p per share I’ll expect 260 ish. Then I’ll hold on to a few in the hope that production goes well and the dividends are not reduced for long term capital investments taking the shares towards the previous high if 300. In my dreams however, I can see a BP in Kirkuk that might like the look of nearby GKPs vast reserves of oil and gas that @ 500 will be a bargain for them, and a long awaited replacement for my little motor yacht.