Member Info for rogthegamer

Status Quo were my favourites when many moons ago I drove into the city very early and needed a wake call that instantly fired me up for the day ahead. I never made money for nothing, never have, never will including GKP, and the chicks that I knew at the time were far from free. Shows my age I’m afraid.

Another purchase, but not enough as we’re allowing the shorts a cheaper exit. One in particular that have reduced by another 220.000 k shares (0.79% to 0.69% from 0.89% last week.)

If the market’s weak alongside lower oil prices this should be the time to be bold and buy in the event that this week’s meeting doesn’t end in another false dawn.

I got it wrong yesterday regarding my assumption that GKPs share price would increase late in the trading day. I’d make the same call today if I could rely upon Peel Hunt to do what they have been hired to do, buy shares that the company believe are undervalued. Their purpose is to push the price up to a point where the company feels they should be. If they don’t purchase a more significant amount today when the price is weak are they failing in their contracted duty? However, the less they pay the more shares they can buy for 10 million dollars, if they can spend that much before the June 21st. AGM. If not we have the right at the AGM to wonder why.

As most of us have been avid followers of the ‘GKP situation’ we’ve become immune from over reactions to news, or false dawns as we call them, now it seems that the market hasn’t responded as it previously did on promising statements from Iraqi politicians. On this occasion they are in effect claiming that we will resolve the pipeline issue in a meeting with the KRG & IOCs this week. I’ll believe that when it happens.

In the meantime “it’s not all about the pipeline” because for as long as the current circumstances prevail GKP is making profits that we have no particular use for; ie we have enough money in the bank for our current purposes, we have no debts and our invoices are up to date. Share buybacks were a good idea in terms of highlighting the value in our shares @130s / 40s, however 150 k shares or so per day won’t be enough to spend 10 million dollars by the 21st. Under those circumstances a dividend could be paid instead, and if you believe that this wouldn’t be wise you don’t have to take the money because it could be reinvested (a share buy back of our own )

As a day trader there’s money to be made from price weakness in the mornings ( there will be today IF Peel Hunt for once buy the 500k required of them today.

Belgrano it seems that you wouldn’t trust the word of an Iraqi politician as far as you could throw one. But yes you’re right, and no doubt with the benefit more inside knowledge of the region than I have. Thanks for sharing your wisdom.

My previous hold ( after posting my buy advice between April 23 when I first became a GKP shareholder and last month when I downgraded to hold ) position was calculated on there not being a pipeline dispute resolution.

Now I’ve concluded that ‘there can’t be so much smoke without a fire’ ie. there’s something happening that’s for sure. That being so I won’t consider 160 as a profit taking opportunity; I’ll consider 240 with the pipe open on reasonable Pragmatic terms.

Hang in there folks

Straycat ; during the last couple of weeks P.H. have only been able to buy 25% of the total amount agreed , it seems it’ll be difficult to complete the total unless they know a large holder willing to sell. There’s also the shorts that have started to close, how many shares will they Waleye (sic.) need to buy with the price steadily increasing to their cost. (Will they sack their traders for losing serious money ?

If the board decide that another share buyback might not be easy after the AGM (especially if they announce continued max production/ local sales @ a price or 27 per barrel or more ) that being so will GKP pay a small dividend, 10 million dollars = about 3p or will they pay the 25 million cancelled last AGM 8p + per share.

We shall see.

Re. Itzanidiot how he has the nerve to reappear with the same negative crap is beyond me. He lost all credibility with his previous incorrect predictions. Must be mad and I for one should stop responding about itz as it seems itz gets his kicks here. Sad person.

No RNS today, no share buybacks ?

With the news that the Iraq oil ministry wish to hold talks, as soon as possible, with Kurdish oil ministry AND the oil companies could it be that they are beginning to wonder if they should open the pipeline while it still has great value to Kurdistan and the oil companies, companies that only yesterday claimed that it was Iraq that has not been negotiating.

In the meantime the shorts will be sweating

Could it be that the so called ‘local sales’ (exports via trucks) have weakened Baghdad’s bargaining position. (there’s no doubt that the Iranian influenced politicians have been keeping the pipeline shut for reasons of their own ) Could it now be that they fear Kurdistan’s ability to survive and prosper without the unwelcome requirement to market Kurdish oil via SOMO.

With an income of their own Kurdistan is to all intense and purposes virtually independent. Something that Iran, with their own troublesome Kurdish minority, do not want, especially with the American presence in Kurdistan.

While money talks the politicians will also need to ‘save face’ and I strongly suspect an agreement is close. (Unfortunately as I have several times during the past year.)

Confused? If not wait for the oil minister’s next statement.

Personally I wouldn’t call this a “game” but I get your point. With our shares going up there should be a requirement for shorts to run for cover, which in itself creates an increased price.

So where does this take us ? 150 pre AGM update. (160 and I’d have to consider my hold position with a view to sell some, this is remember, a volatile share and as such the direction can change very quickly.

No buybacks on Friday which was another positive price day. Are GKP expecting the shorts to close and support the share price ?

Re. Apikur statement, well they would say that, why wouldn’t they? However, no matter what is said on all sides, while the Iranian influence holds the pipe remains shut.

I seriously believe that the powers that be in Kurdistan are dealing* with Turkey in order to maximise oil trade (I don’t see the logic in selling oil to Iran )

* All manner of interests to satisfy including border security and, importantly how to deal with those Iranian supporting Iraqis. reducing water flow until the pipeline dispute is settled. Which it will be. In the meantime Kurdistan’s requirement for finance should insure stable ‘local Sales’ and therefore GKPs short term profitability.

I know next to nothing about Iraq’s politics, although I thought that I did before I invested in GKP. Therefore please take this opinion with ‘a pinch of salt.’

I now wonder if the Iranian influenced powers in Iraq ( Anti anything Western influenced, especially Kurds ) will do all that they can do to keep financial control of Kurdistan ( via a closed pipeline ) the Iranian influenced PM included. However I also wonder if those with power in Kurdistan are doing all that they can do to regain the financial power that they enjoyed when the oil price was around 100 and the pipe was open. My question, aimed at those that know more than me re. those politicians, is Are the Kurds trying to sell the same 400 or so barrels a day to and via Turkey by tankers in an attempt to be self sufficient without Baghdad’s money. ? Are Turkey assisting via opening extra land borders ? ( they want cheap oil)

Also what will Kurdistan’s position be when the current pipeline contract expires next year? Can they open it themselves ?

All answers please to ‘ Confused @ share chat ‘

No surprise that we didn’t read a word from Itzajealous person until the price dropped yesterday, probably because some recent buyers were taking profits ( and unbeknown to us) the company didn’t make a single buyback trade. Does Itzadimbo remember It’z own “I’m clever” comments when our shares were 110 / 120 recently and The clever dick said sell (you Fools ) because your shares are going down to 90p. soon. Itzanothing better to do in life must have lots of valueless time to spare to troll people that It doesn’t know.

Seriously. If you believe that the pipeline will not be opening in the near future at the time of the AGM update statement a share price in the 150 / 60 range, might be a sell opportunity with the view to repurchase if they drop back to the 130s.

Dealing GKP is interesting to say the least.

On hold this morning I’m wondering if I might gain a little before this afternoon’s close if I buy into the modest fall expected.

Maybe if we drop another penny or two?

It seems like a lot of shares were traded on the sell side yesterday, more than GKP purchased,, perhaps slowing our progression towards 150 /60 that I expect before we hit the fully valued pre- pipe opening surge beyond 200. While the share price might stall today, it will give the company the chance to purchase more shares at a lower price. However, with the AGM statement due in a few weeks the price should rise again as that date approaches, when we’ll be re-rated (up or down ) depending upon performance and prospects.

Hold for now if you can tolerate the risk or take some profits if you purchased in the 89 - 120 range and are finding it too difficult to resist.

This A G M will be closely monitored in terms of another update that could reconfirm sales and importantly the ‘local / export’ prices achieved, and with a fair wind they might announce another share buyback and / or the prospects for a return of dividends, and that will be the last thing any remaining shorts might be able to tolerate before they ‘bite the bullet’ and purchase the stock that they must return, which in itself equals a buy back in terms of mopping up sellers shares.

Yes it does seem that Iraq are casting ‘those nasty Western oil companies’ as the scapegoats, when in reality Iranian influenced politicians ( Al-Sudani himself ? ) want to control Kurdistan via money. What they’d like to do but can’t by force.

While so called “local sales” (exports via trucks to Turkey) are high, albeit with prices low that favour kickbacks on the road. In the meantime GKP can operate profitably and we can look forward to more buybacks and / or dividends. This being so the current buyback has put a floor under the share price and I’d now expect a period of stability followed by my target price of 150 /65 prior to interims. Unfortunately and like many here I was hoping for a far far higher price when the pipe opens, 240 /320

I don’t like it but personally I’d take a lower oil price deal in exchange for a firm new contract with Iraq that removes much of the risk from my long term investment in GKP. The point when normal investors are not too frightened to buy our shares.

Sadly I’m not a normal investor and as a trader ‘stability’ in a share price isn’t what I’m looking for. Day traders thrive on volatility and I’ve done okay in GKP for that reason.

Hold, but life’s too short to do that for too long.

I first purchased @ 50p in 1995 or thereabouts. I sold 50% @ £2 a few years later. I wish I’d sold the lot because here I am almost 30 years older and in need of retirement funds with shares worth 4p or thereabouts.

Funny thing is I can’t recall one negative sentiment A G M statement. Not funny ha ha.

PUTUP What part of saying one thing and doing the opposite is Credible?

So who’s the “dipsh*t” The man that bought at 89 and said so and why at the time on this forum, or the hypocrite?

PUTUP So you post here “sell GKP @92” and you are “bearish” all of the way up 130. If that were true you’re a hypocrite. If that’s true you wouldn’t have been a buyer.

Change your name because PUTUP is tarnished. Almost as much as Itzafool

Taking account of the stability that the share buyback programme provides I’ve just made a small purchase. While I’ll be happy to add this to my longish term holding which was already long, I have noted the pressure that the U.S. seems to be applying re. Pipeline reopening, therefore as a trader I’ll look for a quick buck.

The ducks do seem to be lining up in advance of a positive announcement, unfortunately I’ve said that before.