Member Info for rogthegamer

Arm

May I suggest that you shorten your ‘handle’ it might then be easier to get hold of you when other lonely souls like myself wish on occasion to engage in a personal duel.

May I also suggest that your posts would be of more value if they contained useful information or views regarding GKP their current situation, their prospects, or hurdles that need to be navigated, and the political situation as it effects GKP

In short Arm. Just think of the time that can be saved if you only post items relevant to GKP

If itsaponsi knew as much as he is so keen to waste his clearly over abundance of time telling strangers about he would be a very wealthy person with far better things to do in life. Starting with putting those pessimistic opinions into action and shorting GKP on Wednesday. Although he’d be crying now.

PUTUP

You may well be right and without directing profits towards investment in the future production won’t rise beyond 55k or so. So what personally I’m too old to worry about long term gains as opposed to paying short term dividends as the company were, all too briefly, before the pipeline closure. Sadly I came in here seeking a 2/3 month turn round 8 f***in* months ago

Dare2tri With lots to gain I hope you’re right. But yet another ‘false dawn’ sad to say that’s more than likely as I’ll believe that they’ll change the law for our benefit when it actually happens. Yes there is a likelihood of a large increase when the pipeline opens as it surely will later if not sooner but the current price is what it is for a reason, and that includes downside risks that sensible investors are surely aware of. ( or should be ) Finally and unlike Armasmaximilian I for one won’t cry if I miss the next high. Besides I’ve just moved to my winter location and I’ll still enjoy my daily swim no matter what happens in Iraq.

Yesterday’s share price fall probably owes much to the fall in crude sales when most were expecting a month on month increase. Personally I don’t believe this makes too much difference in terms of GKP’s long term value which is reliant upon the pipeline being reopened with a fair contract. In the meantime with costs covered and decent cash reserves I for one will wait until common sense prevails. As for today’s small bounce, while it could be a ‘dead cat’ and it might be market related, it could also be the bottom has been found.

Patience Required

Your post does seem sensible Belgrano and I do hope, indeed I expect, that you are right, Sadly the Iranian influence is very powerful in Iraq and sensible often rates far lower than we might like in their minds.

After so many false dawns I hesitate to say so but have we at long last passed the end of the beginning and entered the beginning of the end. It certainly SEEMS that the only remaining obstacle is an agreement with the IOC’s. That being so better long than short GKP.

Nevertheless Some Patience is still required

Sad to say but I do despair and wonder if the powers that be in Baghdad are happy with their new control over those ‘nasty’ Kurds. As for the loss of a billion or so per month and all of those Kurdish civil servants not being paid , they don’t seem to care. Plus is it possible that Iraq are telling OPEC “ we’re doing our bit Re. production cuts required to support the oil price, 400 k barrels per day from the Kurdish part of Iraq.

Patience still required

While we’re not quite where most on this forum would like to be, (richer) and a positive outcome is far from being guaranteed, this does have the feeling of being the final round of negotiations, the individual shares of a very valuable cake. On the plus side it wasn’t that long ago when Iraq were imposing sanctions on any service companies that dared to assist those, ‘nasty’ Western oil companies that were illegally producing on behalf of those ‘greedy’ Kurds that were keeping all of the income. The minimum that we are now being offered is a legal revenue sharing contract as opposed to a more lucrative production sharing agreement. I can suppose we’ll be given less but being legal should compensate in terms of lowering the risk factor in buying / holding GKP shares, thus increasing the PE / share price.

For those of us that have been following GKP over the past 6 months or so in a sensible manner today’s price movement should have been predictable. 135 reflects a mid point between the increasing prospect of an agreement and the risk of it fading away as the days of this week pass without the much anticipated announcement. (Which is a matter of when and not if)

Rather than dream about a massive bid premiums the next predictable steps MIGHT be 160 or so pipeline open followed by a small fall if the new contracts are not as good as previously 140/50. Or a small increase if the contracts are reasonable 160/5. Increasing to 180 if past payments are recognised. From there production increases and dividend announcements should over time take the price above 200 and potentially towards 300 depending upon the international price of oil. As for takeover speculation, why haven’t positions been built over the past few months.?

Finally if i could predict share price movement accurately I would be worth millions. Sadly I’m not. Far from it. That said my prospects of spending part of this winter in the sunshine have clearly increased today.

Rudaw just published new article re. Meeting today (12th ) that seems to confirm that we are in, at long last, the final stages of this ‘saga’ can only hope it’s not another false dawn.

While we don’t know the average price of the Walleye short position they did increase @ about 123. Clearly they would be losing money if they repurchase that last short @ 127 today, therefore if they are holding on in the expectation of the shares falling thus taking them into profit they must believe in something bad that I for one don’t . While the current firm but low price might be reasonable allowing for short term up and down sides depending upon the next minor update/ rumour/ news item it could be that the final negotiations are in progress and, at long last, the real good news is close, new contracts and export pipe open. In which case my advice to Walleye would be close those shorts asap. Not that they will if only because those people are not gambling with their own money.

Belgrano

I wish more people that post here would do so in the sensible factual manner that you do with words that are worth reading especially when this adds to my limited technical knowledge regarding the oil industry. Sadly this forum has become a place where all manner of people speculate regarding overly negative or positive outcomes in addition to the political views of sad people that appear to have no other outlet for their tripe.

The situation with GKP in my mind is clear and obvious. We can wait until the current problems are resolved when the shares will rise significantly. Or we can cut and run in fear of a negative outcome. Ie. Patience required

While the majority of those that follow events and post here regarding the value of GKP are becoming increasingly confident that the long awaited pipeline reopening is close, the market seems to be ever more sceptical as each ‘false dawn’ comes and goes. In the meantime the shorts are making the money and until a positive RNS appears and they ‘run for the hills’ I for one will follow the developments as presented here by those that have the time and the means to perform the research with interest and, sad to say, take it all in with ‘a pinch of salt.’

Patience still required.

JakelaMotta

Please stop this useless idiotic speculation, possible or not. In fact distant take over value is something that many on this forum are aware of and can calculate for themselves so there’s no need to share your personal dreams. The current situation is the priority and if this is not sorted ( Iraq attempting to control Kurdistan) we won’t have a company least if all one worth billions.

Shares are priced for a reason, in GKPs case, for several reasons that most of those on this forum should be all too aware of. Sadly this is not the case and far too many are dreaming of riches or posting idiotic speculation and guesswork. Yes GKP has massive potential but the current price is what it is for real reasons and not because of those ‘nasty shorts’ or manipulation. It’s simply a case of risk and anyone that buys shares in a company based in this region should be well aware and strong enough to take the chance. For instance the recent Peshmerga clash with the Iraq army ( we need these people to do deals not fight ) and the U.S. evacuation of non essential staff from their Baghdad and Erbil embassies. Thousands of teachers protesting about unpaid salaries. It’s a mess but in their lies the opportunity. Patience please

While little that we didn’t know was revealed in the update, nor could it be outside of an RNS that all can see, one encouraging sentence was something like ‘ we started selling on the local market in tankers, then as in the last RNS, via a pipeline to a refinery’ Now he has revealed that while we are still selling via the pipeline trucking has also restarted.

Seems that we are supplying all that the refinery can handle and production has grown beyond that.

Re. Falling share price. As the owner of a large ( for me ) and diverse U.K. portfolio GKP is not the only falling share today, far from it. This of course has given the pessimistic posters here the chance to say “we told you so !’ the shares will go down”

OK if GKP shares go down as before, I’ll buy some more.

Yes Itsaponzi too many false dawns and a good news / production RNS should trigger a real correction in the share price, but let’s not be too optimistic because local oil prices are a ‘rip off’ in fact local sales could be one of the many reasons why some people in high places in Iraq, no doubt with Iranian influences who traditionally hate the Kurds, will be very happy to buy cheap Kurdish oil thus allowing then to sell more of their own oil at a far higher export price. All the better for them if they can control those ‘nasty’ Kurds via their budget. Not to mention the fact that Kurdistan leans towards Israel supporting western governments.

That said one billion dollars per month lost should, eventually, win the argument and therefore Patience is still required before the real dividends return, After the pipeline opens.

The value of Gulf Keystone Petroleum is an ‘Open and Shut case.’ It’s the pipeline!

1, Open = good/high

2, Closed = bad/ low

Those that believe in 1, should wait patiently.

Those that believe in 2, should short the shares.

Wonderful ! Sadly it’s a dream. The very low net realised price of oil for local sales will probably cover expenses that will increase alongside higher production, it might produce a small profit but until GKPs long term future is secured via a deal that Iraq accepts I wouldn’t expect any dividends, in fact payments would be irresponsible before the companies future is secure.

OK, looking on the bright side with the pipeline open and increasing production alongside a high oil price a return to regular dividends should be expected, but not so high as last year if funds are diverted towards the capital investment required to increase production beyond 80k bpd.?

The best we can hope for is a one off special dividend on a substantial payment of arrears.

Finally the conjecture and speculation on this forum is increasing to the point of stupidity. Have some PATIENCE Please.