Member Info for rogthegamer

Buyers of GKP at the recent lows when volumes were extremely high will make a 5 fold profit on a £5 bid and the large share holders have a history of selling out for short term gain, most often to foreign companies that now own, thanks to our old school insurance company / institutions over paid executives, most of what is left of ‘British industry.’ My favourite tutor once told me “leave something for someone else” ( ie chase the last buck at your peril )

The GKP share price is low for a reason that we are all, all too aware of. If the company was “in play” as a current take over target the share price would be far higher. As for the majority of the of the current share holders being offered a mega money sum in a take over, that will not happen, a large number of the current shareholders, the majority in a binding vote, will sell accept a bid of £5 or less, in fact many, myself included, will take the money and run if and when the price returns to a recent previous high of 320 or less.

While GKP may well become a takeover target and therefore the real money will be made by that far larger major oil company, personally I don’t believe that there is some kind of conspiracy regarding the funds that are holding short positions, no it’s more than likely that they are ‘bears’ simply betting with client funds on the share price doing the opposite to what most of the ‘bulls’ on this forum are doing; betting on an increasing share price, and let’s be honest over the past 5 or 6 months the bears have made the money while the bulls have seen the value of their shares decline. That said the current trend Is clearly up and I’m happy with my own long position and those shorts may well be considering their position in fear.

Just-Anither-Bot

As a trader long on GKP I could borrow a few extra and sell them for 125, then in the event of negative or no news Re. Pipeline and the shares retreat to say 100 or so, buy to return the loan thus giving me a 20% profit. On the other hand in the event of the positive news that most expect I should be able to sell some of my existing long holding at 150+ = a 20% + profit and return the loaned shares. Ok in that positive event I don’t make as much I would have by doing nothing but the shorts would have covered some of my down side risk . That said this isn’t worthwhile unless the numbers are larger than I can personally afford as a private individual.

Re. Armasmaximilian’ s comments

Apologies to all of those that post on this forum with views and useful information regarding GKP, as I have mistakenly engaged in an exchange of political banter with a sad person that obviously can’t find an audience elsewhere. I will not make this mistake again.

Mr Spacetomato

While this forum should focus on GKP I can’t resist the chance to debate with those like you that support despots like Putin.

First and foremost your ridiculous notion that Ukraine would prefer to live under the puppet Russian government that preceded their clear democratic choice. Eastern European countries have moved on since they we’re forcefully ruled by by Russian communists, moved on into then EU for the benefit of them all, so much so that the Ukrainian people desperately want to join them in freedom and prosperity. So much so that they are standing up to a super power at the cost of their lives. You say I didn’t address your view that the USA wouldn’t allow Mexico to side with China against them, only an idiot would believe that the US would invade a smaller neighbour in the belief that they might become a threat in the manner of Russia is to Ukraine, the ordinary Mexican people admire the U.S. and dream of living there. The difference in Russia is that they are frightened of Ukraine becoming free and wealthy As in East Germany Poland etc. and becoming an example that their own downtrodden people might wish to follow. Facts.

Finally please don’t reply unless it’s constructive regarding GKP.

Space tomato

As an investor in GkP I have every reason to support AKIPUR as when the pipeline opens we should be paid on time and in full including past amounts due. Simple

However, your support for Putin’s position is misguided to say the least. As an independent country Ukraine have the right to follow their own democratic path as chosen by the majority of their own people, including the right to join The EU and NATO if they so desire. NATO is not a threat it’s a deterrent that has not attacked Russia, on the contrary Russia has attacked Ukraine with deadly force destroying infrastructure, shopping centres and apartments, schools etc. that have no military use killing and displacing thousands of innocent people, including elderly that fought with Russia against the Nazi’s and children deprived of their future. Yes the West have provided weapons without which their country would have been overrun forcing them to live as slaves to Russia.

You should be thankful that you don’t live in Russia where descent could land you in jail or worse.

Armasmaximilian.

Sadly it’s more than likely that your hero Putin would have been asking Iraq to reduce oil sales in order to support a higher price for Russian oil in order to fund the invasion of an independent country. The easiest way for Iraq to comply being to stop the export of Kurdish oil and force them to sell it on a local market at an unfairly discounted price.

Wrong !

I was brought up to believe that ‘two wrongs don’t make a right.’ But what did the leaders of Hamas think would happen in Gaza when they decided to send out their fanatical followers on a mission to murder as many innocent people as they could come across ( Genocide. ) Knowing as they surely did how Israel would respond they had no concern for the fate of their own people. That said there can be no justification for the murder of innocent people as an act of revenge, indeed it’s idiotic because it simply breeds more discontent in the minds of another fanatical generation.

Straycat.

As you say we “should stick to the fundamentals.” Which in my opinion are excellent, and I have put, what for me, is a very large sum of my hard earned money behind that view. Therefore I will hold until the “ cream rises to the top” as it inevitably will in time. My problem however has now become the time that my mind has become focused on so many crazy political issues and “will it or won’t it “ thoughts, endless speculation and false dawns. One day pipeline prospects are improving, the next they are dashed. In the meantime other investment opportunities exist and with all of my higher risk capital deployed in GKP, they could be opportunities lost, indeed one has been. In that respect the price I paid for GKP between April and September (average 120 or so ) is not the problem, the problem is that the 120 x !!! k came from selling an interesting Brazilian stock for 35% less than they are today. The cost of my winter in the Sun.

Good luck to all that stick with this, you will deserve it.

Roger

This situation is far more complicated illogical and confusing than I could ever have imagined it might be when I purchased my initial speculative holding in GKP. In some respects I’m beginning to regret doing so, not because I believe that there will not be a very good return when , and no if, this is resolved as best it will ever be, ( in time ) but because I’m now finding myself spending far too much time thinking about Middle Eastern politics and stupidity at the expense of my other investments and opportunities. While I’ll keep an eye on here in the hope that I’m informed as soon as actual events occur, the time to step back, sit on my holding and try to be patient has arrived. In the meantime I’ll attempt to avoid reading the endless idiotic speculation both optimistic and pessimistic, it’s a waste of time, yours and mine.

While it remains the case that it’s when the oil will flow and not if it will be interesting to see how the stock market reacts to what might be another false dawn. In the meantime I wonder if there are powerful people in Iraq who are happy to see Kurdistan supplying discounted oil onto their local market , especially those that therefore have more oil in Southern Iraq that can be exported @ more than twice the price.

It’s always been “down to the stubbornness of the politicians.”

Clearly my post on Monday following the 26% share price increase to 128 /30. ( Patience Rewarded ) was premature, albeit written from the prospective of a share trader who came in after the pipeline closure buying in separate lots between 160 and 86 @ an average price of 124. I will therefore return to my previous position of ‘Patience Required’ as I’m back in a negative area. However, I have revised my initial intentions, partly based upon useful information kindly provided here, albeit alongside an abundance of crap. I now believe that GKP has massive upside potential, plus with the benefit of a strong balance sheet and local sales, the risk profile has been reduced to the point where I have switched my holding out of a short term trading account into a medium term growth fund, and with a clear dividend potential that might in time allow me to switch again and hold the stock long term in my income portfolio. In that respect I have been greatly encouraged by the stance that APIKUR seem to have taken regarding future payments and past arrears ( including 50p + per share to GKP ) by working together it will be difficult for Iraq to replace all of those companies as new western investors would regard that example as being a reason to be cautious with regards to any new investments in Kurdistan / Iraq.

Finally, reading between the lines of the APIKUR statement, would I be right to assume that they are claiming their right to withhold the 64% percentage due to Kurdistan on local sales for repayment of past money owed. ( ie are our local sales @ 30 dollars now ‘net’ in advance as opposed to ‘gross’ (36%) ?? A vast difference in terms of current profitability )

Patience still Required

Mulder Has the market factored in another 400k barrels per day ? Even so Saudi Arabia / Russia seem determined to maintain a high price and Chinese demand is increasing.

Put Up. £3 seems reasonable by comparison with that same price last year when production was c45k barrels and the yield was around 20% especially if the risk profile decreases with Iraq’s agreement for exports on existing contract terms and production hits 55k + barrels progressing towards 80k. Plus we are owed more than 100 million. Although GKP will probably reduce dividends in favour of FDP investment, that or become a target for a major with greater investment resources @ c£5 )

In short GKP will still be a buy in my book @ 160 + later this week when the pipeline is open. All of that said we can only hope this latest reason for optimism doesn’t turn out to be yet another False Dawn.

JAdams No I for one will not be surprised if the share price drops back, this is a dream share for traders and almost 10 million have been traded today with the buyers betting on making a profit beyond the 127 / 129 they paid today.

In the meantime I for one and lots of the sensible regulars here can wait for what does seem to be inevitable; ie. GKP continues to operate at a small profit until the politicians do reach an agreement and the price returns to 200 +

Pincer You might be right. On the other hand those that have taken a negative view on this over the past couple of months and sold for between 81 and 100 were wrong and today’s price increase has been substantial, albeit from a low start by comparison to the historical price, I’d say today’s movement is strong enough to be believable and if the price does drop as it might on profit taking that will simply be a buying opportunity

Roxi. Yes with ‘the green light from the Iraq Federal Government’ GKP and all IOCs operating in Kurdistan will be ‘legal’ and therefore less risky as investments as opposed to the situation prior to the pipeline closure. Under those circumstances it will be reasonable to assume that should GKP produce the same amount of oil at a similar price (c95 ) the share price will be higher than it previously was. (c220 / 320 ) perhaps 400 or so, however, a certain amount of risk will still be present with regards to Iraq in itself and the full value 500 + probably won’t arrive. That said is the market fully aware of the fact that GKP can now produce 55k barrels per day and potentially 85k without too much more investment, rising to 100 / 120 barrels in the existing FDP. There will also be the possibility of exploiting proven gas reserves, although that might only happen if a larger oil company steps in taking advantage of the certainty that GKPs major shareholders will no doubt sell before the price truly reflects all of the companies vast potential.

Yes Mulder GKP are owed a lot of money, or i should say as share holders we are owed a lot of money, but the only way that this will be paid, as it was in the recent past alongside a high oil price, is by shipping the oil and trusting the KRG.

Todays share price increase indicates that the market believes the Turkish oil minister, but it’s not a fact so when the oil actually flows a more sustainable increase will follow as the price today will be impacted by those that purchased between 85 / 100 take their short term gains.