Member Info for rogthegamer

Stock markets don’t like uncertainty. While Kurdistan was in dispute with Baghdad’s various factions and the Paris court were deliberating Re. a decision that was widely expected to favour Iraq. GkP and other IOC’s were operating illegally, however with profits from exceptionally high oil prices and massive dividends GKP was deemed to be worth 500 million or so (240 + per share ) However, high yields signal high risk and without that risk GKP’s shares would have been trading at a higher PE ratio ( 500 + per share yielding 8% or so. ) Now of course we all know what that risk was and in a worse case the company could have folded with worthless shares, that risk remains but after yesterday’s RNS it seems less likely. Indeed the most likely medium term outcome, will be production @ or around 80 BOPD flowing with Turkey taking a cut in exchange for water ( they can’t eat oil ) with Saudi Arabia firm on maintaining c.80 barrel GKP can pay sensible dividends that allow for higher capital spending that might include exploiting known Gas reserves. At that point it will be fair to estimate a PE in the region of 7 / 8 = a share price of 300 / 500. More in the event of a larger IOC taking out those of us that will settle for short term gain in exchange for our recent suffering. At that point those that panicked will be thinking ‘ if only, if not F***

In short our strength and patience might yet be rewarded, and deserved.

Itsaponzi Large after normal closing time trades might be brokers / market makers that bought or sold a multitude small amounts throughout the day putting them together on behalf of a client that’s buying or selling large holdings that can’t be traded in one single transaction. Hopefully a buyer looking to build a large position and not a large shareholder looking to escape.

Yes Itsaponzi like you I’m far happier to sit this out now than I have been in the recent past, although I’ve been a share trader for long enough to be able to sleep at night no matter what the market in any of my holdings might be, not that I was happy yesterday., far from it, although I didn’t mention this to her who spends our money( happy wife, happy life .’

Yes I can also imagine that a lot of short term day traders are taking their ‘pound of flesh’ this morning at the expense of those that panicked, perhaps these sales are holding the price down in the short term. Personally, as mentioned here yesterday, I put my money where my mouth has been for a while, and bought a lot in own my terms, the difference being that with the benefit of the information obtained from yourself and some others here, plus today’s RNS I’ve decided to change from day trader and allocate those extra shares to a longer ( not very long ) term part of my portfolio.

As I have the habit of spending winters in the sun I do hope that this can be resolved with the pipeline open and back payments being paid in part before the autumn. That being so my price target is 240 medium term + + in the event of increased production being achievable @ c 80 + bpd as stated by the company. Far more as a legal holder of a valuable asset that might attract the attention of a predator.

Thanks BroadfootBay

I do appreciate that gas is a long term in the future prospect, and of course first things first in our current predicament, however with climate change to consider alongside Iraq’s stated desire to move towards gas self sufficiency and exports flaring won’t be an option and pumping such a valuable asset back into the ground seems ridiculous. Yes the exploitation of our gas will be difficult and no doubt expensive, and very long in the prospects of a return. That said the market looks forward as do larger oil companies with predators huge pockets.

Iraq Oil Report _ “ The KRG has started work to expand its gas pipeline network, an initiative that promises to increase domestic power supply, unlock more gas production and take a step toward potential future gas exports.”

“ Construction has begun on a 36 inch pipeline running from Erbil to a power plant in Dohuk near Turkish border.”

“ corroborated by photographs of the new pipeline seen by Iraq Oil Report.” “ Groundwork started “

Etc. full article available to subscribers.

Holding GKP is interesting to say the least. Yesterday I mentioned my near bottom ‘day trade’ Now with the RNS being broadly positive I suppose I should be patient and stick with a far larger holding in this company than might be sensible. In the meantime folks thanks for all of your input, especially from those of you that know more about the oil industry than me. ( more than F A ie nothing )

Exceptional volume alongside a falling price will most often signal that negative news will follow, and of course high volume with a rising price presupposes positive news.

A late Monday trade, probably a sale, of 100 + k was fortunate* for who ever it was,. ( * corruption is not limited to the 3rd World ) however, some late trades came in today that look more promising, including 584k @ 108 and 250k @ 100. I hope they know something positive, that said, if the price does recover on Wednesday morning questions should be asked.

I grabbed a few near the bottom today for what was supposed to be a day trade, then something else came up and I’ve still got them so newbee I hope you’re right and I can sell in the morning before the wife notice’s my transactions.

Just purchased at less than the price of GKP’s last 12 month total dividends. Didn’t hold the stock last year and I hope that I don’t next year. In the meantime I’ve been given some revealing lessons in Middle Eastern politics.

Are they really what they seem to be and if so why do those that populate this part of our World not kick them out.

Not the right time for a rights issue. GKP’s cash position should last longer than a resolution, we shall see. Sadly the market is predicting something nasty.

In the words of Capt. Mainwaring “ Don’t Panic ! “

Could it be that those in the know are jumping ship or is it lemmings following each other.? We shall see!

Personally I’ll do some day trading in the belief that this will partly correct this afternoon.

Just returned from a short holiday to ? Can anyone in a few words say what happened today?

Anyway in the manner of doing what I do, sometimes right, sometimes wrong, I’ve taken this opportunity to buy GKP.

Was that stupid or wise?

Great! Apart from a shut pipeline and my high mileage.

While the market ( always a good guide ) is moderately positive re. the outcome of a meeting, or the meeting itself, this isn’t certain . On balance I’d buy now, or I would if I didn’t already hold a full allocation of risk in my portfolio. With the oil price firm there is some considerable upside potential here, but as always with politicians I’ll believe them when I see results rather than words.

Patience still required, although I wouldn’t like to be a short in GKP this week.

C***eye I can see where Itsaponzi is coming from , personally I won’t put too much faith into this as we’ve seen too many false dawns, or not until the exact date of the visit is published and confirmed via Reuters or Rudaw. That said the market seems to think something is afoot and leaders do like to glow in the glory of making agreements that have been painstakingly negotiated at lower levels.

600 grand down !

I thought that I was too deep in GKP @ 5% of my portfolio. If 600 k is a sensible risk element in your portfolio is Waffen Joe Lewis in disguise.?

Patience still required, albeit seemingly not so much.

Apologies No offence intended just a play on the wording of the Belgrano’s post. Sadly this board is becoming repetitive place and a little humour brightens my day.

Belgrano. How much do you believe Isaponz is worth.

Seriously endless speculation is becoming tedious, might I suggest that all posts of the kind are suspended pending actual facts being available.

If this goes on much longer I’ll change my ‘handle’ to 16 gotnocash.

Yes GKP can survive well into next year.

Yes the KRG owe GKP in access of 100 million, but it will not be wise to threaten leading politicians in Iraq or Kurdistan if you want continue there long term.

I do believe that the situation is relatively simple now ( simple by comparison) Turkey don’t want to pay the fine to Iraq and they want oil at a price similar to the current discounted Russian price. ( they can make money selling Kurdish oil on at market price)

Iraq have no current requirement to sell oil at a discounted price because they have agreed to make OPEC cuts ( why cut their own Southern oil price when they can simply say we have cut so much of ‘our’ Northern oil ( Kurdish)

It’s west I’ll call a stand off.

Patience still required

OK C***eye agree but under the new agreement, when it’s Implemented, the Kurds had no choice other than to accept that SOMO will market the oil and pay the proceeds into a joint account where Kurdistan in exchange receive a share of the national budget, SOMO being an extension of the mostly Shia Iraq government, therefore have some permanent control over the Kurds.

P.S. On my last post I mentioned that Kurdistan should pay the fine 1.4 billion ish on behalf of Turkey but I didn’t make my point clear as to Iraq receive 1.4 billion and return same 1.4 billion that to Kurdistan. I suppose that’s too simple in reality and in the meantime Iraq / Kurdistan are losing more than 1 billion per month and Turkey are not being paid a penny in transport fees.

Crazy and not what I for one thought I was getting into when I bought my GKP shares in April.