Member Info for rogthegamer

Yes Belgrano the only long term way to reap profits for all will be via oil sales, and why wouldn’t Turkey want ‘special’ rates and back-handers when they now have access to Putin’s oil at a discount. But could it be that Erdogan is right; Are the Iranian Shia influenced politicians pleased to have some control over Kurdistan’s income, money that could be used to finance a large army in addition to their civil service. Also why should Turkey pay a fine to Iraq for shipping oil on behalf of Kurdistan while Iraq disagreed and then ship oil on behalf of Kurdistan when they are in agreement with Iraq.? Kurdistan should pay the fine and invoice Iraq

As usual as clear as mud while ‘Rome Burns’

It does seem like GKP share holders are being teased, fed small snippets of hope only to be disappointed and then teased again and again.

That said I’ll add a tiny one of those myself. During Sunday’s meeting between the leaders of Iraq and Syria the subject of reviving an oil pipeline from Northern Iraq to a sea port via Syria was raised. Personally I have no knowledge re. that particular route, perhaps someone here might know more. Or was this simply a message to Turkey ie. we have an alternative?

Rudaw

Jan - March. “ 32.3 million barrels exported to international markets through the Iraq / Turkey pipeline. “

“The government received 2.7 billion and 22 million from local sales but only 946 million after paying financial entitlements of oil companies and debts”

Are they having a laugh at our expense? The situation is certainly as clear as mud.

Yes Phat long term value exists but I wouldn’t place too much faith in dividends if the investment safety climate improves and GKP switch cash into increased capital spending. For instance they are sitting on massive reserves of the gas that Iraq desperately requires.

In that respect Iraq Oil Report 13 /7/23 Re. Deal to trade oil with Iran.

“the (Iraq) council of ministers also authorised the oil ministry to negotiate gas supplies from fields under the authority of the Kurdistan Regional Government ( KRG ) though there is no immediate supply available.”

Interesting but always ‘Jam Tomorrow’

P.S. have the shorts run for cover ?

So far so good, but after so long and so many false dawns I’ll wait until the oil actually flows before I’ll believe another local politician’s word.

Arm, Same old Sane old. Exactly what has your friend Putin done in Syria in cahoots with Assad other than murder innocent people and destroy their own country in the pursuit of personal power beyond contest, as in Iran where brave people that dare to protest are hung in there hundreds.

Fortunately Iraq seem to be pragmatic in their pursuit of western investment, which as Erdogan has discovered, is far more reliable than your favoured Russian kind.

In short, an idiotic post as usual.

Plus the release of the Ukrainian POWs must have pi**ed Putin off. Seems that Erdogan is deserting a sinking ship, ( the Communists that a couple of pessimistic regulars here love so much ) hopefully in fear that Russian oil isn’t reliable by comparison with a neighbour’s that happens to have a handy pipeline.

In the usual way of these things agreements are most often a pragmatic compromise made at a lower level leaving the glory of the actual announcement as the gift of the leaders . It will certainly be rare for two leaders to end a grand summit without smiles and a handshake.

Well. Arm.. if that ( “ I’d invest in Russia now if I could” ) is the level of your investment expertise I won’t take any further notice of your posts on here.

I wish, and I’m sure that you’re right. Just a question of when and not if.

That said, and even writing as a bullish ‘long’ shareholder, I must say that many of the politicians in this part of the World are a law unto themselves and their overwhelming priorities might not always be in the best interests of the people that they claim represent, least of all common sense for our Western prospective. Therefore I do wonder if part of the current problem owes much to the Iranian Shia influence in Iraq. Do they detest Kurds in general and some fervently? While Kurdistan had control of their own finances they also had the funds to maintain theIr Peshmerga fighting force which is armed and supported by the West, most especially in the recent ISIS conflict, they still hold thousands in detention without trial. Are those mostly Shia politicians happy that Kurdistan’s revenue in the absence of oil sales is supplied by Baghdad where they have so much power, just enough to prevent civil unrest not too much as when the oil price was exceptionally high. When Turkey do agree to open the pipeline this Iranian Shia Influence will still be maintained as they will be able to exert control over all of Kurdistan’s oil revenue via sales exclusively channeled through SOMO.

It’s a strange World, but in the end money always wins because those politicians value their own luxurious in life and the oil needs to flow for that alone.

Patience still required.

Why would the ruling powers need to run oil companies themselves when they can find foreigners to invest in discovery, development, and production then claim most of the profits?

Patience still required.

Iraq Oil Report 28/6/23

“Cabinet has withdrawn 417 m. U.S. funding for new Southern 500k per day export project etc.”

Was “major step towards easing bottlenecks that constrain Iraq’s production capacity etc.”

I wonder how / where else 500k per day of oil might be exported from, ideas please, although it’s not rocket science.

C***eye

Your prediction, the rise of the East and the demise of the West, says all that needs to be said with regards to the truth in your opinions.

Erdogan has demonstrated similar skill to your Russian, Iranian and North Korean friends with regards to the management of economic affairs and the well-being of the people they exploit.

While I did say that my last post would be my last for a while, sadly I can’t resist this opportunity to respond with regards to a couple of those that waste time that most normal people wouldn’t. Especially with regards to shares that they don’t own.

Terry MCI & C***eye in particular.

First Terry, some people buy shares in high risk / reward companies when they are being sold at low falling prices by those that can’t hold onto them for various reasons, most in fear of losing more money than they can afford. Some people can’t buy these shares because they are too frightened or poor to risk the little that they have, the wimps. By contrast some investors place a small percentage of a total portfolio in shares of this kind after careful consideration of the future prospects because, Terry, the only way to profit is to sell for a higher price than the purchase. At this moment in time most of the sensible people that post here understand that GKP clearly has the potential to become extremely profitable when the pipeline reopens as it will in time ( GKP have the resources to survive well into next year without trucking oil to SOMO which would allow them to survive indefinitely ) in the meantime contrary to the doom and gloom that you foolishly believe I for one are suffering to your obvious sadistic delight, I’m now taking advantage of this wonderful opportunity to buy a few more, all the better if they retreat further ( still within my 10% of portfolio limit.

C***eye. I read / comment on this forum to consider/ discuss sensible points regarding GKP and the politics / technical information that are relive the company. Not to debate with sad idiots that believe Putin is wonderful.

As I’ve said far too much here in the past I’ll make one last post before the shares trade a about 170 or more and I can then say “ I told you the patience was required”

GKP shares have traded in the range 126 - 143 over the past couple of months, up \ down a little following each rumour / news item, plus the oil price \ market itself has been in bear territory. If we step back and consider the overall position, in the recent past the major risk factor for GKP was the probability that Kurdistan would lose the ability to sell it’s oil; during that time high oil price \ dividends kept shareholders happy. But Kurdistan is not an independent state with a sea port of its own,. The fact was that Kurdish oil sales were illegal under International law and that reality has now been legally established beyond doubt.

Kurdistan have now been forced into a ‘climb down’ compromise agreement with Iraq, fortunately this agreement is reasonable under the circumstances. In fact GKP’s position of potentially being a legal supplier of oil via SOMO will remove that major element of risk in the shares, or it will when, in a week or month or so, the oil flows. .

In summary the position is clear, both Turkey and Iraq will attempt to secure a deal that is in their own favour and as almost always happens in these situations a pragmatic deal will emerge because compromise is in the best interests of both parties.

All being well GKP will shortly become a stable profitable company that invests profits into future growth with no need to pay exceptionally high dividends as a high risk company. (Shares trading between 230 \ 330 depending on the oil price and stock market conditions. ) In a best short term case, a small stable / Legal oil producer will be a take over target @ 500, sadly for us the real long term profits will then go to that larger company. In a worst case, a common sense compromise will be lost in a long political ( stupid ) dispute between Turkey and Iraq and a large company with deep pockets will take out GKP’s long suffering shareholders @ 75p or so, and that vulture will make a fortune at our expense when the oil eventually flows as it will.

Goodbye for a while.

The darkest hour is the one before dawn.

Writing as a man of a certain age ( experienced ) who has lived and worked firstly in the city if London, then Africa and in South East Asia, corruption is a Worldwide reality. In the U K we should look no further than the old school boy / Oxbridge upper crust inherited entitlement system that rule over us and not throw stones elsewhere as if more direct forms of corruption are any worse than our own. Why fart against a hurricane, accept the realty if something that you will not change, STOP Winging here and wait for our share of the profits that will come when those that have the power agree to open the flow of money* ( *the oil that is far too valuable to be left in the ground for too much longer. )

Patience still required, but not so much as we’ve past the end of the beginning. Sadly it’s only the beginning of an end that may never arrive short of a bid from our own above mentioned privileged few.

Possible Mulder as the glory of international agreements are most often the gift of those in high office. It was also interesting to see that Barzani was invited to Erdogan’s victory celebration and not Iraq P.M.

all of this seems to be leading to a compromise / pragmatic conclusion as almost always in time.

On the other hand politicians are a breed unto themselves

Yes CCC / BOT Makes sense as the share price is more often than not correct. Your view has now been supported by Reuters reporting that the meet is ‘technical’ one of several and the decisions will be made at a higher political level. That said, a settlement is in all interests and our patience will be rewarded, when? Now that’s another matter.

Today’s opening price hasn’t reflected the optimism here, therefore patience still required, although we are clearly in sight of a solution.