Member Info for rogthegamer

Straycat As I’m sure you are aware one or two high risk holdings within a balanced portfolio is reasonable. I identified GKP shortly before the pipeline closure via it’s obvious risk ( 30% + Yield.) My mistake was in the belief that the pipeline closure would be short term, purchasing in April @ 160. Then again @ 140 and 129 finally @ 90. I’d buy more now but for the fact that almost all of my blue chip stocks are historically low and not worth selling while I’m living off a safe high yield.

No I didn’t do what you call due diligence, my mistake, however on the plus side, I’ve learnt more about Middle Eastern politics during the past few months than the past few years, and importantly I do remember when I mentioned my holding in a Brazilian tug boat operator to a risk adverse investor who told me that I must be mad. Mad for buying OCN @ 50p and selling @ £35 ( now £10 or so ) let’s hope lightning also strikes here as it has for me more often than not ( while I have on occasion lost all in high risk companies that went bust, if we don’t speculate we can’t accumulate. )

As mentioned Patience Required.

As an elderly ( experienced ) share trader I’m not qualified to comment on the technical points re. the oil industry, but as a trader I can say that the current the market price of GKP is a concern, the shares are being sold for a reason and more often than not the market is correct. That said, most of the so called ‘blue chip’ shares in my own portfolio are historically cheap, including massive and very profitable investment/ insurance companies that currently trade with a guaranteed safe near 10% yield. In that respect why buy into a small high risk oil company that has its entire assets invested in one of the most volatile parts of the World ? A question I’m asking myself all too often now, hopefully the answer will be found in the historical failings of the market; for instance on one occasion I purchased shares in a small tech company @15p with a near 15% yield in 1990s ( Densitron DSN ) ridiculously cheap and so it turned out to be because they eventually traded @ £5 in early 2000, ( tech boom ) also ridiculous, far too expensive as it turned out because the company failed ( look it up ) The moral of the story being investing is easy in hindsight but very difficult in real time. Dangerous in GKP albeit with the prospect of a reward that equals the risk. We shall see, in the meantime Patience is Required.

Belgrano. Sensible for sure, if good honest people with sense and decency ruled the World the ordinary people would certainly benefit. Sadly, and as we all know, Iraq, while vastly improved by comparison with a troubled past, remains one of those countries where those in power have personal / religious / tribal /and or financial agendas that they prioritise above the best interests of their own people, least if all foreign companies.

Fortunately they need foreign money / expertise/ weapons and we can only hope that pragmatism wins the day.

Arm. There’s no point to regrets in hindsight. If it wasn’t for those that are selling at these, in the long term very low prices, those that are prepared to buy in times of uncertainty wouldn’t make money in the long term. Sit back ride the short term highs and lows and, as it seems to most on this forum, the real profits will come when not if the pipeline opens, far more than a 1.87 spike. In the meantime GKP is in survival mode.

Can anyone enlighten me with regards to the % cut taken by the KRG on the local sales and how they could continue to take that cut long term without paying some of the money that they owe GKP etc.

I also wonder if local sales might be finding a route, via some greedy hands, to Turkey, in which case they might have a reason to keep the pipeline shut, higher SOMO price oil.

Seems that the market is less than impressed with today’s RNS despite it being broadly as expected, plus slightly higher local sales.

By the nature of a naturally pessimistic risk adverse market the GKP share price is what it is for reasons that we are all too aware of.

That said if we look at this situation in the absence of the past few months of political turmoil and view the wood between the trees the situation is ‘the same but different’ so to speak. ie. Rapidly increasing local sales currently covering reduced costs while awaiting political agreement Re. the opening of an existing pipeline that can export our proven production of 55k bpd as per a very profitable agreement. A short term prospect of 85k bpd. Cash in hand in access of 80 million, no debt and well in access of 100 million due ( in time ) from past invoiced sales.

Unfortunately the local politicians are what they are, ( not politely recordable)

Patience still required

Sadly I must admit that my optimism this past week and more was premature. The politics are becoming more complicated by the hour and I can only hope that Erdogan will make that long awaited visit where they can all pretend to be friends.

In the meantime it does seem that Turkey are playing the water card and perhaps some of them are making small fortunes via tanker loads of cheap oil. Fortunately cash upfront which, cheap or not, is far better than giving it to the KRG. although they will be demanding their share of the spoils, and some of that will no doubt find its way to Turkey.

Another new article. Rudaw this afternoon. Turkey’s foreign minister and Iraq’s prime minister/ president held separate meetings about water and security. No mention whatsoever re. Oil. No wonder the share price fell in advance of that article.

P.S on last post

As a share trader I place great reliance on price movements, ( some know more than others and certainly me ) sadly our price has just hit negative territory. Genl remaining + 9%

Itsaponzi Yes when taking account of those ‘false dawns’ and the less than positive GKP share price movement today ( not withstanding the 9% movement at Genl. ) you could well be right. However, as an optimist I do see some major differences, first and foremost the higher level of the meetings. Plus the reports that have yet to be widely published regarding the much anticipated Erdogan visit, one source predicting next week.

Could it be that several million shares in GKP are on offer following the panic where some pessimistic holders sold at 80 / 90

While I did purchase some of those myself, as I mentioned on the day, my intention to day trade them has been overtaken by what I have mentioned here today is, in my humble opinion, that we gave at long last entered the “end game”

Sadly as we have all come to discover recently the opening of the pipeline, whenever that might be, will not be an End in itself but, in famous words, “The beginning of the end.”

Latest report Erdogan to visit next week

Could this be done and dusted awaiting the final words of those that demand the glory.

If I’ve learnt anything Re. Middle Eastern politics during the near 5 months that I’ve been a GKP shareholder it’s that the local politicians have agendas that serve their own interests both financial and political, with the addition of religious dogma, plus they are confusing to say the least. Therefore as a confused ordinary person take anything that I have to add with a pinch of salt.

That said, I for one didn’t expect positive news yesterday, nor did the market. Just oil ministers discussing what if’s and technical issues. It now seems that Turkey have succeed in putting the resolution of the water dispute off of today’s agenda by yesterday’s agreement to establish a committee to resolve that issue. This will improve Turkey’s hand regarding today’s negotiations regarding oil which must be settled first, (before the water flows) nevertheless the market, another small early A.M. increase, is not predicting a grand announcement, more likely today’s meeting is setting the scene for the much anticipated Erdogan visit. However, for those of us that play chess this does have the appearance of being the ‘End Game’ where the major pieces make the decisive moves.

We shall see. (in the hope of not being one of the pawns that are sacrificed along the way. )

Reuters report 22 /8 small fall in the international oil price in anticipation of Iraq’s production increasing via the resumption of exports via Turkey.

Potentially positive developments seem to be falling into place at long last. All apart from the listed Kurdistan IOC’s share prices. So who’s missing something? Those that follow this situation daily here? Or those ‘professionals’ that influence share prices, often by knowing something most of us don’t. Can only hope the market has witnessed far too many false dawns and in the manner of crying wolf too often, anything truly positive sounds unbelievable. We shall see.

Reading between the lines, Baghdad first then onto Erbil where I doubt that the subject of the weather will figure prominently. Grand announcements might be made or left to the often proposed Erdogan visit.

By contrast the Iraq P.M. met Erdogan in Turkey 4 days prior to the pipeline closure, and I doubt that the weather figured to high in that confidential conversation.

Patience still required.

Lampedusa

Morbox published the link at 7.34 today. Perhaps overwhelmed by speculation. This is an Iraq oil report but the full story is only available for subscribers.

It seems that this message board is becoming a haven for the publication of endless theory, argument and speculation.

The facts however are simple and being lost within a minefield of possibilities;

Kurdistan attempted to achieve virtual independence from Iraq via oil income. Iraq have regained financial power over Kurdistan via the removal of Kurdistan’s sole source of income. The Kurds don’t like it but they do have some powerful cards of their own that they have played in negotiations with Iraq and a pragmatic agreement has been cobbled together. Meanwhile Turkey wish to retain their privileges regarding the export of Kurdish oil, and of course they will not pay a ridiculous fine. It has now taken far too long in our western minds for all of these financial and political interests to be settled as best they can be by so many self centred people. But as we all know the value of the oil is far too high to be left in the ground and we are now seeing that in ‘local’ sales. The good news confirmed today and not reflected in the share price is the fact that senior politicians from Iraq / Kurdistan and Turkey are at long last negotiating seriously, water / oil and the most important factor, the division of 💰 money.

In short it’s all about the power of money alongside idiotic religious and political dogma.

As patience will be rewarded can we cut the crap and wait for the reality to arrive.

Turkey’s foreign minister going to Iraq. Iraq’s oil minister to visit Turkey sounds positive, or is it another false dawn in advance of a grand meeting between Iraq PM / Erdogan as in the picture taken March 21. 4 days in advance of the pipeline closure. No need to guess what was agreed on that occasion as the KRG / IOC’s are paying the price.

As a ‘minor’ oil company we’d be foolish to pick SOMO for a fight on their territory. No we can only rely on the common sense belief that Iraq needs foreign investment and they will respect our contracts even if that’s not what they would like to do.

Patience seems to be on the verge of being rewarded

Interesting and something that many here have previously considered and posted about. ie. Oil for water. Obvious to say so but oil isn’t edible and Turkey have Iraq ‘over a barrel’ so why not exchange a relatively small 1.5 billion dollar fine and discounted oil that the Erdogan family can trade for water. Perhaps that’s simplistic in our terms but it’s certainly logical.