Member Info for rogthegamer

The risk factor that I did include with “simplistic” stuff was clearly present in the GKP share price (a PE of about 2 ) long before I entered the scene @143. Now be me foolish or be me not I do believe it’s a reasonable bet that there will, in time, be an upside. If not it’s not the end of my World. Patience required.

Yes Manan it will be a matter of days. How many is another matter. What I have consistently said is, is that it will be when and not if, because that pipeline will reopen, on what terms I like you can only guess

Yes Armasmaximilian. With that in mind I have changed my stance to hold from buy. Yes I am what I am and that’s the reason I wasn’t here for the dividends and came in as a risk taker directly after the line closure. On the plus side for those that have been here a while longer I’m usually right, although in the nature of such things no guarantees are available to those like me without inside information.

If today’s article in Rudaw had any substance I doubt that the shares would be falling. The market usually knows, therefore I’d wait for the shares to increase before the expectation of better news. That said perhaps the wimps are running for the hills after their nerves got the better of them. Personally I’m holding albeit as a gambler by name and by nature who sleeps at night no matter what happens here. Unlike GKP all of my eggs are not in one basket.

PUTUP share prices are not measured in the way you present. The value of a company is 1 determined by a multiple of the present income, the yield. 2 the future prospects and a prospective yield, 3 the risk. 4 the market sentiment ( bull or bear ) And of course broker recommendations that attract institutional investors that buy enough shares to tilt the market. In terms of GKP now the price will fluctuate depending upon the balance between buyers and sellers, some with access to more information than others, and when the current situation becomes clearer the calculated value of the company at the time, plus the prospects and risk ( let’s say £500 million in a medium case scenario) = £2.50 or so per share in issue. If a buyer for the entire company comes in after a bad conclusion to this situation @ £50 million for the entire company = 17pence per share ( And my next holiday will be in Bradford ) Or if the conclusion is very good £1 billion = £10 per share ( And I’m off to the Bahamas) In short PUTUP Cheer up.

Pessimism when patience is required. It’s not a question of if the pipeline opens but when. As for the GKP share price. If the pessimists prevail in the short term that will fall. However in the longer term it will depend upon the terms Iraq offers.

Until the official announcement of the pipeline being open and the RNS that confirms our terms it’s all speculation. I’ll add to that guesswork by saying that the oil needs to be sold and as the major international oil traders are all owed money ( 6 billion apparently) maybe they’ll need to be given a guarantee of payment that the less powerful oil companies might fear to demand.

While Speculation is interesting confirmed facts are thin on the ground. The market price seems to be holding up and that’s a comfort while i for one do all that I can do, wait. In the meantime i can only suppose that GKP see no point to publishing an RNS before a clear or certain position has been established, hopefully with the religious holidays over this shouldn’t be too long as my summer holiday payment date draws near.

With no firm information regarding what the situation will be in time there seems to be nothing that ordinary share holders can do other than wait in hope or sell in fear. One of those choices will be a wrong, so holding on in hope is O.K for those that can afford the potential cost, and that can’t should head for the door. Either way it’s an adult’s decision and no complaints are valid after the outcome.

Clearly today’s fall at GENL is not ex dividend related and more than likely a re-rating of risk similar to GKP as I previously mentioned. That said they don’t have all of their eggs in the one basket that GKP do.

If the situation is resolved shorty I’ll suppose that GKP will pay the proposed dividend, if not they might not. Friday and this weekend being a holiday I’ll expect more news next week, in the meantime it seems that the market is steady.

My point regarding GENL share price was secondary to the point of the post., however the ex. Dividend date doesn’t change the fact that GENL out performed GKP immediately following the pipeline closure but has now fallen in line with GKP.

The tone of posts here seems to be less optimistic than of late and I must admit that I was expecting an RNS before now. Could it be that we’re being impatient regarding what are complex negotiations with many different agendas to satisfy, things that the companies can’t comment upon until there is more clarity. The market price seems to be sitting on a fence with regards to the outcome and the recent fall at GNEL simply brings them into line with our own previous fall. While I’m still confident because it’s not a question of will the pipeline open but when it will, and on what terms the companies will be be given, “given” because they will have no choice other than to accept what that will be. On the plus side GKP can survive, as it already has, without being paid for a while yet, probably longer than Iraq, Kurdistan or Turkey without the oil money. That said Iraq may prefer to sell its own oil at a higher price and pay Kurdistan if the other interests wish to retain their previous positions Re. KRG discounted prices. In short Patience still required.

In hindsight it would have been better if GKP had merged with another oil company and all of our eggs wouldn’t be in a very volatile basket, perhaps that might be sensible outcome after this current uncertainty is resolved, and resolved it will be sooner or later. ( it’s looking later every day) Therefore I can only repeat my previous posts and say “patience required” because I came into this with my eyes open to the risk in the hope of a reward that I do believe will, in time, arrive. In short Hold and wait if you can afford it, if not you shouldn’t have been in it in the first place.

Is the share price, GKP / GENL saying something negative re. Meeting. As I previously mentioned some will know something more and before me

If the reported meeting, companies/ P.M. has / is taking place ( Kurdistan + 2 hours ) price sensitive information would have or will be revealed, that being so GKP should issue an RNS ASAP .

While I’m waiting to see who’s right and wrong between those that bought and sold recently I must admit to having some concerns regarding today’s share price in advance of the results from the reported meeting, ( there always seems to be some that know more in advance than me ) That said if the meeting is as reported between companies and the prime minister I can only assume that the decisions have been made and he will be informing them as opposed to negotiating, something done at a lower level,
On a different note I do wonder why GENL shares are higher than they were before the shutdown and GKP ‘s is so much lower. However, personally I’m long GKP and it shouldn’t be long before my position in a high risk / reward stock becomes clear.

Clearly a lot of interests must be satisfied before re-opening and small oil companies are low on that list, therefore all that I can can do as a small private shareholder is monitor the situation and wait. The good news is that those with the largest interests can’t afford to leave the line closed for too much longer.

With Genl at a one month high, above pre-closure price, and GKP steady in the market despite no announcement are there those that are ‘in the know’ Re. Pipeline etc. GKP price dropped on the Friday before closure announced on the following Monday. Patience could yet be rewarded.

Yes agreed and why wouldn’t they use any means available to avoid paying that award amount, plus stopping any further awards. That said I believe that Turkey buys about 30% of its oil from Iraq and while the current price of Russian oil is lower that’s not a supply that can be relied upon.