Member Info for Porky9

"The testing situation could easily get worse. The flu season hasn't even hit hard yet, which will strain labs even more. And demand for tests will likely surge more as more people rush to to get tested so they can see family for the holidays.
If this pandemic continues and and blows off the top of this, I can't tell you for certain that in a couple of weeks doomsday's not here for laboratory capacity,"
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/17/935809271/a-rush-on-coronavirus-testing-strains-laboratories-drives-supply-shortages?t=1605664359653

I think if GM can get some boots on the ground stateside or strengthen his distribution network stateside then frankly he could ramp up manufacturing capacity to the new five fold plus maximum and start shipping products like they are going out of fashion to the USA. The market out there is on a whole new level to our local UK and French market.

Lets face it:-
Population of France c 67m and UK c 66m = 133 m
Population of USA = 328 m

GLA

Per a report by Research And Markets, the global market for PCR is estimated to be $7.8 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach $11 billion by 2027 at a CAGR of 5%. Factors like the unrelenting spread of the pandemic and PCR testing being the gold standard in coronavirus testing, and the need for early detection of chronic diseases are expected to drive the market.

Research and Marketing Report unfortunately is a premium product at £3,800 so not possible to download.
https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/4419870/polymerase-chain-reaction-pcr-a-global-market

Innova lateral flow test is not fit for “test and release” strategy
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4469

So Moonshot now must surely be in dire need of a review ?-

Oh i know, lets mark down the SP on Pfiser news, then on Moderna news and whilst we are at it perhaps they can have another go when the AZ news drops OH and why not when one actually gets FDA approval try it again, perhaps when any other one comes through they can have another go, I mean how many times can you try and squeeze the juice out of an orange?
I mean surely at some point, the penny must drop that the bloody vaccine has buggar all effect on testing volumes , if anything it increases the volume!!!
Meanwhile, unfortunately its looking like the virus is already mutating with Russia reporting a new strain in one region. If so, the vaccine will render next to useless. But even if 100% effective its practically all of 2021 before any critical mass and we have no data regarding its long term effectiveness or safety or take up rates.
As for shaking the value down, NCYT is materially undervalued at this level, its a matter of time before it corrects but have to say its frustrating along the way.
Finally, don't know about other shareholders here but don't you just get royally p@ssed off by some of these bloody shorters and short termists visiting here spouting off about NCYT and how its set for failure and to sell now to save your soul. When the SP is on a bull run you never hear from them!!!
I just hope we get a break here and they land some material deals and results are ahead of the £300m that both brokers forecast and we get the SP rally from here we deserve
GLA

Oh i see, so the logic is that because the tests don't work we should stop testing all together.

No, they should wake up and use only PCR tests that do work, not waste money on crap made in China. I had to laugh when they said tests were from Innova a USA company, yes but they are made in bloody china. You couldn't make it up.

I find it absolutely staggering that the government are continuing to use those crappy Innova tests which are at best 84% accurate. They produce false positives but worse than that they produce many false negatives. How many people have already died from picking it up from someone that had a false negative result!!!

When will the penny drop that PCR is the only test to guarantee an accurate result

What frightens me more than anything is if they go with more of those Innova tests in a care home setting. I can just imagine it. I feel like i just want to shake Matt Han****, i mean what kind of moron is he? Can he not see the facts in front of him

I really give up at times.

SP Angel initiated coverage on Novacyt and indicated a price target of 1,463p and said the option for Department of Health and Social Care to take up to 700 additional PCR instruments could mean a further step change in revenues.

Both SP Angel and Numis are working on £ 300 million revenue for the full year results yet we think they will exceed this based on the regular large sized orders they continue to process. Following todays vaccine news Numis continued to support their valuation.

Meanwhile, increasing sales volume for Novacyt is now expected to continue throughout 2021 especially as its now practically confirmed that the future Covid-19 vaccines will need many months into 2021 to roll out. I actually believe a lot of media and the market are currently caught up in the hype surrounding vaccines at the moment - there are still a lot of unknowns yet but what is certain is the regular need to continue to test people.

As it stands there is absolutely no chance that any demand in sales will collapse overnight. If anything demand will continue to increase thoughout the world and supply can't meet demand as it is!

In the meantime, Novacyt is using the cash flows generated from its Covid-19 testing kits to strengthen its position across the entire diagnostics market. Todays update on R&D activity was brilliant, this is a world class business in the making and ultimately the share price has to reflect that.

GLA

@mburns

I absolutely agree, the NHS is changing and Diagnostics is a serious requirement going forward as we prepare for what will be the new normal.

Testing will need to continue for many years to come. We can also expect all of next year to continue with increasing testing volumes as any vaccines are rolled out. IMO The diagnostics industry as a whole will begin to increase its recognition and value in the market during 2021.

I find it absolutely incredible that in just less than one day this board gets a flood of vultures offering us their pearls of wisdom about how the vaccine is going to be the golden bullet and to to sell now to save our souls. These are posters that have never posted on this board before nor have they done any research into Novacyt or what it's about what so ever.

The two brokers are pointing to £ 13.65 and £ 14.60 respectively. Both valuations are based on Full year revenues of £ 300 m. I think those closely following this are confident from our own calculations that NCYT will exceed the £ 300 m mark and any large order secured will take us a material step up higher.

Todays SP drop imo was completely overdone. Todays update was brilliant and the long term prospects for NCYT are stronger than ever.

GLA

Of course what we are not considering is that with positive data from the care home trials even if the government fail to award NCYT any of the contract, we still have the rest of the world to go at :)

Not secured FDA yet either
Not only that ODX is up in the blue today yet it did 9m last year and has a market cap of £110m and a mere £3m at its half year point. Meanwhile NCYT SP gets a beating today and its valued at little more than its order book value! you couldn't make it up. An order under £20m doesn't even warrant an RNS !!!

Indeed a brilliant update this morning, fantastic progress

With short positions closing SP will close significantly higher

Have we all noticed that last night on this BB and for a lot of this morning we have had lots of helpful posters letting us know that we are all doomed and the SP is going crash.

Utter Bollo@ks - its ulmost like a group out involved in shorting activity

Only issue here is that buying volume is now greater than selling volume and to make matters worse for them a number will start closing positions and any still left short will pay a heavy price to get back in.

Frankly the Vaccine news was already priced in, this time they have underestimated the retail support for this stock, we are buying more on the dips now not selling :)

Bring it on....

We don’t even know how long any protection lasts, what percentage take up rate we will see, what reduction rates in the spread we will see, if people immunised can still pass on the virus, any long term term effects and it will take months, well towards end of next year at best to gain any critical mass.
Dont get me wrong vaccine progress is a good thing in the fight against this awful disease but we will still need testing all the way.

Shame the fantastic news update from this morning gets possibly over shadowed by Shorters efforts and over the top price manipulation on vaccine news that we already expected / was priced in.

I wouldn't mind but it hasn't even got FDA approval yet, we haven't ordered any, its not much different to what is already out from Pfizer and its been tested on 95 people. We still don't know its long term effectiveness and moreover, it won't change the worldwide testing requirements!!!

It changes nothing. This Just needs time for it to sink in!!

just amazing... didn't think i would get this buying opportunity

Very little selling volume and price drops to this level on effectively nothing we didn't already know.

Tell you something I just wouldn't want to be caught going short on this, retail are not selling - price reverse in progress

GLA

Didn't think i would see anything £8 again.
Learnt my lesson from last time and hitting them hard when they try it on.
Meanwhile ODX was actually up 6% in live time yet its revenues were a mere £3m - Jesus NCYT did a £20 m order and no need to put out an RNS - talk about market manipulation, FCK them

Just got another £ 8 k at 7.95
Bring it on....
Cant free up cash quick enough

- Its not available in the UK
- We haven't ordered any
- It puts us in the same position as the Pfizer vaccine
- it hasn't changed the requirement for testing one jot...

Buy on the dips for sure...