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@Robdog67, is making a fair point about the state of the AIM per sae and some of these penny share plays. The poster makes a valid point frankly. Some clearly do abuse the trust and support the SH community gives them. Do not diss a posters comments because you don't agree. Put forward your counter argument. The community here is to discuss opportunity pros and cons not just act as an echo chamber.
I await with interest next weeks presentation here, the delivery so far has been pitiful, doing extensive development work for token fees also undervalues them which is not great. I am interested why they did that. Good luck
@LTbeliver
So that's your logic for investment. Previous RNS flow means one must be due? Lets hope its a positive one then!!!
Look, based on the diabolical actual delivered revenue results in H1, this really is a binary play now:-
Either they confirm a decent sized order fully paid up fairly imminently to stave off a placing OR they place at discount to raise more cash to give them the required time to deliver. Its that simple. One or the other has to happen.
In the meantime, more fluff RNS reach news releases about jam tomorrow or what could be wont cut it, Investors want to see proven delivery. They are at the stage now where the figures must do the talking. Good luck.
MCap was previously £2.25m in April 21 at the last restructure. Back then the business was far better positioned and had a more manageable cash burn < £1.5m p.a. They will soon be out of cash again and need your support. Mcap now is bloated at £ 4.2m but market conditions have changed materially in that time. The business now has more shares in issue, still never invoiced a thing in15 years and to put this into perspective even using the April 21 valuation that’s an SP of about 1.5p.
But no matter which way I cut this I can’t even get back to the previous valuation because put simply: where is the value here now?
1. 201 is going nowhere, neglected, and likely superseded, 15 years old and needs reformulating and new patents, the BODs managing of this asset has been a total disaster, still locked in with a worthless agreement with a stateside start up. Meanwhile, 301 off same tech is also doing zero. The new BOD need to come clean with investors, drop THX and put the work and investment in to try and reposition it and connect with a well funded biotech, either that or cut losses and close it down – Valuation Minimal.
2. 18mths ago they should have added more evaluations to ensure more pipeline coming through. By neglecting this area of this business in favour of the labs they now have next to nothing in progress. A total failure IMO and needs the pipeline rebuilding which will take time.
3. 401 was moved to another start up trying to get funding for itself to survive being a Phoenix business so little chance of any value there in next 12 months IMO again Valuation Minimal.
4. CLX - this one has potential value. It needs at least another year development and £400k more investment to try and position it. So, Jam tomorrow for 2025 but won’t be contributing to keep VAL alive short term – Valuation I put at £1m top side.
5. Labs - what a farce, zero paying customers, decision to buy cell samples sitting in freezers from Imogen that couldn't make its business viable even with 32 staff at its height and the current BOD want to chuck more of your cash at it. I put lab assets at £500k top side if they could find a buyer. The lab business itself has ZERO value as it stands as it has no business, is incredibly labour intensive and IMO a total liability until it can break even.
So in all, I calculate about £1.5m of assets and a cash burn requirement of £2.5m to feed directors to maintain lifestyles hence why I can't an EV even anything remotely close to where it is today or was previously.
With a new BOD and a penny raise if they can get it, this remains high risk investment. They are certainly in a worse place than before and a heck of a lot of work will be required to turn this around now, that’s If Adrian pulls it off and can secure the support and financial backing to do so.
If he can’t, it’s the end of the line IMO once the cash runs out in a few weeks time. I genuinely think its touch and go now.
@PM2022
Are you still at it in total denial about the next funding round?
Not sure where you get this BS from about the cash runway to 2025. Prior to these four additions to the BOD the cash runway was scheduled to last at BEST until about the end of Sept 24 at the existing burn rate.
Now, with the new BOD still not finalised and the increased cost base with this caretaker board, the cash runway will run out sooner. My estimate is now sometime in August but either way my point is once the new board is established and in situ ready for H2 1/7/24 the new board won’t want to drive this business forward with just a few weeks cash left.
IMO they will need to raise and probably best to get all the bad news out at once, especially once it’s finally confirmed THX is a dead duck.
Watch this space £1.5m raise at 1p remains my call providing Suzy, Kevin and Gerry off the board - if they remain I can’t see anyone mad enough to invest for more of the same. The true enterprise value of this business as it stands IMO does not justify a higher placing price than 1p to deliver even the most adventurous investor a decent ROI potential.
Adrian really needs to pull his finger out now, offload the dead wood, get the new board in situ with new vision for end of June ready for H2. Get cash burn back to under £350k a quarter again to a more manageable level. The clock is ticking.
IF he can do that, there is a chance for this to be a recovery play later this year. In the meantime, the stock remains totally uninvestable.
Pork’s
What was the net loss for the year? I’m guessing as H1 was a loss of £1.4 and sales were slightly higher to the YE the total loss must be in the region of £ 2.6m and they have £1.2m of cash left.
Looks like they need to pull their finger out and get some signed paid for orders in. No freebies, plain old fashioned raising invoices for services required.
LOL
You three are like a tag team of rampers...
Look, based on the results they are out of cash in circa 8 weeks. So either one of two things has to happen:-
a) They get a decent paid chunk of cash in from a client to avoid a discounted placing
b) They have no option but to raise at discount to keep operations going through to said deal
The CEO clearly wants to avoid a discounted placing at low prices and that's a positive, they need a stronger SP and i suspect that was what the very rampy RNS was about including non relevant references to mega deals elsewhere plus a couple of holders from the last raise averaging down a bit to also bolster the SP but fact remains one of the above two events has to happen.
For me i will buy on proof of delivery not on what might be, the revenue in the first half was lower than my local subway sandwich bar and that was concerning IMO especially in view of the high cash burn. Why was so much business being lost if the technology is as strong as they indicate.
Anyhow, we will know soon enough but stock remains for traders and gamblers until we see that proof - good luck
You are correct with your assumption at £550k pcm burn rate.
Having read the statement twice I still can’t see what the CAB figure is at 31/12/23, have I missed it somewhere?
Trying to establish the remaining cash runway
Rampers looking for any news they can jump on, why not.
Hopefully will result in a more meaningful order but with getting on for £2m cash burn per month they will need a lot of £150k orders to fill that.
Contract over 6 months yet represents about 3 days of costs, still hopefully go on to something bigger.
@Mozax
Company has about 8 weeks of cash runway left
I will get excited when they actually confirm a deal that brings cash in before they run out.
Otherwise it’s yet again another SH call for cash
Jam levels high - actual delivery low
Pump news prior to placing - good luck
Mention of others deals in market is not relevant imo. It’s designed to try and excite with potential jam
News they need to put out is we have received x cash in the bank for a signed contract, not what might be.
Well not all business is good business, this could be the issue maybe?
If you are taking on development work which will ultimately benefit this "leading global provider" why are they doing it for a token fee? it totally devalues the skills and services of their team. Time and resource that could go into a paying client.
I think that a lot of these small bios are so into the sciences that they just lack any kind of commercial acumen, they will do everything for free as long as shareholders will keep adding the cash to maintain them. This is not a direct criticism of FAB its all over the sector frankly.
@Kheldar
No, unfortunately it remains totally uninvestable until the BOD clear out happens. Until the cash draining dead wood is removed you are kind of stuck with this nonsense.
I still have hope Adrian can make it happen although really disappointed that the requisition was removed as we could be rid of both Kevin and Martin end of this month as a start, now we are stuck with them both, but i live in hope.
Total madness to do the same things and expect a different outcome. Changes need to happen.
@OB
Hope you and family are well, health is wealth as you always say.
Sure, IF Adrian gets it right for H2 he has a chance and it then becomes a recovery play, although i am concerned that the requisition was removed enabling Kevin and Martin to stay, i believe i speak for many in saying that was a mistake as SH really wanted the opportunity to see the back of those two at the earliest, anyhow not long until end of June.
Pork's
P.S I know you are also a fan of the shiny stuff, even i was surprised at the recent Gold run.... nice one.