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@HD
Fully diluted 132,348,673 ordinary shares in issue at 6p = ÂŁ 7,940,920 so call it just shy of an ÂŁ 8 m MCap
Obviously I remain bearish with this BOD in situ but, this still represents a massive premium to the April 21 restructure at ÂŁ2.25m MCap and i consider the business is in a worse position today with cash burn back up to pre crash levels, the time and cash required from here to establish the start up lab side and i genuinely don't believe either of the LOIs will be executed in respect of 201 and 401.
Once its confirmed that THX either don't complete the merger or they complete and there is no cash there or Euda want to renegotiate terms IMO the SP at this level will be toast and head sharpish back to the ÂŁ2m Mcap level. There is nothing else here to deliver value in the short term.
The ONLY reason they got the placing away at this ridiculously high level IMO was because of the hype and pump campaign from 5p and traders shorting on the pumped share price to buy back at 6p. Come September they will be back for more. Sorry but its how i see it.
@betterlife
I need BOD changes myself before i would consider as i don't see where the value will come from and I have zero confidence in the BOD as it stands but, I really hope you are right and it comes good for you. LTH have been through the Mill here and deserve a break frankly.
Hey, you never know that 50k buy could be Suzy finally seeing sense! Take care now
Pork's
@betterlife
No. Stock remains uninvestable with the current BOD in situ - Changes desperately required but you are stuck until the June AGM and by then the SP will be down to about 2p IMO.
Also the Market Cap is materially too high in relation to where they are with the business. Neither LOI in respect of 201 or 401 will be executed this year IMO. Lab start up will take years and LOTS more cash to establish - its a labour intensive business, CLX needs 400k spending on it so that one is at least 18mths off and there is next to nothing left. They will be back again in September for a further raise hence why Suzy has only spent ÂŁ4k on the stock despite earning over ÂŁ160k a year plus benefits.
Until the BOD changes come this will remain a lifestyle, lab pet project and a business in a continual raise, spend, raise, spend, consolidate cycle - sorry but you did ask.
@Badsterman
It would be an absolute travesty if Resolution 2 is passed allowing them to award 10m of options after the way this has been played. If Adam backs that he will seriously tank in my estimation unless Suzy is awarding him a chunk for loyalty. Will know soon enough.
And yes, you guessed, my flag is in the sand for September. Business as usual.
ONLY way that events can change here now is with BOD changes IMO. So you are looking at end of June AGM providing Adam doesn't torpedo SH votes and maintain the status quo again. Doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome is madness.
You say the arrogance of Dr Cox beggars belief.... totally agree.
Perhaps he should be known as Doc Cox. Anyone remember him from the 80's, "That's Life" and his top selling record with Ivor Biggun:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wP8o7Xyrg-Y
LMOL. Words just fail me.
@Riddler
You are a trader and thatâs your business, I donât care but I stand by it was condescending comment you gave âHave you listened?â In reply to a forum poster. Itâs evident they know what was âsaidâ they just donât know if there is any future in it.
As for âmy anticsâ, there is nothing deceitful in discussing the pros and cons of a stock play. Donât know where you get off. The whole point of these forums is to discuss the viability of an investment. Good or Bad, where I invest my cash I want to know as much about the business as I can find out. Other stocks are for other forums not here.
Good luck continually ramping PYC
@Riddler (Now KA Laura2022)
You really can come over as condescending at times. @gimmeshelter is fully aware of the ramps and BS of the PAST like everyone else.
What the poster wants to know is if 201 is dead in the water or not.
I would say based on the fact that no cash landed from THX before the year end and yet another timeline missed resulting in yet another discounted placing you already have your answer. But letâs have it from the horses mouth at the EGM
@Theorist
Thanks for the reply, appreciated,
This is certainly on my watch list, product side is certainly impressive. My only concern is the cash burn. They believe they can be cash flow positive in 2025 but a quick calculation of CAB at 30/6 indicates a burn of circa 20m in H1 with 26m remaining so if they spend same in H2 we would have about ÂŁ6m left in Q1 24 so looks to me a further raise bolted on first quarter which could be why they are at the pitching event on the 11th Jan. you donât bother with pitching events if you are fully funded. Not a bad thing but I would want to know what that looks like and indications they can make this viable.
Speedboat is VERY impressive for sure but MCap is also fairly racey IMO. I will attend the pitching event if I can get down to London. Add a few in the next placing if they can demonstrate stronger fiscal control.
Good luck with this one, a solid base they are building from for sure
We had a similar run jan 23 when the share price doubled just before a big business update and drifted back over the weeks that followed . I would agree this is likely same and CE mark approval most likely. They were expecting it in the third quarter so looks like some in the know buying ahead of the news.
MCap has doubled to ÂŁ17m no idea what value would be with CE approval, stick finger in the air. Have to raise for sure soon but much better position to do it from. Make hay whilst the sun shines I guess.
Happy New Year to all and a better 2024
@betterlife
For clarification, The current BOD remain, you are not voting directorships, votes for board positions will be requested at the end of June 24 AGM not now.
The General Meeting called for 4th Jan 24 is asking you to vote to pass three resolutions. In laymenâs terms, we have 102 million shares currently in issue. The resolutions are:
1. To issue 30 million New Shares at 6p to support the fundraise
2. To give authority to issue a further 10 million New Shares on top for OPTIONS as they see fit at ANY price they like.
3. Agree to give up pre-emotion rights to enable passing of Resolution 1
The full details found here:
https://www.valirx.com/sites/default/files/2023-12/Notice%20of%20General%20Meeting%20January%202024%20Circular%20%28FINAL%29.pdf
I asked this question on ADVFN but nobody so far can answer it:-
Anyone here with solid research can you tell me in layman's terms in relation to the NCI collaboration what they mean by the statement:-
âThe validation will be run at NCI's laboratories by their staff and antibodies identified pursuant to the Agreement would be retained by NCIâ
So are they saying, here is our catalogue of antibodies, take your pick, NCI then spend a couple of years R&D on them against diseases they are working on finding cures for, NCI if it goes well find that antibody 1234 is effective against X and on result, it validates that FAB have a useful catalogue of antibodies but the antibody 1234 that works in this example is retained by NCI for drug dev to commercialisation?
Iâm struggling to work out how FAB would financially benefit here in the event of success? If this was a license deal they would get milestone payments? In this example it looks like NCI get the catalogue for nothing but obviously have cost to R&D with it but itâs retained by NCI on success ???
Anyone care to enlighten me what Iâm missing here?
Can anyone tell me what the MCap was when this raised significant capital at ÂŁ1.80 without me having to look it up.
I can see the SP has gone up from the 20p Raise to 37p and we are at ÂŁ132m value today so Iâm guessing the last raise was based on about ÂŁ60m ? But how does that relate to the earlier raise?
Has the value of the business gone up or down over the last three years? Thanks
Itâs also âclearly laid outâ why the plebs should all fall in line and also vote Resolution 2 through to give them 10 million share options to further reward their greed.
That way neither Suzy or the BOD will ever need to worry about if they should buy shares ever again. Just needs Adam to pass Resolution 2 at the EGM and the BOD can then split the 10m shares into free or low ball options for them ready to cash in should the SP ever go anywhere in the future for zero risk.
Nice work if you can get it. VAL 2 Investors Nil
As for THX merging with EUDA I have never understood the fixation. IF they merge a) there is no guarantee they will go on and raise cash b) if they ever secure cash as the new entity they are well within their rights to renegotiate the LOI terms anyhow and c) There is NO requirement for a NASDAQ listed company to tell VAL anything.
IF the THX /EUDA merge doesnât happen as a courtesy THX can inform VAL AFTER the event but itâs not essential. VAL only need to know if the LOI will be executed or not. THX/EUDA merging or not is a mere side show frankly.
As for the placing, it was essential based on the current cash burn. They were forecast ÂŁ9k CAB at 31/12 and no possible way to pay Jan overheads unless either THX handed the cash over or SH support this placing.
Anyhow, I expect they will come back and raise more next September anyhow, so another opportunity later to get âdiscounted sharesâ
@Colboltblue
In my considered opinion, your best shot at a spike short term will be if following the placing THX merge with EUDA. BUT it will be VERY short lived, you will have almost a third of the stock here in at 6p with their fingers on the sell button plus I genuinely believe that even in the event of a merger a) no cash and I consider little chance of them going on to raise any and b) in the wild unlikely chance they did raise anything they would most certainly renegotiate the terms of the LOI, possibly no cash upfront as market conditions have materially changed and they would be doing their own shareholders a disservice if they didnât renegotiate a better deal.
IF the merge doesnât happen then frankly its game over for 201. Itâs a 14 year old drug now and modern technologies have likely advanced ahead of it.
As for the 401 deal well its gone to another private company to be positioned. Why VAL canât do that is beyond me but at the end of the day, do investors want to gamble that another one year old phoenix business will raise north of ÂŁ20m during 2024? Most unlikely IMO and as such I just think the option wonât be taken up in 2024.
And as for the Labs business, well as I have said many times. Its going to take a heck of a lot of time and more cash. I question spending 600k on building a Biobank catalogue, Imogen had previously spent millions on that biobank and still couldnât make it financially viable, its all fine and dandy building an amazing Biobank, but you need to secure orders off the back of it. Most UK labs are loss making, the best in the market can only deliver up to a 20% return, its a highly labour-intensive business, they would probably need something like north of ÂŁ10m revenue generate gross profits to cover existing overheads and thatâs assuming no increase in head count. VAL have three scientists, Imogen had something like 36 staff at their height and still couldnât turn in a result.
My precis is negative I appreciate, no surprise there but you will have plenty of time to buy under the placing price next year, I consider the stock uninvestable with the current BOD and my call is that the SP will drift further in the run up to the AGM June 24 and in September 24 they will be looking at placing 16 most likely at 1p if the BOD still remain. The comment @LWHL made about the board being âhaughtyâ frankly is understatement of the year, I think they are treating shareholders with utter contempt, like you are all idiots that cant read a resolution, and it needs to stop but they can afford to do so as Shareholders keep coming back for more, so why not?
Finally, IF Adam votes Resolution 2 through to grant them 10m of options to distribute amongst themselves he really will tank in shareholders opinions. I really hope he doesnât do that.
Pork's
@BagMan
Resolution 2: Share Options 10 m
Shareholders should totally vote NO against this resolution. IMO Not one person has done anything to Justify in any shape or form the awarding of share options.
AND if they intend to use this to award those in the placing, its just awarding greed on greed frankly.
I would also ask why despite intending to dilute shareholders by a third with a 26m + 4m share raise on top of the 102m in issue why they want another 10m on top of that for "share options"
Any of those options being awarded to Adam?
@All
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and New Year
Not long now, already starting to wind down and time to spend time with family, loved ones and raise a glass to our absent friends .
As for the markets, well should improve H2 2024 and really with worldwide events and the things that personally count, none of this here really matters in the bigger picture does it.
Have a good one
@TheBasher
I can feel your pain here and totally get it. The utter contempt for shareholders is truly shocking and unlikely to change anytime soon with the BOD as it stands.
As if adding 31m new shares to the existing 102m in issue doesnât dilute shareholders enough they slip in Resolution 2 to pass another 10m for share options on top on the suggestion that itâs reasonable âdue to the companies size and stage of developmentâ - really?
There isnât anything I can think of to paint a more positive picture other than it will give them the liquidity to carry on as normal and probably raise again in September 24.
I do question the use of funds having read both reports, realistically IMO we need board changes, a reduction in cash burn and directional changes, Iâm amazed that ÂŁ600k is ear marked for further integration of the biobank for example but in all honesty shareholders wonât ever see these changes until Adam is ready. Votes cast at the AGM kind of proves the point, as long as he supports the raises and votes them through nothing will change it will remain as a lifestyle raise, spend, raise, spend, consolidate business as I see it.
Frankly a tragic situation of what could be.