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That's an interesting idea. I'm sure GM must be reviewing all options now regarding how to resolve this issue in the best way going forwards. After the massive fall back in the SP to the £ 7 -£ 8 range GM commented:-
"Junior markets are sentiment led and despite fundamentals can react irrationally. IMO eventually sentiment will catch up with fundamentals. If they don’t then we can leverage these fundamentals in a different way to address the fickle nature of junior markets"
Not totally sure what that could look like but your idea is not a bad one. Possibilities:-
1. The Buy back to reduce Liquidity. Like this however probably better to spend on spend on acquisitions (maybe a bit of both)
2. A move off the Bourse to a bigger more mature market with a greater reach - love this idea
3. Encourage a partner they work closely such as AZN to BUY in and take a chunk of stock and reduce liquidity that way as a long term partner.
4. Once they have the future plan set talk to a major VC and see if they are interested in buying in again to reduce liquidity and support longer term SP growth.
Interesting times.... some good ideas...
LMOL, perhaps coining the "Gold Standard" for Novacyt is just like one of those Urban Myths a bit like:-
Teenager enjoying himself in his bedroom with his GFs knickers on his head only to later find his mum had left a cup a coffee and biscuits on his bedside table whilst he was at it.
Or perhaps the couple at the cinema eating KFC in the dark to find it was a breadcrumb rat ...
Do agree with you.
Now we are now in a news rich period which should also help us create fresh interest. With only 71m of shares in issue it won't take much to move us up a gear now, very confident.
Within less than 8 weeks now we will have further clarity on;
All the product roll outs, GM has already said sales will be "Significant" for new Antigen tests, the second generation Antibody test, the awards won, DHSC position clarity either way, confirmed accounts, H1 trading figures, the forward vision update, a possible acquisition, clarity on international orders including the USA position, take off of Airport testing, saliva tests with AZN (remember the 40,000 test data), numerous partners, and so much more.
The video guy has also been out filming and we are yet to see the care home and POC videos he was working on yet.
A lot going on, Go Novacyt...
According to an article in the Guardian
They have the take up rate up to 46% but are now struggling to increase take up due to hesitancy over the vaccines:-
"Declining demand for Covid-19 vaccines in the US is causing states across the country to refuse their full allocations of doses from the federal government, despite concerted efforts to raise national take-up rates"
This was picked up during the Novatalk discussion on Friday and will be a contributing factor to a continuing testing requirement.
Meanwhile, over in South Africa stock piles of vaccine were completely wasted as they were not used quick enough and went past their use by date. Again, hesitancy over safety of the vaccine and a blatant outright refusal to be vaccinated.
For what its worth i have taken the effort to answer a few in French on Twitter. On a positive note the shorts have to be brought back. It would be fantastic if GM could take us off that crappy exchange but as we only have 71m of shares anyhow it wouldn't take much to move the SP material higher if investors started returning here on the AIM side.
Regarding the cash question, SP Angel were forecasting Net Cash € 278.1 m for the 2021 full year. So that's about £ 242m Sterling. We will know for sure when the H1 results are confirmed but even allowing for the DHSC revenue adjustment and not counting any possible cash profits from future substantial LFT deals we must be getting on for north of £150m to £160m to the end of the June half year.
They need to start spending some of this on acquisitions now, that's what we want to see
Just wanted to say that I'm delighted you are back in supporting. SH have obviously had it tough recently, really tough and the shorter's and traders have so far been winning the war. A lot of Long term holders obviously capitulated their positions and i know it hasn't been easy for you.
It's time now for the tables to turn. Really wish you well with your investment, its our turn now!! Appreciate your research contributions.
ONCOLOGICA UK LIMITED
Company number 09305104
Has about £ 3m of debt including SH funds so i would say YES as part of a stable like Novacyt could be a very good fit and Novacyts established network could further support.
As an acquisition Novacyt could offset against Tax !!! These are the sort of deals Novacyt need to be doing, i'm sure they have a few in their sights :)
Would you be so kind as to NOT list the resellers and partners that are selling our tests on this open forum, just say 200 or however many it is please.
If you wish to maintain them on an data file that is your business but we are now moving into a highly competitive phase of tests for travel. New entrants entering the market and if i was a sales rep for any of those i would copy your list and phone each and every one of them offering them discounted deals.
Hence damaging the very business you invest in. Please would you consider this request
It's one of hundreds of examples, little point in comparing. I have seen so many now that i have lost count.
There is no logic to our Share Price being this low other than its been shorted and traded to death. Put simply, It does not reflect the true value of the business - simple.
Question is what can be done about it? A move off the Bourse and Aim would be my call frankly however, with so much news and updates due at any moment it should be a matter of time before the values are properly reflected. Uncertainty will be removed at least. Time will tell.
I continue to add with the confidence that the position will change soon. GM must be aware of this situation now and its not good for the business to have a market cap this low especially as they want to make material acquisitions going forward not to mention the fact that GM intends to position the business as a mid cap.
Lets see where we are after the H1, at least we will have full clarity of the businesses full position at that point. I am currently trying to look at the current low share price as a short window buying opportunity. I'm buying into the shorts anyhow confident it will rally on news.
You are so absolutely right
And of course, Long Covid is something often swept under the carpet but the numbers are increasing and it really is just awful to see anyone suffering with this condition.
These really are challenging times
You take care now
The discussion was eye opening to a certain extent.
It was good that Matt HanCo@k was watching as it leaves the Government in no doubt that a layered approach will be required for evermore.
Choices we make will define the outcome but essentially vaccination, testing and screening will remain along with containment in severe break out situations as we learn to live with the virus.
Vaccination > Testing > Social Responsibility
Any notion that LFT will replace PCR is dead in the water as both testing methods are essential.
Vaccination > Even those vaccinated can spread the virus albeit in reduced numbers. The shocking reality that even in the USA after the initial surge of people coming forward wanting the vaccine the take up rate is dropping off due to people NOT wanting to be vaccinated. We are talking nearly half the population and that’s in a considered developed nation, so the Virus and variants will continue to spread and evolve.
Testing > LFT Like raking the lawn for leaves, we need to keep doing it over and over quickly to find as many cases as possible BUT they still need to be then verified by PCR to identify what they are. The more cases identified the more PCR required. PCR is absolutely essential. We need to keep on top of variants especially Variants of Concern as they can undermine the vaccine and may be more contagious as already identified. We need to then support sequencing to stay ahead of the VOCs.
Social Responsibility > Containment would be required in outbreaks. The world is not safe until we are all safe. Those vaccinated can still spread the virus. More people need to come forward for vaccination. If everyone socially distanced, it would help eradicate the virus but that is not a reality hence we have to learn to live with it.
The key take for Novacyt investors is that we have all bases covered for our supply chains with both PCR and LFTs and demand will remain.
Diagnostics is here to stay, and the UK is a WORLD leader. In my considered opinion Novacyt’s diagnostics will continue to evolve as they are ahead of the curve on R&D and as such revenues will continue and become proven and the business ultimately will be re-rated properly as such.
I am pro biased for Novacyt I accept; however, this really is a golden opportunity to hold shares here like no other. The discussion only endorses my belief of the importance of Novacyt on the world stage. As I said before Novacyt is History in the Making.
Soon the market will not ignore the investment opportunity here imo.
It did close blue. But it could well have been 5-6% up today without these games.
On a positive, the stock will ultimately need to be brought back and when it does it will help feed a rally
Annoying but wanted to share the position with you.
Oh I'm expecting a number of the usual posters to try and create miss trust and distraction on Twitter, to support the short, all part of the deal really.
A number of small private shorters imo did close and the SP was climbing today.
I still stand by the fact that there is little to be gained but they are banking on retail selling and not buying. This is just one shorting firm. I agree with HarChris that we have a number of catalysts that can and will push the SP higher. The sooner they arrive the better.
In the meantime you have four options; 1) Sell out and feed them, 2) Go short yourself and join them but keep one eye open in case they close first and stuff you, a number have taken that call, 3) hold and ignore them or 4) my option buy into their short in the hope others do, news drops and it becomes very expensive for them to close.
At least you know that 4.85 Euro is their in price and that was possible to support a similar level short placed earlier. So its not going to take much next week with news to take them out thats for sure.
Good luck for next week
Today the SP was starting to build nicely , climbing steady was about 4.6% up.
I was watching the transaction on the bourse and i noticed a big sell at 15.47 when the bid was at 4.85 Euro. The price dropped immediately after it. See the chart whilst its still live:-
I now find that World Quant increased their short to 1.06 today:-
So they offloaded 184,600 shares and forced the price down
So World Quant are short 1.06 or 752,600 shares
Other are at 0.48% or 340,800 shares
So retail have not been selling today, these b@stards are shorting the stock in the hope that retail follow and sell to support their short.
Not sure what GM can do about this but the sooner we can create some buying activity and blow them out the water the better
Low Volume day
More activity on the AIM than the Bourse
Feeling Very Confident
Interested to see what UK government confirm at 5.00 regarding travel.
Hopefully kick start additional revenues from travel testing shortly.
Its also possible to only declare and pay VAT on Paid collected Invoices.
Otherwise you could end up paying thousands in VAT on potential orders not completed paid or collected.
We don't know their exact position for sure but will once the audited accounts are published. Not long to wait now.
Personally i believe that the DHSC issue is a case of over ordering. then later trying to wiggle out of paying for minimum contract order, which is what we have seen elsewhere. If this is the case, Novacyt have delivered products in good faith, products that they could of sold elsewhere and DHSC should do the honourable thing and settle.
Time will tell anyhow. But based on what we are seeing now i can't see there being much adjustment to Q4, in fact there is a possibility DHSC owe Novacyt some missing payments!!!
This is the time when its quite to be adding and investors fearful.
Within less than 8 weeks now and also during that time window you will have clarity on all the product roll outs, GM has already said sales will be "Significant" Antigen tests, the second generation Antibody test, awards won, DHSC position clarity either way, confirmed accounts, H1 trading figures, forward vision, a possible acquisition, clarity on international order including the USA position, take off of Airport testing, saliva tests with AZN (remember the 40,000 test data), numerous partners, and so much more. The video guy is also filming something and we are yet to see the care home and POC videos he was working on yet.
This is a hot news period, its your call what you do but personally i would give it at least that time line. GM has not failed yet on a product validation, they are veterans at it and well connected at PD. Sure the SP is on its ars@, its totally disappointing, we are rated at fire sale levels but with everything falling into place finally the upside could well be significant yet from here.
I'm still doing everything i can to add, Good Luck what ever your call
Take Care now
Well not quite a rally just yet, but slowly gaining traction ahead of the talk.
With the DHSC now having published the spends to the end of December yesterday and of course the election out the way if feels like a chance of an update very shortly on DHSC more likely. The 30 day arbitration period can of course conclude at any point during that time time.
Here's to a VERY positive outcome
But its a great sign that they are closing
Significantly better gains to be had in Crypto at the moment. If you are going to trade, that's your market at the moment.
Just waiting on Word Quant now to close, that's a big short exposure they have. At the very least i would expect them to reduce exposure here especially at these price levels.
Time will tell
Feeling very positive about the outlook from here
GLA Genuine Holders