Well not all business is good business, this could be the issue maybe?
If you are taking on development work which will ultimately benefit this "leading global provider" why are they doing it for a token fee? it totally devalues the skills and services of their team. Time and resource that could go into a paying client.
I think that a lot of these small bios are so into the sciences that they just lack any kind of commercial acumen, they will do everything for free as long as shareholders will keep adding the cash to maintain them. This is not a direct criticism of FAB its all over the sector frankly.
@Kheldar
No, unfortunately it remains totally uninvestable until the BOD clear out happens. Until the cash draining dead wood is removed you are kind of stuck with this nonsense.
I still have hope Adrian can make it happen although really disappointed that the requisition was removed as we could be rid of both Kevin and Martin end of this month as a start, now we are stuck with them both, but i live in hope.
Total madness to do the same things and expect a different outcome. Changes need to happen.
@OB
Hope you and family are well, health is wealth as you always say.
Sure, IF Adrian gets it right for H2 he has a chance and it then becomes a recovery play, although i am concerned that the requisition was removed enabling Kevin and Martin to stay, i believe i speak for many in saying that was a mistake as SH really wanted the opportunity to see the back of those two at the earliest, anyhow not long until end of June.
Pork's
P.S I know you are also a fan of the shiny stuff, even i was surprised at the recent Gold run.... nice one.
@PM2022
It really is like Deja Vu with you, we have the exact same conversation every time. You try and convince that the cash runway is longer than it is, then when they place act shocked that you didn’t see it coming, wake up.
Let me give you the maths in simplistic form.
Skint at end of December 23 except a few quid. Cash burn averaging £200k pcm. They raise £1.8m BEFORE costs in Jan 24. Not sure of the fees but probably 5% but lets ignore that for the illustration.
Question: Do you think costs will go up, stay the same or go down? Answer: most likely IMO to go up as you have 4 more BOD members to feed and settlement costs to pay Suzy off from BOD position and settle any other liabilities.
IF cash burn were the same the runway would extend to September 24 (9 X £200K is month 9 i.e Sept) but with the broker fees and other costs most likely a bit earlier July or August maybe?
A new board all in situ for end of June ready to start H2 1/7 would not want to go into that with only a few weeks cash left nor would they want to leave it right until the wire to raise cash, which would be totally irresponsible, and we need a change from old.
So, my best guess is they use the end of June AGM to propose the business plans going forwards and introduce the new BOD structure for H2 and request headroom shares for a July or August placing, that feels reasonable to me.
My call is 150m shares at 1p to raise £1.5m cash. Some investors think it should be 2p, but the market is tough. Any raise must reflect risk and the new board are rebuilding the business from ground up. To put this into perspective at 1.7p the share price fully diluted would be roughly the same market cap as where we were at the April 21 restructure. That’s why I think 1p is realistic and 2p probably top heavy IMO but let’s see where it comes out, but funds will be required make no mistake.
No doubt you will reply and say but Pork’s THX could pay the £2m over blah blah, they wont, it’s a dead duck and the new BOD need to move on from that now, rid the business of that albatross around their neck and more forwards fresh. A new board, a new direction, priority to value shareholders, a new start is what's needed now desperately.
Good luck to you.
Pork's
@PM2022
With respect you have constantly told us all to buy these shares and also ignored their cash burn situation and over exaggerated the length of their cash runway on more than two occasions costing those that follow you money. You are now doing it yet again because with four board additions they will be burning the cash even quicker at the moment i can tell you. Not to mention its the 9th April today and i though you were giving THX until end of march? or was that march 2025 or march 2035? How is that working out?
Meanwhile, for some reason you are obsessed with my diabolical decision to back 4D, company lied and the stock got delisted, for me it was a write off against capital gain in last tax year. For What its worth i had a similar write off against gains on the penny share Novacyt in the previous year to that, again that company director lied. Lesson here is that a) its often what companies don't say that's more important than what they do say and b) when you invest in penny shares some work out and some don't - its how it is. But not that its any of your business on balance i have a VERY strong portfolio and various business interests and penny shares are only a small section of it.
These days i don't ramp anything, AIM sector is ready to rebound but not just yet IMO. As a hedge i have also built massive exposure to PM, specifically GOLD which lucky for me has been doing well recently. That's not a flex, its just to say you need to always diversity.
As for Valirx, i give you this for free regarding your comment 2show me the money" : IF and its a big IF Adrian, gets his act together, removes the deadwood from the board, refocuses the business back on evaluations, cuts cash burn back to under £1.5m pa, gets a plan to make the labs break even or if not possible sells them on, i will materially back the July/August placing and in doing so become an advocate.
And, if you think i'm wrong about the placing, think again. It will happen because no new board in their right mind is going to want to drive this business forward from H2 without sufficient funds to do so. The question then is IF a return on investment is possible? We need that new board and direction changes to stand a chance IMO until then its more pain and cash burn short term as i see it.
@HD
Don't be so ridiculous.
Do you seriously believe that the BOD has managed the business well and respected its shareholders? Because i don't. The lack of commercial acumen demonstrated by the board and the dire decisions made not to mention the diabolical handling of 201 has led to this shambles of an outcome.
Further they have been paid well, made the decision to award themselves nice bonuses and delivered you next to nothing in return, all at your expense. Spend, raise, spend, raise, consolidate cycles one after the other.
Rather than point the finger in the direction of the boards bad management you use this discussion forum, which i might add is to discuss investments from a SH perspective NOT a company perspective to attack the very people that could invest should this penny play ever become investable.
As at today it remains totally uninvestable IMO and the BOD are 100% culpable for that, nobody else.
Pork's
PS. For the record i have NEVER requested removal of any post. I advocate free speech and frankly you can post and say anything you like about myself i really count care less, it doesn't bother me but i will comment where i think your stock analysis is wrong.
@MAJWandCo
IMO you have called this 100% spot on.
Likely being pre sold into to support the placing, we see it so so often these days and you are absolutely right, many have no idea how tough capital raising is in these markets and the harsh really facing many of these companies. The hefty days of having millions in cash just chucked at you at high valuations and BODS sucking the cash out at ridiculous pay levels whilst delivering zero revenues are long gone.
My call here would be 200m shares at 2p to raise £4m to give them a 12 month window to turn things around or merge with a bigger more liquid entity.
@Iceman888
Only problem with your £15k gamble buying in at 3.5p is you need mugs to come in now at 3.7 and above for you to sell into to have any chance of a return due to the 5.7% spread.
Closer you leave it open through to the placing and you can guarantee stock will be sold into again to support more cash hence you are more likely to lose your bet imo.
Appreciate you like a bet but seriously, if Adrian can clear out the dead wood, get cash burn under control you could support the placing and if the SP starts to recover buy in then. Better to buy stocks going up than try and catch a falling knife.
LMOL @Iceman888
So you chuck £15k in to try another pump attempt with "why wait to buy" messages, and oh gawd no doubt more "i'm buying more messages" - even some of my ramps were not that bloody obvious.
God loves a trier that's for sure...
Still best to have a go now if you can sucker a few in before the penny placing. Good luck to you
I would suspect three months notice paid but could be more as she is CEO. As it stands she could hold on a lot longer, let’s face it she is hardly going to rush to find her own replacement
Meanwhile, why in God’s name Adrian withdrew the Requisition notice is beyond me, we could have at least offloaded both Kevin Cox and Martian Lampshire end of this month - as it stands it looks like we are stuck with them both.
Yes and if focus had been on cancer drug dev rather than a Poxy lab start up just to maintain salary and bonus benefits for the board as an ongoing lifestyle business I might agree with you. The handling of 201 a specific example of how bad the management has been.
A p poor director does not wake up the next day and suddenly become a good one. Sorry but until the board changes happen my view remains this is uninvestable. And the longer it takes the worse it will get.
The best out come here is to clear the deck, remove the deadwood have a new board with focus on what matters, reduce cash burn back to under £1.5m and have this in situ ready for H2. At that point the new BOD with that vision could raise and drive it forwards.
If that doesn’t happen and all the current BOD drainers remain this will either close completely as it won’t secure further shareholder capital to continue or Suzy will secure death spiral finance to extend it that bit longer and then it will close completely.
@HD
Utter nonsense - The BOD and ONLY the BOD are culpable for the current state of this penny share due to the past history of dire decisions made. They have run it into the ground.
There is however a chink of light, should the appropriate board changes get sorted ready for H2. Until then the stock remains uninvestable but there is always hope the changes will come in time to avoid a Redx situation.
@Ratcliffewriter
Loved your Norwegian Blue analogy to 201 - classic, lol.
Owner: Oh yes, the, uh, the Norwegian Blue...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?
Mr. Praline: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's what's wrong with it!
Owner: No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting.
Mr. Praline: Look, matey, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.
Owner: No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!
Not sure how they can TALK their way out of this at the presentation.
They have lost £1.8m of cash to generate £300k of sales, that's less revenue than my local Subway sandwich bar takes!!!
Trying to work out how they have lost so much business over the last 18mths, non returning and clearly clients not paying them for their services.
TALK is cheap, Delivery of results is KING.
Also i still have concern that a order taken does not result in a paying invoice until materials are delivered to work on, if the client doesn't deliver the materials is there a time limit to do so?? IF not they could have orders hanging for years - is that an issue?
Broker note from Turner Pope today confirms cash runway into new FY. That tells me as the New FY kicks off 1/7/24 they will be working on a further discounted placing shortly, can't see how it can be avoided now.
Even a major win today would not result in cash landing in time.
Good luck if you are running with this one.
Penny placing in July - watch this space - A new BOD will need capital to turn this around.
BUT that is ONLY if the new BOD is formed, dead wood cleared out and all in position for end of June ready for H2 from 1/7 - i'm waiting to see how this unfolds. For now the stock remains uninvestable.
IF current BOD remains and that is still a MAJOR concern, expect more of the same. Either will run out of cash in July and wont be supported for a further equity raise or Suzy will take on death spiral finance from Sanderson, which could be her plan and why Suzy has them as a TR1 holder maybe?
Current concern is why Adrian let Kevin and Martin off the hook by withdrawing the Requisition notice. I don't think there is a shareholder or investor ANYWHERE that wouldn't want to vote these two off the BOD as priority. Early mistakes never bode well IMO.
Not really
A number of us were well ahead of the game being played out here and to be fair although she played a blinder getting the stock sold into for the placing ultimately, the game is up. She's not so smart now.
You can only fool some of the people some of the time.
What counts now is what the BOD looks like going into H2 - this business lives or dies depending on what that looks like.