Member Info for Porky9

We are seeing this a lot at the moment. You only have to put the radio on and listen to a phone in and within minutes it will have a caller starting off on point and then descending into some political rant, either NHS, failing government, Brexit or austerity. In this specific case its about more money for the NHS staff training and equipment. At best lazy journalism, rehashing old media articles to support a political agenda. A total disgrace really.

Anyhow, like it or not the UK has to be ready, embrace new technology, establish and firmly embed diagnostics. We need to be ready not just for this pandemic but for any future mutations and other viruses. If that means having an effective managed well run lab in every NHS hospital so beit. We need to adjust and get the the right staff training in place and lead the world in diagnostics, we have the best NHS in the world and can add to it, not fall over. These are not problems, they are challenges. We can work through them on the journey to greater NHS success and we will.

As a shareholder you didn't expect an easy ride did you?

This is a world class diagnostics business in the making, New technologies being rolled out and one massive world market to go at. This is exponential growth on a whole new level. Don't lose sight of that.

Sure there will be some teething issues with any new technologies in new settings but nothing insurmountable here. The UK market is large but nothing compared to the rest of the world. Novacyt are supplying to 170 countries and building a massive network of resellers and distributors not to mention partner and white label deals. There are big deals in France on the go, Spain and the USA just to name a few. Do your research.

Shareholders will be tested, Shorter's and investment groups will try and take your shares off you, there are only 70m in issue so not much wiggle room hence the dire need to shake the retail investor and why the share price is often volatile. Don't fall for any tricks, political objectives or otherwise. Remember why you first decided to back this business as a shareholder, that's what i do - have total faith in your convictions.

It will be interesting to see how next week goes, I remain very pro Novacyt as regulars on this board know. It's one of the best managed businesses I have come across in a very long time. It's a titan of the future and it deserves our backing. I won't be giving up any of my shares in this business that's for certain.

GLA

This time its the Student Unions kicking off regarding the poor accuracy levels and the tests being used to decide on students returning home for Christmas.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/nov/28/christmas-covid-testing-for-uk-students-a-recipe-for-chaos-says-union

So with LFT accuracy as low as 58% the answer is to roll out a nationwide network of PCR testing labs carrying out the gold standard PCR test. Hmmm i wonder how we can get to that.....

Jesus.....
NOVACYT Is Not the bitcoin of all things covid. It is a worldwide diagnostics business.
DO era prop

Just to clarify:
Post was specifically for Triumph1 and his band of merry shorters

Old rehashed news makes no difference as not proven/ no RNS out
Initial teething issues fully resolved and still on track as confirmed by government already
Testing volumes continue to increase
Black rock continue to add
FDA awards to stateside partners and US partner sales take off
Share price rally towards £25, re-testing £12.60 line on the way

Yes, we can all make up tread titles to change the flow of conversation
GLA

LMOL
You just know as soon as any negative gossip about, out come any vultures to revel in it and see how they can capitalise, perhaps open a few short positions to try and make something more of the situation. Scare a few retail and remind us t once again save our souls from impending doom.
Here is Trimuph1 with expert pearls of wisdom right on time.

Not sure if you read todays Novacyt Shareholders magazine today but there was a special prize giving cryptic crosswords in it just for you to solve:-
Across: 4 Letters/ 3 Letters
Clue: Sex/ Travel and something’s trimuph1 should most deffinately do?
HMMmm Wonder what the answer Is?
I’m sure with your excellent research skills you will Find etc answer?

Thank you as usual for your valid contributions, on time and as expected

@troublesome
Having been on the end of a business news story myself, I can tell you that what these journelists will do is knock an article together on the Saturday, often without fact, it can be a blog or probably that old msn link they read and repurposed and they then email the business same day saying you need to reply as we are printing tomorrow, not giving the business time to respond hence the "' Primerdesign declined to comment ' comment.
So i wouldn't write much into that
As i say if the contract is cancelled then company will put out an official statement but its more likely procedure changes most likely already in progress. We need diagnostics in hospitals and the infrastructure needs building - it will take time and it will happen imo.

IF and its a big IF the equipment supply has been cancelled then an official RNS to that effect would be issued.

With any new technologies you will have teething issues. This was identified in October and the business has done something about it to reduce the administration burden from what i have read. Hence, i'm not sure if this is just lazy editing and reposting of old news? No other paper is running with this story so how accurate is it? I suspect its yesterdays news already.

I can see a few vultures are out om this. its all exciting isn't it, some people dwell in negativity.

Frankly, unless the company puts put an RNS tomorrow saying its order is cancelled I'm not really going to value anything printed in the independent. Time will tell

23.2% false negative Test result
https://fullfact.org/health/lateral-flow-test/

So in laymen’s terms almost a quarter of people with Covid will receive a false negative test results back from an LFT.

Yet despite this awful accuracy level the government are still pushing them out and they are about to go into care home testing

PCR Gold standard is the / remains the most accurate but government are not listening

@Gazman123
Reed your twitter thread so aware you are bullish. What makes you think phase 2 will happen? My concern was that due to the initial teething issues on the first 300 machines and requirements for experienced staff to manage them was an order for another 700 likely. Also we now have this push for LFTs with Bojo yesterday even adding the liquid to an LFT in a lab and news they will roll out to carehomes, it now looks like quality and accuracy are less important than speed.
I’m more hopeful of them securing a big US order or French contract above the phase 2 extension. I think this government are taking ridiculous risks to save money frankly or are plain clueless / ignoring LFT effectiveness

https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/coronavirus-csir-ccmbs-dry-swab-rt-pcr-covid-19-test-gets-icmr-nod/article33194817.ece/amp/

The mail are covering the roll out of LFTs to care homes as a victory for reconnecting loved ones - you couldn’t make it up:-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8995281/amp/Care-home-managers-promised-rapid-Covid-testing-kits-weeks.html
So in a desperate need to grab some positive headlines they will ignore the science and go with the cheap crappy LFTs in a care home setting.

PCR is the gold standard and best in the world. It does not claim to be 100% it is >99%

I am surprised any court would entertain the case but as there is an element of doubt and a few quid in it for the Germans they have gone for it. Next it will be Germans in isolation that had the vaccine claiming it made them feel worse or didn’t work - ridiculous

I have two of them

Joking apart, on the basis the the MM moved the SP down by yet another 110 on the Oxford vaccine news, now we find the trial is being rerun with results put back by at least into 2021 Quarter you would think MMs would put the SP back where it was and theSP would rise 110 onthe Oxford delays vaccine news! - I know, i know it doesn’t work like that, no answers on a postcard required

Just out:-
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/vaccine-blow-oxford-covid-19-23075348.amp

Trial being rerun in order to establish correct data sets.

Article just out:-
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/26/manufacturing-error-clouds-oxfords-covid-19-vaccine-study-results/

Not sure what the regulators will make of that but imo they should not rush to approve until they have the full data including the effect of lower doses on over 55s.

I feel a bit sorry for the team at Oxford as they are doing amazing work and I fear that they were being rushed into putting out results early ( probably by government who wanted a good news story to go along side all the negative lock down news) before they were ready. Only last week they were saying they expected full data evaluation hopefully before the year end and then practically the next day, it was all champagne corks popping and megga news and hype out.

They just need the time to evaluate in their own time and not rush at it. I'm sure it will still come good in the end.

I guess this is the society we live in now, the instant generation, we want everything yesterday.

GLA

@whipsichic @Kaeren

The article and as you say the decision by the French is very interesting:-

"While patients who test positive with a rapid test in the Liverpool trial must contact their doctor to arrange a corroborating PCR test, France has opted for the opposite: To re-test with PCR those who test negative with the rapid test"

I have never been a great fan of French policy however, in this instance i have to say that's a brilliant call by the French and the way it should be. It completely removes the false negative risk - Genius

As I see it: -

The bull argument for the LFTs are that they give a quick result, and they are cheap.

Frankly, the ground was set right at the start of the pandemic when government rushed out, without tender or proper consultation to buy 20 million LFTs from Innova for immediate use. No one in government wants to admit a wrong decision, they were well and truly sold a lemon, they brought into the hype and they still stand by the wrong call.

Added to this is the argument that the PCR takes too long to come back, and, in that time, an infected person has infected others and we need to know immediately if the person is contagious or not. LFTs at least indicate if the person is highly contagious quickly.

The bear argument, however, is that they are not accurate. In fact, data out now practically confirms that the tests are so hopeless you might just as well flip a coin. It is well published that Elon Musk took 4 LFT and two came back negative and two positives. You could not make it up.

You see countless articles on false positives but what they are not focusing on here is the false negative rate. This is the most important factor imo. Specifically, in a care home setting, it only takes just one visitor with a false positive and it does not bear thinking about.

If I oversaw the care home sector my call would be to install PCR testing at the Care home, test all the staff and residents as part of the round on the morning. Then if a visitor wants to visit, they come one hour earlier, take the PCR test and if clear they are then let in. As matters progress the result time should reduce but it is far far better imo in the care home setting to wait for a result that is as close to 100% as we can get and guarantee the safety of all residents.

Frankly, using LFTs in the care home setting is playing Russian roulette imo, this is not the place for LFTs and we will pay the price for this as we are already starting to see, this is the great tragedy here.

Fortunately, it is a big worldwide market out there and other governments and care organisations are not so cavalier when it comes to the safety of care home residents hence NCYT can sell to them instead. I just wish our minister would wake up and smell the coffee here.

GLA

@troublesome
I agree it’s totally shocking, I have read various other reports that LFTs are being selected for speed and testing of visitors. It’s almost like the government are more concerned with using a rapid cheap LFT than a PCR test for accuracy. Unnecessary deaths will unfortunately result in this action but I fear the government will just view it as collateral damage. Until NCYT can deliver a rapid PCR test or an LFT fo the same gold standard these inaccurate rapid tests will continue to be used