Member Info for Porky9

Cignpost Diagnostics , PCR tests in the golfing sector and launch “Express Lab” at Edinburgh airport. Has a “Mi Co Bio” badge on the equipment that powers it - add to intel if not already

It's difficult to remain positive in view of the recent beating we are taking on the share price. Lets face it the market are viewing Novacyt as a Covid only, one trick pony stock which is bloody annoying. For that perception to change it is obviously going to take time.

Tay has put some recent revenue projections together on insider which are interesting:-
https://novacytinsider.com/q-revenues/

Obviously, the de-rampers and shorters will continue to point to the miracle vaccines and totally ignore that this is a comprehensive diagnostics business that the world needs for the future NOT just a covid play. They relish in the share price falling, telling us to sell and save our souls and how expert they are yet in most cases have done FA research into what this business actually does.!

I mean what kind of sad cretinous person comes to this stock board, where we have been discussing the pros and cons of Novacyt business, just to tell us to sell up and how the share price will continue to go south? With no news out this is what us supporting shareholders are having to endure.

Anyhow, Tay's projections put this as a £1 BN+ revenue business in the Making, if that's the case within 12 months the share price could be heading towards £100 let alone £20. Upside is substantial if they get it right?

Personally, I can't know what the share price will do in the short term, it could fall further, maybe you could sell and buy back cheaper? then again you could sell and miss the boat or wait for a lower entry point and it never arrives - who knows? If we all had the vision of hindsight wouldn't that be wonderful....

For me, i will hold on in and continue to add as I can afford. If they deliver even half of what Tay projects going forward we will be looking at many multiples of todays share price, that's for sure. So my call is to back the business, give them chance to deliver and the SP should ultimately take care of itself, it may look very different in a years time. Time will tell i guess..

GLA whatever your own call, take care.

I totally agree with you however, maybe they haven’t been awarded the contract extension, maybe government will buy more crap from China or maybe buy less effective tests as they are cheaper - who knows? Maybe carehomes will get less effective tests for speed and price and maybe the government don’t give a rats ass how many will die as a result, it’s all percentages collateral damage?
What is certain, shareholders are currently taking a beating and it’s radio silence from NYCT until results are out . Shorters meanwhile having a field day
I continue to support all the same, in the hope we will get some positivity, who knows
GLA

Jesus, more new to this forum posters joining us with pearls of wisdom to sell and save our souls. serve them right if something positive was issued and they got seriously burnt

A company doesn't issue a press a release just because they added another product to their range. Appreciate we need some positive news to stop the share price falling like a brick but this isn’t it
GLA

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has today (24 November 2020) announced that from 15 December 2020, passengers arriving into England from countries not featured on the government’s travel corridor list will have the option to take a test after 5 days of self-isolation, with a negative result releasing them from the need to isolate.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/test-to-release-england-introduces-testing-strategy-for-international-arrivals
With those opting in to the scheme having to book and pay for a coronavirus (COVID-19) test from a private provider on the GOV.UK list, we are ensuring the NHS Test and Trace testing capacity is protected.

I wonder who makes the list, are NCYT or one of the partner providers going to be included?

And.....

Its all very good and a great additional accolade to add to the already bulging stable of products and accreditations. I guess it will support Stateside sales once "It is approved" rather than "application pending".

I'm all for being Bullish on NCYT but what i want to see, is boots on the ground in the USA, we need a sales office and ideally distribution center based out there if we are to secure major traction stateside imo - the American market is gigantic.

- Testing 20 fold increase proposed we didn’t know about
- DHSC Contracts + £256m
Before all the other expected news
Oxford Vaccine we already know about
GLA

Absolutely no “OUT OF STOCK” signs unlike over at optigene, hmmm

Oh i agree
It will be July 21 when they put out the H1 for the first half of 21 that the growth rates will really start to show through but even so, positioning wonderfully if you re here for the long term.
The point is they have the right products, scalable manufacture and high demand , great position to be in
GLA

Think that's the burning question, its all about what the maximum production capacity looks like.

The last RNS mentioned a five fold increase in capacity and potential to scale further with demand. Normally, economies of scale and the bear argument would suggest that unit prices with volume would ultimately come down but frankly the reverse could be happening, manufactures are putting up the "Out of stock" signs and supply cant meet demand as it is. They just can't get hold of enough tests!!!

What a brilliant strategic move of GM to bring the manufacture in house, credit where its due, its going to pay dividends now.

A very crude calculation could be if Numis were working on £300m annual revenue originally and they now have a five fold increase at capacity then that's £1.5 Bn, wishful thinking? maybe but one thing for sure its certainly going to grow significantly higher than where we are now. This is a billion plus revenue potential business imo.

Won't tempt fate but that government extension has be signed off. If they don't sign it off the goods can be sold elsewhere and frankly, the Moonshot project is struggling to reach the 600,000 testing limit as it is, let alone trying to increase to a potential 10 million.

I'm that bullish I'm now revising my share price target to north of £ 40 +

WOW, WOW, WOW

We are at 500,000 at the moment, to go to 10 million in a day is a twenty fold increase in testing. That is just incredible. Not to mention if other countries around the world do the same alongside the vaccine roll out. Can you just imagine it.

Growth rate here is just off the scale.....

Musk took four LFTs and two came back negative and two came back positive - Joke

As you say it’s how many people walk away from Liverpool testing with a false negative result and then go on to infect others

So, the only way to get a near perfect result is to wait one hour

In a care home setting it would work perfectly for staff and residents because you could use the Q32 every morning as part of the rounds and you maintain 100% constant protection. It’s the visitor side that’s the issue but frankly, making a visitor wait one hour to get in or they remain outside as it is currently is a small price to pay for certainty v speed and risk one infected person killing everyone in the home

Guardian article reconfirming what we already know about the roll out of mass testing that started in Liverpool:-
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/nov/21/liverpool-mass-testing-finds-hundreds-with-covid-19-but-no-symptoms
Headlines being after two weeks;
153,000 Tests in Total split
93,028 Tests using LFTs (in this example the crappy Innova Ones)
59,972 Tests using PCR
In Liverpool anyone showing symptoms or testing positive with a lateral flow test has been asked to confirm the result using a PCR test
I think what is interesting really is the need for speed, they will sacrifice accuracy for speed on the basis that they can identify the most contagious person more quickly.
The holy grail really would be A PCR standard test with a rapid result - i understand NCYT are onto this, wasn't the Q16 capable of something like up to 60 tests in an hour.
Nice to be a shareholder in such a forward thinking dynamic business.
GLA

@JHFH
The draw down is up to 30% of the stock value. HEMO currently has a market cap of £40m. So the max it can immediately drawn down is £12m. By co-incidence is exactly what they are declaring. The bid is 9.30. So they can convert at 8.37 but nothing stops them selling a chunk of shares now for example forcing the SP down to say 8p and converting at 7.10 in a coupe of weeks time knowing that all the shares sold at variable prices between 9.30 and 7.10 in this example delivers immediate profit as they have a guaranteed share buy back price. Mint Capital are in the business of lending capital, they are not a charity nor are they interested in being shareholders. Its a pure commercial arrangement.
Nothing wrong in this, its a perfect way to secure additional funding but that's how it works and its a factor to consider.

@Cheapskater
I fully understand and respect your decision. I had the exact same experience. To make it worse at the time I foolishly down averaged on drops, it never occurred to me that the stock was being shorted. Then i was spotting an RNS saying X shares converted at Y price and X funds position then reducing after the event. I ended up with a fairly large write off and once you experience that you remember it. Just like when a Director sells a big chunk of share stock, you can dress it anyhow you like that they needed the money, had a tax bill due blah blah, heard it all before, but experience has taught me that in 9 times out of 10 that's another sign to get the hell out.
Prior to the RNS here i was building my position and adding. When that dropped it was a big red flag for me and i have reduced. I want HEMO to do well as I think what they are doing is incredible but if they were on the verge of deal with Lily that was going to moneytise the business before end of the year / it was such a done deal / or within a quarter they wouldn't need to sign a convertible loan agreement imo. Hope i'm wrong,
As a positive however, if it does take longer and these things often do at least they won't run out of cash. The deal at least ensures the companies future survival which is fantastic and provides the window to continue their great work and make a difference. GLA

Look at this nonsense with Track and Trace. Testing demand was so high we sent tests abroad to be processed.
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/11/20/covid-19-testing-chaos-half-a-million-tests-sent-abroad/
Hence the urgency to roll out the lighthouse labs

Two at quarter mil, one at 160k a 70k and some 40ks so clearly confident.
Worked in during the afternoon
Could be wrong but gut feeling is this is going to fly very soon, so just maybe we will get a further update of some kind on Monday. Time will tell.
GLA

@try2buylow @ HarChris
Thanks for the clarity on Revenues, appreciated. Of course I was forgetting that orders will be out of line to the financial year.
Looking bloody good all the same :)