Member Info for Porky9

Hmmm keep accumulating and when AZ or GSK come along because they need a diagnostics division BlackRock have a ready made chuck of the capital in issue to help a negotiation.

If NCYT isn’t part of a large pharma group within two years i would be very surprised but let’s hope not, much ground to break first

GLA

“It's unimaginably gigantic, the amount that we're doing, but it's still insufficient compared to the demand,”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/covid-19-testing-capacity-strained-surge-demand-n1249592

Details of Trial reported:-
https://www.gov.scot/news/testing-for-care-home-visitors-gets-underway/
LFT Test - if the visitor tests negative in they go with PPE, if they test positive arrange a PCR Test
No thought for the false negative result
Simply amazing, I thought common sense had prevailed, clearly a false dawn....

@bakky
Do you know how long after the submission closing deadline before an award is given?
The Spanish tender window closed a week ago, I thought a slice of that might come this way also. A heck of a lot going on currently.

@Neilrich
The link is from 1st September and NHS Wales hasn’t run with it.
I guess it comes straight back to the speed v accuracy argument. This weekend there has been mounting evidence and reporting about inaccurate tests.
PCR remains the Gold Standard that’s the bottom line. It comes down now to how far we can improve PCR test times
GLA

@troublesome
No, probably a waste of time but she's going to do the swabs and post back to Barnard Castle so will let you know how it goes.
mind you they want over £ 100 for the test so would hope its PCR at that price..... will see.

@ShaunP
Its an antigen test:-
https://www.lumiradx.com/uk-en/news-events/lumiradx-covid-19-antigen-test-achieves-ce-mark
So not PCR bit of a difference but clearly Boots want to promote it. Been trialing it out on Africa....

@ShaunP
"Coming soon, Boots is also planning to roll out to selected stores a new testing service using the LumiraDx device which has the ability to provide a COVID-19 swab test result within just 12 minutes*"
https://www.boots-uk.com/media-centre/press-releases/new-covid-19-testing-service-now-available-in-boots-uk-stores/
The Lumiradx Device:-
https://www.lumiradx.com/us-en/
Just called the last filed P&L up at companies house and it was doing about £2.8 m in revenue and a multi million losses but has traction stateside.

@ShaunP
I was just reading this article in the Indy about suggestions for where to go for PCR:-
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-where-buy-private-test-pcr-antibody-b1766728.html
I read the Boots section which references 24 to 48hr for lab based PCR results but if you watch the clip he mentions a 12 min test in a machine they will be launching. Don't think its of the same standard and could be LAMP tests. Any ideas on this one?

@troublesome
I'm 52 and frankly i had never heard of Barnard Castle, could of been in Timbuktu for all I knew. Now i know better:-
a) its a place to go for eye tests
b) its a place to go to get a home kit lab tested
LOL amazing what you can still learn....

Just stating the bleeding obvious really:-

If you win an major airline contract to supply I would expect you would have to prove that you can meet the volumes and there is probably a volume discount involved.

Issue at the moment is there are only so many companies that can provide PCR tests and the demand is currently ahead of capacity. Add to this we now know that confidence in any other test is being destroyed hence, adding even more pressure to PCR test demand.

I don't doubt they can ramp up manufacturing to get the test kits out, question will be the capacity to process the test results. As discussed earlier, Boots have stopped taking orders, could be a logistical issue but how we address test volume will be key to the success.

On a positive note; nice problem to have. Its going to start getting interesting imo.

Meanwhile, that kit my family member ordered online from wearekilter as immediate which we know is a competitor lab up in Barnard Castle took three days to arrive. Will be interesting to see how quick the results come back. I think all labs will be under pressure frankly.

With all the press out on now on LFTs being next to useless and PCR the gold standard being the only test worth having, I bet order volume at Boots just went through the roof, just can’t manufacture the kits quick enough

Where - Back school for me lol

Wearekilter home PCR testing kit https://wearekilter.com/ Is not us
It’s powered by Honeyman Group
https://www.honeymangroup.com/corporate/about/
A Private lab based in Barnard Castle, perhaps that was were Dominic Cummings was going lol

Just to further illustrate the USA position:-

Six San Francisco Bay Area regions issued a new stay-at-home order on Friday as the number of virus cases surge and hospitals fill:-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9020093/California-orders-8-5-million-people-Bay-Area-stay-home-Monday.html

"California issued a statewide order for its 39.5 million residents, 8.5 million of whom live in the Bay Area.
The state has almost double the population of New York state and 10 million more than Texas.
Another concern is that the state may struggle to staff its medical facilities"

I don't think many realise the sheer scale of the issue stateside. We talk about the UK with 64m population and France similar yet in just California alone there are 40 million people!! The numbers are just off the scale.

We mustn't lose sight of how truly horrendous covid is. Stateside specifically really are having issues. It's just getting worse by the day. I can only hope that Novacyt can create enough capacity to at least try and help the USA get some control.

The following is a link to images and news published online by the Guardian.
**WARNING" This article page contains images that many may find upsetting. Please do not view this guardian page if easily upset. It's depicts numerous images from US hospitals and shows the reality of how serious this virus is:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2020/dec/04/coronavirus-crisis-america-us-hospitals

Just ignore syndicate shorting member posts not relative. There are only 70 m shares in issue so to sell a chunk of stock you don't own is a very dangerous game.
If you are following NCYT and doing your research you quickly realise that this is not some short term Covid stock without substance. It's not only building a major diagnostics business, its creating one mother of a partner and distribution network that far outreaches any other, but we all know that here. Its exponential growth potential at a whole new level.
Anyhow, it only takes one news worthy order here, Spain, USA, DHSC or other and the shorter's will be running for the hills closing positions and helping the stock rally quicker than you can say "where the fire"
Enjoy, we all know why we invest here. Its a long term Investment not a casino.
GLA

Article just out in the Guardian, not great for OptiGene that's just got approval:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/04/experts-question-claimed-accuracy-of-covid-19-saliva-tests
"Saliva tests for Covid-19, which are being introduced for NHS workers as part of the government’s mass testing programme, pick up only 13% of people with low levels of the virus and not 91%, as the official assessment has claimed, according to experts"

With both LFTs and LAMP tests now in question, It looks like PCR Gold standard remains the only true accuracy test on the market.

Perhaps then the way forward via de-centralisation is to continue to roll out the megga labs and link them in regions to a network of Versalab hubs for local testing.

I tend to agree to a certain extent, normally in these kinds of situations you see consolidation.
If they are very small with no production, no established teams, no real traction they will probably let them bite the dust, if they are bigger and worth adding they will be taken over. Ultimately the bigger ones with the most traction, will become divisions of the giant phama coys.
I know Shaun disagrees on this point but ultimately imo Novacyt will become of a diagnostics division of AZ or GSK or similar. We just have to hope shareholders enjoy the benefits before that happens.
GLA

@HarChris
Totally agree,

This all comes back really to the knee jerk decision to rush in and buy 20 million cheap LFTs from Innova at day one. No one on government wants to admit that was a bad call and that the tests were not going to be used for their intended purpose and they got it wrong. Lets hope they learn from this. I was really worried they were going to roll these out to care homes regardless so its a blessed relief common sense has prevailed.

Don't get me wrong, an LFT has its place in the mix but I think the LAMP test is certainly more accurate and would be a significant improvement.

Ideally, we need a faster way to process a PCR result, but its better to be slower and accurate than rush out false results especially in the care home setting which is where the LFT would leave us.

Thank god the councils have put a stop to it.