Member Info for Porky9

LMOL
From this moment on i am going to refer to them as RATS - very appropriate

Yet more negative press out surrounding mass use of the LFT this time regarding mass testing in Wales:-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55283183

The push for LFT use is also driven in part by results in Slovakia where they used LFT alongside other measures and it helped reduce the virus. The BMJ reported specifically on the success of the Slovakia trial:-
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4761

IMO What they really need in Wales to resolve this issue is mass testing by PCR and then better control.

If that is not possible, then next best would be using the LFT on mass to test all of Wales. If you test positive you stay isolated and if you test negative you take a PCR test to confirm same, which is how it works in France. They could then issue a "Freedom Passport" to go about your work and other business with a negative PCR result. If you test negative and don't have a confirmation PCR you stay restricted. Its that simple.

Time to get smart rather than doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome, ridiculous.

£400k of Revenue last year but a major R&D play, £12m in grants, loads of fund raising and cash burn about £12m a year, accounts to year end march 20 state sufficient capital resource for another 12 months to March 21 with further funding required 2021 expected
Issue currently due to Covid is that its increasingly hard to raise capital.
Getting a finished product to market plus sales, marketing, manufacture is also a whole different ball game. Not insurmountable but very challenging. If technology any good probably more likely to license out for a royalty or possible take over target imo. Time will tell but i don't see it as a product threat as such but they are doing some great things in R&D for sure.

https://www.nwemail.co.uk/news/18940085.readers-react-possibility-rapid-result-covid-testing-cumbrian-schools/
Not going into this all again as it doesn’t change anything. But just read the parent comments. It just confirms that the general public don’t have a bloody clue. We do because we understand the difference between a LFT and a PCR test but it feels like we are on our own. Public needs educating

So he says;
£1 bn Market cap at the turn of the year And we haven't had the game changer yet...
What's not to like :)
GLA

There is not some sinister reason behind the company silence.

They are simply just cracking on with a solid focus on building the business, this is what they should be doing! They only need to update the market if something specifically material that may affect the share price needs releasing, such as an acquisition or a major contract win or something that will materially alter the two broker forecasts that are in issue.

It was very impressive that they issued shareholders with an update on their R&D activity in November that was above the call, frankly.

A results update will be out in January but as already stated much of the contract wins will be rolling out over the next 12 months. The 2021 year will be where the major growth is.

I really appreciate that shareholders want updates at every turn, it is the instant world that we now live in but lets just get behind them, its not a pot noodle they are making that is instantly ready, it is a major diagnostics business in the making, its takes time to scale, we just need to be patient and let them continue to do what they do best.

This is one of the best run businesses in the market imo, fantastic management team, it will become a mid market cap business, let them focus on that, the share price will ultimately follow. Let’s not lose sight of that.

GLA

@Wilson
Well on a positive i guess that's another 1.6m of LFTs out the way before Christmas. Lets face it nobody in government is going to say they got it wrong. The burning question for me really is; are they going to order more of this junk from china when stocks run out in February and can we have a guarantee these tests wont get near a care home anytime soon....

This image on twitter to illustrate the DHSC perception of LFT v the safe PCR test.
Made me laugh - its exactly how it is:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/JonPaul3rd

We have been discussing on this board for probably the last month about the suitability of Lateral Flow Tests (LFT) for operation moonshot and moreover that they should never be used in a care home setting. The LFT is simply not designed for this purpose:-
https://www.centralfifetimes.com/news/national-news/18939450.rapid-coronavirus-test-missed-half-cases-data-suggests/
Despite this, there is a clear need for speed.
The argument we are constantly up against for LFT is that whilst it is not there to guarantee that you don't have covid (a negative result can not be relied upon, which is probably why the French send you for a PCR test to confirm a negative LFT result) it can at least identify almost instantly a high percentage of cases that are positive that would be in the community spreading the virus whilst awaiting a PCR result (it misses a load of positives to also but at least captures some positives)
Now we find that the accuracy level is so poor that even a swig of coke is likely to test you positive. I'm sure I read somewhere only a few weeks back that using mouth wash would almost guarantee you a negative result.
Anyhow, its now proven 100% they are not fit for the purpose they are being used.
So where to from here? LFT Stocks run out in February anyway. Will more of them be sourced and ordered?

Can Novacyt deliver anything that can support a rapid test in any format that is more accurate than the Innova test?
Can they deliver an instant or significantly reduced PCR test result time?.
I appreciate that group PCR testing can reduce the average test time down to about 15 mins but whilst PCR lab tests are here to stay for a long time imo the silver bullet of all things testing will be a PCR standard test or high quality LFT or LAMO that can deliver an instant result.
I am looking forward to seeing what progress Novacyt have made and can deliver on during the first quarter - i am confident they can crack this.
GLA

Oh I remember now we discussed the possible relationship with Halo and then also Optigene regarding these tests but then accuracy came into it again:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/04/experts-question-claimed-accuracy-of-covid-19-saliva-tests
It does read though that Thermo Fisher might have some progress here. They probably know Novacyt are working on one and trying to get in a few weeks earlier maybe?

https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/news/thermo-fisher-scientific-saliva-test-covid-19/
Thermo Fisher looking for FDA on Saliva Test

Tay mentioned that Novacyt were active and had Saliva test trials running and expecting results at the end of October. Did we ever get further update on this progress or is this another Q1 update with the LAMP test they are indicating roll out of?
https://novacytinsider.com/novacyt-saliva-trial/

Competitor Analysis: -
Honeyman Group
Reseller: wearekilter https://wearekilter.com/
Provider: Assured Screening: https://www.assuredscreening.com/
Lab: Honeyman Group Barnard Castle Lab

Process:
Order PCR Home test kit online from Kilter at a cost of £ 105 (1 Test) or family test pack £395 (4 tests) – Website claims 24 hr Results. Certificate for Fit to Fly included.
Kit Arrives at Home: Kit is manufactured Chinese in origin: The kit box and swob had the words BIOER in small on the side of the kit box and the plastic bags to post straight back to the Lab in Barnard Castle. The kit is manufactured by Hangzhou Bior Technology Co Ltd - www.bioer.com.cn
You complete the swob test process as directed, put a sticky bar code on the sample container and seal up in the same box and post back to pre-written address directly to the lab at Barnard Castle.
You then register online at assured screening with your details and add the bar code number.
The lab after testing your sample confirm the result, update the website and you get a result notification and certificate by email.

Reality Check:
Unfortunately, this order was placed on a Tuesday afternoon. The kit did not arrive in the post at the home until the Saturday. As it was a weekend it was posted back on the Monday. No result was received by the following Thursday. So much for a 24hr service. A call to assured screening returned an automated call saying offices are not taking calls due to high call volume demands and to send email form. The email form was not answered other than an auto reply. The website where it was registered delivered a message saying you are not registered despite an earlier confirmation email saying they were. A further complaint was issued to both assured screening and the reseller Kilter Health Care. Apparently on the Friday Kilter confirmed the result was negative and that a certificate would following in the next four days. They also agreed to refund the fee due to the delay which was exceptionally good of them.

Conclusion:
IMO the above circumstances are probably not typical of the service from Kilter Heath Care but if you partner with a lab you need to be confident, they can deliver. Lab volumes are clearly off the scale and the Barnard Castle lab is probably at capacity hence the delay. The more resellers using this lab the worse it will get.
The kit itself was probably pence to manufacture in china unless the squirt of liquid chemical in the tube is adds to the cost. If the lab is charging £ 10 a go which looks like the going rate, then clearly there is plenty of margin for the middleman. Probably not a bad business sideline frankly!!!
Personally, I probably would not order from Kilter as they have no direct control over the lab but that would be much the same with various other resellers, I guess.

With all the activity in the pipeline these daft sub £10 prices won’t be around long.

Anyhow the MMs should still give us back the 60p they stole in the last 15 mins of trading on wednesday :)

"Of the £15bn of funding confirmed before the November Spending Review, about £12.8bn (85%) was assigned to testing and £1.3bn to tracing"

"NHS test and trace (NHST&T) has plans to sign a further 154 contracts, worth £16.2bn, by March 2021"

This is now a game of patience IMO.

Whilst shorters and derampers can argue that Novacyt may not win any of this UK business or secure extensions to the current contracts, I would say that its highly likely now that at least some of it will come our way. Also, attitudes have recently hardened in favour of PCR and this will further accelerate our chances of wins. And this is just the UK, we still have Spain, France, the USA and 170 other countries to supply to....

I remain absolutely resolute that shortly you won't get a chance to buy this share at sub £10 levels again.

At some point the market cap has to reflect a PE Ratio more meaningful to the levels of business secured. The SP remains materially undervalued imo simply because the market hasn't caught up yet with the exponential growth trajectory in play due to the speed its moving at. For this reason i remain both long on this stock and bullish.
Personal Price target £ 40+
GLA

@Kaeren
The link is fine but you need to add the word to Matt-hand...k because the filter here removes it due to him living up to his namesake

It’s a £5m contract but not us, jobs for boys im afraid:-
https://bylinetimes.com/2020/12/10/covid-testing-deal-awarded-firm-with-links-matt-han****-family/
Can someone please sack handjob, fcking wnkr

@Kaeren
My tea leaves are telling me that "a good idea is nothing without good execution". There is a long long long way to go for SureScreen to firstly secure the order and more importantly deliver on it. Style over substance at the moment. That's the challenge they face but the market is big enough for many companies to take a slice.
Clearly their is demand for a more rapid test. I don't think LFT is it, maybe LAMP will be better but PCR trumps all by a long chalk as it stands. Interested to see what Novacyt come through with in Jan, maybe Surescreen could be another partnership op ? who knows.

I forgot to add that my cup also has a handle on it ..... very scary

Where does this leave us?

Well I have an exact cup and saucer formation on my desk in front of me. I am about to poor tea into it and I can tell you that the outlook is Very Hot

Although the leaves at the end may give me a more accurate price prediction

Interesting article on manipulation. Applies to the NAS but same principles apply to AIM:-
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-market-manipulation-tactics-and-how-avoid-them-2018-04-11
Also, similar article from Proactive investors:-
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/900548/explaining-illegal-market-manipulation-900548.html

Looks to me like a Bear Raid, a quick drop to -8% to try and trip some stop losses and get some shares in. We must not lose sight of the fact that there are only 70 million of shares in issue. Frankly i thought with the last major bear raid the "Orange had been well and truly squeezed" already and all those retail on the sell button were already out by now. Looking at the trades today, i don't see many out so it served no real purpose but maybe they will capture a few at market open? Order book today certainly did not warrant the mark down imo by WTFDIK - Who knows.

Action To Take : Be alert to manipulation when making investing decisions. The best way to protect yourself from the manipulators is to invest for the long term.