Member Info for Porky9

Vaccine Roll Out will take a Year:-
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-hospital-admissions-near-first-peak-as-doctor-warns-full-uk-vaccine-rollout-could-take-a-year-12173988
Hospitals are under such pressure from an influx of people with coronavirus that some patients are being treated in ambulances - and one medical expert has warned the vaccine rollout could take until December next year.

Possibly a bit harsh but i understand your frustration

Even if you if they have an acquisition target in sight they still have all the Due diligence to contend with and that can sometimes take up to 6 months depending on how big the deal is. Currently with Covid auditors / legals and others are not working at the same speeds either.

Of course It could be that they have no targets and GM has lied to us as you allege, its a possibility, but i very much doubt that. He knows the market and has clear vision for the future of the business.

As for the US sales figures, its very early days for this market and possibly getting established and now boots on the ground in the US, recruiting the right people has taken longer than envisaged. I don't hold that against GM, sometimes these things happen. I'm sure we be updated in due course. Its one overseas market out of 170.

You will always have investors that only invest on actual results and others that sit on the side lines looking for a lower entry point. Personally I believe the SP remains materially undervalued but lets stick to the facts here:-

The only two broker forecasts in play are provided by Numis Security and SP Angel. Share Price targets £ 13.65 and £ 14.63 respectively. Blue Sky £ 34

SP Targets are based on the following forecasts for the 2020:-
Numis SP Angel
Revenue 305 287
EBITDA 229 210
Net Cash 91 79

So once results are out these are the head line figures we are expecting to see.

Both brokers have said that an award of phase 2 of the DHSC will deliver a step change in the share price so that is the one factor to look out for.

Market concerns will be what future revenues will look like once Covid is under control and testing levels reduce hence why diversification via acquisition would be a smart move for Novacyt.

The current Share Price in my opinion is depressed because of two factors:-
a) These are pure estimates and proof is only in the delivery
b) The business does not trade on a respectable PE ratio its on a x cash rating as the market doesn’t yet know how to rate the business.

As results become known the above position will change.

We see businesses with significantly less revenues that Novacyt on significantly higher valuations.

Meanwhile Big pharma like GSK are on something like x 99 whilst Novacyt is on something like x 4 So loads and loads of scope for movement here as they further establish. This is why I remain bullish.

Meanwhile forum estimates are as follows:-
ShaunP 449
Porky9 250
HarChris 325 to 425
MacTrader 416
Zcec 450
BABA 262

Not long to wait now anyhow,
GLA

Hey its all good
We all want the best for this business and its continued success
When they get to mid cap status I will probably be more relaxed :)

High volumes of repurposed news regarding the vaccine plus expected approval of the Oxford vaccine tomorrow. I would like to think already priced in but you can never be sure how markets react.
Rather hoping the SP will hold up in France today. Time will tell.
Sooner we get a further update from Novacyt the better
GLA

New variant now found in eight other countries being reported
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4944

Misleading thread titles never a good idea on busy threads albiet your post well intentioned.

The board however still have much to do in order to avoid being classed as a one trick pony although a solid start, one swallow doesn't make a summer.

Funny one...
Stock market opens at 8.00 to 4.30 tomorrow in France but closed here for Bank Holiday.
So presume what ever the stock does tomorrow in France will be our opening position on Tuesday.
GLA

Not long to wait now until the results update, likely around 21st January
In the meantime, compliments of Tay a reminder of other key updates we could also hear about shortly:-

NEWS POSSIBILITIES FOR NOVACYT

* Microgen Tender Award for ‘Pathology and Point of Care’ £20 Billion Tender Award share
* Primer Design Centralised Lab Contract Renewal
* Phase II DHSC Unlock
* DHSC Contract for Community Settings
* Primer Design £22 Billion Testing ‘Framework’ Tender Award share
* Private Testing Deal announcement – Travel and other settings
* Antibody LFT and LAMP launch alongside Private/Public Deal. Possibly mobile LAMP too.
* New Device from IT-IS.
* VersaLab™ partnerships and PROmate™ PHE news re: non-lab settings.
* Second Q4 Acquisition
* Unknown surprise reveals – International Tenders/Sales Updates/TR1’s

Ideally, what i would like to see from Novacyt during the first quarter of 2021 is some kind of acquisition of a business involved in a different kind of Diagnostics, one that will help them further diversify their range that they can build on and support scale that can support longer term revenues.

Should start to get interesting shortly
GLA

@HarChris
I'm with you all the way, I truly hope you are right, anything above 300m would blow the broker forecasts away that's for sure and that's without the phase 2 DHSC awarded.
I'm trying not to get caught up in the excitement......

@ShaunP
"£250m , I assume you are talking of gross revenues, so this compares to my own of £449.4m
So one could say, I am a little more optimistic!"

Very true, only because I'm factoring in that there may be a lag between a purchase order being signed off by the sales department and Invoices raised after delivery of goods and tests processed as i suspect some will fall into the next FY.

But I think we can both agree that if they come in above the S P Angel estimate of 287 m that's going to be a fantastic result and if they come in any anything like your 450m estimate well frankly the SP will be in the Blue sky territory £35+.

And this is without phase 2 on DHSC, just imagine if that comes in.....

Hey, I remain incredibly bullish regarding Novacyt but let us just bring in a bit of perspective to the thread, a few wild estimates bouncing around here.

The confirmed FACTS to date:-
They delivered 72.4m in H1
They stated that the bulk of revenues 91% were in the second quarter of H1 and that June Revenues were confirmed as 25.4m and that H2 would be stronger than H1.

Therefore, if you did a very crude calculation and used 25m a month as the average for the remaining six months of H2 we can expect the full year to come in at 225m assuming similar volumes. We do not know if teething issues on roll out and training initially slowed the roll out of the Q machines or if other orders dropped in that took them over but, we must assume as no RNS out otherwise that results for H2 will be in line with what they reported.

Meanwhile: -
Numis forecast – SP £ 13.65 (Blue Sky £ 35)
SP Angel Forecast – Revenue 287m EBITDA 210m Net cash 79m – SP £ 14.63

Whilst I accept that some large orders can still drop, we must also accept that those revenues will likely fall into the 2021 accounting year.

ShaunP has some very detailed analysis on this subject, but for me, if I was betting, I am going to stick my head out the parapet and go with an estimate of 250m.

Of all the orders out there the DHSC contract extension would make a big difference but this is not factored into the current SP estimates.

If they come in above £ 250 m level at this point in their journey, I think that would be incredible but it’s the Results Jan 2022 for the 21 year when this gets exciting imo.

One thing is certain; at this point the company remains materially undervalued.

GLA not long to go now

@Colchester
It matters not, the science is completely proven. You couldn't produce more evidence if you tried. I think every national paper has covered it, the results from Liverpool confirm same, a white paper following testing at Birmingham University proved it, yet despite all of the proven scientific evidence the government still choose to ignore it.
As you can see from the contracts awarded, our government spent £ 826 m on LFTs with Innova which is just cheap sh@t made in China and only £ 469 m on 2 contracts with Primer Design producing quality. You couldn't make it up.

Either one or both of the following needs to occur:-
1. Government to see sense and award Primer Design more contracts for gold standard tests and we increase the volume of PCR tests in the UK.
2. Primer Design to roll out a more accurate rapid test to use alongside the current tests that Government can use instead of Innova. If the government are going to still insist on speed, better that Novacyt supply to them rather than someone else.

On a more positive note, irrespective of what our government does, other countries around the world are aware of the difference and the quality that Novacyt produce, not to mention the tests they have available for the new variants, as such it has to bode well for us anyhow.

Hopefully the SP will move up a gear after Jan results and we can build on this further during 2021

REAL Shame, they are all working so dam hard in shifts around the clock to protect the nation, 70,000 tests a day being processed
Hopefully they can make the place sterile quickly and get back on track

According to the lab worker, one new warehouse staff member received a positive test result after they had sat in the canteen during a period when a whole lab team had been in there for a break.
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-major-uk-testing-lab-suffers-coronavirus-outbreak-after-claims-of-safety-breaches-12172290

Almost 1,000 doses of the Covid-19 vaccine meant for a Cheshire town's most clinically vulnerable residents had to be thrown away:-
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/nearly-1000-covid-19-vaccine-19511985.amp
Storing at -70 will always create issues
No doubt when the Oxford Vaccine gets released we will see another fan fare but it’s how they execute the roll out that counts. Meanwhile, our SP has drifted £4 yet the outlook for testing has massively improved.
GLA

No cups with handles dainty or otherwise today it could’be affecting the share price.
We lost 50p over the last two days
Better to be safe than sorry - LOL
GLA - lets see what today brings

If the demand is there, you may as well supply to meet that demand to create an additional revenue line for the business. Taken from the R&D update:-
“Development of an antibody lateral flow test for COVID-19
On 29 September 2020, Novacyt announced the launch of its IgG specific antibody test for use in central laboratory testing. The Company is also working on developing an IgG antibody lateral flow test (LFT) for use as a rapid antibody test for professional use. An LFT is an easy-to-use diagnostic device used to confirm the presence or absence of a pathogen or biomarker. The product is expected to launch during Q1 2021 and is expected to take approximately 20 minutes or less to give a result.”

@Gazman123
Have to agree with you, just hope that Novacyt deliver a more accurate LFT or alternative in the New year if speed over accuracy is the dominant force here.
The BBC reporter clearly didn’t review the data from Birmingham University. Best quote of the report:-
“Prof Jacqui Ramagge, who led student testing efforts at the University of Durham, said "the chances of someone being positive when they are repeatedly testing negative is very, very low".
Amazing, each LFT is mutually exclusive, Testing twice negative means nothing if the accuracy isn’t there in the first place

@troublesome
LOL Thanks for the vote of confidence only I wouldn’t be any good, I would be sacking so many MPs I wouldn’t have anyone left in office :)