Member Info for Porky9

There is a legit fund of that trading name
However, the post is likely BS. The same posted said an RNS was due out on the 8th December and nothing landed so we can assume credibility zero.
Are we sure the account doesn't belong to share hunter?
Mind you even the boy who kept crying wolf got it right eventually....

@EXMEX
Are you thinking this new £300m to £2bn contract is instead of phase two?

From my own notes the contract awarded end of September was phase one 300 machines and maximum contract length 6 months. Initial 14 weeks £150m and further 10 weeks £100m a total of £250m. If there was some delay in full Roll Out due to staff training issues (Indy reported 200 machines initial not 300) then maybe this entire period was required for phase one.

So I’m thinking, the initial 14 weeks would take us to the year end and the extra 10 weeks to circa 2nd week of March being the period within the six months contract window.

Hence, Possible this new contract is for tender of phase two starting March time for the next year. Up to £2bn contract size is one hell of a big tender if that’s case?

Guess we will find out soon enough if they secure any of it?

Or perhaps it’s just as simple as recruiting a clinical director for the test trials but the job would also fit someone from a vaccine trials background
Anyhow, GLA, it would be a great start to 21 if phase two lands next week, let’s hope so we are due some breaks here.....

That’s a real shame Shaun, I was hoping the relationship between Novacyt and AZ was stronger and they might of partnered with Novacyt in that direction. Feels like a missed opportunity although I still don’t understand the jobs where vaccine experience is required - something going on I need this field?
No doubt we will hear more soon

Happy New year
Health, Wealth and Happiness to all
Stay safe

I looked into this company and can confirm that it looks genuine.
Not sure how they heard about this and it could still be pure wild speculation but i don't believe in smoke without fire and the SP did lift in the last half hour of trading today.

Lets face it we have been trying to second guess the DHSC on an almost daily basis now regarding whether the phase two of the contract will be triggered or not.

Based on what we know so far, i'e it remains the gold standard, its the best in the market and we have seen a greater swing towards PCR these last few weeks, not to mention Novacyt technology covers off the new variants, it kind of feels like a no brainer to me that phase two will be triggered.

I would say that If buying volume rises today and we get our 60p or more back from last week, (people always find these things out first from public sector workers in the know, news room staff etc etc) then next Monday could well be the day the news finally lands.

Then we should be in the £12 to £15 range, a step change in the SP, whoooa,,,,

Time will tell. GLA

@ChasPB
Appreciate the information wasn't of much interest on Shaun's side but personally i thought it a really interesting bit of fund data you have put together. Thanks for sharing.
I especially like this because;
i) Capital funds are getting onboard so clearly we are starting to show up on more radars and clearly they are liking the stock and consider it a good portfolio stock for growth to hold.
ii) Since Blackrock, our activity from funds is on the increase, which is great, says a lot about the business.
iii) The ninety one UK Smaller companies fund is run by ex Thread needle manager and ex Legal and General so clearly an experienced stock picker for the portfolio and they are confident to buy. Its not that big a capital fund either (249.78m fund)and they have selected Novacyt as a stock to add.
iv) The funds absorbed some of retail sales pre Christmas and this has helped bolster the SP

The one factor i absolutely love about holding this stock is that Retail are ahead of the curve. The market doesn't yet know how to rate this stock, it hasn't even got a PE of two yet, its on a cash rating and we are exploring the exponential growth this company is delivering. It really doesn't get better than this and now funds are starting to wake up to it and buy in.
Its a matter of time as results and trade further establish so will the correct rating of the business.
Bloody brilliant.

Yes Steve, but during the trials the second dose was given at week four. The reason they didn't get the green light initially was because some candidates were given half doses in error and some trials had to be re-run as a result. Then they said that it was a good thing having a half dose initially because it helped the body build up the immunity quicker. They do keep moving the goal posts.
Bottom line; we have to trust that a 12 week gap is better for the population as a whole but i'm with Kaeren here; our project management of these things at times leaves a lot to be desired.
We will see how well the roll out goes but they mentioned not likely to get the next batch of product until end of March, so its clear to me that the decision for a 12 week gap rather than 4 is not because its better for the individual but more to do with not actually having the 100 million product ordered ready, its a work in progress. Lets hope there are no delays on the manufacture and distribution side.

So the push now is to extend the second jab from the recommended four weeks to twelve weeks so they can get more people to stage one vaccine protection:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/covid-19-second-stage-nhs-vaccinations-delayed-across-uk

I can kind of see the logic that you can vaccinate more people to the first stage of protection level and that some protection is better than none; however, what data do they have based on a 12-week gap do they have to support this? Did they even run trials with a 12-week gap?

We had two instances reported yesterday where after the first jab they still caught Covid and it was claimed they had not got the full protection at that stage as they had not had the second jab.

Appreciate we are in a pandemic and speed is essential, but I would rather they get this right than rush at it.
Personally, I would like to see the actual data based on the half dose and then the full dose after four weeks and based on that data, replicate the exact same process. Am I on my own here?

Is not better to get people fully protected with the two jabs starting with most vulnerable.

I thought we had 100 million doses secured. Its now looking like we will be on rations by the sounds of it, yet the Oxford vaccine is our own product.

Perhaps I’m missing something here?

You were caught giving out top secret MM information.
Be careful those codes are not for the retail investor to know about
I think they are also protected under the official secrets act ;)

LMOL
What is the world coming to ?
GLA for tomorrow, but remember you heard about secret markers here. So secret the posts have been removed for fear investors will discover this top secret information

@crabtree
have they made any previous accurate assumptions regarding DHSC contracts?

If that proves true I would expect the SP to climb tomorrow but you never know could be just false whispers?

@Hartlebury
Its a really good point, i am not sure how much data would be required before they can accurately prove that having had the vaccine you can't pass it on. Likewise how long its effective for before you need another jab. Its got to be at least 8-12 mths I would of thought if not longer?
I think we all assuming it will likely be similar to the flu vaccine and you need it every year maybe? but it could be more frequent? we are totally in the dark in this regard.
Personally, I like the passport idea, proof of vaccination coupled with proof of a negative PCR test and you can travel where you like. Meanwhile, i think Spain are actually recording the names of people that decline not having the vaccine.... and the French, well they are French LOL, in a recent survey reported that take up will be less than 40%. so clearly we are going to need to keep testing for some considerable time

@EJackson
Wouldn't that be nice :)

@ Soder
Ref my falling credibility, LOL, i wont hold it against you:-
But consider this:-
IF, and i grant you its an IF at this moment results come in as forecast and IF, another IF, this stock was re-rated on a PE multiple of say x10, which i don't think is unrealistic? that would give us a Market value of £2bn.
Moving forward to the 2021 year IF, another if I grant you, results for 2021 came in as forecast with an EBITDA of 600m on that same PE ratio, then you have your 6 bn market value company.
So do i stand by my wild OTT estimate, well yes i do
I have not seen a company with this level of exponential growth in the last 10 years frankly.
GLA
The above is of course subject to results coming in as estimated and the market giving it a respectable PE ratio. At this point in time until results are known the market is unsure what to think?

Look guys may I politely remind anyone in any doubt that come results day we only have two broker forecasts in play to compare against and they are provided by Numis Security and SP Angel. Share Price targets £ 13.65 and £ 14.63 respectively. Blue Sky £ 34

SP Targets are based on the following forecasts for the 2020:-
Numis - Revenue 305m
SP Angel - Revenue 287m

Numis - EBiTDA 229m
SP Angel - 210m

Numis - Net Cash - 91m
SP Angel - Net Cash - 79m

If they hit these figures then the market will be confident that 2021 forecasts are also realistic
Time will tell

Finally, let’s not not also forget an extension of the DHSC contract would also see a step change in the SP

@Soder
Lose credibility... hmmmm, couldn’t care less, I believe what I believe. 2 years is my time line.
Still stand by estimate. No reason why they can’t become mid cap and a 6 bn valued one at that! Within twelve months from now this could well be a 1bn revenue business with a respectable PE ratio for sure and still growing via multiple revenue avenues, not just Covid.
Only thing that will prevent us shareholders seeing this is the risk of AZ or similar acquiring them before we see full value. That’s the real risk here as I see it

Market cap today £582m

Results forecast revenues at 270m, if so, no way can this company remain so undervalued.

With a decent PE ratio allocated I seriously think the SP can ten bag from this level, I continue to add as funds allow. It’s a no brainier imo

@donnodertrader
They are selling into 170 markets worldwide NOT just the U.K.
Hence why they have increased Capacity five fold

@Orions1
The position in the US is just horrendous
They are however funding significant increases in testing from Jan 1 so hopefully can gain some control soon.
Novacyt really need to support the US, I would say a stateside acquisition to expand further into this market would be a good call