Member Info for Porky9

@RBMInvest
I believe most of the regulars here are fully aware of the potential and expected performance, we have researched and evaluated it to death.
Some of the best researchers are contributing to this forum and we are confident. Those that wanted out and quick returns in the main, are already out pre Christmas.
I think it's more the frustration that PR is minimal and we are digging away for information, the company hasn't updated its website to say when results are actually out and we are hearing news items about our competitors, MPs talking about German products yet we have possibly the best in the market but they are not communicating that, even with tests out to detect the new variants, which is major news there was not a mention anywhere in the press, shocking.
But apart from the PR issues everything else regarding the fundamentals is absolutely sound. This is a business with exponential growth on a whole new scale and that's why we are all supporting them.
You may well be right with your revenue estimate, we a have a range of suggestions, the big question is more about how long it will take the market to start to properly rate them and respect them as the blue chip business they are with a decent PE ration, that is more the question?
As you say, once results are out and trading update this will provide greater clarity, only a few weeks to go
GLA

@Hartleburry
LOL - Lost it somewhere between seeing ARB continue its climb, NCYT losing another 4% on an already discounted valuation and other diagnostics stocks that are absolute crap having better recognition by the market than we do.
Will work on it for tomorrow :)

Oh and they did $20m revenue in the last quarter.
So lets call it $80m in the year, was token last year
And was taken out at $600m

Meanwhile, we are sitting here at a FCKing Market Cap of £ 592m and sliding downhill, likely to turn in over 250m of revenue this year and some wonder why shareholders are starting to get ****'ed off - You couldn't make it up....

Come on... this just isn't right

"28.3% to the closing price per share of USD 17.15 on January 5, 2021"
600 m take out price

I'm inclined to agree
Once full results get published and facts are known, it ill be within a few weeks of that imo.
Lets say results come in as forecast with 210 EBITDA and the forecasts are set for 21 at the same level.
On the current PE of X3 or less bung shareholders 40-45% premium take it out at £12 or less.
IF a player like AZ took them out, they would have a massive ready made diagnostics division to add to their business but moreover, as they have a PE of x99 it would add significant value to their business instantly. in fact it would be like acquiring them for free - no brainer meanwhile shareholders get shafted.
The lower the SP slides in the meantime the cheaper the deal hence;
Why good PR is so so so important now to bolster the share price so this doesn't happen.

Yes but i think a number of supporting shareholders are looking at the share price decline and thinking so much for being a loyal shareholders, the traders are winning.
You could of sold before Christmas and brought back in cheaper, or do nothing and if it keeps sliding by the time results come out buy back in the day before results day.
A steady bit of PR and good communication, some news articles, an updated website, would all help keep the interest levels up.
Anyhow, i believe they will address this in time
GLA

The fundamentals of the business are sound
The board of Directors are sound and recently strengthened
The market is massive, the products are best in class

It is only the PR section that needs support, that is all. However, I agree that this is contributing to lack of interest in the shares and loss of possible shareholder confidence. Its not an insurmountable problem but it needs fixing.

Every newspaper, MP, influencer, shareholders and the general public should Know all about how great this business and what they have been doing to help fight this awful pandemic. When they put out the RNS about picking up Variants recently frankly they should have been on the ten o'clock news with it, shouting from the rooftops. This is what we are talking about i believe. They can fix it.

@ShearClass
I totally agree, its similar to the example i gave with EKF yesterday, that's also exact same sector, half our mark cap and its H1 was £25m£7m profit. It was pointed out that its forward earning estimate was £60m revenue and that its PE would reduce to X13.5 but even so its significantly higher rated by a long chalk than Novacyt. We can only dream of a PE of 13.5X.
As for ARB, it was the American listing for sure, they were not being recognised on our market, bouncing around at a low valuation and that move has just catapulted the share price. Big US funds buying in, sheer madness.
I'm hoping the full year results with positive forward estimates will see this stock properly valued.

Fair enough
LOL tell me about it, I was hold ARB at 9p and got off the aircraft not long after take off and it just keeps climbing.
Finding growth stocks is one thing, timing exit another
Im hopeful long term of £30+ if the year end comes in over estimates it will give me confidence that H1 21 will be solid. IN which case I will review again after H1 results.
Time will tell
Good luck to all

Good to hear from you. We were worried you had done a Sharehunter on us and vanished? Stay safe.
You mention £1bn and £15. GM has said he intends to take this to mid cap status that would be £2 bn to 10bn level. £30+
I was looking at exit over £30, do you think I’m being to ambitious now?

Not sure if we picked up on this yesterday or not:-
https://www.traveloffpath.com/uk-to-require-pcr-test-for-entry/
"Major changes are coming down the pipe for entry requirements into the United Kingdom as a new mandatory PCR test will soon be enforced. All passengers arriving into the UK will have to show proof of a negative PCR test, taken no longer than 72 hours before arrival."
"Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove told Good Morning Britain on January 5 that the government’s decision regarding the PCR testing requirement will soon become public"

This is not Anti Vax, it's a Sky News report just out:-
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-single-vaccine-dose-leads-to-greater-risk-from-new-coronavirus-variants-south-african-experts-warn-12180837
"New lab tests showing that antibodies may be at least 10 times less effective against the new variant"
I currently want the vaccine as soon as possible but this is a very worrying development.

@HarChris
If i could super recommend your comments about McCarthy posted at 22.33 i would. Thanks for reminding us of this blinding fact that was so easily overlooked.
NB. The other Porky9 is in a similar trading position to you, he is chill now :)

Yes, you are correct..

I previously worked out that the 10 week extension would take us to circa mid Feb. I also figured out that even if roll out of machines in the first part had been delayed (200 machines not 300) they could still use that window to ensure training was put in place, complete the order and ensure any teething issues ironed out.

A totally new contract would be required from March or the Phase 2 implemented in March if it comes our way. One of the researchers here found a bid stats tender for a new contract and it was for a value between £300m and £2 billion which looked exactly like the DHSC phase 2.

They wouldn't need to issue an RNS on the 10 week extension as its already known although i would expect it likely they would update us of progress in the results report out end of this month.

Now if phase 2 got triggered that would warrant an RNS as it would be material and likely result in a step change to the Share Price.

Exciting times :)

I have just come on the BB Night Shift and I have decided to sack the other Porky9

It was this lock down i think.....In his business life he sees changes he wants to make and implements them. Well of course he can't do that here and was getting frustrated with MMs playing with the share price when its already so low especially having sold other stocks that were rising.

Anyhow, he's gone now. I reminded him why he was invested in the first place and told him that the share price will eventually right itself in time.

His arms and back were all hairy, not a good look,...... :)

GLA

Thanks for all the feedback on this matter.

I won’t comment further after this final post on this subject for fear of boring fellow investors with my frustration.

The following relates to another business on the AIM involved 100% in Diagnostics and working specifically on Covid Orders currently. Similar to Novacyt but not in the same league in my opinion.

This is how the market values and rates this business:-

EFK Diagnostics (EKF)
Financial Year Runs to 31/12 the same
Market Cap £ 318m
PE Ratio: X 85.19 – YES that’s 85 Times not a typo
H1 2020
Revenues £ 25 m
Profit £ 7.5 m

2019 Full Year
Revenues £ 45 m
Profit £ 5.5 m
PE Ratio: X 42.3

2018 Full Year
Revenues £ 42 m
Profit £ 12.4 m
PE Ratio X 12.4

So even back in 2018 it was attracting X12 PE Ratio and yet our half year results have delivered more than this company has in its entire trading history from what i can see.

Anyhow, it is what it is, Keeping the faith that eventually the dots will join up…..

GLA

OK, we are where we are until actual results are out. We have to assume that Graham is doing his level best to create shareholder value and is still on track in turning Novacyt into a mid cap company, we are all in agreement.

Now let's take the S P Angel report as the most accurate estimate as it was updated end of October :-
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020_Oct_SP_Angel_Novacyt_Initiation_Note_21.10.2020.pdf

Clearly states 2020 Year Revenue 287.80 and expected EBITDA 210.60

Now then, agreed we don't know if correct or not and the market requires a) proof of delivery and b) continual revenues to set a sensible ongoing PE ratio, totally get that.

Now PE rations for Diagnostics groups, many examples are between x8 and x12 on average from what I can see unless, anyone here more informed disagrees? I'm totally discounting big organisation's btw including pharma where they go sky high like x99. So lets say x9 is a medium average.

So taking the S P Angel figures on a that PE of X 9, that would give us a market cap of 1,895.40m OR share price of £ 26.77

So what exactly what am i missing here?? it remains on a cash rating because the market doesn't trust they can deliver? They see it as a short term business so wont re-rate? is this is? what is the reason?

IF so, what do we need to do to change market perception?? Any ideas? :-

1. Acquire a business to give further long term revenues? would that do it?
2. Merge with a business on the Nasdaq and dump the French listing to get properly re-rated? would that work?
or is it a case of
3. delivering results now and in 22 and 23 and eventually the market wakes up to them? but at what point?

I'm clueless here just watching it bounce around at what i consider to be a quarter of its market cap and wondering why its still being held back on a effectively a cash rating?

This business could soon be the TOP revenue producing business on the AIM index something surely has to give at some point??

GLA - sorry if i sound frustrated at times.... i genuinely care

If we are in line with broker forecasts that's Revenues between 287.80m and 305.00m for the 2020 year and forecast estimates of 290.2m for 2021 year.

Meanwhile the SP doesn't reflect that anyhow. 607m market cap after todays fall.

needs to be Pork vindaloo if that's where this is going... lol

@HarChris
You are right the share price drifting doesn't help, especially when you see other stocks that are not even in the same league doing well. So that possibly does add to it i would agree. PR Could be better, is a school boy error imo. But as you say results out shortly with hopefully a decent update will help.
@Surfie1961
Naar sleeps for wimps, I take two short power naps a day. I work full time as well :)
I will however take that chill pill. I have shut up now :)