Member Info for Porky9

LOL hardly a rocket....
Another 10p and we can get back to where we started on Monday morning
Another £ 4 odd and we can get back to £ 12.25 where we were back in November...
GLA

Yet another bumbling update scheduled for later today but reports already out confirming that UK lockdown will last through to March at the earliest:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/covid-lockdown-in-england-likely-in-place-until-march-gove-warns
Stay Safe

@ShearClass
I actually looked at the exact same company a few weeks back and using their exact same valuation matrix against NCYT came up with a share price of £ 25.60. I then spent the next five minutes scratching my head wondering why the NCYT share price was not correctly valued/ why it was so ridiculously cheap.
I then went onto Nasdaq to try and find as many Diagnostics related businesses i could and the lowest PE ratio i could find was 9, the majority are 10+.
The only conclusion i could come to is that NCYT is still on a cash rating because a) the market doesn't believe its revenues are sustainable and b) it has no real clarity of what there actual revenues are.
After results day this information will be known. I'm not saying i expect a rerating on that day but in time it has to happen. You cant have a business like NCYT which could end up being the TOP revenue and Top growth business on the AIM with such a low value.
Hence why i agree its a screaming buy at this level and if results come in over forecast even better :)

@TimV
Sleeps for wimps, LOL, take care now :)

Look I don’t like that this is becoming a bash Mandy thread. She is doing a superb job from what I can see. The business has outgrown the current resource.

Just like the finance department has been strengthened we now need to strengthen PR. We need to add some top draw appointments that can help further strengthen their position on the world stage.

Maybe even a couple of solid non exec appointments could be in order?, either way we have outgrown the current PR section due to our success, not a bad thing but it has to be put on the “to do list” if we are to sit at top table. That’s all I’m saying.

“Why it needs good PR”

Simple: The business is in an exponential growth phase, they intend to position it as a mid cap company. As such they will need to sit along side the big boys and the world needs to know how great they are.

As shareholders we own a small bit of this company, we can discuss what they do great and also what needs improvement.

At the current time imo we have outgrown the existing PR function, it’s needs improving and massively expanding as they further attack the world stage and there is no way to sugar coat that

Further strengthening of the board a great move, another positive

At least we all know who the real James McCarthy is now, lol

@Whatnonewsyet
Indeed that was the impression we got from comments posted on Twitter etc and staff actually working the equipment. They not only increased training support but you are right they also rolled out a technical enhancement to reduce the number of steps involved in the process. we picked that up from the staff at ground floor level but nothing official came out of the company regarding its progress.
Hopefully the trading update will provide more clarity.

@Afterburn450
We did explore the Indy article in some depth at the time, I recall it was edited numerous times, so I am not totally convinced on accuracy from contributing editors as they are often lazy in reporting but possibly no smoke without fire.

The technology outperforms the nudge machines that were in use. 30 tests per hour v nudge at one test 90 mins. Further, we understand the sites where the staff are trained the tech delivers to high level, but it looks like training was a consideration, but they can support that, and this would be the same with any new technology provider.

Product improvements were also made shortly after to further support easier roll out to management.

Based on the RNS 29/9/20 this was the second DHSC contract and it was supplying the DHSC for 6 months. So, we can assume this is between 1/10/20 and 31/3/21 and a new contract after 31/3 would be required. It was in two phases.

Phase one has a fixed term of 14 weeks with the potential to extend by a further ten weeks. So, we can assume 14 weeks is to 31/12 and the 10 weeks would be until second week of March 21.

Phase one was 300 kits for £150m for those 14 weeks and the extended 10 weeks was at £100m if extended.

Phase two was optional and was for a further 700 kits and related services – it now looks like this phase is under a new bid stats entry and Is an even bigger requirement.

As far as we know the contract was not cancelled. If it were then an RNS of same would be issued. IF there was teething issues with staff training as per the Indy article, then likely the business would step up to address those.

So, what are the possible outcomes: -
1. Worse case scenario, 200 kits were installed not 300 so £ 100m and they did not continue.
2. 200 Kits were installed and the final 100 installed during the extended period (not paid) to complete the order with additional training £ 150m and they did not continue
3. 300 Kits were delivered were ultimately delivered on time and they continued through to the end of the contract with the extra 10-week (paid) period £ 250m.
4. Best case scenario, all issues resolved, and consideration now being given for a further 700 machines or a higher or smaller number – either way more business.

So, the bottom line really is that in view of the worldwide sales being achieved whatever the outcome, regarding the DHSC it can only add to revenues.

If I were a betting man, no matter what technology is installed at a local hospital training would be a factor and the hospital have various departments currently under pressure so imo if DHSC did not award the entire contract, I would be surprised if they did not award at least some of it to them?

After all, the machines are in use at over 200 sites for sure and they already have invested knowledge transfer within the NHS on regarding operation of this equipment. They currently need to add to the capacity not reduce it.

We will find out soon anyhow….

@ShaunP
"Any slack on the £406m contract, is I believe being fully offset by the other "outlets", in particular UNICEF & Overseas distributors. Therefore my "hunching over the trolley" estimate still remains at €499m sales revenue"

I can't fault your logic Shaun and would take the exact same view, this is why i posted the thread the other day "DHSC Does it matter". The network is established, they have the product and no doubt in my mind regarding demand, its off the scale.

If the result's come in even close to these estimates we will see a sizable step in the SP, further, it will give confidence for the 2021 year. If some of these contracts land on top then even better.

I still remain bullish about the business irrespective of the short comings of their PR department

GLA

@Soder
I would absolutely love to say that phase two is coming our way, I believe that Novacyt deserve it and are well placed to deliver but I also realise that I am looking at this from a biased position. Nothing is certain.

Yes, its likely that the size of the deal will be increased I totally agree but we also must accept that the infection rates in the UK are five times that of France. This puts us well and truly under the microscope. Other diagnostics groups will be going hell for leather to take that contract and it is back up for open tender.

Meanwhile, we have just seen a deal last week where the government have backed Thermo Fisher to run and staff an entire new lighthouse lab in Loughborough to process 50,000 PCR tests a day with their own kit. They are now looking for 400 staff.
They did not request our own British company to power it, no, they ran to the Americans.

Government now have a habit of making the wrong decisions, giving contracts to cronies, buying tat from China, its all there to see.

Meanwhile, as I posted earlier, in PM questions an MP was referring to German technology like it was some kind of miraculous solution yet there is nothing the Germans do that we do not. Based on the conversations you would think Novacyt did not even exist. When the RNS was published about the new variants again no mention of the great work that Novacyt have been doing. This is partly because our PR leaves a lot to be desired, frankly.

So, in conclusion, it just may not come our way. Obviously, I hope it does but there has been absolutely nothing out from the company to even suggest they completed the phase one successfully.

The only thing that is certain is that the world stage is ginormous, and we know for a fact that they are supplying to 170 countries. As such we are not dependent on the one DHSC government contracts irrespective of if we deserve it or not. Sales will likely exceed forecasts, we cant be sure, but with demand this high its more likely than not.

“Time will soon tell but I have a feeling this thing is gonna blow” I’m with you all the way – I hope your right, I’m backing the same horse in this race ??

@ShaunP
I was reviewing your forecast data in some detail and as discussed brokers are expecting SP Angel in at 273m and Numis security in at 305m. On your data you are in at 499m and that looks conservative, i can't argue with your assumptions used despite my own previous estimate being half of your total!!
I'm not as confident on phase 1 of the DHSC being invoiced/paid on time as i'm wondering if there were delays in training and roll out and as no news on the extension makes me question if that is still likely to happen?. However, even discounting that it would still put worst case scenario in at circa 400m which would still be 40 to 45% ahead of broker forecasts.
So at what point would a company need to say they will be ahead of expectations?? What constitutes a material increase in revenues?

I read the H1 statement again and they clearly stated:-
"The AIM-listed group highlighted that given the visibility of orders, extended contracts and the launch of new Covid-19 related products, revenues for the second half were now expected to be greater than the first half of the year and margins to be at least at a similar level."
So is that statement alone enough?
At the moment i don't know what to think other than if they were behind in the second half they would need to tell us and as its radio silence, I can only assume they are going to be ahead as planned
I'm hoping your figures are right Shaun, it would be fantastic if they are :)
GLA

Lets hope the colleges ban anyone from drinking diet coke before they get tested :)

Amazing;
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/over-5000-armed-forces-deployed-in-support-of-the-covid-response-in-the-biggest-homeland-operation-in-peacetime
"Testing will continue as planned with two rapid Lateral Flow Tests available to all secondary school and college students and staff at the start of term to identify asymptomatic cases, break chains of transmission and beat the virus"

I'm trying to remain positive here but why in Gods name are they doing the same thing again and expecting a different outcome?
I say for even quicker speed lets just flip a coin for each school child. Heads you stay at School, Trails you go home and get a PCR test to confirm your result.

I doubt it Crabtree
Probably open down and drift down a bit more....

@Airlineboy
I absolutely share your frustration and i am one of the most bullish on this board. For me personally I'm starting to doubt my own stock picking ability. I sold out of both ARB and PHE at the wrong time to invest further here and both have more than trebled in price in the meantime. Meanwhile, the company here, which i consider as probably my best stock in terms of future exponential growth story and one i really believe in what they are doing and the management team are not updating us on anything? the share price drifts, we now have funds effectively day trading the shares to make a few quid (todays RNS) and shareholders are having to phone them to get basic info on when results and trading statement are out. Its really not good enough.
Hopefully i will feel better tomorrow, perhaps join Shaun but with a pint of Gin....

ditto
like i said in my earlier post, they can't even put out a basic RNS confirming when results are out or update their website, shareholders are having to phone them to find out! Rightly frustrated as a result - real shame.
PR is shocking

Tay
Many here would back you.
If i were you i would work out what you need to run such a site and use a well established funding site like the indiegogo example i gave you to raise some funds over a set period of time, Include donations, annual membership fees etc and see what support you get. If you cant get enough support you have your answer?
Lets face it, if we get to June and the stock is really taking off, you might find donations flying in to thanks you further :)

Thanks Tay
It was just an idea, as i see great potential in your work but i do see where you are coming from. I would certainly be interested in following on any other stocks you are researching for sure. Perhaps i need to pay more attention to your twitter account?
You are a top draw researcher and your efforts to help retail get ahead of the ii's is to be commended. Fantastic work. Thanks again

I agree Kaeren, the SP does move on sentiment and its all the more price movement we have to make back up when an update does occur. Hence this constant drifting is a pain in the ars@.

Frankly, i can't fault this business in relation to Graham and the management team, the technologies, the contracts etc but lets be honest their PR needs seriously looking at. They should either outsource PR or set up a team dedicated to doing this because currently they let shareholders down in this regard.

Every MP, government minister, the national press, they should all know about what Novacyt are doing and be screaming how great this business is at every turn. It's a total disgrace to hear two bit MPs in PM questions suggesting German testing providers rather than this great business.

Finally, at an even more basic level, it wouldn't take much effort to release an RNS stating the date results and trading update will be out or even update the bloody website. It's a bit much that shareholders need to call them to find out and this is why some small holders are losing interest which again is tragic.