Member Info for Porky9

Maybe so, but I just came in and noticed our SP has slid from 8.92 this morning now into negative territory. I mean the stock is undervalued enough as it is.
Thought we might clear the 9s today and get the New Year off to a solid start, so much for that
GLA

I am genuinely really hoping that Novacyt can deliver a more accurate Rapid Antigen Test or something at least more accurate than these products out of china. I know they have a number of products under development in this area, lets hope they come through.
But even then we need our government to wake up and buy from them, but clearly the position has to change. We can't go on buying tests with dire accuracy levels out of china.

Guardian reporting today, its old news we already know about on data to the end of November, but illustrates the ridiculous position of buying cheap LFTs from China:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/01/ba-among-airline-firms-paid-millions-to-ferry-in-covid-testing-kits
BA were paid £ 15 m of our money to fly the crap from China to the UK
" DHSC bought the kits on an “ex works” basis, meaning the supplier was not required to take care of transporting the kits to the UK. Where product has to be sourced on an ex works basis it is imperative that this product is moved at the earliest opportunity to prevent it being sold to higher bidders”

"The latest contract notices, published on 31 December, are the first to detail the role of airlines and aviation brokers in supplying testing kits to the UK. The reference to “gazumping” also illustrates the degree of concern among officials that suppliers could rip up contracts if they received a better offer. The government has spent more than £1bn on lateral flow test kits since late October, according to publicly available contract information."

We can only hope that this year the government reflect on some of the bad decisions they have made during 2020 especially surrounding the overuse of LFTs in the wrong setting and further support more British companies with these contracts. £1 billion is a heck of a lot of money to spending on RATs.
Oh and don't make me laugh regarding rushing to buy due to "gazumping" , heck we must be the only country dumb enough to buying from them. They were probably advertised on i-saw-you-coming-dot-com.

Welcome to the board Daniel
This is possibly the best stock thread on the entire LSE chat forum with some of the best research data to help us retail investors stay ahead of the Institutional investors.
Good Luck

Wouldn't it be nice if loyal shareholders were rewarded with an RNS landing at 7.00am.

Today is day one of news season, this is where it starts to get interesting

GLA

The suggestion to roll out the AZ Oxford Vaccine and give the second shot 12 weeks apart instead of 4 weeks really doesn’t sit well with me. Am i on my own? It’s like at every given turn this government ignores the science.
In need India they are granting use based on the original data of two full doses 4 weeks apart to deliver 62% protection.
https://www.rt.com/news/511382-india-approves-astrazeneca-vaccine/amp/
There is no trial data for anyone over 55 and we all know the older you get the less receptive you are to your immune system protecting you.
A report is due to come out advising how the percentage can be increased but what data is there to prove it? What data is there to support a second dose 12 weeks later still being as effective?
The bottom line is we are trusting them but if the general public still catch Covid having been vaccinated we are going to end up in an even bigger mess.
Really worrying times,
I’m confident Novacyt will go from strength to strength and deliver massive upside from here on the SP but equally I don’t want to be the richest man in the graveyard either.
The vaccine Roll Out has to be done right

The European CE Marking approval was 8th September so if they applied for that then perhaps they do need FDA on Winterplex
Looks like second quarter then?

Not sure if separate additional FDA approval is required for Winterplex as they already have FDA on Genesig products / key component elements
Process takes about 6 months on average
http://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/novacyt_launches_diagnostic_test_to_differentiate_between_covid-19_and_flu_1347432
End of August so end of March/ second quarter?

@Triumph1
If you are a paid up and verified member your opinion would count as much as anyone else.

This issue in your case is that you only ever show up when the share price goes down to tell us what a crap investment choice we have made and we should back your crappy breath test tech company. When the price goes up we never hear from you. Although to be fair you did spring up recently with a post about DHSC but that's a rare event. I'm talking about active members sharing ideas.

@MacTrader
" I wouldn't mention them here as my motives would be obvious"
I see where you are coming from, however I would want to know about them. Could well be a stock there i had not considered? and i'm old enough and ugly enough to make my own call if I want to back it or not. Meanwhile, if Tay selected 5 to feature they would be the 5 main bedrock longer term stock holds

@troublesome
Not likely to be more beneficial than investing; but i would hate a quality researcher like Tay to down tools on grounds of financially viability. It takes time and money to carry out that level of research. A lot want to read it but not pay for it; bit like reading shares mag in the kiosk before you catch the train and then not buy it. However, there are a few like me that would subscribe and he probably only needs something like 2 or 300 members to make it viable.
Just a thought anyway

Position in the States is just getting worse by the day;-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9107511/US-COVID-19-Country-sets-single-day-record-275-897-Americans-test-positive.html
"The United States has set yet another record for new COVID-19 cases with almost 300,000 people testing positive in a single day, as new CDC data suggests the nation's true death toll is actually approaching half a million. As of Saturday, the total number of US deaths in the pandemic topped 350,000 after 2,398 new fatalities were reported"

We really need to increase our support stateside where possible

@EXMEX
Not to mention R&D tax credits based on the extent of ongoing R&D carried out which will help support

Off Topic
FAO Tay Q – Hope you see this message

You have probably considered this already, but would you consider later this year running an “AIM Insider” website where information on say four or five high growth stocks could feature?

Include a member only forum area to discuss and share data on specific stocks and suggest stock ideas? Perhaps information released to members before it made public?

It's history now but for example I have carried out research on other stocks in the past and kept it to myself. The board at LSE was just full of idiots, ADVFN not much better and I did not see the point which is a shame for serious investors that could also cross examine the data. Meanwhile ShaunP here has just been amazing with his research and likewise a number of others here. This board is unique as it has several good researchers, and it would great if this could be pooled together somehow? LSE is not the place for the quality also, the board fails us when we most need it!!

It would also be a benefit when the company is in a dry spell and we are hearing nothing. Good to invest the time on other research.

A long way back there was a subscription magazine posted out called AIM and OFFEX news, it featured a handful of companies but with decent research. It is where I initially learned about “As Seen On Screen” ASOS when it listed at 5p. The magazine ceased to trade after the internet took off, but it was brilliant. It was not like shares magazine and all these other publications full of adverts, it was a proper research piece of the standard you deliver over at Novacyt Insider.

If you worked out what it would cost to start, update, and operate something like this you would know how much to charge for membership? I would happily pay you a few hundred quid a year for something like that. 300 members for example at £200 a year = £ 60k

I noticed a short while ago a blogger fund raising for a website, different sector nothing special, this guy is produces nothing like the quality you do but it illustrates how the concept can work. See this fundraiser: https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/ecf-buzz-the-crowd-investors-information-centre#/

Anyhow, I for one would support you if it were of interest. You could take contributions, have founding or premium members, you could really build on it. As it stands, I fear you are doing exceptional work Tay and not getting the returns you deserve for your hard work.

All the best

You also have to consider that the volume was not as high due to reported initial issues In obtaining reagents and moreover staffing and staff training issues. I don’t know what scientific recruitment is like In Cambridge but I would imagine that on the assumption that test and trace might be a two year window a good scientist might prefer to work elsewhere?
It will be interesting to see how Perkin Elmer get on in Loughborough trying to find 400 staff for another test and trace lab there

@ShaunP
I just wouldn't beat yourself up regarding the Cambridge Rhino, it is what it is. We are doing plenty of business elsewhere.

I notice that a new Rhino to support track and trace was opening up in Loughborough where they intend to increase testing capacity to 50,000 and they are currently recruiting 400 staff to man it. This Rhino is being managed by Perkin Elmer, its an ex AZ site they run and they are providing all the diagnostics services for it.
https://www.business-live.co.uk/technology/400-jobs-created-covid-19-19372196

I suspect that a whole range of different suppliers will be in play at different locations, all hands to the pump. Maybe Cambridge are buying from Perkin Elmer who knows? Not sure how much capacity Perkin Elmer have in the UK or what deals they have cut but on the world stage demand remains outstripping supply.

Different conversation, but this is why i still worry if after results are known the business will get acquired by a bigger fish that just needs the extra capacity.

@MacTrader
"I also don't want to be a ramper as well, my SP would sound ridiculously high"

Probably a good call, I posted a few days back that i believed the SP could 10 bag from this point. Become a solid mid cap coy in the £5-6 bn valuation region to be told that comments like that result in "loss of credibility"

Time will tell but the next couple of years are going to get very interesting and I'm prepared to sit it out!! This is exponential growth on a whole new scale as i keep saying...

GLA

I think some here are thinking far to deep regarding the DHSC contract.

Look, its never a good business strategy to rely on a single client least of all a government department where awards can go to all kinds of cronies without any logic or regard and contracts can be won, lost, or given out in the most unlikely places.
Its frustrating because we all know that phase two of DHSC should come our way, likewise the care home contracts but we have no guarantees.

So, lets look at what we have got; world beating technologies, nice spread of global clients, solid order book worldwide and an expanding network of partners and resellers.

IF on results day they turn in anything even close to 250 m revenue and 200 m EBIT then it does not take Einstein to work out that on a PE of x10, which is the average for Diagnostics that would give us a market cap of £2bn or £ 30 a share.

Now I know, some will say, yes but Pork's that is for an established business doing that every year blah blah blah, but I say, look lets face it, results could come in higher, if they deliver in 2020, they can deliver in 2021 and if they do that, they have sufficient capital to expand via acquisition which will further strengthen and endorse their hold within the diagnostics sector.

So, my view is forgetting about the DHSC, if it comes it is the cherry on the cake, a bloody big cherry I grant you, but its not essential to the business. There is far too much demand from worldwide markets to be concerned about one client in our home market. If our government are too dumb not to see the advantages of supporting a UK business and would rather buy cheap crap from China or buy products from anywhere else sobeit, we can do it with or without them.

The only thing that can screw this up now for shareholders in my opinion, is if results come in this month and we find they are significantly below forecast and by that, I mean under £200m of revenue and under £150m EBIT. So from where I am sitting, on the basis that they have not put out a statement saying otherwise, I’m expecting them to deliver and the upside potential from here looks superb as I see it.

At the current SP, the stock is a screaming buy imo and that is why the investment funds are adding. It is just a matter of time now, keep patient and it will come.

GLA

I can’t see a dividend being likely, they have already confirmed an acquisition program for 2021 so will need the capital for that

Quality find that is Kaeren, thanks for sharing.

It really doesn't surprise me that activity levels have been this high. When i look at the diagnostics sector, which is now evolving and in my opinion being taken seriously within not just our own home market but worldwide it just screams consolidation to me.

I can only hope that its Novacyt doing the acquisitions and shareholders see the growth but my fear remains that it could be us that become the prey especially after the Jan results are out when they have delivered conclusive proof of revenues and direction of travel.

Anyhow, lets hope we are here for that continued growth story.

There is a heck of a lot of uncertainty regarding if that DHSC contract will be extended or not. I have absolutely no idea. If it does get extended that would be a great win for us BUT with that new DHSC tender issued Friday it makes me question if it will come our way.

What i do think is, on the negative side, is that if phase one had been cancelled or they couldn't complete it due to staff training delays (i believe that they only likely reason) and revenues were lost as a result, I would consider that a material event and a negative RNS would have been issued stating same that H2 would be bellow expectations. As we haven't had any negative update from them we can only assume its still all in order.

As it stands we have no reason to think that results won't remain in line with forecasts. As i previously stated, for me if results come in at anything like Revenues of £250m and EBITDA of £ 200M, I am a VERY happy man.

Anything above this level or any new large contracts or acquisitions and I'm ecstatic !! Anything lower than £200m revenue and I'm disappointed.

GLA not long to wait now...