Member Info for Porky9

To be fair GM does have four Non Exec's on the board helping shape direction:-
https://novacyt.com/board/

There is certainly room for a couple more non exec positions here that could add value imo. I think the business could benefit in that direction. Also, depending on the next acquisition target, that could result in some additions so it could happen by default anyhow.

GLA

Some good points raised albeit some could have been made a little more diplomatically ??.

Look, we all share the same objective here and that is to see the business do well and the share price reflect that and continue to grow.

My observation is that the board, GM specifically is great at what he does, he is totally dedicated to the cause and irreplaceable. But its equally fair to say that they have become victims of their own success; the business has grown at an exponential rate and now needs to be positioned for the next phase of growth. In business, I always say, “you don’t know what you don’t know” and GM whilst an absolute genius in his field needs to strengthen the board for the future and ensure that high level appointments are made to fill those knowledge gaps that he does not know.

The recent appointment of James McCarthy as CFO was a fantastic move, it also proves he does want to expand the business. I was personally delighted by this. I do not care if it was Blackrock driven or not, fact is it was addressed, sorted and a smart move.

I now want to see some quality PR and communications appointments. I do not buy into “they are keeping things quite because the market doesn’t like businesses to profit from Covid” that’s utter BS. Trust me on this, most market makers would sell their granny if they thought it would make money, morals and investment do not apply, sorry.

You could argue that they were first to discover the variants and first to have a test to identify them. Heck, the RNS was the day before the Government speech. With good PR they should have been on EVERY news coverage, News at Ten, interviews the whole show letting the public know how great they are and the hard work going into saving lives and helping us get on top of this virus – however it was another missed opportunity.

What do we get instead? Stupid articles about “if I had invested 10p I would have made a million quid” and other such junk, wow, “if my wife had wheels, she would be a bicycle” oh and negative crap from the Indy about kit not working. No counter articles, no coverage, no nothing about how great they are, just silence.

So, do I think things could be better? sure hell they could.

We want the figures to do the talking shortly and I am sure they will, not long to wait now but I also want to see a fan fare around all the developments and future plans. They are a superb top draw business helping potentially save the world, not a dirty word, lets champion them. The world needs Novacyt!!

GLA

Also don’t forget that the SP is supposed to represent the true value of the business. If you pick up a “Diamond bracelet” at a car boot sale for 50p because the owner thought it cosmetic and you sell it on for £1k but it then goes on to sell for £ 10k in auction, the new owner is not interested that the original buyer made 2000 x ROI, he’s not interested that the second buyer made x10 ROI either he is interested in what it’s worth now and what it will be in the five years,
Novacyt is that Diamond with potential

@ShearClass
Value your opinion and thoughts however, I would kindly point out that you do need to consider that events have moved on since the start a fair amount. Great for you if you got in early and are sitting on a terrific gains but no so much fun for investors buying in since September that have been buying at amounts from £8 to £12.50 and currently nursing losses.
I myself have a significant holding built in this company at various prices and it’s built from hard graft not from the share price rise for early investors.
Good luck to you but it’s 2021 and I’m not to interested in it’s past history now, I’m interested in where they are going and if they will make mid cap status or not

Do you know, over at EFK Diagnostics its SP has increased 4.5% today and its market cap stands at £ 327.6m
Its trading is good, nothing special, same sector but revenues strong due to Covid test sales
It's H1 delivered £ 25m Revenue and and 7.5m Profit and its expects H2 to be ahead of H1
PE Ratio X 85 !!!!!!!!!!
More than half our value for a fraction of our market share!!

Our Market Cap today stands at £ 596.79 m
Yet we had proven H1 revenues of 72.4m and 45m Profit
And broker forecasted Revenues of 287m to 305m and forecast profit of 200m
Our PE Ratio which we don't have works out at about x 3
So lets reward that stock and keep us held back.....
Someone tell me what i'm not getting...... because it drives me fcking crazy seeing our share price piddle about, probably be down tomorrow as we went up 10p today, why.....

I will stop moaning and take another tablet, I will phone the other Porky to come and take over :)

GLA - i totally share everyone's frustration

Just done the calculation.
Acquisition of Novacyt at £2 bn would increase Themo Fisher's Market Cap by £ 7.2 bn
They could do the deal in equity or petty cash, they wouldn't even notice it.
And that's if our EBITDA after results are published is £ 200m
It is going to get interesting - watch this space

You are so right SteveV
I actually meant them acquiring us but my post came out wrong lol.
Thermo Fisher are enormous as you say...
£ 30 would be a a result for them. It would add multiples of that to their market cap - PE Ratio X 37 !!!!!

In any other industry sector with similar volumes of players you would expect to see consolidation.
Diagnostics is no different. Take out the competition.

Competitor Revenues:

Qiagen: $1.5 billion
Abbott: $7.5 billion
Johnson and Johnson – $5 billion
ThermoFisher – $3.7 billion
BioRad – $1.1 billion
Roche – $13 billion

And lets not forget the big pharma players like AZ that would benefit from a diagnostics division and GSK that would also benefit.

So that's 8 already and that's before you consider big Private Equity groups that might also be circling.

IMO its going to really hot up after results. Some retail will sell after a short spike. The wise will retain for at least another year or more.

After H1 2021 is out the SP will get even stronger and keep climbing imo, that's if a take out hasn't been completed and we get the chance to see it.

Time will tell... My two year SP target on this is £ 100 unless we get taken out beforehand - call me anything you like, i don't care!!!!

GLA

Thermo Fisher Market Cap 204.26B !!!

Taking Novacyt out would be like a petty cash transaction...

Sooner our results are out and our market cap re-rated the better

No, more likely try and acquire them!

This is the problem especially with the share price so depressed. sooner we are trading in the £16 - £20 range the better

Well we were playing Miss Marple last week with spot the "Thermo Fisher " packaging boxes in the lab, so maybe wild guess that white label partner is Thermo Fisher. Their own tech has current issues with the tests for new Variants and they are concluding a partnership deal to resell using Novacyt's tech components - pure speculation but that would be one hell of a partnership....

Thermo obviously have the capability to develop their own but just maybe its a time factor, to redevelop submit to FDA etc etc could take another year or so even with fast track. Very Interesting.

So Issued last Wednesday stateside, didn't warrant an RNS as its an adjustment. However, there are always reasons behind going to the trouble of seeking this wording extension from the FDA

So probably conclude as it was amended to include "other certified laboratories" they most likely have a deal pending probably stateside to enable either a major partner to build/ supply under white label or a major contractor to build / supply on their behalf.

Either way this is actually more significant than we think.....

We can only hope they contain that in Japan, VERY concerning and all the more reason for us to now insist on negative PCR test before you arrive in the U.K.

@Kaeren
So sorry to read about your situation with your mum, it’s becoming all to familiar, such a worry, she will get through this, Im sure she will be ok.
Take care

Just trying to join dots….

What we do know is that early December the Government was talking all about lets get visitors in to Care Homes to see loved ones at Christmas blah blah blah

Next they tried to push the RATs out to care homes and thank God the councils had the good sense to reject them knowing full well of the accuracy concerns and the catastrophic outcomes that could result if they didn’t. I’m fairly confident that position hasn’t changed. Which means LFTs in Care Homes is no longer an option?

Meanwhile, we have discussing the situation regarding the care home trials for some weeks on this board.

In the R&D Update 16th Nov it was confirmed that:-

…completed an interim review of the performance of the Company's innovative near-patient testing (NPT) system in an ongoing study testing for COVID-19 in care homes..

….with 98% of the samples using Novacyt's NPT system processed and reported in the same day. The clinical accuracy of Novacyt's NPT system was found to have >99% clinical sensitivity….

….clinical trial is being expanded into additional settings across the UK where the Company's NPT systems are being deployed….

Further they also confirmed that:-

….Novacyt is currently developing a LAMP test for COVID-19….results in under 20 mins…

….designed to be compatible with its q16 and q32 instruments….

Now I don’t know what the practicalities of this are but, if a Q16 can be deployed and operated in a care home setting for NPT and the LAMP test proves to provide a decent level of accuracy, as they can run the two tests on the same machine that’s the Care Home situation resolved???

I can’t see a better way of resolving this issue. I'm betting that we get a further update on Care Homes very shortly and possible contract orders. It looks like the most logical way forward to me.

@ShaunP
You are a brilliant researcher and carried out some truly brilliant research to help us stay one step ahead - thank you
@Kearen
You make some brilliant posts, first class evaluation and I really rate your contributions, again it helps keep us one step ahead of the market - Thank you

Never fall out, there’s a pandemic going on, better to love than fight.

I think because of the lack of official news we are all a bit tetchy, remember me last week lol, I was accused of being two people! It gets to you. Also, Tay isn’t posting and that doesn't help either we need that added positivity.

Anyhow, take care, not long to go now and we will know the position for sure...

GLA

@HarChris
I played around with these numbers for a while thinking of various outcomes. In conclusion I decided my investment in Novacyt an absolute no brainier my reason being that if you turn this on it’s head; you say worse case they delivered 200 machines and the service and nothing else, DHSC said no and adjusted the contract, you would end up with £100m for machines (2/3 of £150m) and £ 66m Services (2/3 of £100m) add that to what they did in the first half of the year and if they sold absolutely nothing else (impossible) the revenue would be £230m. EBITDA £160? Something like that, So based on Friday’s close that’s a PE of about x3 - absolute joke undervaluation and that’s in a dire outcome.

In reality, we know they have had solid orders elsewhere, they likely completed the DHSC at 300 units contract and likely secured other large contracts. One we know of for sure £20m

Just wait for this to unfold, not long to wait, im so confident now and the market so massive that I no longer care if the DHSC comes our way or not, it’s a bonus if it does

@Shaun

Well that's proper cheered me up that has especially being a Porky :)

Appreciate the statement doesn't help but all this discussion on 60 days is wasted energy.

It's not a case of not hearing anything because they are in a closed period. It's more to do with the fact that they have nothing to say..

I am however hopeful that we may get some news of some description next week, but as for the Results and trading update that we are all waiting for, this will come out at the end of the month. Possible 19th if early, but more likely 28th imo.

GLA - we are all keen to know the progress

In which case they could update us on Monday if the data is available.

Of course that’s not likely but you can but hope. I do however feel that something else may be issued next week, just a hunch :)

Bramley1967
Don't worry about any short term movement. I know what its like, you know what my mood was like this last two weeks??, no news is a nightmare its the same for all of us.
But its about to change. I strapped on a pair last week and pushed the envelope for another £20ks worth at £8.49 odd.
It will come good.....
These RATs are not the answer, you know it, i know it and so does the rest of the world.
Keep the faith...
Take care