Member Info for Porky9

Just need to cross that 11 on the Bourse and away we go, breaking out.. pre results

We remain materially undervalued and the market is catching on... at last

Markets a funny thing, bit of excitement on vaccine roll out etc, you have MAB (pub chain) up 3% and Rolls Royce up 2% yet in reality we face extended lockdown, even tougher rules and no sign of pubs even trading anytime soon.

Still loads of undecided Bramley waiting on the sidelines for actual results to be proven rather than wild speculation
Not to mention trader that will buy into rising stocks
Not to mention the charting lot.....

Sinovac vaccine proven to be 50.4% effective authorised for use.
Being rolled out in Brazil
It had to break 50% to secure the FDA approval hence just scraped through
Looks fairly low to me in relation to the other vaccines

Still a long, long, long way to go on the Share Price but good to see some upward movement. Long may that continue.!!

Not long now until results, could be as early as Tuesday next week or the week after.

Price Target £ 100

GLA

I watch with eager anticipation exactly what Novacyt can deliver in respect of an LFT, based on all other market efforts to date it does not look like its possible to get the accuracy up to a high enough standard for mass use but lets see.
The Loop method or LAMP test on the other hand, now that could well be the game changer. A highly accurate rapid test of a different kind that compliments the Q machine series. Now that sounds like a win win to me, again if they can get it right and the accuracy levels high enough.
Exciting times

Oh honestly the link was rubbish, try again:-
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09705888/filing-history

If DNA Nudge is the only other main player competing for the DHSC contracts then surely it’s a not obvious acquisition target?
Accounts show it lost £8.5 m last year and £5.5m the previous year and it currently has a loan of £2.2m
If there are assets and contracts worth having Novacyt should absorb and write the losses off against future profits? Just a thought.
Accounts:
https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/AJLa574UsMrVMY3HvpJ6Cb-zva_2kqbtcgQLLzA5rWg/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3GLULLGUV%2F20210113%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20210113T215248Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEBQaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJHMEUCIQDGuRZ9y7vVTk0QBrWKMGwRJkQqfmzUq%2BWXIlGaBa2KeQIgcY0ZCdZ3Qew%2FQrBUVPgSlx1FPVYQezyMK%2FsH9RAQ1psqvQMI3f%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FARADGgw0NDkyMjkwMzI4MjIiDEij7QRd0UJzNPNPbyqRA7znSQ1e%2Bv86SlP3ovsZlMw%2Fd7UxzoTnPOrnfBNLHjNXOeovjHLRgxw1ivNj1YA%2BP0aqVzpUyY3VVadaxZnOaDEmt20N0irZr8Sp6dzBc3h7nVtBxmiL8xIwUtyfFK4XWaScPX3zVi%2BeVzH2ip9D6Mpyh7yGqYa%2FQ5BuWppcC%2Fi0tbRACMsIEAETEKhDgw%2Ba7rizlWjjKXMneOXvbh2fiTdvM4pfdml2MyS08PJ3nGJy0%2BsdwUsED2vm07O7kNdaBh%2FtAQ3iZfDsjAaplofXzm72RpuqIdunBphpLV8N%2Bj1td9f5DsiT85HvHaRZetgir2mlm%2BAZKKYIEChO0%2B0ZbHf3F4M4YGIcIYb9YhEQ6qx9dRok1nTXh2wwE07PmmTqeT4OTKAk8JBt3YK%2Bk1Npk6A3bmRcSRnLjSbQbMyrlvcJJAIan7pWG558RqRpGi28v18BoqBW3jnYr6AfauDO%2FsylvmfzzV7%2B4RGvQ0aXiCe0c%2BL7wgFvtvstb13GxT%2BgVwAHVLN43qBhIz0M%2FIxXGdLVML6b%2Ff8FOusBcCo2wMWJmWHl0XdftYTPuJNomj4QjYKqrKXNbM7wL4aOKmYPGZR2%2Bcvvd9qpjqgGKOJkEbHIoriMwOBvPdioI9DFy3675UZ7aWGT1y%2BM%2Fh1fK%2BnPy%2BvIvatUNWIhmfRa1IMjpWjWe3MF5ewX6CIN16MHav81%2BvtcKQXx9SVON%2F4odpkS9IBWXKMhy%2BISaPTjwlNXqFZyL3Iv32LT9cHYrpQk23eV%2Brsxji9CA94HfPgwNHjMMLIpvl%2FjBK4QFom86JL%2Fw2AYNYEDegpqBexeWKAn3l6kvWkyCmxleDku45U5N2l7g1ozmVXPdw%3D%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=13556b31f21cbbb618ab68a40ff0eb9e021b57de813b840283fd3abee8dae36d

Yes, I guess that's the big advantage they have now, with that ever increasing network size as soon as they release a new product and it gets approval, its then immediately pushed out and available all over the world.

Likewise, acquire a company with a proven product and bingo, straight out to the network.

The capacity, technical advances and reach of this business are truly remarkable ... i'm totally on the same page as you on this.

@Wilson63
Quality find yet again, I see you had your twitters waders on earlier....

I have to say i find it hard to fully get my head around this, not scientifically minded enough, but it looks bloody impressive:-
https://www.primerdesign.co.uk/assets/files/genorm_sybrgreen_handbook.pdf?timestamp=1610544864

So its testing for abnormalities of cells in the placenta. They were running scientific study with it yesterday in the Netherlands:-
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-00759-x

Not sure what tests are available within maternity units or indeed how invasive current tests are to the patient, but it kind of feels like advanced testing technology for use in this field.

I think the key point here is diversity, I initially though that diversity would most likely arrive via acquisition but this is something home grown that is being built out.

I have no research regarding how big this area of diagnostics is or indeed who controls what market share but its an added bonus and looks like a further potential future revenue stream to me.

They really are ahead of the curve - just brilliant.

GLA

Looks like a test will be required that can accurately pick up the different variants now:-
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/uk-covid-strain-now-in-50-countries-south-african-variant-in-20-who-2351975
I wonder who would have such an accurate test?
Obviously renders the RAT test completely useless now..

Oh Gawd, keep your best china locked away, especially any cups with dainty handles, you know what happened the last time :)
I have said before there is only one chartist view you need to take notice of, its 100% accurate and its here :-
https://twitter.com/Kat_Hassard/status/1348684814795341825

Have fun....

For the newbies just joined;

Ignore the movements of Tracker Funds, they are automated, they move in and out of stocks all the time, come tomorrow if not today another fund will be buying. It really isn't an issue, this is yesterdays news already!!!.

As for retail selling today after that RNS well great, that's less that will bail on a short term trading profits on results day!! This is one of the best stocks in the market to hold for exponential growth lets not forget that.

Lets remember that in addition to the results and trading statement due out shortly we still have yet to come:-

Microgen Tender Award for ‘Pathology and Point of Care’ £20 Billion Tender Award share
PrimerDesign Centralised Lab Contract Renewal
Phase II DHSC Unlock - Would be a step change in the SP if it comes our way.
DHSC Contract for Community Settings
PrimerDesign £22 Billion Testing ‘Framework’ Tender Award share
Private Testing Deal announcement – Travel and other settings
Antibody LFT and LAMP launch alongside Private/Public Deal. Possibly mobile LAMP too.
New Device from IT-IS.
VersaLab™ partnerships and PROmate™ PHE news re: non-lab settings.
Another Acquisition
Major Partner deals / white label deals
Unknown surprise reveals – International Tenders/Sales Updates/TR1’s etc

So much going on... it is going to get interesting very shortly

Take Care

@nordell
Its a bid sad really, I'm not sure either, some of it is plain boasting or BS, if you invest in different stocks you will likely have winners and losers ,so you are looking at your portfolio over time;
It's a bit like playing how high you can P@ss up a wall
Or i think mines bigger than yours....
Not interested myself, only interested in where the share price is going from here today
My short term target is £ 44 and my long term target £ 100 - couldn't care less if anyone agrees or not.

@Sodor
You are right, I hold my hands up, I'm not an accountant, leave accounting to Shaun. My calculations are at best crude and not to be used by others to make investment decisions - they can make their own call/ do own research.
However, this is a chat room at the end of the day, not an FCA regulated investment document, you can filter me if you like, i just say it as i believe it, its the direction of travel of the share price I'm more interested in.
I have a vested interested in the share price doing well as i own shares and on down days and days without news, I have posted during "the night shift" to try and balance to maintain positivity here.
I have also activity worked to rid the board of shorter's and other posters coming here with alternative motives.
My scientific analysis here at times is on par with Kat Hassard's chartist drawing's but we end up at the same conclusion:-
https://twitter.com/Kat_Hassard/status/1348684814795341825
Take care now
Porks

"Hey there Mr. Blue
We're so pleased to be with you
Look around see what you do
Everybody smiles at you"

A fellow Novacytian pointed out here last week that Stockopedia ranked us as a Top 20 Share Tip. Not sure its worth much but all positive coverage is good coverage as they say :)

However what is interesting is they stated that the Bull and Bear points were:-

Bull points:
Transformational trading
Improved financial position, with cash pile and no debt
Growing institutional backing (refer to increasing Black Rock position)

Bear points:
Fast-moving and unpredictable
industry conditions could work against it
Uncertainty of future profits
Acquisition risk - if deals don't work out
Share price has been volatile

But this is the interesting bit on the Key statistics. They are quoting:-
12m Forecast Rolling PE Ratio: 16.5x
12m Forecast Rolling Div Yield: N/A%
Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
12m Relative Strength: 7,294%

Another poster mentioned that they had also seen a PE of 16.5 X used elsewhere. This is similar to forward estimates on other smaller cap diagnostics stocks such as EFK etc so sounds fair?

In which case, you could argue they are going off the H1 results as the benchmark which gave us an EBITDA of 45m Euros and they are using this as the forward earnings. Euro 45m is about 40m Sterling so on a PE X 16.5 that is a market cap of £660m ( we closed tonight at 627m so fairly close).

So, and here's the good news :-

IF, results come in as forecast Revenues at 287m and 210m EBITDA that would be about £188m sterling and with forecast of same and using that same valuation method it would push us to £ 3.1 BN or the Blue Sky £ 44 share price.
If results exceed these estimates, also possible, then it could get very exciting....

Oh and i want to add one final thought here before anyone thinks I'm off my rocker; after todays peers reporting revenues for 22 likely to be as strong, if not stronger than 21 this really gives confidence now that forward earning will remain strong, as such i genuinely believe the 16.5 PE Ratio is the lower end of what it could be.

The figures and trading statement about to be released will make or break the current SP
GLA

@HillSeeker
Totally agree however, like i posted the other day, the thing is that even if only 200 machines went out in completion and nothing else ordered, anywhere else, it still put us at about 230m on the full year. We already know of several decent wins since, so for me the DHSC orders are just the cherry on the cake.
If they daft enough not to roll out the second phase with us , the demand is so high now that our worldwide sales will likely dwarf it anyway.
I'm more convinced than ever that results will exceed both SP Angel and Numis estimates and if they are as high as Shaun's estimate at 499m, its cause for celebration!!

Obviously, at close tonight we are right on the cusp of that 10 euro for a significant break out.

It could be wishful thinking, but it really feels like despite no news out of Novacyt all the elements are lining up in our favour: -

• The further pressure is piling on government regarding RATs, we have been calling for this for months but with infection rates so high in the UK it looks like the penny is finally dropping in favour of the Gold Standard.

• The news out from Roche confirming that testing in 2022 is likely to be as strong if not stronger than 2021 really gives us that longevity boost, we need, without anything else being said.

• Football clubs, film studios, Airlines, big industry, travel all going with the gold standard and turning their back on the LFTs. The public are also getting it and the press relentless in looking to blame government for pushing out ineffective tests not to mention the BMJ.

• Geneme, looks like early evidence of another example of white label partner using our products. Expect many more. We already have a giant list!

• The significant increasing market cap of our peers whilst we languish at this level is just building like a pressure cooker building up ready to blow. It is a matter of time until we are noticed and rated properly.

• Investor sentiment returning as it is getting out that results are due out soon and they could be impressive.

And this is without any news whatsoever dropping and I will not remind again of all the outstanding aspects we are still awaiting updates on that could add further material value. What a difference a day makes :)

It will start to get interesting here soon.

GLA

@mburns70
I'm no expert in vaccines so you can take this with a pinch of salt however;

My take on it, from everything i have researched so far to date strongly points to Covid being here now permanently, just like the flu virus. We won't know for at least a year how effective the vaccine is over time . The best we can hope for is that it will likely be an annual vaccine requirement. Lets hope so.

Worse case, it will only be effective for less than a year (six months was one estimate) and even worse the vaccine could prove ineffective to some of the new variants, such as the one coming out of Japan at the moment - very concerning.

Not sure when i will get my vaccine but sooner the better for me, it can only help :)

@GDWK
Hey, i think the pressure gets to all of us, especially magnified being in this lock down. As i said yesterday i was two people myself last week :)
Onwards and upwards from here for all of us i think....