Member Info for Porky9

As I'm now convinced (could be totally wrong) this is information is going to be be of significant interest shortly, for obvious reasons :)
This is the link i posted Friday to the evaluation:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rapid-evaluation-of-optigene-rt-lamp-assay-direct-and-rna-formats/rapid-evaluation-of-optigene-rt-lamp-assay-direct-and-rna-formats
Key Points:-
OptiGene RT-LAMP assay was assessed on saliva and swab samples:
- On nasopharyngeal swabs, with RNA extraction, had a sensitivity of 95% (CI 0.91-0.97) and specificity of 99%.
- on saliva, without RNA extraction, had a sensitivity of 79% (CI 0.73-0.84) and specificity of 100%
This is very encouraging frankly, as good as its gets maybe? and certainly significantly light years ahead and better than the LFT, there is VERY little choice out there.
If Novacyt were to acquire this its ready to go, they have the network to rocket sales. Alternatively, their own LAMP test out shortly to complement the Q machine would be a welcome addition and give us that sub 20 mins test result outcome, with high levels of accuracy that we are so so desperate to see.

Meanwhile the BMJ looked at all the Rapid Test Options available now:-
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3868
Not really rapid?:-
- DNA nudge is the PCR in competition with ours as already known - not considered a threat
- LamPORE tests developed by Oxford Nanopore - 90min but really 6.5 hrs- go figure?
- SD Biosensor and the US company Abbott both with LFTs which again proven not fit for purpose for mass testing.
So there you have it...

The LAMP test will possibly be the vehicle replacing the LFT to give that rapid result but at a significantly higher level. Question will be if if the tests can be pushed out in volume, are easy to carry out and can be manufactured cheap enough to be viable if used in volume.
Very interesting all the same

@inthepub
You do what's best for you and your family. I would never critise someone else's investment decision. What is good is that you have a position here, good luck to you. Take Care
@earth7000
Maldives sounds like a plan :) although many won't go the distance they will bail along the way but there may be some of us left by then. Time will tell

Get the first leg of the share price uplift out the way first, as i keep saying, this hasn't even started getting interesting yet, this is the warm up phase!! LOL

@Airlineboy
That's just horrendous to see. We need to get proper control, we are six times the level of France in a similar population size;-
1. Bolster lock down control
2. PCR Testing and Improvements to Track and Trace with PCR Only - No LFTs for this use. Possibly consider travel passport that shows your valid PCR test result and Vaccine Confirmation
3. Vaccine roll out to continue.
4. Care homes - patients, visitors and staff regular PCR testing only
5. Schools - mass PCR testing with online learning for older age groups until control regained.

@SteveV
Oh yeah, another converter to the £100+ target club... that's two members now :)
Take care.

@Sharehunter
Really delighted you are back, you can't put this stock down LOL. Anyhow you can shout RNS due as we are now in the season for it!!. It's always harder to maintain stock confidence when the price is falling, i have been here some days and its been as miserable as hell, then all the shorter's and doom merchants show up to add to your woes. Once teh SP goes up everyone's in a happy place and the shorter's are no where to be seen !!! All part of the fun. Anyhow, I value your positivity.

Afternoon,

We just can't ignore the fact that we still effectively trade on a cash valuation.

At £10 we have a market cap of a mere £738m and that is going to look mighty ridiculous once results are known especially if they turn in anything north of 300m revenue.

And if results come in anything close to Shaun's £499m estimate we can kiss goodbye to £ 25 a share frankly. Then you have acquisition news, product news, major contract news, estimates for 2021 of over 600m will suddenly look achievable if not increased, market will recognise the companies true potential as a diagnostics group that is being established and here to stay and it will get awarded a proper PE ratio in relation to its proven growth.

I stand by my £ 100+ longer term target and the way things are going could well be here sooner than we think.

Some here will say, heck Pork's is chatting ****e , keyboard warrior that knows f'ck all and heck they might be right WTFDIK but what i would say is:-
I have been around a while, in and out this market for over 30 years now and I can only name a small handful of companies in that time that had the true exponential I have seen in this businesses. There are companies with a worse outlook attracting better valuations.

This business could shortly be the number one revenue producing stock on the AIM and i genuinely see that as a possibility, its going to be a reality i'm telling you, that i'm absolutely confident of

Finally, my advice to any younger investors here; take some profits if you need to as the SP increases, top slice if you must but don't exit this stock completely until we pass at least £100. I made that fatal mistake a good number of years ago with ASOS having held since 5p and i regret it to this day. Other investors were saying sell, its already at a silly price, it has no further upside blah blah especially once they had sold!!

I don't regret losses and bad stock picks in my time so far, you have to crack eggs to make omelette's, its part of investing, I don't regret exiting ARB recently in mid flight (well annoyed LOL) without seeing it's true level but that was a "punt" not an investment. My hard earned cash in Novacyt is a true investment, i have researched it and confident. You are seeing history in the making here, a once in a lifetime opportunity imo.

GLA, the fun hasn't even started yet

PS. Oh and don't forget the MMs will play games to get your shares, create panic and other such tricks, don't fall for it, think long term unless you are day trading. Its £ 100+ don't lose sight of that....

FYI
I am not selling one share in NCYT for a fact! My ongoing research and expectations only endorse my belief that this is one of the biggest exponential growth stories of the century. Long term price target £100
As for Syn, yes I am buying some more however I see it as a speculative gamble, it has a very high market cap for a business that is still loss making and yet to produce any revenue. It’s also six months off at best any approval so it comes with significant risk.
They are two very different businesses

Thanks for the replies, all appreciated.

@Random_Act67
FYI. I did review all the links you gave me on the 9th, and it was because of that that I took my initial punt £10k at 154. Appreciate your time afforded. I follow and research.

@Radium1
Appreciate your detailed reply earlier, made a lot of sense – Thanks for that.

@HarChris
I appreciate you know that I do not waste time, I am either in or out. I value your candid take on the outlook and the bottom line is that I am adding as a result – thanks again.

There are no free lunches in this world, and this is not without risk. I think the comparison that pro-investors make with Bamlanivimab is perfectly accurate.

So, we are looking at May 21 for completion of Phase 3 and probably another month for approval based on an Emergency FDA approval. Under normal circumstances a Phase 3 trial would take a couple of years to secure this. Over period we could see approval from multiple locations.

From my perspective, I am hoping that on approval it will attract interest from one of the big pharma’s and it will be taken out. I do not relish the thought of sitting on this VERY long term to see if they can a) continually deliver 100,000 a month, b) get manufacturing and distribution right and maintain a margin of 67% which is what pro-investors think c) deliver 600m a year bottom line on a PE x6. I cannot find any evidence to support that they could scale that well and I also think pricing would come down further than the estimates – so these are the risks for me.

However, it is a calculated gamble, upside £10 v downside 35p so worth a try. What I would say, and I will be totally honest, if the SP doubles, I will sell half so that I am in for free to de-risk it but on balance I think chance of success higher than failure, hence why i'm adding. Anyhow That is my take on ot for what its wroth
good luck all.

@Wilson63
You raise a great point. I just don't know.
EXMEX pointed out the subtle trade mark differences so could be a red herring. gggg21 was kind of implying its a German acquisition????
They are clearly more informed than i am however;
My gut feeling is that Optigene Diagnostics has something to do with this?. They are in Horsham, they have an establish LAMP test and a bit of a network plus some government contracts. Their product is approved but looks like they struggle to manufacture and distribute volume? Could be making this entirely 2 + 2 = 22 but just looks like a cracking good fit to me and both sides would benefit?
If they roll out own LAMP test for the Q machine as indicated that would be a brilliant addition I agree but, it would still take time to be regulated? and only benefits customers using the Q machine and the experience to operate it.
An addition like the Optigene LAMP test is ready to go and could be pushed out via the Novacyt network almost immediately.
Guess we will know more next week,

@hanoihank
That's probably what i need to do this weekend
@CityTTrader
2 bn - noted

LMOL, ohh if only.
I have been around a bit i'm 52 im afraid...
I'm in NCYT in a big way and some investors over there are hedging with this stock hence why i not ignoring it, just don't have the knowledge you guys have to make a more informed decision other than just taking a "punt"

Hi all,

Bit cheeky but I'm looking for more information from those here better informed:-

I am posting this question after close as I do not want to be seen as de-ramping, I have taken a “Punt” on this stock at 154p and will likely add over the coming months to price average, so I have a small exposure.

However, now I just do not know enough about Synairgen to warrant making this a major portfolio investment and my reason is all down to the share price and my potential ROI.

You see the business, the product, what they are doing, the game changing technology, the board its all-tick tick, tick for me, no issues However, I just feel that If you were in at the initial placement rate at 35p well done indeed, what a result, you can be far more relaxed than I would be if I made a meaningful investment at this level.

On the fundamentals it has not done a bean of revenue, yet it has an eye watering market cap of £321m. It is still in R&D phase albeit nearing the end of phase 3. The phase three is going to take some weeks and even with fast-track FDA I am guessing May? before it gets the green light providing everything is proven in the trial meanwhile its still burning cash.

Now let us assume its all go go go. A recent report I read gave the treatment cost of £ 2,000 yet this sounds high compared to an inhaler cost and other treatments?

If it took supply on itself, it does not have the network or the manufacturing capacity to get the volume to make it as I see it unless I am missing something? This is a whole new phase, so for me its more likely that on approval it would be sold to the highest bidder.

So, in this case, what is it worth in relation to a market where the vaccine should significantly reduce cases over time? I do not know but 500-700m sounds likely? 1bn might be pushing it? So, I am sitting here thinking, if I invest say £ 50k my upside from the current SP is possible double possibly a bit more but if things do not work out, I could lose the lot, it could tank to 35p? if it works out and they do not sell and decide to go it alone with manufacture and supply it could take me years to see the upside??

Views anyone?

A) what makes you certain the business is worth a greater market cap?

b) If they go it alone, seriously what sort of volume is likely and what capacity have they got. What experience in manufacturing Scale do they have.?

c) if it were sold what could a buy out look like?

Meanwhile, I am watching this from the side-lines if the SP did anything daft like fall back to 60 or 70p over the next few months I would probably fill my boots, maybe I am being over cautious?.

Thanks in advance

Take care all.

@EXMEX
Not sure how two firms can trademark the exact same word for a product used for the exact same purpose hence some kind of arrangement must have been agreed /ongoing for a while now.
Lets hope Monday morning that RNS drops to clarify.

@hamsters18
totally agree, when i originally started researching it was in my "bottom feeder" list, its now turning out to be possibly the biggest exponential growth story of this century.
Amazing

Optigene - evaluation of rapid LAMP test
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rapid-evaluation-of-optigene-rt-lamp-assay-direct-and-rna-formats/rapid-evaluation-of-optigene-rt-lamp-assay-direct-and-rna-formats

The two business involved in the trials using the LAMP test were:-
Optigene Limited in Horsham
http://www.optigene.co.uk/
And the German Diagnostics company
Amplex Diagnostics, Gars-Bahnhof, Germany
https://www.eazyplex.com/

Novacyt are in a position to acquire both if they add value. I would say that Optigene would be a great fit as it already had the LAMP test fully approved hence could be immediately rolled out to the Novacyt network

In-coming acquisition news does sound highly likely based on what's been discovered this afternoon

Credit to gggg21

@gggg21
OK - fair play to you
If its acquisition related then it is something.....
Take care

@gggg21
You don't need to respond.
I see its just a trade mark for VariPlex
So clearly going to be yet another to add to the product stable. great.
Not a bad guess from me earlier considering i had'nt spotted the trade mark :-
....."could relate to variant interpretation in research and diagnostics a another diagnostics add on to accurately pickup multi variants and fully identify" but just plain guess work

@gggg21
well its either in the public domain or it isn't. if you are saying you have possibly picked something up are you able to confirm if its acquisition related or if its just yet another product to add to the 550 they already have? Can you give us that much?

@Bing007
Highly likely, on a more serious note could relate to variant interpretation in research and diagnostics a another diagnostics add on to accurately pickup multi variants and fully identify, but just plain guess work.
Personally, if someone has something to say they should say it and not Fck about. If its something confidential or under an NDA then just plain shut up.

or it could stand for
Vot A Rudddy Idiot...