Member Info for Porky9

A couple of reports out, one in the FT which I hope the link works on, where a couple of scientists have said that the LFTs are good as they pick up people with a high infectious load that would be otherwise missed.
https://www.ft.com/content/3df40205-2712-4fab-b0f6-edcc9598ffcc
Not much to say really, i can only assume nobody was drinking diet coke that day...

Anyhow they report that the UK is to ramp up production of own tests and is looking for UK companies to manufacture and supply rather than buy from abroad with a 2 million a day target.
A firm called PA Consulting is trying to find UK manufactures that could produce the tests.
The most interesting line from the report
“We will be setting out further details of companies that will be developing lateral flow tests in the coming weeks,”

If Novacyt can launch a quick test that is more accurate than the Innova test they might be able to support this in some form but the government are clearly not giving up.
Meanwhile the rest of the world including the FDA are having none of it.....

@Poidster
There is not one person on this forum that doesn't share your pain, its a God dam awful situation we are all in and we all deeply feel for you. The situation is that we all know someone that has died from Covid or suffering from long term effects we all want this nightmare to be over but its ongoing. The loss of your friend is awful beyond words.

I have been posting here during lock down and before as a distraction, so have many others. If you follow this forum you will quickly realise that many here even work in the NHS or care sectors and see the devastation first hand. Shaun who is our top researcher on this board both his wife and daughters work in the NHS so we are fully aware. We all care about this. The regulars to this board do care, you will always find the odd idiot in life but balance of this board is in favour of us getting covid under control asap and quality testing will help the spread of this virus.

Regarding Novacyt we support this company because it's trying to make a difference. Its innovating new tests, world class tests, tests so dam good that had our government only used them and not LFTs, coupled with control its possible the UK infection rate would be significantly less. Anyhow we are where we are.

None of this will bring your friend back, but hopefully together we can all work together to beat this. Thank you for sharing your most difficult situation. You take care now

Porks

Guys, as it stands phase 2 DHSC in my opinion is a nice to have, the cherry on the cake, a bloody big cherry as I have said before but its not an essential win. We have the entire world market to go at.....

I have nothing to back this up other than gut feeling but i suspect the phase one may have taken the entire six month contract period to roll out ?. Why, well I think this is possible because of the news out that 200 units were installed and what we knew at the time about staff training and teething issues. This was later rectified with the roll out of ProMate but did take some time.

The situation now is that we have an incredible solution in the NHS, best of breed delivering ease of use and massively reduced times. So it now feels like as a result phase 2 is now, ever more likely. A no brainer??

So where do we stand on the contract reporting? well the company stated that the phase one would result in 300 units within 6 months and that phase 2 if triggered could be up to another 700 units. I believe they delivered on phase 1. If they didn't well as long as revenues were not going to fall under estimates then no update would be required. it wouldn't have a material impact on their finances.

Now if phase 2 was awarded that would warrant an RNS news update as it would have a material impact on forecasted revenues.

So as i see it, worse case scenario; we were slow to roll out but completed 300 units and during 2021 will support those units and no others, completing £406m revenue and best case scenario; ProMate has radically improved testing and DHSC are going to proceed with continued roll out of the remaining 700 units and £1 bn of revenue over the next two years guaranteed.

Time will tell

Evening all, or should I say morning…. Pork’s here posting with the night shift LOL…
So, what did we learn today so far on this no news day…?

1. Trading update with Results due at any moment. Most likely Monday or Tuesday next week. Is it FOMO Friday? Last chance to get in now pre results.

2. Biosynex in France released results after close and we discover a whopping 775% growth in the last quarter endorsing the ever-increasing demand for tests. This is on the back of reports earlier in the week from the majors confirming strength for orders will go well into 2022 and beyond and Proactive Investors report the same.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/939174/diagnostics-sector-set-to-continue-to-see-growth-in-2021-and-2022-says-broker-finncap-939174.html
Bodes well for us as it strengthens our future earnings potential.

3. An excessively high volume of orders were reported late today after close. Both UK and France. Over £ 1 million of buys. Was this simply high net worth individuals buying or funds filling up? Eitherway was the SP kept in the tight trading range to facilitate filling these orders at £11.Who knows but I see it as a positive.

4. Tay has written an update on ProMate which confirms that not only does it radically simplify processes, but it reduces time to less than 80 mins outside the lab. Gold standard testing can be arranged anywhere now, de-centralised testing at its best: -
https://novacytinsider.com/promate-revealed/
Further Tay details about Verslab and the increasing number of mobile labs being rolled out.

5. Emmanuel Macron has announced today that anyone arriving in France from Sunday must have a negative PCR test. The only exemptions will be border workers and land transportation:
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/covid-19-un-test-pcr-sera-obligatoire-pour-tout-voyageur-europeen-arrivant-en-france-a-compter-de-dimanche-minuit_4267437.html#xtor=CS2-765-[autres]-
Use translate French to English - Several countries have been following suit.

6. The ever-increasing requirement for staff continues. Some jobs possibly at a new location in Whitechapel? Could this be a new site that we are not yet aware of? Interesting times
Meanwhile, we all wait with excited anticipation over what could be a new anti body test about to being launched to support the vaccine roll out, not to mention a new LAMP test. Filming ongoing.

7. Biden now in office and signing off big investments into getting Covid under control. 50 Billion USD we understand into testing…

All this on a no news day…….

And the fun hasn't even started yet...

Wouldn't be surprised if they are filling a massive order at £11 and the MMs have been manipulating the price as much as they can to get stock in under 11
Everyone knows this stock is materially undervalued, it's a no brainer....

@Sharedealer2019
Well that would make perfect sense. I never liked the idea of Novacyt producing a general LFT, i couldn't see the point unless they can get accuracy levels up and i only ever thought of it as as added extra small sales line as the market has turned completely against the LFT.
However, an LFT to test for antibody levels, not that is something very different and a VERY nice product line. A total game changer. I can see that selling well for sure if they can create something special.
The issue will be a) how long before the product is released and b) How long before it can get get approval.
ODX have their test ready now? is that why their SP has increased today?
The big positive we have though is that the moment our test is ready we can push it straight out into the distribution network so worldwide sales would pick up pace very quickly.
Interesting

we are due some acquisition news for sure, not a bad call that :)

my best guess is a new antibody test that could be rolled out alongside the vaccine?? or to see how well protected you are in general??

@Kaeren
Could you tell what the value was exactly? i couldn't quite tell from the website as i don't speak the language but it does look like something supporting Gensig. ???

Interesting the number of deals that other businesses would class as material and want to shout about yet here, unless its over a fair few million value, its not even considered material. Just shows you the level this business is dealing at

GLA

Interesting find

We only have 70m shares in issue with the bulk clearly controlled by retail, ii only holding about 5% of the company and not sure what the total ownership by directors and associates equates to.

I expect this will change after results, once the position is clarified I can see ii taking chunks out of this, time will tell.

More than happy to see a -50p close today frankly, the more retail we can shake out now at this level, the less that will bail on us during the journey to £ 54....

Happy days....

Revised broker forecasts on forward earnings are what is required

Short term £ 54
Long term £ 100

A positive Trading update with good results confirming longevity of forward revenues also remaining strong we will us start to re-rate

2020 Revenue 300m / Profit 200m
2021 Revenue 1.2bn / Profit 900m

And that’s without any game changing major contract wins

SP by Jan 22 £100+ if not earlier should any major contracts land

I stand by my long term SP target and it looks like the £100 SP club is expanding its members

LOL Typo 120 countries
Take Care

@Kaeran @whatnonewsyet
Totally agree with you both, hopefully the larger Care Homes in the private sector can start to take matters into own hands and install the Q machines. What's interesting is that in some countries its all about private sector orders.

If you take Japan for example the private test centers are saturated with "gold standard" testing business;
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/27/national/science-health/japans-private-covid-19-pcr-test-centers-reservations/

I was looking at the H1 report and the sales were split, very roughly:-
Africa 3%
Europe 80%
Asia-Pacific 4%
USA 7%
Middle East 6%

Obviously we are now supplying to 720 countries with much to go at. The network has expanded rapidly so the country split probably won't look anything like H1, demand is global and growing but countries like Japan represent golden opportunities for increased sales. But its the same i guess for USA, Germany, many others, in fact the more i think about it the more I realise the product demand is just off the scale.....

Perhaps one acquisition needs to be some other diagnostics business that has reach or network established stronger in some of Novacyts regions where they are perhaps low in local distributors???

Exciting times...

@Kaeren
Your point regarding ProMate will be the game changer i totally agree.
My previous concerns surrounding operational difficulties of Q machines has been totally removed, its pure genius what they have done to remove the need for cabinets and reduce the work process flow. Not to mention it must be having a material impact on test process times. Speeding up test volume.

Meanwhile, the new LAMP tests I'm also equally excited to hear about especially if the accuracy levels are there, Its a stroke of genius again frankly to have these so that they operate on the Q machine. It further endorses the Q machine as the must have kit to purchase as its just so versatile!!!

Then we have veriPRO.....

it just gets better.... like you I'm feeling really confident about this business

Hi Kaeren,
I absolutely agree with you, its all about forward earnings now and market confidence that they can continue long term revenues and are not just a one trick pony. I believe we will see that.
It was particularly encouraging to see reports from other diagnostics groups referring to revenues 21-24 expected to remain strong, this really bodes well for them.
What I'm specifically looking for in the forthcoming trading update is not just a great set of results in the 2020 year but also confirmation of 2021 forecasts and beyond remaining strong followed shortly after by Revised broker notes from SP Angel and Numis revising revenues upwards would be the cherry on the cake :)
Oh and if we could secure a sizable contract in 2021 even better.....

We have been discussing last week the plans for daily testing in schools being put on hold over worries about accuracy. Today sky news reported further on this:-
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-plans-for-daily-testing-in-schools-put-on-hold-over-worries-about-accuracy-12193452
"Plans for daily tests in schools are being halted amid warnings about the accuracy of lateral flow tests"

The landscape is well and truly set now for a new and more accurate rapid testing to be used in the school setting. The new testing innovations that Novacyt release this quarter could well support this. These being in addition to the "gold standard" PCR tests already available.

Going to be an interesting first quarter

I notice many of you picked up on the Primer Design tweet earlier...

Antibody testing go hand in hand with vaccine roll out, It makes sense having accurate tests to identify the level of antibodies built up in your system and to know accurately how protected you may or may not be against this deadly virus.

The Novacyt blog link:-
https://blog.primerdesign.co.uk/get-vaccine-ready-with-the-novacyt-group/

A test to identify if you have had Covid in the past and if you have any antibodies built up is a terrific thing. This perfectly illustrates why Novacyt continue to remain ahead of the curve.

It just gets better...

Evening, night shift starting LMOL.
Trust we all had a good day today, I see the SP is inching up pre news, mind you, we still a massive long way to go yet.....

For those new to Novacyt don't forget that the business is not just about testing solutions for Covid.

Obviously, a significant focus currently relates to Covid due to the pandemic and they are building a war chest of capital in order to further their aims within the Diagnostics sector but we will shortly see innovations and developments in other areas. Taken from their business description:-

Novacyt SAS engages in the development and sale of cancer and infectious disease diagnostic products. It operates through the Corporate and Diagnostics; and Molecular Products segments. The Corporate and Diagnostics segment includes diagnostic activities in laboratories, and the manufacturing and distribution of reagents and kits for bacterial and blood tests. The Molecular Products segment comprises of design, manufacture, and distribution of test kits for certain diseases in humans, animals and food products.

During the last two weeks I was impressed to read about some of the tests they are working on within maternity and only yesterday a white paper around certain cancer tumor tests, all impressive stuff. We are yet to see an acquisition within another sector of diagnostics but that is certain to happen soon.

You are now watching a top five worldwide diagnostics group being built right before your eyes. As i keep saying it hasnt even started getting interesting yet..

GLA