Member Info for Porky9

Hi,

I am a fan of Biotech's and i can clearly see that shareholders here have had a very rough ride following the multiple share issues and dilution, although a good recent SP rise to the current level may of helped.

I'm doing research but its fairly limited. They don't give that much out by the looks of it which is frustrating. I can see the effects of the phase 1/2 at 54% but no indication of this going to a phase 3?

Anyone got any info on the main drug going to phase 3 trials? or any guestimate of time lines?

Thanks

Oh dear a village somewhere is missing its idiot again...

@whatnonewsyet
Thanks - this is one heck of a business and i'm proud to be a shareholder in. To own a small piece of this company is just something, it really is. They are making such a difference and as i say, its history in the making
Good luck and i will deffo raise a glass at £ 54... its just a matter of time now...
Pork's

I know there will be a thousand alarm clocks going off at 7.00am to see if a trading update is out and maybe today is the day?

They have said that the TU will be here before the month end, well Friday is our last trading day of January, so we have a one in four chance…

Now we know the market makers have been known to play tricks at results time, especially If the report is detailed and mixed and Retail struggle to read into what is happening so take your time. No matter what the SP does remember the headline figures that we are looking for: -

Broker estimates the market is expecting: -
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020_Oct_SP_Angel_Novacyt_Initiation_Note_21.10.2020.pdf

S P Angel
Share Price £ 14.63………Revenue 287.8m……. Pre-Tax Profit 206.9…….2021 Forward Revenues 290.2

Numis Security
Share Price £ 13.65……. Revenue 305.0m……. Pre-Tax Profit 210.0m…….2021 Forward Revenues 380.0m
Their Bull Blue Sky SP of £ 35 is based on forward Revenues for 2021 of 600m.

Anything higher than the above obviously beats broker expectations and anything under the above is going to disappoint.

What we need is a positive outlook statement that revenues will either be like or will exceed the 2020 year. Any suggestion that 2021 could exceed 600m then hold tight as once broker notes are out, the stock must be re-rated. Good luck

Keeping everything crossed.

Porks..

Couldn't agree more Kaeren,

Rushing at it, they were championing the Oxford vaccine before they even had the base stats available and they have no data on waiting 12 weeks for the booster either. Still, looking at the positives, there are two other vaccines that can provide better protection for the over 65s so the issue is not insurmountable but it requires good management and a policy revision and the problem can be sorted. Just going to take that bit longer.

Night Shift Starting.... lol

Come on guys, what is it with this Billboard this afternoon? Some negative nellies this afternoon...

We are shareholders in what is the best business with exponential growth at a level not seen anywhere else possibly in the last twenty years.

A business with 550 different product lines, a network spanning over 120 countries, innovations, and new products to drive further growth and on the cusp of possibly delivering results ahead of broker expectations. What’s not to like?

Further, the share price whilst I accept is dismally low and that is incredibly depressing, at least its starting to finally inch up a little and hopefully once we know what they have delivered the market will have the proof it needs to hopefully re-rate this business shortly to a decent level.

We are witnessing history in the making here, lets get behind them, champion this business, stop looking for problems that are not there.

With everything so positive, any minor challenges can be quickly overcome, they have not let us down so far and I doubt they will disappoint now.

Stick with it and we can raise a glass in a few months time to celebrate passing my £ 54 short term target… smile, things could be a dam sight worse…. We are getting there… stay positive.

Go Novacyt….

Pork's

@T0n1c
Appreciated that detailed reply and i will follow up on the back of the research, thanks indeed.
Bottom line for me is that I'm happy to be holding but it remains a punt. If part of the £912 m contract comes our way we should see good upside from todays close and that's what we are all here for...
Good luck

Anyone here done any actual detailed research as to what the wholesale price of the LFTs that they produce and /or what the margin they are working on might look like?

Just being a lazy pig tbh, trying to work it backwards as to what 2 million capacity a week, call its 50m units a year allowing for slippage might look like in terms of revenue/EBITDA. My calc might be total micky mouse but this is what i have so far, so would appreciate any more informed shareholders to chip in here? thanks in advance:-

From my own limited research, I believe on moonshot government were paying £ 8.69 a unit, obviously more competition so lets say £5 to keep numbers round so 50 million capacity at £ 5 equals £ 250 million Revenue.

Back of fag packet calc, manufacturing/materials/distribution costs at say 70% gives us £ 75m Profit
£ 75m PE X 6 ish = 450m
So we are looking in the region of about £ 2.50 SP max upside??? Thoughts anyone?

I only have a £7k punt here so its not life changing for me, but looks like double the current SP, i.e £ 1.50 short term would be more than achievable maybe, of course the gamble is if they get awarded a slice of that £912m contract or not , ideally 250m of it!!!

Good luck
Porks

@Yogibear
It's an actual calculation based on the expected profits and forward earnings with the market assigning a decent PR ratio in line with its peers.
It will happen but i believe it will be closer to H1 results in July, my longer term target remains at £ 100+
At the moment they need to prove that forward earning will remain solid.
The trading update will help with this, likewise a three year DHSC contract, lol
Take care...

Obviously buying from anywhere that has capacity to supply.....
so that's 75m / 28 suppliers / 3 yrs = Worth £ 900k a year as an average?

All goes in the pot i guess....

In the past, Tuesday has been the most popular day for the trading update but i have a feeling this year it could be Thursday or Friday but it's anyone's guess.

My best guess is that the figures will be great BUT the roll out and initial teething issues of Q machines probably interrupted initial supply hence the PROmate roll out and they will likely report on that and confirm the current position,

Meanwhile DHSC are likely on the cusp of deciding what to do going forwards, so i suspect Novacyt would rather give a full trading update including the forward situation with DHSC rather than half a story and leave us hanging longer.

Any element of doubt will shake out the short term retail then again perhaps not a bad thing?

For me personally, i don't mind if i see a figures update now and a full report in a couple of weeks time on DHSC but then i'm not looking for a quick share price spike to bail, the SP will travel towards £ 54 by July anyhow and onto £ 100 longer term in my opinion but i respect others have different opinions.

GLA

GLA

Mind you Kaeren, I didn’t see it adding much value anyway, we already have five odd vaccines as it is . It’s deployment and take up rates that are the issue now, not to mention how long you are protected for?
We already discovered you can still pass it on while vaccinated not to mention still being able to catch it esp now we have a three month gap in doses

You won’t get a re-rate on results day, it will come much later in February once broker statements have been reissued and analysis of forward earnings completed.
Besides, there are far too many retail with their fingers already hovering over the sell button and the MMs know that.
You need to hold until at least H1 but that will take courage
My view is sell today if you need the money, or want to invest elsewhere, hold or buy if you can give it at least another 6 months to 12 moths
Long term SP £100 imo if not acquired
GLA what ever your call

@Wilson
I tried to change the thread discussion from numpty cgt questions back to trading and it was like platting fog. I was cursing and it was out of hours at the time, lol
They need mumsnet really

Oh la la
Some chunky buys In France
Amazing they buy the stock but can we get any government orders out of them?
Still vote to move to the Nasdaq
LOL

@leicesterboy
I had a pig like that in my portfolio, happens to the best of us.
Take care

Just need some +30% +35% days to start to kick in now
Get this stock towards its proper valuation
Long way to go yet......baby steps

A good trading update with positive contract news a week later is required
Some of that 22bn order will do us :)
GLA

All companies on AIM are effectively up for sale as stock can be acquired and a bid tabled. In addition, the diagnostics sector is due further consolidation in my opinion and market control is everything.

I see Thermo Fisher and Astrazeneca as our main threats. There are others.

The problem we have currently with Novacyt is that we are incredibly vulnerable. The SP is so pathetically low in relation to the business it is doing that its currently a ridiculously cheap take out target.

If you look at deals that have been successful they have effectively rocked up and offered 40% over the stock closing price at a specific day deals have been done.

Think about it, if we turn in Revenue of 350m at the update and project 1 bn next year unless our SP seriously rallies I think a bid will be tabled at a small premium to the SP and we are at risk of not seeing full value. It really is my biggest fear.

What you need to consider is that we are not properly rated. A business like Astrazenica has a PE of X101 !!! If they paid 2 bn for Novacyt on a PE of x10, it would be worth ten times as much as part of their business - no brainer and they need an R&D and diagnostics division.

An eye watering 50 bn budget JUST for testing stateside in now on offer:-
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/01/24/bidens-covid-testing-push-calls-more-supplies-and-rapid-tests/4215619001/
“I still can’t do all the tests I’d like to do,” said Godbey, laboratory director of Southeast Georgia Regional Medical Center in Brunswick. “If we can’t get the reagents necessary, we measure turnaround time in days.”
When testing demand surged this summer in Sun Belt states, labs in communities hard hit by COVID-19 routinely took one week or longer to complete results. Supply shortages snarled results at small and large labs alike"

The issue they have stateside is that they can't turn around PCR tests quickly, they struggle to get the reagents and as we know the FDA have pulled practically every LFT off the market.

The debate now is do they also use less effective rapid tests? Biden calls for wider use of rapid tests to complement lab testing in settings such as schools.

"It makes sense to deploy rapid tests in settings such as schools. If students, teachers and other employees are tested frequently with rapid tests, parents can gain confidence the school is safe. All of the sudden, the economy gets stimulated again because the parents can go to work,"

Not sure how much impact Novacyt can make stateside with such little boots on the ground, its an expanding market for sure. We did about 6% sales USA by the end of H1.

With a market this enormous perhaps just plain partnering with a number of big medical manufactures stateside and agree white label deals under license left right and centre is the way to go??

As it stands i can't see how we can physically manufacture and supply enough kit to the USA especially with the rest of the market to support and if DHSC do finally come through that must surely use up the rest of our capacity?

Nice problem to have i guess...

@Junga
"For good measure, I 've calculated that based on the broker notes, the market is currently pricing in 209m£ (or 234m Euro) of revenue"
I would agree that sounds about right.