Member Info for Porky9

I still stand by my short term target
PE Ratio of sub X3 level can't hold much longer
Expecting positive broker note from S P Angel any moment followed by Operational Update unless any update on the DHSC position falls beforehand.
Good Luck

Adding again on Monday
Good Luck

Its going to take a lot longer than a few years to vaccinate the entire world, there are already different variants and even if you have been vaccinated you can still pass it onto someone else.
Testing is here for a long time, Novacyt meanwhile is on a PE of less than X3
So good luck with your short, you are going to need it
Now please make trouble elsewhere as we have a positive pro Novacyt share group here and we are not selling, we are buying,

LMOL
A two bit shorting syndicate is actually trying to have another go...
Bless, you got to love the effort. I admire the bravery of trying to short something on a PE less than 3
Be bloody funny if a Operational update was to land later morning or contract news...
Still Adding

Sounds good to me @SteveV
We will get there... just starting to get interesting now as we move into the next growth phase...
I remain very confident

@ShaunP
Spam email to my business suggesting we purchase Siemens Clinigen test products to test staff.
https://www.thegreenoffice.co.uk/covid-19-testing-kits/clinitest-rapid-covid-19-antigen-testsults-in-15-minutes
Might want to add to file

Re: DHSC
Put simply; If you are implementing new advanced technology and you say phase one is to try out 300 machines and the value is £150m and if that goes well we will extend the P1 by a further 14 weeks for services and associated kit for £ 100m and it turns out in reality only 200 machines were initially installed due to implementation issues, then it doesn’t take Einstein to calculate that the DHSC probably only paid two thirds £ 100m to the year end.

With the roll out of PROmate any teething issues are now fully resolved. It looks like the testing volume is going up to confirm this, as such I suspect the final 100 machines of phase 1 are now in place and its going well. IMO the revenues for the final part may well fall into 2021 which also means that other sales during 2020 were stronger than we thought.

As such the final part of phase 1 I would suspect would be agreed soon and if the technology is now working well then, I see no reason why the remaining 700 units for phase 2 or certainly a good number of them in a revised contract can’t now be rolled out, adding further, it makes perfect sense?

Re: PR and Communications
“Obviously, GM's comment was poorly written. A PR expert needs employing, and their twitter account needs to be brought under that umbrella. Currently, it seems like we have a junior on that job”.

I can confirm that they are aware of this issue, they know they can do better and are going to improve communication. They currently have a solid focus on ensuring that the business delivers first, they are building a business of substance not one built on hype.

We are witnessing the building of foundations for a significant diagnostics business here based on delivered performance, they are creating expectations that can be realised. The executive team are now in place for the next stage of growth.

Re: Share Price
When the market is worried and sell, that is the time to buy. The fact that the business is now so materially undervalued in relation to its delivered results is beyond me, PE Ratio of x3.6 yet the 2021 year is solid and in addition the 2022 is also forecast strong. The SP has fallen on retail fear.

The broker note update soon from S P Angel should help, likewise I suspect an “Operational Update” could be issued but ultimately the SP will take care of itself.

Any news on extended contracts or other advances will add to the business strength.

I continue to add and it may surprise some but also I maintain my price targets!! Nothing has changed it’s a diagnostics group of the future being built not a “fly by night” as some may assume without proper research.

GLA
Pork's

Hope you are right, Time will tell

I would suspect that with so many ongoing matters, not to mention the companies realisation that the "trading update" wasn't written well they will likely put out an "Operational Update" shortly to further clarify.

From my own perspective and my average stock price is significantly higher than any early holders, due to constantly averaging up, I am not that concerned with the short term price fluctuations, its annoying yes to see the SP fall when its already materially undervalued but this will correct itself in time, that I'm confident of and is also my reason for continuing to add but i equally except that different people have different circumstances and timelines to consider.

Pork's

@Ejackson
I am 100% on the same page as you regarding this business.

Graham messed up the wording of that RNS relating to the forward position, nobody in any business can say exactly what next years trade will be like, but Graham should have worded it better. A mistake made BUT they will improve PR and communication going forwards.

Shorter’s and the market ceased on that Friday and shareholders paid the price. The position was confirmed to Numis later that day but by then it was to late, utter carnage in the SP on a business that is already materially undervalued, a PE of x 3.4 for heaven’s sake!!

The good news is they deliver what they say. Graham is a guy with total integrity and principal. Its refreshing to see this on the AIM. They have a focus on delivery, not on hype. They have strengthened the executive team in preparation of being a mid cap business and they have expanded their global presence. They are entering the next stage of growth as I say.

I am also in total agreement regarding your comments about Glaxo, there will be others. I fear that if the SP remains at this pathetically low level for much longer, based on the proven trading figures to the year end they will now be a takeover target, it could be taken out as cheap as 2bn imo, it is a no brainer, its like adding an extra division to your business for free when you add Novacyt’s revenues and cash balance to an established business trading on a decent PE ratio!

As you say, if they do get awarded anything further with the DHSC it will boost the SP, but the base is solid without, US sales I think will be major this year, so I am not overly concerned. Business is well positioned with a great spread of contracts as it stands.

Pork’s

Despite the blunder in the wording of the forward statement the results are in fact EXCEPTIONALLY good and forward earnings for all of 2021 and 2022 year are also strong.

To recap this is the actual position to end of 2020 (figs in Euros): -
Revenues 312m
EBITDA 209m
Net Cash 99m
PE Ratio X 3.4
The company is debt free.

We await the updated broker notes from S P Angel due anytime soon.

However, Numis have issued their broker note late on Friday with a continued BUY rating and base price target of £13.65.
They have also issued forward earnings estimates for 2021. This is without ANY of the DHSC contract or any other major wins or revenues from future acquisitions and they state it as being Conservative: -
Revenues 317 m
EBITDA 198 m
Net Cash 178m

As I say, the results were brilliant, but this has been lost in translation. If this business were on the Nasdaq or rated in line
with its peers, the SP would be multiple times higher than where it is today. Support this business, they are building solid foundations for the future and the SP will ultimately follow.

I want to reiterate what I posted earlier as its important: -

This is a business run by a guy with total integrity and principal. Its refreshing to see this on the AIM. They deliver what they say. They have a focus on delivery, not on hype. They have strengthened the executive team in preparation of being a mid cap business. They have expanded their global presence. They are entering the next stage of growth.

They continue to build the foundations for a significant diagnostics business and are doing this by ensuring they deliver continued performance, create expectations that can be realised and not to ramp the business.

Seriously it does not get better than this. Its a fantastic business and today I have no doubts whatsoever, they will move to being a mid cap business. it is just a matter of time.

GLA
Pork's

Read the Numis Broker Note released yesterday.
It is a) Factual and b) on the basis of no further DHSC business
https://twitter.com/Kat_Hassard/status/1355454712926138368/photo/1
This is the base line position
DHSC and the other major contracts discussed - will be on top of this!!!!
New product pipeline this quarter - will be on top of this!!!!
Revenues from any acquisition made - will be on top of this!!!!
At the end of three years it will still be doing north of £ 90m minimum bottom line profit
A serious re-rate is just a matter of time....
GLA

Read my post, I'm trying to tell you something
GLA

Note to all holders.
This is seriously the time to add, use this over reaction price drop as a time to add if you can.
I have been VERY bullish about this stock as most of you know but never said "you should buy this stock" today I am, it will get very interesting soon and communications will be improved.
All i want to say further is you need to consider something:-
This is a business run by a guy with total integrity and principal. Its refreshing to see this on the AIM. They deliver what they say. They have a focus on delivery, not on on hype. They are strengthening the executive team in preparation of being a mid cap business. They continue to build the foundations for a significant diagnostics business and are doing this by ensuring they deliver continued performance, create expectations that can be realised and not to ramp the business.
Seriously it doesn't get better than this. Its a fantastic business and today i have no doubts what so ever, they will move to being a mid cap business. it's just a matter of time.
Stick with it and add where you can, you will thank me for this advice.
Ignore the de-rampers here and shorters with alterior motives, seriously they know nothing....

@hamsters18
Thank you, you are so kind, we hold the faith, its just a matter of time...
In the words of Novacyt:-
Not the time to celebrate just yet, more to come...

"Despite posting mid-cap beating financials of £177m EBITDA for the full-year, shares in Novacyt took a heavy fall to give the company a m.cap of just £625m (trading at a mere 3.5 times its profit)."
https://www.sharebuyers.co.uk/shares/numis-backs-novacyt-for-success-even-without-a-big-government-contract/
"Within its model it also has revenues taking a fall to £178.9m with profit of £90.8m for 2022 – although caveats this with a view that it may be too conservative ‘as high level of testing’ looks likely to be required for ‘some time’."

So there it is from the house broker. Even taking the very conservative bottom line profit figure (without any DHSC contracts) of £ 90.8m with a market average PE ratio of X16.5 that gives us £1.5bn market cap or £ 21 and that's the lower end.

So much upside here its ridiculous, i maintain this is materially undervalued.

Indicates bullish buy with continued growth during the next five years:-
https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/ncyt-stock-prediction
"Our Ai stock analyst implies that there will be a positive trend in the future and the NCYT shares might be good for investing for making money. Since this share has a positive outlook we recommend it as a part in your portfolio"

Indicates bullish buy with continued growth during the next five years:-
https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/ncyt-stock-prediction
"Our Ai stock analyst implies that there will be a positive trend in the future and the NCYT shares might be good for investing for making money. Since this share has a positive outlook we recommend it as a part in your portfolio"

Novacyt are innovators in POC testing with a strategy of moving towards the de-centralisation of lab testing. All the majors in this sector are reporting expected growth 2021-2024 and beyond. It will be much the same for Novacyt.
January is already off to a flying start. I suspect we will see a further update in this regard. The future for 2021 - 2027 will continue to be strong.

Meanwhile:-
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/covid-19-diagnostics-market
"Point-of-care (PoC) COVID-19 tests are expected to gain immense traction in the near future, thus estimated to expand at the highest CAGR of 3.9% from 2021 to 2027. The development of point-of-care technology for the detection of COVID-19 infection is aimed at reducing the assay duration and scaling up the testing capacity to prevent further transmission of the disease, which has led to the segment’s highest growth rate. In September 2020, a Cambridge hospital demonstrated the combined use of antibody testing and rapid point-of-care nucleic acid to improve patient outcomes. This approach can be particularly useful in low resource settings as centralized testing capabilities are scarce and the number of new confirmed cases is witnessing exponential growth"

The bottom line as i see it is that at some point this business will start to be rated based on its revenues and profits NOT just on its cash balance.

I continue to add as i can afford.

Of course a move to the Nasdaq would sort this issue immediately but its clear to me that even with Covid completely under control, which isn't likely, testing will continue and localised diagnostics installed.

Interesting to see a good number of de-ramping posts and clearly shorting syndicate type posts looking for a new target.

Personally, i would avoid shorting Novacyt and look for a better target due to the fact that it only takes one large contract order, acquisition news or black rock adding or other adding or even a Third Party bid and the share price can turn in an instant. Trying to short a stock with a PE of about x3 is very dangerous but each to their own.

I'm standing by the company, yes the forward statement was badly worded on Friday but that's scientists for you. They deliver exactly what they say they will deliver but the PR situation can be resolved. They are also in a position to acquire a company to further strengthen the business and that is part of the plan.

@mburns
"I spent my life in tech sales and if I had told the business it was too early in the year to give them a forecast I would have been fired. That's in effect what happened yesterday! It was nieve and smacked of inexperience. And it really didn't need to happen."
............................................
That say's it all and I'm in total agreement, it was a really poor written update.
The good news is that providing GM is aware of this he can make the required changes. I really hope he does!!
Especially with everything else being absolutely sound, the progress, scale and transformation has been exceptional.
The irronic thing here is that sales in 2021 will likely remain strong if not ahead of 2020 year !!! yet the market is not hearing that.
The revised broker notes out should help. i remain confident they can do this.
GLA