Member Info for Porky9

I still haven't seen the full updated broker note from S P Angel. I know that they still maintain a BUY rating and £ 14.63 SP. Perhaps they are waiting until end of February in case they need to revise it higher? We can but hope!

Meanwhile, I just find it interesting that II interest has significantly increased since the results were published. Today we discover that Fidelity are buying in and this isn't some tracker fund. A heck of a lot of retail have sold out recently and funds have just moved in. This is why the II always win they get ahead of what's going on and buy.

With retail, even when the research and information is right under their noses, many will just ignore it and chase something else looking that bit more sexy. On this board even if you have done ZERO research of your own, you can look over shaun's files and get a real good understanding of what's going on. Issue is that some investors just can't be bothered.

Perhaps it is just me but, i have never purchased an investment in a business without at least doing some base research.

Finally, this stock trading 70% of its shares in France, i see this as a real negative now you cant' convince me otherwise. The business is handicapped having to work around two lots of regs and write updates in both English and French. Frankly i'm all for them ditching the current position and moving 100% to the Nasdaq where they understand these businesses.

I'm just not responding on a negative thread title, I'm just not, so reverted to Materially Undervalued which is where this business currently sits.

Yes, I'm "passionate" about this company. I have been around and worked with enough companies to recognise a decent well run company when i see one and it doesn't get much better than Novacyt in my opinion.

Now if other investors want to invest and chase "potential" stocks with zero fundamentals food luck with that. I will stick to this one thanks.

Further, if your other investments are so good why not go to that stocks BB and support there? Why waste your energy talking about a stock you don't own, pointless? I might spend a lot of time commenting and posting research here but i have a vested interest in the businesses continuing success.

It was a link from a poster on Twitter:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/GoundoulEl/status/1357067929934823425/photo/1

This is an update on the position last night with Morning star so its VERY recent

If you are as passionate as i am about this business doing well, just look at this Board tonight and take one step back.

What the shorters are doing is flooding the board with cr@p and negative tile headings "How low will the price go" etc

Should anyone new visit this board to research Novacyt the immediate impression is we have spent all fcking night discussing the impending furher crash of the SP. Triump1 "Oh i think it will be £ 4 oooh no i think it might be £ 3" you know the square route of FA.

We carry out some rich research and share it here on this Board, lets not feed these idiots. Its a nil sum game.

I will get back to research later, hopefully they will go to bed at some point. Can but hope...

Pork's

@Bing007
Great Find - Thanks
IMO Fidelity don't do 19,000, if they have identified Novacyt on the AIM as a target, we can expect further buying in and this to go significantly higher. First step i'm expecting a 3% hold.
Time will tell - nice to have another blue chip on par with Black Rock
Move IIs moving in now

Look I really can understand the frustration here especially when we have an undervalued market cap and yet its still being eroded further. 30% since last week.

I remain significantly invested here, not in profit having averaged up and buying all the way to £ 12 so I am not sitting here debating if my gain will be 500% or could drop to 250%. There are investors in that privileged position, but I am not one of them! However, a lot took profits at previous rises.

More recently, retail sold bucket loads and Institutional Investors brought, fact.

If you are uneasy about your holding you should sell, its that simple. Do not hold shares in a business you do not trust or value or understand.

I am significantly invested here because I have done my homework. I have seen these situations in the past and I have seen retail panicking and posting all kinds of conspiracy stories and seen MM’s playing them like a Stradivarius.

If the share price fell to next to nothing tomorrow, I still would not sell a single share and that is because it is a paper loss not a materialised loss until you sell. Solid foundations are being built here; I am absolutely convinced this is going to be a Titan business of the future and further I stand by my price targets! Ultimately, I believe the SP will be many multiples of where we are today.

Exec team in place, research into other diagnostics markets, heck its going to deliver north of another 320m in this year without any government contracts and 180m minimum in 2022 and that is if they have not acquired anyone by then in which case the cash pile will be north of £390m and you are telling me the market cap here Is right at £ 580m – bloody ridiculous.

Now, as I see it the junior market is sentiment led and despite fundamentals can react irrationally as we are seeing now, IMO eventually sentiment will catch up with fundamentals, it is a matter of time. Currently we have idiots on Twitter suggesting investors should sell Novacyt (with its proven sales) and buy ODX (on hype of potential) when the later did £3 m of sales and £1.4m loss. That is how it is currently.

Finally, the company is aware of what is going on. I have personally spent this afternoon writing to a few business editors myself to try and raise PR awareness. We can all do our bit. The company will update shortly as soon as they have something confirmed to say. They are building a business of substance NOT hype – remember that.

I do not want to advocate shareholders contact the company directly as they are busy getting on with delivering result is and have better things to be doing but they are an open. If there are specific questions (that are not market sensitive) I would be prepared to ask them for you but ultimately it comes down to having a bit of faith and patience for now.

In my opinion, this business is on the brink of greatness but only you can make your own call. Others will disagree with me, that's fine, that is what makes a m

Nice one simple00
That's prompted me. I think i will have a go at writing an article and send it to them. We all know how lazy editors are.....

@E_AL
V. Interesting
Any further note comes out showing a significant increase in holding for Blackrock and it will confirm my suspicions that they are acquiring on behalf of a client to table a acquisition. Every 1% about the current 3.02% they hold has to be declared.

No official idea, its still in negotiation.

The next contract imo was due from 1st Feb so no decision has been made which likely added to the SP crash on Friday and the subsequent SP slide despite our great results and ongoing revenues without it.

I also think the government are so dumb they probably believed that the vaccine roll out was going to be this massive silver bullet to "kill this virus" and "get right on top of it" are now frozen light a rabbit caught in the headlights now all these variants are coming through. Cheap innova LFTs won't detect this?

They need proper testing so with the landscape changing so quickly imo (not to mention the care home situation) best guess is that this will get more attention now, decisions will need to be made.

I see two strong situations evolving:-

1. More exact Antigen testing being the next big thing. People wanting to know not only what levels of antibodies they may have in their system but also what protections are in place against the variants. Without doubt we are going to need to move to a multi variant vaccine. This also tells me that unfortunately the vaccines we are currently using may not give the levels of protection we think they are as more variants come through hence even more testing going forwards.

2. With our market cap this low and GSKs move in this direction I really would now be banging on Novacyts door to acquire them. Absolute no brainer and they would then take R&D and testing in-house. With GSKs market cap it would be effectively a free acquisition. At say 2bn cost the added market value at GSK would be more than the acquisition cost. Someone somewhere must be bright enough to see this?

@Naewise
That’s why what creates a market, fear leads to retail selling whilst institutions and the brave buy, it’s how it will works.
The more research you do here the more you understand what a great business you are invested in. Give it time it’s a business in growth phase

First in the world to develop a covid test and now first in the world to be able to test for the multi variants.
The next few weeks will get interesting
Investors will start buying into businesses actually delivering results rather than hype
We remain so materially undervalued you couldn't make it up.
The tide has to turn

@Saintsmith
Coverage in a number of press articles
It's interesting that currently it looks like hype wins over substance.
Here we have Novacyt actually delivering results, 311m of sales delivered in the last year and forecast slightly more this year with a potential of even higher revenues yet, investors are rushing into other stocks that have delivered nothing at all or even losses, but would rather they buy into hyped up potential.
Ultimately cream has to rise to the top
GLA

I do have a contact at Numis but he doesn't work on this account.
My own calculations were indicating that we got £100m of the £ 150m within the timeline to 31/12. My gut feeling is that a further 50 m would come in the H1?
Its been of much debate on here but in my own experience public sector contracts are sh@t payers, i just don't expect the remaining 100 units to be installed and invoiced in the 2020 year.
Where's Shaun when we need him.....

@Jungla

The big elephant in the room is if any of the DHSC contract or similar is awarded or not.

I find that Numis are normally fairly accurate, I know others here would agree. In fact, if you look at 2020 Numis analysts forecast of 305 m revenues, 253 m GP 83% and cash at bank of 93 m. The business delivered 312 m revenues, 250 m GP 80% and cash at bank was 101 m so you could argue they were fairly accurate.

The situation is that Numis have said the forecast for 2021 is very conservative because it does not include any DHSC, no allowance for any big contract wins, any allowance for new product revenue lines OR moreover any revenues that could come from any acquisition targets.

They are forecasting 317 m revenues, 252 m GP 79% and cash at bank 279 m on this basis.

Now, we can reasonably assume that if the P1 of the DHSC gets awarded this means contract extended by 14 weeks that will be £ 100m minimum of revenue to add to the H1 results. A phase 2 order would be substantial and increase that revenue figure hence would assist moving us up a gear depending on the deal negotiated.

We cannot know at this stage exactly how this will go, it will be electric if some of these larger contracts land however, worse case scenario we are still looking at another 317m plus of revenue at least this year. These are revenues some businesses can only dream of and certainly the SP should start reflecting this.

The problem currently with the junior markets involved here is that despite the rock-solid fundamentals of this business they are sentiment led. As it stands the market is acting irrationally however, I really believe that ultimately sentiment will catch up with fundamentals.

I remain very pro this business; it is currently on the brink of greatness and you really do not want to be out or short on this stock when it all kicks off.

I appreciate others may disagree, but this is my take on it regardless.

GLA

Pork’s

What we know is that the seed investment is to enable completion of a product and try and get it into production for use stateside. It is a home test kit where you put the swobs onto a mobile phone attachment and you get the results back in 20 mins. I have seen similar experimental stuff here.
IF it goes completely to plan it will enable home testing kits stateside from Feb 22 but long way to go yet.
By that time Novacyt will no doubt have numerous new products lines out in addition ourselves.

Looks like we might not be getting the complete picture regarding how bad these new variants are:-
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/more-mutations-of-concern-found-in-liverpool-bristol/2131596
Further the concerning bit:-
"Further to the discovery of the new mutations in the UK, it has been revealed that monoclonal antibodies -- drug treatments that are under trial against the virus -- are failing against the variants of COVID-19"
We need to maintain lock down, strict PCR Test door to door.
Probably need to extend this quickly to a wider radius of those initial locations.

Very Interesting Kaeren

Could be like buses, we get the P1 extension and confirmation of a P2 at the same time, lol

P1 has to be a certain bet i would expect especially since PROmate and now these new variant issues, no brainer. Its down to now i think if we secure any of P2 or NPT testing in the care home environment.

Lots of business out there

I have obviously seen the one page confirmation reconfirming S P Angels BUY rating and £ 14.65 price which is positive.
Also have the fully updated Numis report.

But has anyone seen a full broker update from them yet? updating on their previous broker note issued October 20?

Guessing this will be out end of Q1 if not yet issued?

Pork's

CS
I have no interest in engaging with you
But you will soon regret not owning part of this business - Fact
The fun hasn’t started yet