Member Info for Porky9

@Trinityman
You are a trader, I'm an investor, different investment styles.
I have speculated money in an investment "punt" just like playing the occasional game of roulette BUT i take investing in businesses that I believe in for the long term VERY seriously.
In Novacyt I'm building a long term position.
New investors visit this board for information, if they come here and see three pages of crap from idiots posting the company is overpriced, its going to crash to £4 or whatever else, i rightly try to correct them.
If that means reposting specific information i will do so. Investors need to understand what this business is building and why the RNS came out the way it did.
I was rude to you because your post was incredibly patronising, don't do that. You reap what you so.
Good luck in your investment decisions

If I was a Novacyt sales rep i would be all over this trying to get Versalab rolled out to support:-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55898258
One report i read last night was saying its suspected we have almost 20 times as many cases already.
If test and trace had gone down a pure lock down and PCR test process at the start we wouldn't be in the mess we are in and would already have control.
Yet again we are being reactive rather than proactive but on a positive note at least the right action is being taken.

LOL - just watching in the sidelines...
I'm more protective over the night shift...
Take care

@Wilson63
II's been playing an absolute blinder this week but frankly they may as well, i mean with so many treating the stock market like a casino they will get away with it.
People selling here to buy ODX, so ditch an investment in a business that's delivering proven results for one that did £3m of sales and a £1.4m loss with a 130m market cap with unproven potential? each to their own.
They are not looking at fundaments they are simply chasing rainbows.
Gut feeling here is that II will load up and the price will start climbing

@eljefegrande
LOL - The milkman, yes the battery operated milk float!!. I had a go as a kid, as i dropped the pints off he would drive up the road and i would chase after with the glass empties. It went that slow I could out run the float !
The posh people in the street had fizzy pop from the Alpine Pop man, LOL
Told you i was going insane, It's this lock down, One day just rolls into the next !
Take care

This was probably the biggest news of the day on Monday (apart from 106 votes for v 17 Against)
The fact they are going straight in with the gold standard PCR test speaks volumes.
https://kccmediahub.net/covid-19-variant-testing-in-me15-area745
and
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55889391
These testing areas are from Maidstone in Kent to Woking and back up to Walsall in the West Midlands. That's one heck of a spread. One report i read claims the SA variant is here and could be 20X as many cases!! Very worrying.
But, the news for us here is that when the cards are down, the government rely and need the PCR test
If they are moving in favour of PCR because they know they can pick up multi variants then this bodes really well i think for extended use of PCR in both hospitals and for NPT in cares homes.
Come on, logic has to win over previous idiotic decisions on LFTs? Surely
Time will tell
GLA

Hi Daniel1985,

I read your post with interest and in good faith I am going to attempt to counter your viewpoint as I see it: -

The company are positioning themselves to become a mid cap diagnostics group. I agree that diversification is important.

However, Covid has represented a massive opportunity. They have not only delivered significant revenues which will continue over the next few years but moreover have created the channels, the distribution partners and global networks which will enable any new innovations or acquisitions to be plugged in quickly and moved out in volume.

Also, unfortunately to vaccinate the entire world will take some time, some amazingly do not want to be vaccinated and new variants that keep arriving could continue to cause issues. I am of the opinion now that diagnostics is here to stay, volumes may drop ultimately after 2024 but there will still be an ongoing requirement. By this time, the business will be further established.

You are wrong about Retail Investors; this stock is controlled by retail. There are over 30,000 retail shareholders the bulk of these are in France. Since last week retail have sold in their droves but in the background the IIs have cleaned up.
Institutional Investors 1 Retail Investors Nil
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xpar/alnov/ownership

Some II shuffling but on balance bulk of stock went from Retail hands to Institutional. Now as we have seen nobody can predict where the SP will go this week, but I am bullish as you would expect.

I am going to say that the SP will go into reversal and will start to rally and as a result retail will start piling back in again in their droves and the bounce will be high to £ 20.

In the reverse, the reason why I cannot see the price crashing to £ 5 is because it did not fall anywhere near that low at the last crash in November, those investors that wanted out or cut losses or take profits are already out and the lower percentage left are just not likely to sell. Finally, you are talking about 350 m market cap at £5, it did close to that in revenue last year and forecast same again this year cannot see it and as IIs now have a bucket load more shares around the £ 9 level they want a profit on those, not a loss!!

Good luck anyhow what ever your call.

Pork's

@Sonicboomboy
Brilliant, thanks you made me smile we could do with some charts, I'm putting all my best china away before market open don't want to jinx anything... :)
Did you see this one, compliments of Paul Martin on Twitter; £ 18 SP Incoming apparently:-
https://twitter.com/panander/status/1356412175334699009/photo/1
There's more lines on that than the London Underground!!
Think i will have a go myself next week and see if i create one with lines that travel to £ 54
LOL, Take Care
Porks

Thanks Tay.

I am in somewhat of agreement with you.

The big problem we have with a ridiculously low market cap is that we come to acquire something at the market rate and suddenly it looks awfully expensive, its all relative. Once our market cap is at its correct level then its easier to absorb something that is more substantial.

The other alternative of course is to leverage the cash pile to guarantee interest payments against new debt on a larger acquisition that they can roll out via their network and pay off over period.

As you say, an alternative is pushing out new innovations but then you have the approval process and everything else to consider which takes time?

I notice the US are playing with home kits that deliver results to your mobile phone, but they are looking at February 22 before they take delivery of any. These are innovative ideas.

Clearly, we are all waiting on an acquisition, nothing last quarter and we really need to see something this quarter, but it obviously must be right. I notice they were doing some great things relating to testing in maternity and in cancer tumours so maybe scope in other bio related areas?

I kind of thought they might have gone after Optigene Limited in Horsham as they have an approved ready to go lamp test. My thinking was something ready to go that they can push straight out via their network and support volume. When they launch their LAMP test not sure how quick they can get approval for it?

Will think about topics, retail investors are better for you work Tay, its truly outstanding.

Pork’s

@Tayq
Thanks for dropping by, really appreciate your valuable updates and feedback.
Please, pretty please with hundreds and thousands on top; can you give us an insider update on your site soon?. The holders here need it, we are going through a storm at the moment as you know and frankly with some of the pessimism here following all the shorters and "told you so's" its been like wrestling with a bag of cats....
We need a boost... Thanks in advance....
Take care now
Pork's

@Oriens1
"So Graham
You have had a fantastic 2020 in terms of revenue and new products ! Please tell the market and people who wish to invest, how do you see revenues been in 2021?
GM : Ehhhhhh I don't know!!!!!!"
.........................................................

I totally understand your frustration, i felt the same on Friday morning. You can take my comment with a pinch of salt but this is my take on it:-

His choice of wording was poor, he knows that. He is awaiting on DHSC and others that may or may not drop and can't give an exact. The guy is scientific back ground and only likes to quote facts - I can tell that he is honest as a day is long and won't state something they can't deliver on. The foundations being built here are rock solid. He won't hype the business that's how it is, but he is truly scaling with top draw appointments to the board in preparation of being mid cap - he is a serious player.

Furthermore, he is having to communicate on two different platforms, juggle with two sets of authorities and update in two different languages. The regulatory news for trading updates to quote figures is for that purpose only NOT for PR and "Operational Updates" which is really what we wanted to see.

Mistakes were learnt but they are not insurmountable Oriens, they are not and it will change.
Numis wanted some figures for their broker note and you will notice they have put in estimates ex DHSC and ex anything else they have agreed with GM rock bottom estimates (estimates that GM knows they will comfortably exceed) estimates that will be blown away of DHSC or anything large drops and they are in at circa 3% growth on the last year. That's another 320m of revenues!!! They are just getting on with it and will deliver!!

Hope my post helps. Good Luck

PS. The cost of tests keeps coming up. I can tell you it is 10 USD, its 10 USD no change. The margin was 80% from 83% I suspect that is pure currency differences but work on 10 USD or £ 7.31 at todays rates.

Thanks for the overwhelming vote of support, truly kind of you all, its appreciated. As you say its not the X factor, but it can get to us all at times.

I do get defensive over this company especially when newbies turn up with little research and tell me its going to be £ 4 or shorters with obvious agenda, it does get to me. I will try and sound less rampy going forwards. it is just I am genuinely passionate about this business; I have done tons of research and I do believe in my high price targets. I remain significantly invested. I added another £15ks worth today and my average price is Very high compared to early buyers.

We are all feeling the pain of this drop now, a third off the market cap, it does not deserve that imo especially whilst watching other stocks do well that are built on hype.

As some of you know I was in communication with Graham this weekend and I just thought what a terrific guy, he knows the wording of the forward statement was poor and an “Operational Update” will resolve that, he has had lots of shareholders contact him about it so he is fully aware but, by god is this Guy dedicated to the core, he is building a business of substance here not hype and its crystal clear to me that this business will be mid-cap irrespective of the share price today.

I genuinely believe we are ahead of the market with the research here, the true value of the business has not caught up with it yet, I really believe that.

The last time I EVER felt this confident about a business on AIM was after I spoke to Nick Robertson at ASOS in 2006. In those days he would talk to you!!! It was remarkably like this, share price drifting, played and when it started going up there were plenty of doom mongers on boards advising to sell, it had gone from 5p to 15p and it was overpriced, I sold stock back then at stupid prices because I did not know any better only to buy back later at higher prices. When it went to a £1 it was overpriced, £5, £10, £20, £50, £70, blah blah anyhow the rest Is history.

Novacyt is that early business, I hate to see its value being destroyed especially at this low level, but it is what it is. If people want to sell, short, put the money into ODX or anything else, heck put the lot on red or black in the casino that is their business.

I know what I see and as an investment in a growing business it does not get better than this imo, honestly, you probably get to see one business like this every 10 years if you are lucky imo and I guess that is why I boil over. I will try and reign it in a bit going forwards and keep it factual.

GLA thanks, for holders of this stock I’m sure our time is yet to come.

Pork’s

VOTE HERE - CONTINUE POSTING

VOTE HERE - FOR STOP POSTING

I have done my best to contribute to this forum and on dark evenings tried to lift spirits in our darkest hour.
In view of the fact that some clearly don't appreciate my positive outlook i am prepared to resign from posting here.
The next two posts here will give you a chance to vote. If there are more likes to me not posting than posting here i will resign and leave you to it. No point in me putting effort in here if others are not interested.

I remain a Novacyt share holder and i will continue to add irrespective of the outcome

Good luck All

So we now need to carry out door to door PCR testing of an entire region.
Clearly they desperately want to isolate this virus. This is certainly the right call, one i only wished they had done right from the start and the UK probably wouldn't be in the mess its in.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55889391
However;
"And data suggests the vaccines will work against it, although maybe not quite as well as they do against the original one"
What exactly does "maybe not quite as well" mean?
Fact is we have no real data on it.
What i am surprised about is why there is a not a massive run on Novacyt buying today - the government are going PCR !!!

In addition...

And i'm not going to list the endless number of diagnostics businesses rated higher than Novacyt but even bloody ScourceBio (SBI) launched on the AIM, yes launched on the sodding exchange, and it has a market cap of £171 million and its forecast to deliver £14 m of profits.....

We just delivered, delivered 311 million and 80% and forecast the same for next year and our market cap is a pathetic £580 m - where's the justification.

So yeah, i'm rightly annoyed...it's not right and if the AIM cant rate this business properly they should seriously look at moving the business to the Nasdaq

@Ravenox
Remotely negative..... we have just had a third of the market cap written off.
The business employs 126 staff, has strengthened its executive team, has a network supporting 130 countries , has delivered 311m revenue on an 80% margin and is expected by broker forecasts to exceed that in 2021 and retail are buying some two bit stock of a company that has delivered FA sales but has "potential" and its the better option?? Jesus.

I have spent most of yesterday fending off shorters on this board, predicting share price doom and £4 predictions who I suspect have opened shorts against Novacyt and spend their time encouraging shareholders to sell.

We don't need our own positive holders starting to agree with them because the price has fallen!!!

I'm ****'d Ravenox as there is clearly no bloody justice here.

@Shaun
Value your work as you know but please just remove your price predictions, its not your bag, if you have nothing positive to add please don't bother.
Just taking the broker note issued by Numis by 2023 the revenues have fallen to 171m and 88 m profits so even on that basis on a PE of x16 you are talking £1.5 bn or circa £ 21 and that's on a bleak outlook basis.
ODX have have broken 125m market cap today and delivered 3 m of sales and 1.4m of loss !!! We have delivered 311 m of sales at 80% - By that matrix we should have a market cap of 12bn !!!
We are materially undervalued.

No, No official confirmation ;)