Member Info for Porky9

@Surfie1961
I totally stand by my short term SP target of £ 53 by H1 results to end of June 21 and £ 100 SP Long term target.
The valuation method Shaun uses is materially underweight.
What holds Novacyt back is the forward earnings potential. It was assumed that revenues would fall off the side of a cliff in 2021 when in fact the opposite has occurred if you look at our peers, revenues are set to increase throughout 2021 and remain strong through to 2024.
If the trading statement confirms same the market will have confidence to re-rate.
I genuinely believe that Novacyt should be on a PE of at least x 16
GLA

Evening,
fleeting post, night shift doesn't start yet, lol

As stated this morning, we should remind ourselves regarding what the two appointed brokers issued.
They do act for the business after all and are supposed to be “close” to what is going on.
They are actually expecting (FACT): -
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020_Oct_SP_Angel_Novacyt_Initiation_Note_21.10.2020.pdf
2020 Revenues of 287m to 305m (SP Angel/ Numis)
So, if we come in above these figures we have beaten expectations!!

I did a VERY rough calculation the other night after the information in public domain was released and even working on major delays in the Q roll out i was still coming out North of 350m Revenue . IMO we will beat broker forecasts by at least 20% minimum - that's my call.

However, I now believe that Shaun's estimate of 489m could actually end up being spot on, i cant fault the assumptions and if that is the case we have not just beaten forecasts, we have absolutely destroyed them!!!
Coming in at something like 60-70% above broker forecasts, wouldn't that be something, in this climate not many businesses can report that...

I'm trying to remain grounded, but of if we come in North of anything like 400m then over 1bn for 2021 would be a very real possibility and the market would have to react to that, by H1 this business figures are going to look incredible at the current growth trajectory.

This is exponential growth at its most impressive, not long to wait now to find out

GLA

If you introduce a new technology into an old established framework like the NHS, getting everyone onboard with it is always going to be a challenge. It is easier to carry on with what you know than spend time learning something new. This is compounded during a pandemic where nobody has free time on their hands. It was always going to take time.

I mentioned this tongue in cheek a few weeks back, my analogy of someone extremely busy making arrows in a battle and just too busy to learn how to work the machine gun! This is what we face.

It came as no surprise to me to read the Indy article that said only 200 of the initial 300 machines had been deployed to the end of November and this was due to operational and training issues. They got this information from somewhere. This article was also married with tweets from certain NHS staff saying the process was complicated.

I genuinely believe that PrimerDesign following this, worked hard to further innovate and deliver a solution to this problem namely PROmate. And what a solution it is!!!

Further, I think that results worldwide will deliver revenues so high from other sales that a six- or eight-week lag because of low volume from the DHSC contract will not even be noticeable. With the enhancements made this revenue will soon be made up in the 2021 year.

If the roll out of PROmate has genuinely improved the process as I suspect, then I see no reason why they would not get the final order for the 700 machines. As it stands, I see nothing on the market that can better what they have produced. The DNA Nudge machine is years behind this technology from what I have recently read.

I remain incredibly positive about the full year trading figures and I feel positive of a further contract update that could also bring further good news.

Time will tell, GLA

Pork’s

I would prefer it as a totally separate RNS a week later
We have waited so long now for news spread the joy I say... providing it’s positive lol

The nasty Porky held the good lords name in vein, and on a Sunday, in a post regarding idiotic tax questions and suggesting they be posted elsewhere, i apologised to troublesome about this and the post and all of CS were removed at the same time!
Just shows you, the good lord does move I’m mysterious ways, back to church for this piggy
Take care all

So we know what we need to see in the numbers to either be in line with, or exceed the broker forecasts:-
Revenues 287.8m to 305.0m - Anything above a bonus….

But what else could really start to move this share price?

Well this is just a reminder of what is still outstanding that we desperately want clarity on:-

Microgen Tender Award for ‘Pathology and Point of Care’ £20 Billion Tender Award share
PrimerDesign Centralised Lab Contract Renewal
Phase II DHSC Unlock – We have 300 machines installed? Will we get an order for any more?
DHSC Contract for Community Settings
PrimerDesign £22 Billion Testing ‘Framework’ Tender Award share
Private Testing Deal announcement – Travel and other settings
Antibody LFT and LAMP launch alongside Private/Public Deal. Possibly mobile LAMP too.
New Device from IT-IS.
VersaLab™ partnerships and PROmate™ PHE news re: non-lab settings.
Any details on Acquisition’s – Its Q1 now is anything likely?
Major Partner deals / white label deals
Anything Stateside that could result in some of that 50bn US budget?
Unknown surprise reveals – International Tenders/Sales Updates/TR1’s etc

So much going on... it is going to get interesting very shortly.

GLA
Pork's (The nice one LOL)

I think retail investors are going a bit stir crazy during this lock down and news black out, amusing ourselves with all kinds of wild speculation regarding what to expect in the trading update.

The main thing for me is to actually see this business being rated properly and moving from what is in my opinion a cash rating to a proper material PE rating.

A fair PE Ratio in my opinion should have a starting point of at least X 16.5 if not significantly higher not this ridiculously low level where we sit now of about x 4.

For this gear change in the SP to occur the market needs to see two things: -
1. That the business can deliver on what it forecasts?
2. Has some longevity, how secure are its future earnings?

In the first part, we should remind ourselves over what the two appointed brokers, they do act for the business after all and are supposed to be “close” to what is going on, are actually expecting: -
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020_Oct_SP_Angel_Novacyt_Initiation_Note_21.10.2020.pdf
2020 Revenues of 287m to 305m (SP Angel/ Numis)
So, if we come in above these figures we have beaten expectations!!

In the second part, on the proviso that we delivered in the first part, it will give confidence that we can deliver next year, our future revenues will not be seen as “mickey mouse” and we are a serious diagnostics group contender for the future.

2021 Revenues Forecast of 287.8 and 600m (SP Angel/ Numis)

With any reports of additional product lines out, any suggestion of diversification via acquisition, any suggestion that 2021 will be as good if not better than 2020 will all also help.

Will there be any indication in the update that future broker estimates will need to be revised higher?

This is what we need to see.

GLA – not long to go now…

Porks

More wild speculation regarding results, this time from the French...
https://twitter.com/Zazaclubourso
They have created an odd table based on Feb-October with 8m tests a month and sales of 480m and 326m EBITDA
Relating to a SP of £ 24.15 at PE x5 to £ 57.95 at PE 12
Not sure what they had for Jan, Nov and December but the estimate could be right all the same but by default :)

@Uddin179
I am posting now as the market is closed so this won't be seen as a de-ramp and will be lost by Monday when the market re-opens. I am a significant holder of NCYT and I don't agree with your comparison.
NCYT is building a significant long term diagnostics group. It delivered in H1 72m of sales revenue / 49m Profits and will likely deliver north of 300m for the full year 200m with forward revenues of 1 bn for 2021. mkt cap £ 795m
Meanwhile, i have traded ODX and at the moment I have a "punt" on this stock and looking for an exit point very soon but i see it as a "punt" NOT a long term hold and this is why:-
1. LFTs are a high volume low margin business imo. So you need to do incredibly high volumes of sales to create any decent bottom line.
2. H1 results to 30th September for ODX were a total disaster, it delivered £ 3 m of sales and £1.3m loss. Its current market cap is a whopping £ 125m . As we are almost in February its full year to end of March won't be materially great.
3. Practically the entire world is ditching LFTs, soon there will be stock piles of them and trying to sell LFTs to china to compete there is like trying to sell snow to Alaska. Wrong trading region imo.
4. The recent report out to contra the Deeks white paper imo is more a government exercise to try and justify the god dam awful decision to spend millions on Innova tests. Had they not used these tests and stuck to a strict lock down with high standard accurate tests we probably wouldn't be in the mess we are in.
5. The test was withdrawn from the USA market but that's because the FDA have withdrawn EVERY LFT stateside and it would be refused anyway.
Now despite the above, do i see any upside in the SP at 72p well yes i do. It all rests on the £ 912m government order for LFTs because we are the only country stupid enough to use these in an incorrect way for mass testing.
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W53/741867528
However, this order has been pending for three months now whilst its evaluated and if a more accurate rapid test is released they wont get it. Also there is no saying they would get all of the order anyway or any sizable chunk of it, its a risk. This is why its a "punt" not an investment. IF they win a big chunk of that order say £250m they need to be able to manufacture to deliver on it. If you recall they won a 1 million volume order of antibody tests in October but could only manufacture 25% of it. This contract has a 6 week delivery window from 9th February so fairly tight time frame. How much stock do OXD have ready to go?
So in conclusion:
If a big slice of the £912m lands before the end of this then the SP could rally
If none of it lands or they secure some and can't deliver then the SP absolutely tanks and it will be brutal.
I declare that i hold a mere £ 6k of stock in this so its of no importance to me but as i say, i see it 100% as a punt not a serious investment but if lady luck is on my side and i can turn that into £1

I read the various comments on twitter earlier.

If the National Audit figures are indeed correct, then between May and October they did 236m. We know from the H1 results that they did 72m first half and June was 25m of that. They were confident H2 would exceed H1.

I accept this is a very crude calculation but using a very, very rough guide just averaging out H1 first 5 mths without the DHSC at 9.4m and adding in the above would give us 72 + 236 + 56 = 364 m

We know for a fact other business was won and there is also a possibility of further contract business in that second half. So, if that data is right the minimum amount could well be north of 364m and more likely north of c400m.

I am now of the opinion that Shaun’s figures could well be right at 489 m or more

Either way, worse case scenario, results will break both broker estimates by a minimum of at least 20% and more likely will completely blow them away.

If this proves correct, we are in for one hell of a result….

GLA

@ShaunP
I notice that DNA Nudge were awarded a 11 month £ 161m contract to run from 1/7/20 to 31/5/20
the updated ticked:
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W50/740491588
They had a further £ 3.3 m adjustment for NPC testing
Do we know on the ground floor how these compare to our Q machine with PROmate? Are they still competing for the NPC testing business?

Since then there has been nothing really major awarded other than:-
Optigene £ 323m for LAMP tests
Surescreen contract for LFTs
AND the Thermo fisher contracts specifically on the Labs side.

Obviously the RI getting over excited currently about that £ 912 LFT order waiting to awarded ( OXD holders think its their's) but i'm not so sure yet, it has to go somewhere i guess??? unless a more appropriate alternative is out???
Then we just have the big elephant in the room the 22bn

It would be great if we can pick something up from 1 February for sure... We must hear something soon???

That is another issue with our SP being so low and not reflecting our true value.

If we want to acquire US assets which would be useful for our worldwide expansion, we are having to pay the full market rate yet the same can't be said for us.

I would love for this to move to the NAS and ditch that French listing. 70% of our trade is done in France yet as far as i know we have very little business there. well certainly not any government contracts that's for sure.

Lets see what next week brings....

If you see this post

Go on, I'm genuinely interested, pacify me... are you saying you are trading it on the waves, £100k in £ 105K out that kind of scenario??? picking off a small percent? shorting the other direction?

I'm curious because as the stock hasn't got a formal PE ration or at least any proper valuation that must make trading it very risky? would you be prepared to share some of your entry/ exit points??

Take care

LMOL
Lets hope i'm reminding you that i called £ 54 short term before H1 results are out....
Take care now
Pork's

@HarChris
Look i do agree that further contract work with the DHSC would be welcome, if anything it would bring a step change to the SP with a secured two year contract. I'm just saying that its not the be all and end all.
We are doing millions of revenues in global sales. The markets in America, Middle East and Asia-Pacific are just taking off as our network expands so i'm just not concerned. With an established PE ratio the business should be worth well north of where we are today anyhow.
Time will tell

@Oriens1
Take your point... spending to many hours batting off short-termists
Sooner we get out into the £25-£35 range the better,
Frankly, I worried to death that a player like GSK is going to walk in and try and take this out on the cheap at say £ 15 offering a 40% premium to the closing price and us retail being well and truly shafted. This is the real risk. especially with feeble short term holders after a quick buck.

Hi Kaeren,
Interesting if a decision is made on the 28th, so maybe a few days after the trading update is out...
Its one heck of a big contract, in four lots:-
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W45/738328646
I mean that's what you call an order, lol

@B2hS2L
I have stock at £ 11.50 from towards the previous high in this business so i'm aware of manipulation but there was nothing then to back up the SP. A bit like ODX its market cap is up yet again today yet its half year results were down 30% on last year and its yet to make a profit. Punters are speculating that it will win some of the larger LFT orders.
I believe with NCYT whilst we will see SP swings, that's the nature of the stock market, the SP will ultimately go one way, i don't think we will see sub £ 10 again frankly.
My Short term target remains at £ 54

@Oriens1
"Up to £18 and down to £10 for a few weeks"
What utter b@llocks....
This is not some covid stock doing next to FA revenue like ODX, its a diagnostics group of real substance that could be on the verge of actually delivering (not talking about might be's) revenues of £ 300m for 2020 and forecast of £ 1bn+ in the next FY.
So whilst the SP may go up or down, that's the market, ultimately the SP should reflect its fundamentals.
At the current time the SP doesn't reflect that because its revenues are not yet proven.

I would suggest, if you don't have confidence in this business you probably shouldn't be holding the stock and should sell.

Have to say I'm hopeful for a solid trading day today.

Time will tell if its FOMO Friday with investors getting in ahead of Results or if some will sell or sit on their hands waiting for a more certain position to be confirmed???

Either way with so much going on I much prefer to be holding than risk being out when we finally do start to see news flowing through.

Not long to wait now.....

GLA