Member Info for Porky9

+6% in France 12.76
High volume at 11 U.K.

HI Kaeren,
Only had to fend off the one nutcase during tonight's shift... the usual known troll...LMOL
Agree with you all the way, they have made some fantastic calculated strategic moves to date. I have full confidence in the BOD and its been further strengthened recently as they prepare to move towards mid cap status. Brilliant.

That's an interesting find in the Guardian.
They are right to halt the testing using ineffective LFTs for sure but, I'm pro testing as long as its proper tests being carried out. Hopefully Novacyt will have something soon that can fill that rapid test gap.

@Ravenox
You are already being drawn into distraction, the poster is proven to draw debate then try and discredit the achievements of the business. Not buying it. Avoid at all costs.

Also, I don't agree regarding your assumption on values what so ever, as you would expect, especially regarding DHSC 2. If you do some research you will quickly see that it would result in a major step change, not a 20% or so adjustment as you state. To clarify the point, the first phase order was 300 units which was £ 250m initial kit value but will generate something in the region circa £469m in total from associated products and services over the period.

The phase 2 is for up to 700 units so much bigger in size, it has a potential of over £1 bn value in total value including the products and associated services hence, why it would result in a step change in the SP.

The business is on course for about 1.2 bn in 2021 anyhow from worldwide sales as it stands ,so if some of these larger contracts land on top, such as phase 2, and i see no reason why not, you could be talking well north of 2bn sales and some during the 2021 FY!!

So are you going to tell me that its market cap will end up less than its annual revenues? i don't think so....

I firmly stand by both my short term and long term SP targets but obviously make your own investment decisions.

@andrewba
I do get where you are coming from but the LFT's in the market are just not up to the standard and after the FDA decision to remove most of them stateside, i can't see them making much of a come back now?

Now if Novacyt do release one in Q1 it needs to be something special. As i have previously said, if there is a market demand for them, then might as well add it to a Novacyt distributors order as give it to someone else, the old "do you want fries with that order" example BUT it then comes down to them being manufactured in volume cheap enough and what margins can be achieved?. Its more of a stack em high, sell em cheap product line but if Novacyt can get extra revenue in from it and it can be managed then i guess why not?
I'm more interested in the LAMP test they are working on, I think this could this be something to fill that gap left by the LFTs.
Interesting....

Funny is not it, was not so long ago, it was commented that I was losing credibility here over my wild SP prediction and yet now the dots are really joining together…

Fellow shareholders and investors are starting to think, Pork’s may well be onto something here..

My position tonight remains £ 53 short term, £ 100 longer term by 2021 Results. I don’t care what de-rampers or short termers think or if anyone disagrees, I’m sticking with it and will be proven right. I am totally convinced.

Now, I obviously do not know what the 2020 year is going to come in at, but I am confident of revenues 250m+ and the I do not know what the forecast for 2021 will be but I am confident of at least 600m and in both cases these are likely to be wildly exceeded.

Then we have the possibility of numerous contract awards that will materially add to the 2021 forecast, we will likely win some of them imo, we cant fck them all up and that is not considering revenues from any acquisitions made this year which will also strengthen our position.

Today we have just witnessed a small acquisition by Thermofisher, in the week we have seen the valuation of similar companies within diagnostics, from SourceBio, EFK, then Abcam all rated materially higher than we are, and it become blindingly obvious now how ridiculously low our valuation is. Even a Dutch publication today put the valuation higher. We just need to deliver the results and let the numbers do the talking.

Then we had the FDA withdrawing approval on a bulk of our competitors stateside, a major shift in attitude towards our gold standard and then we have our major peers all confirming that revenues 2021 to 2024 are going to remain strong further endorsing our long term earnings potential.

Result’s out next week are just the start frankly, it will tell the market we are a serious contender, a contract win will give the SP an immediate step change but make no mistake this company can and will become a top five player in the Diagnostics sector at £ 7bn+ business valuation, this is history in the making.

This company possibly offers the greatest level of exponential growth we will see this decade. I am not just bullish; I am a proud holder of shares in this company. They are world class and making real difference at this most difficult time.

What is there not to like

GLA, the fun hasn’t even started yet…

@triumph1
I am just going to ignore you and suggest everyone else on this board does the same.
Go back to AVCT stock with its £350m valuation (half of ours) and its £5m of annual revenue and £15m of losses and convince them over there its the real deal. We have ZERO interest in your de-ramping posts.
Go away you are a distraction we don't need.

Article out in the Guardian referencing findings in Israel after one vaccine shot:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped?

Please God tell me why oh why are our government constantly going against proven scientific data at every turn?
We waited months and months for the vaccine data to be released and results of 95% protection were clearly based on the data groups having the second dose exactly 21 days after the first to boost the antibodies.

So based on the proven facts, its fair to assume that if you replicate the exact doses at the exact same time period the patient is 95% protected. The Oxford vaccine approval was delayed because they needed more data on half doses and time period so its clear that this was VERY important data.

But NO, what do we do?, lets ignore that scientific data, lets get a higher volume of people half protected, do half a job and leave it three months and see what happens having NO actual scientific data on the effects of leaving the second dose three months and now data is coming out confirming 52% protection.

I'm personally bloody annoyed about this for totally selfish reasons, i genuinely thought if i can get this vaccine asap and my booster, with 95% protection i can start travelling again, perhaps over to somewhere warm at Christmas etc, that's now looking more unlikely.

If we vaccinated the entire UK population, which won't happen, on the current three month basis for your second shot its means that half people that have been vaccinated will still likely catch COVID and pass it on we will never be rid of this dam virus. Urgent policy rethink required.

@Kaeran
You are so right (for a change lol) initially it was practically a "done deal" that schools were going down the LFT route. What is encouraging is that the £912m LFT contract is still not awarded. I appreciate they are reviewing other tests but the FDA pulling practically all LFTs must have some bearing on our government decisions now?
They are like a rabbit in the headlights, desperate for a rapid test but equally the penny s dropping that the inaccurate test results have likely contributed to the mess we are in.
It will take a special kind of moron in government to sign us up for more inaccurate tests.
A sea change is occurring.....

@Rogerthatsir
LOL - I meant £ 35 to £55
Take Care

The Long Term Target remains at £ 100+ its going to happen, take time but its going to happen.

Only factor stopping this is if one of the big Bio techs gets in with a cheeky take out offer before we see it...

GLA

-0.04 on the Bourse so -2p UK

A fair bounce back from -45p hopefully bodes well for going into tomorrow, time will tell

GLA

For those not following...

Phase 1 was 300 machines £ 250m contract and Phase 2 is 700 machines, that one contract is more than our current market cap, that's how undervalued our SP is.....

Don't see why it shouldn't be awarded, its the best technology in the market and with PROmate easy to use hence less training requirement.

Really looking forward to full year trading update...

GLA

"A new workflow going by the name of PROmate is being introduced through the NHS which speeds up rapid PCR testing even further, deactivates the virus and removes the burdens of manual pipetting for staff. The safety this freeze-dried reagent workflow provides will enable Novacyt to roll out rapid high-throughput testing across the world without the installation of class II medical cabinets"

"This is a big deal for diagnostics as currently there is a trade off between speed and accuracy which PROmate will close the gap on."

Oooh Interesting....

Certainly a lot of noise around Phase 2 being triggered all of a sudden,,, also a mini run on the SP which backs that up.

Phase 2 would be a game changer I was laughing earlier about chartists and +30% tomorrow but if news did drop of phase two, we will move into the £35-35 trading range and some almost immediately imo it's massive...

I was expecting at least -50p down today as well. Could end up being a blue close.

GLA

@KerryG
Don't look at things like that, you will go blind..
hahahhah

ooh is that what it is...
well that's another blessed relief
ROFLOL
You take care... I'm still laughing... I'm must be more immature than i thought...
hahahahahahahahah hahaha a mole rat, is that what you call it these days, hahhahahahah
crying....

@bladesharp
Often wanted to ask Dean, what is that a picture of on your twitter Avatar? looks like a ***** from a distance, although could be my bad eyesight?

@troublesome
"Wonder what will happen if the German variant meets the English or U.K variant ?"
Is that a bit like when our Grey Squirrel met the Red Squirrel?

I bloody love Chartists;

Apparently we have a PENNANT in UPTREND resulting in BIG MOVE INCOMING and all the lines point to £ 13.65 tomorrow.

So you can rest easy tonight knowing that its going to open at £10.50 but moreover it going to climb + 30% on the day + £3.15 and close at £13.65. How about that then ?

Well that's a blessed relief I can tell you :)

IF that happens tomorrow you can sign me up on the next available course;

Obviously we are all wondering if the phase 2 will come our way or not in February. I know the brokers see it as a "Step Change" in the share price. With the market so big and demand so high world wide, it's no longer essential just that extra cherry on our cake !!!

My gut feeling is that if they have sorted training and they are getting the test volumes then no reason for the DHSC not to just continue. likewise award us the care home contract. With kits in high demand anyway its not like Novacyt can't sell the kit elsewhere anyhow, it just saves us a job of finding lots of smaller orders :)

However, what i did notice on tenders is that there is little movement on any contract, just small stuff being awarded:-
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/medical-consumables/?region=UKI#743309311-741802019-67

The daddy of all LFT orders, the one sitting at £ 912m has been moved from Nov to Dec and still has no award showing.

Meanwhile, a couple of small LFT orders have gone for evaluation which makes you think either the government are holding it back because the penny is dropping that what's out there is no good and they are evaluating a couple of others as they are desperate for a rapid test OR they are waiting for something better.

Sooner we get our LAMP test out the better, i think if we can get this in the market with a decent accuracy level and more importantly ease of use, that's the difficult bit, i think the product line could absolutely fly off the shelf now. Not to mention stateside now they have pulled LFTs.

Interesting times