Member Info for Porky9

No news about... nothing....

I think a few scratching heads over the sudden 60p mark down from about 4.15pm

No specific sales volume, nothing to indicate anything otherwise. I think most of us here thought the move to SETS would create greater price stability clearly not. They can manipulate the share price just as easily now as they could before by the looks of it.

See what tomorrow brings

I have managed to see the FT article (not behind paywall now) :-
https://www.ft.com/content/7c0d1d5b-f746-4c50-9513-05d1b6ee27b1

It's basically just an LFT from Surescreen Diagnostics Ltd:-
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03235601

The article claims they are the first UK company to produce them. It states that there were two UK tenders worth £ 912m issued. Also says current LFT stocks run out in February and they come from China (Innova) cant see Government buying more from Innova after all the negative press but you never know....

Business based in Derby lost 200k on its last year and is an absolute minnow although if it can secure a slice of that massive tender it will do ok but then again does it have sufficient capability to scale and deliver if it did win any of it?.
So i can't see how that news could possibly effect anything. Meanwhile, NCYT have their own LFT about to be released anyway and realistically the market is that big that if government still want LFTs going into 2021 there s more than enough room for this supplier and another ten!!!
Happy hunting

We know the reality here. We also know that absolutely nothing came out in the last 15 mins of trade today that could affect the SP. we all know what's in development and NCYT have own LAMP test in dev. IMO. It was clearly well placed shorts to quickly drive the SP down and kick out a few stop losses along the way with no time to react or encourage knee jerk decisions.

Not concerned about shorters frankly, the good news is that the moment news of a contract lands and all those shorts get kicked out on the way up. so FCK them. Surprised Triumph1 hasn't popped up with some pearls of wisdom :)

Anyhow, this is a journey not the destination and we still have much travelling ahead

GLA take care

In the last 15 mins:-
from -2% to -8% 60p erratic not sure where its going to finish
Don't really care frankly as I'm not selling only buying
Wish i could time some of my buys better lol but if we all knew that there wouldn't be a market...
GLA

A Very good detailed article in the Lancet regarding the efficacy:-
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32623-4/fulltext

I think if Oxford had been just left well alone to properly evaluate the data, continue trials and then push out the final findings when ready rather than rushed along with the vaccine First Quarter 2021, this would have significantly better for public confidence.

I still have every confidence the oxford team will pull this off for first quarter and i will certainly join the que. I much prefer the Oxford traditional vaccine construction to the RDA new technology used in both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

Oh and if Novacyt can run the testing alongside ohhhhh - no ramp intended (NOT)

David,
My best advise to you would be NOT to buy.
If you are in any doubt about a share investment you keep your money safe in the building society or in premium bonds or stuffed under the mattress if you prefer. Nobody can give you any guarantees on any stock.
For me personally, I'm adding as and when I can afford to my holding. I have done tons of research and own the stock at various prices. A big block i own was in the £10-£11 range. I consider it practically a once in a lifetime business with exponential growth potential at a level i rarely see but that's my own call. I'm holding long term for an exit north of £ 40+. On the flip side, Equally if I lost the money i can afford to take the hit if i had to but, that's my personal call.
You on the other hand need to do your own research and make your own call. It also needs to be a long term decision imo at least 12 mths.
Short term the SP is volatile, its on the AIM and there are no guarantees in this world.
Good luck whatever you decide.

I couldn't actually see an award date specified and if they will announce some of the lots first or not or even in what order. In my experience they normally write to those that were not successful first. Not sure on the exact number of tenders either but i bet there are over 100 to go through.

Patience...

Patience is a virtue,
Posses it if you can,
Seldom found in Women
Always in a man...

Thought i would share last weeks poem again as it was so popular last time... LMOL

GLA

@Colinfleming
Agreed but what's going on is a major £300m estimated contract headline is agreed but you then find its actually in phases over the next year or two and the true value not know as its dependent on various conditions being met at stages along the way. All comes out in the wash eventually :)

Really interesting Saintsmith
Why would you need a Vaccination program operations director if you wern't looking at antibody tests that could be used in conjunction with the vaccines.
2 + 2 together, I don't think so... could get interesting soon.
I think Oxford Vaccine is scheduled First quarter? So guess we will find out more soon enough

I think its key not to get lost or carried away too much in revenue projections for the set of results to the year end due soon.
I'm not sure on any government contract win what payment terms are like, usually they are slow payers in my experience and major contract wins now over a 12 month roll out period may not result in an immediate capital hit to the accounts but will show during the next financial year.
2020 year we had £72 million in the H1 with bulk in second quarter i know, if they averaged the same in H2 that puts the full year at about £200m. Yes we have some great wins and yes it could well come in higher but if it came in above 250m I would be amazed frankly. As i say its not contract wins now, its what can be recognised from an accounting perspective in that FY.
2021 FY on the other hand could well end up being a £Billion Revenue+ year specifically as a result of contracts that could be won that are currently under tender.
If you are looking at NCYT as a stock to hold for the long term, its less important what's reported now and more important what the forward revenues are looking like.
I can tell you that my exit SP is £ 40+ as I believe they will become a mid cap market company (£2bn to £10bn) and i think its possible by the end of 2021 FY if this level of exponential growth via trade and acquisitions continues.
GLA

@Saintsmith
I did also wonder about the recruitment posts where they wanted candidates with vaccine experience. You might just of hit on something here. Now that would be something. game changing almost....
Also, totally agree with you that the AZ Oxford vaccine is a likely pairing.

That's what i love about this board, the occasional gold nugget of information like this to keep us retail ahead of the market.
Superb find and Brilliant post - Thanks

For any newbies that didn't read Tay's update yesterday:-
https://novacytinsider.com/novacyt-december/

NEWS POSSIBILITIES FOR NOVACYT: DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY

* Microgen Tender Award for ‘Pathology and Point of Care’ £20 Billion Tender Award share
* PrimerDesign Centralised Lab Contract Renewal
* Phase II DHSC Unlock
* DHSC Contract for Community Settings
* PrimerDesign £22 Billion Testing ‘Framework’ Tender Award share
* Private Testing Deal announcement – Travel and other settings
* Antibody LFT and LAMP launch alongside Private/Public Deal. Possibly mobile LAMP too.
* New Device from IT-IS.
* VersaLab™ partnerships and PROmate™ PHE news re: non-lab settings.
* Second Q4 Acquisition
* Unknown surprise reveals – International Tenders/Sales Updates/TR1’s etc

As if that isn't enough, Tay forgot to add the major Spanish tender that was submitted recently and we still don't know what is going down stateside. Any major contracts in the US or via US partners could well dwarf all others frankly...

I think its going to really hot up here soon..

GLA

@Shaun
I just picked up on same, don't think its work subscribing to IC, i never found it that beneficial when it was only available as a monthly magazine....

I can't access it as I don't subscribe to IC but i believe they posted a buy recommendation today.

Previously, they published at the start of November a post effectively saying that any break out of the £ 12.60 range would be a solid buy indication.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/11/05/novacyt-the-rocky-road-to-riches/
Back then the advice was:-
"For now, wait for the stock to break out through its previous high at 1260p, or wait for a breakdown to go short at 800. Let the trend dictate the trade"

If you are into all that charting business it looks to me that the short is out the picture now for sure as we have broken the £9 again, a low level break of the £9.65 line will see us move towards £ 12.60 and the £14.60 lines fairly quick. Time will tell.

Either way its more positivity for us

Want to see this trading in the £ 12 to £ 16 range before major news.

I genuinely believe it has the capacity to multi bag from this point forwards,,,

@Kaeren
Issue is that its become political. They want good news story. In just the same way our government forced Oxford imo to rush news out on the vaccine before they had evaluated all of the data. On the Thursday they were saying we wont have data evaluated until the end of December at best, then the very next day it was all over the media it was 70% effective. just so happened to be same day Bojo was giving the update on the new lockdown tiers.

@Starn
I totally disagree with you
Kaeren has made a number of essential contributions to this forum, without these we would all be in the dark. You on the other hand have just shown up here on this forum and started to criticise the poster.
It is down to members to review and evaluate what is brought to this forum, do their own research and share with the community the results. The content is not always fact, some is useful ,some is utter cr@p, some is funny, some is not - this is what makes this forum so rich.
I would hate for a poster to fear posting something here that they find on the net that could turn out to be gold material taht needs exploring further

That is just awful.
I haven't seen any mainline press coverage on that yet but just horrendous if it is confirmed. Anti Vaccine brigade will have a field day.

shorts were .48 and reducing.
This push might just clear them and hence helping push us that bit higher.
I certainly wouldn't want to be short that's for certain.

For me personally its not just the R&D into different diagnostics areas its the fact that they are building a far reaching network worldwide of resellers, partners and distribution agents. This means that if they acquire even a small business with a strong product, or launch a new product line, they can immediately push the products out worldwide via that distribution network.
Exponential Growth potential with Novacyt is at whole different level to anything i have ever seen frankly. This is a once in a lifetime stock. Long term hold.
Potential