Member Info for Porky9

Good luck with your short position... NOT

I fail to see what part of this you don't understand. An effective vaccine and Diagnostics are not mutually exclusive. As vaccines are rolled out, we will still need to continually test people to see what they have. Testing to see if they have covid, flu, influenza or anything else.

Covid is not going away anytime soon, we have to learn and adjust to live with it. The virus is more likely to become like another flu type illness with annual vaccinations IF in time it proves that once a year vaccination is enough, we don't even know that yet.

Novacyt is a UK success story, you should embrace that. The UK is now having to build a diagnostics network as this area was previously neglected. Novacyt are at the forefront of that.

Why do you think investment funds like Blackrock are continuing to add at these levels.

Lets see what happens next? This is a worldwide business with a long way to go yet that's for sure. There are a heck of a lot of deals currently in negotiation, it only takes Novacyt to secure one of them and your short position could quickly turn very expensive.

Just want to also add... something that was highlighted by Robert Peston earlier tonight:-

800,000 Doses are initially expected and you need two doses per person 21 days apart.
15,500 Care Homes in England

However, there are 975 Doses in a case which is too many for the average care home hence, wastage and we can’t break down into smaller cases as the regulator hasn’t approved that. As JVA said its not a "Yoghurt" you can take in and out the fridge it requires careful planning.

Logistically we need to plan which care homes you can get around to well in advance. How quickly they can get hold of it from Pfiser and how they distribute it, not to mention the take up rates will be key to its success.

We also need to ensure that those that have the first jab remember to come back 21 days later for the second dose. if they don't that will also add to wastage. Anyone with any kind of mild side effect could be put off from having the second shot and this could also affect conversion rates. The reality is that the challenge to get this right is enormous.

It would take us until the middle of next year to get around to all groups if everything runs smoothly but even then we will need to adjust to a different way of life after. It won't be back to how it was before as we still have to learn to live with this virus.

Finally, this is the UK and we are moving fast, we are the first county to approve the vaccine (albeit with the liability guarantee) there is still the rest of the world to go.... Unfortunately there is still a lot of hype, the media really do like to talk this up with us approving it for use first but, as i say this is a big challenge ahead of us.

When all factors are taken into consideration, it wont be an easy roll out, we will need Diagnostics established and ongoing testing in the UK permanently no matter how well progress goes. Novacyt are the front runners, ultimately there is only one way for the share price to go from here imo and that's to a significantly higher level than where we are today.

GLA

The guardian have just published a really article on this same subject. This time in relation to LFTs being used for the student Christmas break:-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/01/uk-students-tests-coronavirus-testing-university-false-negative-results
Says it all frankly

Look, we all know that the LFTs are a bloody waste of time. Even Elon Musk took four LFTs and two came back positive and two negative. Where you get a positive result with "Test and Trace" with an LFT they send you for a PCR test to re-confirm. We previously discussed the fact here that over in France its the other way around. If you test negative with a LFT you need a PCR test to confirm you are clear!!!

Despite the above, Bojo knee jerk ordered 20 million LFTs from Innova (China) right at the start of the pandemic. They know full well the accuracy isn't there , that's why they are only part of a mix not the total solution but i guess they need to get through that stock unless they can get a refund? although they are that cheap it will probably cost more to ship back to china than they are worth...

As for using them seriously, care homes, front line etc, etc, it isn't going to happen. At best only as part of the mix as i say. It would be total lunacy to use LFTs any other way, the technology is just not reliable enough.

After the vaccine fan fare this morning about how great it was, and to quote “an early Christmas present” I thought the update during this evening conference was extremely negative.

What I took from it was that it was still going to be a logistical challenge, the vaccine wasn’t something that was going to roll out “over weeks” it was going to “take months” and he was very clear on that.

He added that the initial consignment was going to be 800,000 and it was going to be challenging not least due to the process but also because it was in set quantity per box that had to be used. He referred to it not being “a yoghurt” you can take in and out the fridge it needed specific process lines set up. You needed two jabs 21 days apart.

The most vulnerable and front-line health workers would be first. It was going to be well into next year before others could be vaccinated and care homes are not likely this year. He was truly clear that we still did not know the effectiveness and if a vaccinated person could pass on the virus because we were still needing to collect data over period and this will take time.
Lock down was going to continue into February at least, we still must be incredibly careful. Join local testing programs in your community to help us beat this virus.

They have as good as confirmed that although a positive its still going to take a long time before we see any real effect. He also made it clear that this is something we are going to have to live with, he didn’t want to draw comparisons with flu but felt it likely this will be with us a very long time.

Frankly, Testing is here to stay, if anything, I think the SP could well rise tomorrow as the market starts to realise this is not a silver bullet after all. In my considered opinion, he gave us a real dose of reality tonight which was refreshing compared the previous hype and fantasy we have had to put up with so far..

LOL
See the desperate messages from shorters....
Bet when that RNS landed they were in panic mode, fortunately for them it was confirmation of Black Rock adding, next time it will be a contract win...
I would be very uncomfortable now going short now... they need to close positions quick otherwise its going to get expensive very quick, lol
GLA

Lets think about this for a moment...

Everything is out now on the down side;
Vaccines are out, vaccine news well and truly covered and some, its all about the deployment and effectiveness of vaccines now over the long term. Hate to say it, but further news now on the vaccine side is more likely to be negative than possitive, delays on roll out, issues, lower take up rates, less effective etc, etc, let's face it we struggle to deploy the flu jab each year effectively!! It won't have an immediate impact on business either, that is going to take time well into the second half of next year imo. It makes me smile to see pub stocks up nearly double since March yet they are all still closed by me and trade restricted on the ones that do open!!

On the up side;
I won't real off the endless list of aspects we already know about in the pipeline for Novacyt but its one massive worldwide market out there. If I was taking bets, I would say news from Spain the most likely followed closely by France, the USA and then possibly the UK once our government finally wakes up and stops risking lives with LFTs and other such nonsense.

In my considered opinion, these prices wont be around long. I wouldn't be surprised if a substantial order landed takes the SP immediately into the £ 12-£16 range.

Feeling both smug and confident as a shareholder today.

GLA

AS i keep saying only so much juice you can squeeze out of an orange.
The SP here has been absolutely hammered by vaccine news, constant repurposed news day after day, today’s was yesterday’s news before it was out, already expected. Im amazed the SP has gone down at all today, I can’t see any reason for it frankly.
Other stocks have lready been boosted by the vaccine news, its how the businesses perform now going forward,I consider it still rocky, 20,000 job losses yesterday

Is it to early to start singing.....

"Oh this year Novacyts off to Sunny Spain, y viva España
PCR products being loaded on the plane, y viva España
If you'd like to chat with a matador, in some cool cabaña
The Spanish will need our tests by the score, España por favor"

LMOL

To be fair, this is probably as good as it gets for a LAMP test. Not at PCR Gold standards yet but far better than LFTs effectiveness that's for sure:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/clinical-evaluation-confirms-accuracy-of-lamp-test
"The OptiGene RT-LAMP (loop-mediated isothermal amplification) test was found to have a sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 100%, meaning the test is effective in identifying the cases who are infectious and are most likely to transmit the disease. In samples with a higher viral load, the sensitivity of the test increased to 94% for saliva and 100% for swabs"

Meanwhile, according to the notes from Tay we understand Novacyt have their own LAMP test about to go live in January:-
"20 Minute Covid 19 LAMP Test"
"LAMP tests are excellent high throughput, low cost and fairly accurate ways to detect Covid 19 and the UK government has made it a key part of their Moonshot program. Optigene has had success here with validating their test earlier in the year and now Novacyt will launch their own version as soon as January 2021. The surprise move will boost Novacyt’s offering into the lower accuracy, but rapid bulk testing market and uniquely, customers will not have to make a choice between kits, as the LAMP test is designed to be used in the Q16 and Q32 devices"

Probably take with a pinch of salt as its reported by the mail:-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9006249/NHS-volunteers-signed-help-shielders-April-trained-DELIVER-Covid-19-vaccine.html
Gawd, can you just imagine it;
"Hi Mrs Smith, remember me, I was the driver who delivered your prescriptions in march, good news i have your Pfiser vaccine in this dry ice smoky box, hold out your arm please. Don't worry i have a BTEC in applied science and i have had the training if anything goes wrong just in case you have any adverse reactions, so you are in safe hands"

Apparently, it reports that they have 1,500 signed up already and need 30,000 volunteers.

@Wilson63
I recall we discussed Optigene a few weeks back:-
SME based in Horsham. 11 shareholders incl 2 PSC Michael Andreou and Dr Duncan Clark (Directors)
No employees other than Directors
Net Assets to last year of £ 1.6 m, profit YTD c£500k

Without doubt it will have two major obstacles to overcome namely: no direct control of its manufacturing process; this has to be outsourced and subsequently; no direct control over its quality control.

If the business is to scale its one thing perfecting a LAMP test, full credence to them in that regard (no mean feat in itself) but its another thing to then scale with it; manufacture, quality control and distribution issues, all kinds of things can go wrong especially if you are relying on another party without a vested interest. If manufacture is going out from China God help them, half the boxes will be empty, lol

What they probably need if it isn't already established, is a solid UK partner like Novacyt, it would probably make a good fit with Novacyt if the company were open to it. I can't see it being of interest to bigger players as they would probably need sales north of £10m and profits of £2m a year to get even close to being on the radar. As i say, the issue then is that if they don't actually directly manufacture anything trying to scale will be one big headache frankly. All the same clearly two smart guys at the helm. One to watch.

As expected if you want out of TIER 3 support your community mass testing:
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/01/funds-for-mass-covid-testing-offered-to-local-authorities-in-tier-3-
Unfortunately they are still pushing LFT for the first stage of testing but if that draws a positive test result you then get a proper PCR test to validate the result.
Its a start....

We can expect the SP to climb as shorters will now be closing at a rapid rate of knots in fear that the Spanish order may have legs.

“ Burn baby burn, Disco Inferno, Burn baby burn”......

@Jimmyfking, you and triumph1 need to Quick - LMOL

@neilrich3
LMOL - I was ok until you mentioned the twitter bit :)
Time will tell
GLA - we could do with some breaks here

Tell you what if that's true happy days... we wont care less if the DHSC take more machines or not. PCR is the only way forward, makes total sense. Staff training is probably better organised in Spain ? If UK hospitals lose out to Spanish ones and the stock goes and we have to wait longer to roll out in the UK i will totally blame this government. In the UK we need to get organised, crack on and train the right people and less dam excuses and stop dithering.

I have been banging on for weeks about the dire results from LFTs and the obscene "false negative" rates but for whatever reason the government has been focused on mass cheap tests and the "false positive" rate and continued roll out of their Innova LFTs. Thank God that finally the penny is starting to drop.

In a Care home setting the use of an LTF should not even be considered at ANY level. Its a no brainer. It only takes ONE visitor with a "false negative" and they will kill all the residents. its too big a risk to take imo.

I don't like them used on mass in Moonshot either but, at least a positive test will result in a PCR test, but god knows how many with false negatives are going on to infect elsewhere. In France its the other way around as we discussed here recently. if you have a negative LTF you need a PCR test to confirm the result.

Councils smart enough to see this are right to stop this going ahead. First time i'm in total agreement with council policy.

To solve this, I don't see why all residents can't be tested once a week in the care home via a PCR test and IF a visitor wants to visit on a specific day they come an hour earlier, take a PCR test and await the result before being let in.

A short delay on visitors and significant risk reduction, if it were my mum or dad in there i would be more than happy to wait. Safety first in this situation. The alternative using an LFT doesn't bear thinking about.

A duel listing has its advantages.
At least with the bulk of our shares traded on the French exchange we get the perspective of what's going on at ground floor level in France. If Novacyt start securing orders in France or they get wind of worldwide deals before us buys on the French side start to rally first.

Unless Novacyt publish a negative RNS tomorrow morning, which I can't see as being likely or required in view of the government response, then any MM shaking will be very short lived. They already shook out stop losses on the last bear raid so i don't see it frankly and shorter's could get burnt very quickly. The reverse could happen and the SP rally if a positive RNS is issued of any description so its a risk going short frankly imo.
GLA.

These are the official results published on Friday 26th November for the entire Test and Trace data for the period to end of 18th November:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-england-and-coronavirus-testing-uk-statistics-12-november-to-18-november/nhs-test-and-trace-england-and-coronavirus-testing-uk-statistics-12-november-to-18-november

Moreover, here are the specific results for PCR (this specifically concerns Novacyt) published at 4.00pm on Sunday 29th November - right up to date:-
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

You will quickly see, cutting to the chase that:-
1) They are testing at more than double the capacity since they started
2) Testing result times from labs are reducing, they are improving the turnaround times by just over 10%
3) The PCR Target was 500,000 and on Sunday it was 533,800 hence they are ahead of target.

So clearly, the labs roll out are improving efficiency, capacity and results turn around times with the gold standard test and it stands to reason that NHS labs will do the same as the technology becomes more familiar, staff are up to speed on training and it becomes further embedded.

The facts speak for themselves.

Absolutely not, You have zero clue or any ounce of credibility.
I have to question why anyone would want to visit a share stock board, not as a shareholder but as someone with a vested interest in de-ramping for some strange odd reason? I can only assume as part of some two bit shorting syndicate?
And as for BOO, i am not a shareholder. I have evaluated the stock a few weeks back and considered that whilst it's business model is fundamentally sound i think its badly run by its board, signing off major bonus levels and share awards without shareholder approval, support from its auditors refused to deal with the BOD which is a concern and frankly I consider it a moral risk. But that's just my opinion. Novacyt on the other hand is a well run business with solid and respected BOD.
I won't be buying shares in BOO anytime soon until it has a major board of directors change but if that's your call, in the nicest possible way, FO over to the BOO board and discuss that stock you own, rather than come to this one and waste your time, you don't even hold the stock for heavens sake.