Member Info for Porky9

It’s already out there and the government know it that the vaccine is not the golden bullet first thought.

It may protect an individual but it’s unclear until significantly more population data is established if someone vaccinated can pass on the virus. Also, unclear how long protection will last ie 6 mths or 12 mths. Then add that the logistical nightmare of vaccination roll out. It will be two years before we see any result.
Testing is here to stay for a long time

Somehow don’t think they will pull the same stunt twice and downgrade on vaccine news which we are all already expecting. But I feel if they do, I couldn’t care less, I have no stop loss and this time I will add to get back what I was robbed of the last time.

If we break £12 next stop looks to me to be £18 then north to £45

Can you save any celebration until the SP is at least £25 and they have made it to mid cap status.
£15 is certainly nothing for me to shout about that’s for sure.

These rapid tests out so far are not accurate.
I specifically detest the fact that HMG purchased a truck load of the sh@t from China (innova Order) and are using them on the basis of knowing they are not accurate and false positives / false negatives are somehow acceptable. They are not.
Meanwhile, further research out recently is proving that the accuracy level is nothing like that stated by the supplier.
We should either test people properly in the first place or not at all imo.
As for Musk taking four tests and finds that 2 say one thing and 2 say another , you may as well not bother!!! at that rate you may as well guess as its 50/50 - Joke

Will repost, think the LSE algorythm doesn't like the the name of our secretary of state Matt Han (member) LOL

Part Four

Q. If you are not in the vulnerable group do, I still need to stay in lockdowns? If 10 m are being vaccinated ca the rest, then party so to speak?

A. Look we still don’t know that even IF you have the vaccine IF you can still transmit the disease to others, so we can’t lift the measures on just the people with the vaccine as you may give it to someone else. So, we need to protect the most vulnerable first, roll it out and continue to monitor transmission rates. This is the best way to return to normality.

Q. Are unpaid care workers in the list?

A, we will follow the advice, cannot guarantee but hopefully yes

Debate starts moving onto Brexit and pollical waffle, the vaccine expert re-confirms that six vaccines are at various stages of development but manufacture, distribution are consideration and safety comes first but the two flagship vaccines are the ones under review.

Q. NHS relies on sub contractors to carry out the work, are there enough lorries to distribute, will lorries be held up in lorry parks, will it really be sorted?

A. We are trying to plan for all these eventualities. We have done the work to ensure the -70 storage. providing all goes well, including the safety aspect comes through, the manufacturing on time from Pfizer going well, we are planning to able to start as early as start of December.

Q. The cofounders of the vaccine have already said not before mid December, so you are not on the same page?

A. No I say, we are planning to be ready in December but we are not guaranteeing that by any stretch, we are not there yet but we can say we are making progress towards it but many hurdles still to go over.

Part Three

Q. Do we know what other countries are doing regarding the vaccine, will there be supply issues after Brexit, Is Matt underestimating the supply and distribution I mean even using the example of the flu vaccines this season we have already seen pharmacy’s and surgeries running out of stock having to wait months to get stock in. Worth repeating Proof John Bell of Oxford University who said life could be back to normal after the spring providing, they do not screw up the distribution! Is the storage and distribution infrastructure in place to do it?

A. I was asked can we do it and I said yes, we can. Is it going to be an enormous challenge, of course? It is the biggest civilian operation in history, but we can come together and make it happen.

Q. I am sorry Matt but its just a bit facile when you say things like yes, we can, as you have heard we still have issues getting out the flu vaccine. You blow £500 million on PPE that didn’t work, we know its been 9 months and 12 days since the first infection in York and yet as one of the sixth richest economies in the world still don’t have a successful track and trace system. So, its about public confidence, storage at -70 you can understand why people are nervous, so its more likely we will be well into next summer before this vaccine is properly rolled out.

A look its not can I do it, its can we do it as a nation, we do it together. Just like the social distancing, is doable, not easy but its doable,

Q. (asks audience if anyone is nervous about taking the vaccine); I am, I feel its rushed, it hasn’t had time to be properly tested; you look at thalidomide, are we really aware of the side effects? I am one of the cautious people would rather wait and see the effect on others first; there are trust issues around the vaccine, in some surveys as many as 25% unsure, we need a campaign around trust perhaps if you Matt have the vaccine first and then every other MP has it, we wait two weeks and if everything fine we roll it out to everyone else.

A. (Fiona) I see, so if he does not drop to the floor frothing at the mouth sort of thing, we then know its safe! (Matt Han****) I would be happy to do that but I cant go ahead of the que because of clinical need, perhaps I can take it when health care workers do as long as I’m not jumping the que if that is going to help persuade others and give confidence

Q Straw pole: hands up who thinks Matt should take it first (c80%) so quite a lot of you clearly think he should go first. I know some are keen to take the vaccine, but some are very nervous about it.

A. (vaccine expert) People suggesting waiting and see what happens is probably a common response but do remember vaccines are the single best prevention that can save lives. No regulatory authority will approve this vaccine unless its safe but remember the risk of a severe outcome from COVID-19 far outweighs the risk of a vaccine. Once people start taking it and see its safe, I am sur

Part Two

Q. You did not mention the UKs BME population which we know is proportionally more at risk or other key workers? You have not clarified if its less than 50% or more than 50%.

A. Look IF the vaccine comes off, we will hope its more than 50% but we can only know once we publish all the data, but we first must ensure its both effective and safe.

Q. If people can pay for it will they get it first?

A. I don’t think that will be possible, its hard enough buying it as a government and the deals those that have developed it have done are on the basis of a government buying for its population according to clinical priority.

Q. Is the storage and transport of the vaccine in place. This is complicated because you need these super freezers to keep the vaccine at -70 degrees, Scotland has already purchased loads of these super freezers are you really going to be able to pull this off?

A. YES

Q. Oh you sound confident, I remember you saying that about PPE, it would all be sorted for that weekend and it was not

A. Look the UK is buying this vaccine and the others, so we have a portfolio and buying for the whole UK. Then the NHS in each country, England, Scotland, Wales, NI is responsible for the deployment. It is a challenge and incredibly difficult, transport and storage as mentioned but also the manufacture, which is the really hard part, these things are hard to manufacture.

Q. You are nit responsible for that, but you are responsible for who can get it

A. Yes but its hard to do the science, hard to manufacture, its not a chemical made this is biological, then it arrives and you have to keep at -70, we have known this for a while so the NHS has been getting hold of the serious deep freeze, then you have to distribute it. It will be a huge effort on the NHS supported by the armed services. It will be complicated and a huge challenge, but I am sure the NHS is up to it

A (vaccine expert). We need to recognise the enormous excitement surrounding this vaccine, but there are a range of vaccines coming through which could have different advantages in deployment. Right now, we are working on this Pfizer being the main one that is going to work but we may have a different conversation in two or three weeks. But the main point here is that roughly 10 million of the UK population in what we class as the most vulnerable category and if we were to start vaccinating those in January, given that it takes five or six weeks to get immunity, if you did a million people a week we wouldn’t get that 10 million vaccinated until way into April and that’s only if everyone comes in for their first shot and then the second shot on time and you are not playing catch up. The logistical problem is immense, and people need to understand that is why it will be prioritised.

Part One

For those that did not watch the show earlier the following is the transcript from the Vaccine questions and answers section. Unfortunately, its not going to be the golden bullet that many had hoped for. I only wish I had been in receipt of this information prior to our share price mark down: -

Bottom line Testing will be here to stay imo.

Q. How many people do we need to have the vaccine for it to be successful? What percentage of the population are we talking about?

A. The honest truth is that we do not yet know. Many things we do not yet know. We test how effective they are for the individual and how safe they are and if they pass those tests, we can then roll them out. Early data from Pfizer vaccine shows its 90% effective against an individual so IF it passes the safety data, this is a big hurdle it still hasn’t gone over, then we can start rolling it out and it should start protecting people after the second dose.

Q. So what we do not know Matt is will it be 50% of the population or 70% of the population we are still not there?

A. That’s right, because we only know if it protects an individual and you can only find out once a lot of people have taken it what the direct impact is on stopping the spread of the disease.

Q. This vaccine, we do not know if it stops people actually catching coronavirus, but we understand it stops them getting really sick from it?

A. It is really early, we know it prevents disease for the period of time its been studied but we don’t know if it will protect people for six months or twelve months and we have no information about whether it will prevent transmission. So, this means its first priority is to use it against the vulnerable populations.

Q. Can the government confirm it will be distributed on clinical needs?

A. Yes, that is our proposal. We have a committee set up consisting of science experts and this group looks at the data. They have been doing this with both the Pfizer and the Astra vaccines, the two early contenders and works out the best clinical way of protecting most people. The interim recommendation being vaccinate the most vulnerable and the health and social care workers first and then essentially come down the age range. Age is the biggest single factor by a long stretch. So yes, we will vaccinate according to priority as this saves the most lives.

Q. Head of the vaccine task force said only up to 50% would ever get a vaccine and that was before the Pfizer announcement, is that your anticipation? sounds like it from what you are saying.

A. No not necessarily we have learnt more from data on the vaccine and we know it will be in order of the most vulnerable as described, then down the agree range until the under 50s but not children. Its not be tested on children nor designed for children who are less likely to get it anyhow.

A capital gain is only a gain if you sell
So don't sell, hold for a few years, there's a radical idea???
Meanwhile, its only proposed. Normally they rumor high tax levels and then come in half way like its some kind of favour. You will probably find they will up it from 10% to 18% or something like that.
Time will tell, just have to hold longer to make more to allow for any possible tax increase :)

@troublesome
Only issue with that is when you dig into the detail you find that its not fully tested, distribution is challenging, it needs at least two shots to give any protection. It may not last long and will require regular repeat shots like the flu jab and take up rate may be poor. Already only less than 40% are interested. It could also take up to 9 months for any critical mass if we are lucky. So we are into September next year at best - i don't see it being the magic bullet and the market knows it.

Meanwhile, IMO even with the most effective vaccine possible, 100% and 100% take up you would still need testing until the end of next year to establish if people are still contracting COVID and lets face it, we can safely say 100% protection for 100% of the world population wont be even remotely possible - even the Russians with their "92%" Sputnik V vaccine arn't dreaming that high!!!

Posted this after market close for adult discussion. These are my reasons for adding at close to £9 and why I will continue to add and believe the SP will reach significantly higher levels.

Bear Argument: -
• Vaccines with 90% protection will be the golden bullet and eradicate COVID
• Mass Vaccine Roll out will reduce testing needs
• 7 Vaccine producers in the Race with two close or ready to go before end of December
• Cheap lateral tests from China driving down the test profit margins
• NCYT Revenues will be short lived
• New technology could overtake PCR technology
• NCYT may fail to scale up production to meet orders

Bull Argument: -
• Vaccines may only last short periods and take up rate may be lower than expected with many refusing the jab as not fully proven. Even with high take up rate it would take at least 6-9 months to gain any kind of critical mass at best and even then, testing will still be required.
• Testing is here to stay for at least the next two years and some
• WHO states 60 million front line staff worldwide tested once a week equals 3.1 billion tests a year? Then you have care homes, essential workers, military the list is endless.
• WHO states 4.1 billion air passengers a year alone and numerous country’s now will only accept fit to fly via PCR Test. Big testing market just in this vertical?
• Put all the Testing companies together and they will still struggle to meet demand
• At £ 9 a share the market cap is seriously undervalued in relation to the suspected order book although details not known until end of first year results in Jan
• Rumour that production has been further significantly scaled up to meet increased demand
• Numerous updates due which may confirm significant progress in due course.
• New virus strains already out, bird flu outbreak today, minks transmitting covid again new tests required the virus could still mutate in which case vaccines less effective and more tests required.
• They are highly innovative and already working on further product ranges
• NCYT objective to become a mid cap business (2BN to 10BN company) this means an SP £25 to £125 Range.

For me, the big thing here is the solid management team at NCYT, they know how to scale. They are building a war chest of cash this means they can acquire and diversify into different types of diagnostics. Meanwhile, data around some of these cheap tests are proving how poor they really are. Taking all things into account, we witnessed the smash and grab on the SP this week however, cream always rises to the top. Having evaluated all sides of the argument the upside imo remains huge. As such I will continue to add.

If anyone wants to counter any of the above, feel free but I am holding now for at least £40. I genuinely think my risk factor is not a vaccine it is the company being acquired as a diagnostics division for one of the big boys before we get the SP recognition we deserve to see.

GLA

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, my portfolio is spread and I am into other high potential shares. By the time I returned from work and started evaluating what was going on here the SP had already started to bounce. Unless you are watching the SP 24/7 you can’t know. Work gets in the way !

Anyhow, stock locked in now, no Stop loss

Jesus, it’s a vote a vote of confidence if ever there was one

He could of cashed in half a mil, had a new kitchen and brought the wife some breast implants but instead he took the shares instead!

(Apologies to the PC lobby )

Just a note to newbies
I had a £6 stop loss with HL and they sold £33k at 598 of my holding when the share price tanked - to recover that position im paying now £9
The mark down imo was overdone and was to shake out anyone with stop losses
This is a good lesson in when a stop loss can work against you
I didn’t have to share this information but it might be helpful to some. I have now removed all stop losses. It’s eithergoing to work out or be my biggest write off of the year
GLA

And can i just add, it matters not if the shares are part of his package, if he wasn’t confident in seeing solid upside in the sP from here the RNS today would be saying acquired and sold on the same day to bag him a half mil cash bonus!

Have to hand it to GM that’s a vote of confidence for you - brilliant

Just out

Apparently it’s a brilliant vaccine 90% protection but it gives you a hard on all day.

LMOL

Thought we could do with some humour here in view of the stressful ride these last few days

GLA

Although it was a low level buy at £ 7.15 what it did do imo was tell the market that adding will be financially beneficial and the director has confidence in upside from here to the share price.

Clearly the market liked it

The only other point to note was on the massive fall we did have support at the £ 7.00 level, one for the history books this stock. Just shows you that even on SETs the MMs can still fck about with the SP

GLA - Personally I need a significant increase in the SP from here to make up my losses