Member Info for Porky9

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20201031-slovakia-to-test-entire-population-for-coronavirus-in-global-first
Worldwide demand for testing per se is just going through the roof, all hands to the pump. At this rate it won’t be a case of “who supplies tests” it will be more like “who has stock” - crazy

I think it’s all hands to the pump frankly, we need as many tests as possible so I would say it’s a nobrainer to extend the contract to the max testing capacity.
Although nothing is certain, if I was in gov I would spread it out to get the job done, it’s clear to me that demand far far far exceeds any capacity currently in place

I don't think anyone expected the exponential growth that NCYT are delivering, its certainly caught the market out for sure. This is one incredible well run blue chip Diagnostics business.

The way i see it is that if a new Diagnostics coy with established revenues can come to the AIM on effectively a PE of X46 and then at the top end of the scale a pharma like AstraZeneca can trade on a PE of X99 its doesn't take Einstein to quickly establish that NCYT at £ 10 on a PE just slightly above X1 has serious upside.
If the H2 comes inline with expectations or above then we have to be looking at a material increase in the SP from where we are now. The issue is that the market doesn't know, its only now waking up to NCYT
The broker note from Numis with fair value at £13.50 and blue sky at £35+ i think is already out of date. If its true that they are adding deals like the Romania contract at £2m a go and secure orders on the new Winterplex product range or even an extension of the NHS contract then this this stock is sure to fly from here.
Recent days have proven the stock is not for the faint hearted. swings of -20% and +20% can be stressful. IMO best advice i believe is to invest, switch the computer off and come back in a year. At some point the stock has to reflect fair value to its revenue and in time that will happen.
Good Luck

From .gov

Locations of the laboratories

We currently have 5 Lighthouse Laboratories operating across the UK which are set up at Milton Keynes, Alderley Park, Glasgow, Cambridge and Newport. We also have additional Lighthouse Laboratories in Charnwood, Newcastle, Brants Bridge and Plymouth coming online over the coming months.

In addition to the growing Lighthouse Lab network, there are partnership agreements with the public, private and academic sectors. This includes Antrim Laboratory in Northern Ireland, and laboratories at Birmingham University, Imperial College London, Queen Mary University of London, Kings Health Partners and a partnership between Health Services Laboratories and University College London

Also:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-lighthouse-labs-to-boost-nhs-test-and-trace-capacity

This reconfirms the objective to process 500,000 tests a day via that network by the end of October. I think i read in alternative articles that they were claiming they will meet the objective.

Not yet, I only have confirmation of the two centres, i have emailed AZ but no reply yet, probably unlikely to reply to a "joe public" question if the roll out of lighthouse labs program is confidential.

I could do with knowing someone in government lol :)

100% agree

This is why we ended up with pallet loads of PHE equipment from China that wasn't fit for purpose and had to be returned!
And why the bloody French are buying crap from China the mess they are in is beyond me. Wouldn't surprise me if they have to rethink if the orders don't get completed on time or even work properly!

I think the "logic" if we can call it that, is get thousands tested and well if its only 80% accurate and 5% false positives it at least moves testing forward quicker rather than 24hrs for lab returns and we may pick up those contagious quicker.

In reality, NCYT have the tech now to deliver a rapid response that is close to 100% accurate further winterplex can show if the individual has anything else but are they aware?

If someone can now wake up to that we can get through this a lot quicker. NCYT have a track record of delivering what they say.

The only saving grace is that the testing demand is so seriously high worldwide and not that many companies can meet any demand so NCYT would probably win orders by default anyway.

If we could get an update on any orders from the company or progress to date in some format, even if just to confirm they are still on track in H2, it would seriously help.

See what next week brings, GLA

“Every Bit Helps” LOL

This one Contract is worth more than the entire annual revenue of Omega Diagnostics in one hit. The potential of NCYT is just on an entirely different scale

Couldn't agree more
That's where Winterplex comes into its own, test locally straight in machine within three mins tells them if you have cold, flue, influenza, Covid, whatever it is etc etc. truly amazing kit.

@andrbea
Jesus, that's horrendous, its going to be a case of every covid testing facility known to man being used flat out at this rate. Demand is now far far far out striping supply...
I read yesterday that the UK is at 100,000 cases a day and doubling every 9 days currently
Its a real worry

magmanus,
I don't doubt that those masks could kill the covid virus but equally i don't fancy breathing in all day pathogens from the chemicals the mask is douced in. Not one for me that's for sure.
Good luck with your investments

It was the legitimate article yesterday which had to originate from somewhere?. It was proven authentic but it only named AZ as one of four other likely suitors.
On the basis that AZ are in Partnership with NCYT on the lighthouse labs plus the Saliva and other testing products they are already in bed with NCYT. Hence if the speculation is true, has any legs, AZ are probably the most likely.
Possibly wild speculation, time will tell

If shareholders are not selling price has to go up?
Whatever the case not for the faint hearted
GLA

Having done detailed research i sold out my ODX position, took a small hit on it and moved it here so obviously my view point is biased against ODX
They compete in the sector and there is no relationship as far as i know , unless they are in anyway sending samples to lighthouse labs for processing or something like that but unlikely. They are not in the same league as NYCT and the recent results with revenues down and L&G pulling out by the look of it? doesn't look good to me, i wont be buying ODX in the future that's for sure.

They will need as many testing deals done as possible, clearly we are well short on capacity at the moment.
No brainer imo to award NCYT the other 700 and extend the contract, it can only help with this problem.

Speculation of a takeover by AstraZeneca is likely to get picked up this weekend by the local press so that might also give the SP a push on Monday.
Also, the big elephant in the room is if we finally do get any update next week on orders, contracts extended, winterplex, carehome contracts etc etc, that would also give us a push in the right direction.
eitherway, I can't imagine anyone wanting to be out on this stock going into the weekend that's for sure. Lining up something lovely now for the next push into the £12 to £16 bracket.
GLA,

Only thing interesting about that is its supported by guess who, AstraZeneca who coincidently are partners with NCYT.

Not making 2 and 2 equal 22 but the more i see stuff like this the more i think that the no brainer of a market move would be for AstraZeneca to acquire NCYT. I'm hoping that doesn't happen because we have so much upside here and if it did we wouldn't materialise full value imo but, if i was on the board of AstraZeneca this is what i would push for.
Its all linked and fits.

I have spent the last couple of days looking at all Diagnostics related stocks listed in addition to all the information we have that is proven in an attempt to value this stock.

I think we can all agree that due to the amazing success and rapid growth so far of this business the market has been unable to properly put a valuation on NCYT. The only broker note we have is the one from Numis giving £13.65 as fair value and £35 as Blue Sky and this is already out of date.

So, this is my conservative calculation: -

I mentioned last week that SourceBio was listing on the AIM. Now this is a Diagnostics Testing business nowhere near the quality and level of NCYT, not even in the same league but what we do know is that it was properly valued we assume, its shares were oversubscribed and it came to the market on a market cap of £ 130m.

That business has confirmed revenue of £20 million and an EBITDA of £ 3 million so we can roughly say that the market valuation for this Diagnostics testing business is valued at over 6X Revenue or 43X EBITDA.

Meanwhile over at Omega Diagnostics it has confirmed revenues of circa £10 million and was loss making in the last year but also has a market cap of £ 135m so in this case the valuation is even higher.

NCYT on the other hand delivered £73 million in the first half and an EBITDA of £ 49 million and expected its second half to be stronger than the first half. So even if we use a pessimistic view and say that NCYT only does the same in the second half, yet in reality we already know its secured countless worldwide orders, then applying £ 150m Revenue and £ 100m EBITDA using the same valuation metrics as the above two the market cap should be over £4 bn or in our case north of £45 a share.
Now if someone wants to tell me where I am going wrong here, I am all ears, but this rough calculation does not consider any of the current wins or product lines, winterplex etc etc. If I use the £500m+ sales estimate that we think it will be, the valuation gets even higher!!!

For me I’m just going to ignore the day to day swings of this SP and let it do what it does because if this company isn’t seriously valued at a significantly higher level than where we are today for a blue chip like NCYT there is something seriously wrong with the market.

Good Luck all

Having done detailed investment research on this stock I’m very satisfied in its long term potential. Probably didn’t time my last top up well 200,000 at 10.25p but hey you cant time it right all the time. Main thing is I can use this period to slowly add to my position.
SP will likely drift now imo until we hear on any further progress but It’s one to lock away and the potential upside is gigantic if they get it right as far as I’m concerned
DYOR GLA

Anyone’s guess frankly:-
Bull Argument: I think most would expect this to be north of where we were before the crash ie £12+ going into the weekend but if news drops of additional orders then we should be advancing into a much higher range.
Bear Argument: price starts retreating, still uncertainty on if further projects are won, nervous investors and day traders sell on small lifts.
Anyone’s guess really. personally I’m a buyer at this level as I think the long term prospects of the business are sound but the share price movements are not for the faint hearted
#Ballsofsteel

Revenue as its repeat business, with winterplex installed for example you need to keep buying the tests as far as I know.
If you are using EBITDA the company listed has an EBITDA £2.8 m
Whichever way you cut it that’s a £3bn value for NCYT or £40+ SP
Of course this is all speculation anyway, I’m just sharing a current example in this exact same sector