Member Info for Porky9

Hi Tay,
Appreciate all your efforts and work here - exceptional thanks, massive fan of your work!!!
Recurring questions here and ADVFN tend to fall into two camps first, any light on these would be really useful:-
1. Care home testing was going on in trials during Aug-Oct - did anything come of this. Do we know if there are orders in this sector. The radio silence has led to assumption its a dead line of sales?
2. The national program of testing Moonshot, we were all surprised that HMG went for cheap saliva testing kits via Innova. It looks like a number of testing centers are doubling up and where a positive result are then referring to the NCYT PCR testing any chance NCYT can pick up more of this contract/ do we know what extent they are supporting Moonshot? . Its frustrating HMG are promoting a saliva test that isn't even accurate and produces many false positives. One reported suggested if 1% was false testing and people were tested once a week as many as 40% could have false positives - you couldn't make it up! any clarity here would be helpful?
For me i would also like to know if possible:-
3. I understand capacity to be 10 m a month. Can they subcontract manufacturing out in anyway to meet even higher demand? Can they partner with other manufacturing facilities?
4. Are they doing any white label deals or co-brand they can share with us. We are seeing a number of different providers selling kit and when you dig down you find the certificates or kit looks identical so its clear its a NCYT technology.
5. they mention rapid tests and i noticed the saliva test they have, how far off proven are these and is it likely they can get in and take more of the national testing program.
6. Finally, i read about France not agreeing the reclaim of costs hence the products going into private sector only. Is
there a chance the french will re-visit this? And if so what would NCYT need to do to move this on?
I don't expect them to win every deal but if they have capacity to supply every order counts
Any of the above would be nice to know for sure
Thanks in advance

Not interested in short term movement as I’m not not a day trader

With a market cap less than its order book it’s a matter of time before the share price reflects it

£40+ is my price target

Those that missed Tay's tweet from earlier today:-

OCADO V NOVACYT

OCADO
Mcap £18 Billion - EBITDA £60 million

NOVACYT
Mcap £790 Million - EBITDA £250 to £400 million

And in 2021 #NCYT will double revenues if not more.

Says it all doesn't it. We just need to remain confident, sit back and let the figures do the talking. At £ 10 SP we are on a PE of about X1. Even new listed testing companies are coming to the Aim market on X46.

Surely has to come a point when the SP properly reflects the value of the business. I think that time will on the journey to the full year results in January. I think that's why Blackrock are buying in.

I remain totally bullish. GLA

@Squidge
I totally agree, you just want to bang the heads together of politicians buying cheap lateral flow saliva tests from Innova (china) when the dam pandemic was started by china and the tests don't work properly. The Innova tests are Not for people without symptoms, another rush decision. They should use a quality test in first place :-

"Rapid or "lateral flow" tests need high levels of the virus in the body in order to work. It is not yet clear how good they are at catching people in the early stages of the infection when the virus is still taking hold. Meanwhile, False positives - when you don't have the virus, but the test says you do, are also a bigger problem when you test large numbers of people. A twice-a-week test for six months using a test with a 1% false positive rate would lead to more than 40% of people being wrongly told they had the virus."

The positive out of all of this is that despite the above, I understand that they are actually using a mix of tests and in a high number of cases where a lateral test confirms a positive, its then being clarified by a PCR test.

As i said before, all testing suppliers will likely see a boost as the demand now is so high it will struggle to be met and that's just the UK, its a worldwide issue. We have no choice but to use a mixture of tests to try and get on top of this pandemic.

Novacyt is so well positioned, H2 results are sure to exceed expectations imo. Screaming buy imo.

GLA

Just want to thank you for your time afforded and dedicated research - first class

If you ever research any other company to this degree you can count me, Numis should be paying our consultancy fees frankly. You are doing a better job than are

Thanks again

Wow, wow, wow, that really is something
Superb research guys,

Thanks Chas, I hadn’t read SP Angels Analysis

So it looks to me based on the SWOT analysis if every competitor sent every test they could manufacture there still wouldn’t be enough supply to meet the massive demand and when you take rest of the world into account it’s a real issue.

Looks like 10m capacity a month could get used up and NCYT are going to need to increase manufacturing capacity by either another acquisition or sub out for support elsewhere

Either way, screaming buy at this level. They will be a mid cap £40+ player, matter of time imo

Blackrock i consider to be one of the top funds. Looks like they have run through the figures and can see the upside.
They will likely increase their position imo

OCADO V NOVACYT

OCADO
Mcap £18 Billion - EBITDA £60 million

NOVACYT
Mcap £790 Million - EBITDA £250 to £400 million

And in 2021 #NCYT will double revenues if not more.

Says it all, just need to remain confident, sit back and let the figures do the talking

The end quote says it all:-

"It is one thing to get the technology to the point where it is approved and it can be used, but then you have to be able to make it in sufficient numbers - it's no good if you can only make a few."

The lead time is 6 months at best, it needs significant funding to get there and Novacyt are already there!!

The demand for testing is now, supply from all providers cant meet demand. That is why even the covid stocks like ODX are going up in value and they are not even in the same league as Novacyt.

Great Find Wilson

So Novacyt in the free testing program in the UAE

Just shows you the power of NCYT in every world market, just amazing

You just need to give it time, switch your computer off and come back in January

The business is absolutely sound, solid order book even if H2 is inline with expectations we have to be looking at a material increase in the current SP. The business is undervalued and any positive update on orders will see a serious run on the SP with shorter's burning in hell.

Good luck

FO Shorter’s you won’t frighten us into selling out

It’s on a PE ratio of circa X1 at £10 its materially undervalued

Trading Range moving now to £25

We mustn’t lose sight of the fact that it’s Covid causing the market issues. This is the one stock in your portfolio to add to as it’s the one company that will help get us all out of this Covid nightmare.

I remain Bullish as this is the only company I have every seen with exponential growth of this magnitude

£40+ by end of Jan- Run with the winners

GLA

Those not read the update on Noacye Insider yet should review it.
https://novacytinsider.com/nov-recap/

With the scale of opportunity ahead for Novacyte a mid cap valuation is well within reach.

US Market at 56 Bn it’s a case of all hands to the pump frankly, demand for testing now at levels that supply struggles to meet

GLA

For those not already seen this, it confirms the journey of the swab test under NHS testing via the labs network:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-how-we-test-your-samples/nhs-test-and-trace-how-we-test-your-samples#automation-and-technology

@Snowking
That was exactly what I read on Friday. They recognised that the cheap saliva tests produced false positives and didn’t have the accuracy but they helped identify someone as a possible Covid case quickly and they were then referred on for a PCB test to clarifyy

Obviously loads going on at Novacht regarding orders of various sizes which will all support the Share Price, but I guess the biggie for me outside of Winterplex, care home contract etc, the one that will really light the rocket fuse is the DSC Contract.

If the DSC Contract gets extended to a further 700 machines and i don't see why its shouldn't, this will seriously help push revenues further. If this lands, coupled with everything else going on Novacyt I'm revising my end of year Share Price prediction to £ 40+ that's how bullish i am about this companies prospects.

In my 30 years of buying and selling shares i don't think I have ever seen a business with this level of exponential growth since the invention of the silicon chip. Appreciate these are unique times I grant you but ,even Elon Musk thinks Diagnostics is where the revenue is? Crazy times.

DYOR GLA

If you haven't read this already, its a superb recap of where we are now:-
https://novacytinsider.com/before-the-q4-ramp-up-gets-underway-its-time-for-a-recap/

NB. A mid Cap share price would be north of £ 30 and I remain incredibly bullish we will see this
GLA