Member Info for Porky9

There is NO court case
Its a dispute we already know about that is being worked on
Its in neither parties interests to drag this on.
It will either settle no change, DHSC will pay what's due or worse case NCYT have to credit note them for some of Q4 sales and some of Q1.
They still delivered £35m in Q1 non DHSC, they still supply NHS direct under the framework, H1 will come in north of £ 100m in my opinion and that's without the "significant" future sales from LFTs due to be released (Antigen and Antibody) , they have expanded premises and recruiting more staff !!!

Meanwhile, Themo Fisher just paid £550m for a similar business doing £45m of sales all year !!!
Our market cap is currently £255m
I'm sticking with it for now, todays mark down was from an existing damaged SP position, its been overdone.
GLA

@ShearClass
Wow, the board has been trashed tonight by de-rampers with no real vested interest in the stock. Perhaps the shorting syndicate having to go to the lengths of hitting LSE to encourage sales? Many new created accounts we never had a message from before.

What is interesting is that we opened down on the news , what looks like an increased short on the Bourse at open BUT next to zero retail sells all day on the French index. The trade has been absolutely FLAT. Have a look everyone, minimal sales all day:-
https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/FR0010397232-XPAR

Meanwhile, we only have 72m of shares in circulation and on the AIM it has also been fairly FLAT, there has been ONLY 2.2m of Trade volume ALL DAY. Split fairly roughly 50/50 buys and sells. I was actually a buyer today and a few investors on twitter i know were also buying.

Currently there are 1.1m of short shares that need buying back and nobody selling.

I actually think that those who want out were probably already out prior to this update today. Also, todays update didn't really tell us anything we didn't already know. A kind of non event as far as i'm concerned, it's the same dispute the SP was already trashed over. We are already down to fire sale price levels as it is and the II's are not selling!!!!

If you are a genuine holder here and NOT a day trader, shorter or have a desire to encourage people to sell, i think the consensus is probably to stick with it a few more weeks to see the ACTUAL position, see what the audited accounts come out like, see what impact the range of new products are likely to have, see what the H1 comes out like, we know they did £35m sales in Q1 that were EX DHSC and see what the forward statement comes out like. Then make your call.

As i said this morning. I am not selling one share. Having come this far i'm not dumping my investment until i know the confirmed facts. If come the end of June, early July the H1 and forward statement come out and they are total trash, I will review then. They have taken on extra premises, a massive recruitment drive and imo these are not the actions of a business in distress about to close the doors which is what our Share Price implies.

The road has been rocky, sentiment towards the company on the floor, lets see what they do about it.
GLA

@Bluelight
Its both frustrating and a real shame as the business has so much going for it.
I posted a while back that i thought once the audited accounts were published and we have Full clarity on the actual proven earnings for 2020 and clarity of the balance sheet that a bigger bio would make an indicative offer to acquire subject to DD. It is a total no brainer now. Its mcap is down to £ 255m.
Just Ridiculous

@Bluelight
Initially they didn't know how to rate it and it was on a cash basis.
Look at the early interviews with S P Angel.
That basis has not changed. Once audited accounts are published they will have proven revenues to rate against. That is how i see it. The position is still not clarified until published and the DHSC adjustments known and clarified.
By the end of June latest this position will be 100% clear imo
Not long to wait now on this and a number of other matters.
At £ 255m mcap i will take my chances - its a joke value no matter how you cut it

What's interesting is that on the Bourse apart from 400k sale at open which could be a short, unknown. Its been flat all day.
Zero activity, next to no sales.

Not sure what the AIM looks like but its starting to look like this mark down has been well and truly over cooked.

We covered this a few weeks back but just want to remind SH of that deal:-
https://www.biospace.com/article/thermo-fisher-buying-molecular-diagnostic-company-mesa-biotech-for-450-million/

They paid $550m to acquire the private listed business Mesa Biotech. The business provides POC PCR tests and its revenues to the year ending 2020 were $45 million.
So we are talking about x12 Revenue and on Thermo Fishers books it will be worth a lot more!!!

Can i just point out that Novacyt delivered £ 72.6m just in Q1, removing all DHSC we are at least £ 35m and the year will come in at something like £ 180m if not higher should the LFTs in Q2 also take off.
Our market cap is currently £ 255m - its a bloody joke.
On that basis we should be north of £ 2bn value ....
But you take my point... The SP is being crushed and some... its just not right here....

I am reading some of the comments reference GM here but can i point out that the Regulatory News Service is for factual disclosure of events that may affect the share price or require statutory disclosure.

GM is completely handicapped in relation to what he can officially state here because of due process. If just one invoice in Q1 DHSC could be affected as part of that contract order he has no choice but to state so. It would be an offence not to disclose.

Now what would have been better imo is if on the 9th April he had just said " Dispute with DHSC could affect business transacted" it would of covered this off and avoid this double hit which is what this feels like. We are being hit twice for the same situation!!!

There is a 2020 year end dispute evidently regarding DHSC business during the last quarter that has spilled into quarter one. Now that is going to get settled in one of three ways imo:-
1. Contract stands, minimum buys stand and DHSC has to pay up
2. Status Quo - no changes to either party
3. DHSC win - A refund or credit note against transactions

So ultimately, what's the worse case here? well frankly a refund or a credit note against future sales. It really isn't that big a deal. It will get resolved. Crikey, if i had a pound for every dispute DHSC gets into i would need to invest in Novacyt!!!!

IF GM could say the dispute is about over order or pricing of Y and they want to offset £ 20m against trade completed or could give a set figure he would and we would be better for it. As it stands the market have downgraded this beyond worst case scenario.

Frankly, i'm holding on it strong and just raided the piggy bank for a small £4k top up. I would like to do more but other funds committed for now but i do feel this situation will right itself and the current SP and macap is just bonkers in relation to fundamental vale.

Remember , this business delivered £ 35m Revenue NON DHSC in Q1 - it has a heck of a lot more to give imo

Good Luck whatever your call

Pork's

Small ADD at 363 - situation will right itself shortly imo

@MacTrader
100% agree
Also, we don't actually know what amounts are involved from the DHSC contract is it all, half a fraction. The share price is being priced on worse case scenario.
It could end up a) allowing us to invoice more if minimum contract values are held up b) agreeing a credit if we lose and that could be against future stock not necessarily an actual cash invoice refund or write off against future payments on account.
I'm fairly relaxed here frankly, its an over reaction and some to news we already knew about.
GLA

@crl123
You are very right of course
However, just remember that if you are short, at some point the stock needs buying back and this will need to occur here soon. Further, we are in a period now very close to clarity on many aspects.
The mcap currently doesn't correlate to the fundamental value anyhow and once we get that clarity shortly the gap will be even wider.
You can trust me on this, i am probably sitting on one of the biggest paper losses in this stock than anyone here, that's not bragging rights, lol, my position is currently dire, However; a business takes time to build and as i posted earlier they are doing many, many things right here and as such the Share Price will ultimately reflect that.
Currently this is a distraction from all the great things they are doing right. Todays further share price crash from an already ridiculously low value point is obviously frustrating BUT its not an insurmountable problem , it will get resolved and fairly shortly.
Take Care
Pork's

RNS standard wording Disclaimer:-

"The information contained within this Announcement is deemed by the Company to constitute inside information as stipulated under Article 7 of the Market Abuse Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 (as amended) as it forms part of the domestic law of the United Kingdom by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (as amended). Upon the publication of this Announcement via the Regulatory Information Service, this inside information is now considered to be in the public domain"

So i want to know why yesterday when buying activity was going well right on the closing bell on the bourse a 50,000 Share sale was put through. I really don't buy into coincidences, it was a material trade and right on the close.

As such it should be fully investigated for insider dealing. I suspect that the RNS was being processed or translated into French late yesterday and that shareholder was tipped off and they sold on the closing bell, hence insider dealing.

Due to my obvious vested interest in this stock, i have a very close eye on what trading is being done and that one last night stinks frankly and sticks out like a sore thumb. It should be investigated.

Look its easy for posters to come on here “after the event” and criticise others. Not to mention shorters or traders as Bluelight says, predicting x percentage down, seen it all before.

I really do not buy into this “Two profit warnings” cobblers. It is the same dispute, the same DHSC dispute that the market has hammered on the share price already from a previously low and very weak position. I just wish they had said in the original statement "may affect DHSC revenues" per se to avoid revisiting this same issue as if its something new.

Its frustrating as hell that yes, with so many brilliant things going on in the business that this cloud is still overhanging them. That is the tragedy here. A focus on sh@t caused by the DHSC instead of everything else the business is doing right,

But whichever way you cut it, if you took 100% of all DHSC sales away the enterprise value of the business is still materially higher than where the share price is now.

They just delivered £ 35m of sales in Q1 ex DHSC and that is before you factor in everything else ongoing. The business is doing fantastic, its growing, adding more staff, massive expansion plans, amazing product range, amazing R&D, its got second gen products about to launch - there is just this DHSC blip overhanging..

As it stands, I will await the outcome and the full picture. When we get this resolved and the full picture is clarified there will be a marked improvement in the share price. And for this reason, until then, I am holding in and will give them the space to resolve and prove what can be done. Not long to wait frankly.

GLA

@Fun-time-swing
Thank you for joining for the first time ever?
If that is true that is your decision and good luck with your future stock buys

For me and i have a decent holding here, I'm sitting on a massive paper loss BUT i'm not selling one share, I have confidence in what the business is doing and its position on the world stage in diagnostics. They delivered £ 35m in Q1 sales NOTHING to do with the DHSC. It's mcap is down to £260m.

Sorry but this dispute is fully priced in and some...

@Soder
Totally agree
This is the point isn't it really, the mcap was already under the real fundamental values BUT a number of retail traders don't look close enough at the figures to even see that, it's a punt. They are not interested if it delivered zero sales or 100m of sales. This is why we see some of the comments here.

For me, i will await the full audited accounts, see what the sales come in at for H1, look at the full picture and go from there. At the moment i am NOT selling one share, already well and truly priced in. As a bonus the Big shorts may close shortly now they have extracted massive profits because frankly at this price its already fire sale values. I would say a hostile bid now also a likely possibility.

Just to state my position
I am NOT selling one share and i will explain why:-

1. Unfortunately, due to this being a dispute they are handicapped from providing full details as it may disrupt due process - this causes us retail shareholders loads of anguish as we remain in the dark
2. I still consider the dispute to be down to the DHSC over ordering at the start of the pandemic and i stand by this
3. I still believe that the dispute will resolve in their favour as have numerous other current DHSC disputes of a similar nature .In which case it wont be an issue at all.
4. During audit they have probably found some invoices from Q4 and some late ones that have fallen n Q1. We don't know for sure if its 1, 10, 20 or 100 invoices. All we know is that it has to be declared by regulatory news.
5. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, if they had said initially, we are in dispute over the contract full stop, i believe the mark down of the market cap here wouldn't have been much different frankly. I consider it fully priced in.

What we do know for sure is that they delivered £ 35m of sales in Q1 that had nothing to do with the DHSC and everything else that is in progress.

You have to make your own call here. Todays news is NOT great but they have to be clear, they cant say DHSC in Q1 isn't affected if it turns out later some invoices were in Q1 that related to last year.

Personally i just hope this can be resolved soon as i would prefer a flat case of this is the dispute and its either settled in our favour or settled in DHSC favour and a refund agreed rather than a provision put in the accounts when published in a few weeks time.

Finally im not interested in shorters, vultures of any one day visitor comments here that just love drama. Today is a challenge but its not insurmountable, the business is doing a lot of other things VERY well indeed

GLA

LMOL, I know what you mean, it is the "Chinese Flu" all these variants are from that initial break out in China. And of cause we did have earlier Covid break outs from China in the past. So imo the virus originated well and truly in China without question.

But name tags do stick. Tell that to Spain. They still get blamed for the "Spanish Flu" from 1918 and yet the first cases of that virus were in fact from Military Personnel in the USA!. Its highly likely it was an "American Flu" it just got worse in Spain from soldiers passing through military hospitals in Spain and the spread from there. To this day we still call that Influenza virus the "Spanish Flu" as far as America are concerned they had nothing to do with it!

Take care

Pork's

Yeah, i can see your chain of thought and of course nothing to stop DHSC even awarding contracts up to pre-agreed amounts and then not actually doing any business.

We have already seen that with ODX and their £ 374m contract win still gathering dust whilst giving Innova two £ 1.2bn deals since that day. Ridiculous.

Government will buy from where its cheapest imo. They have so far proven this point. They claim to want to buy British on the one hand and then do a deal with the Chinese on the other. Well actually try and fool the public by saying they are buying American (As innova have American sales office) but we all know it comes from China. Even the instructions on the box and packaging are in Chinese and we pay all the air freight costs on top to collect it from China.

However, irrespective of this, once we get validation for both "Professional" and "Home" use and it will come, this will enable us to push out this additional product line. Through existing established world wide channels i can see us shifting the current capacity fairly quickly and well IF the DHSC come through with some business in this direction on top, well i would consider it a nice bonus.

GLA

Unfortunately the Indian Variant cases are increasing in the UK.

BBC report blames NHS Track and Trace for failing to report numbers correctly:-
3,434 known Cases in the UK they report
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57186059

Independent are reporting a further surge in Bolton
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/bolton-hospital-covd-indian-variant-b1850870.html

Of course the real Elephant in the room is that we know the gestation period is around two to three weeks before we see hospitalisation, so using the Kent Variant metrics and we suspect the Indian Variant is more contagious it previously worked out that for one hospitalisation 1,000 cases. Tonight there are 30 patients just at Bolton Hospital with the Indian Variant. So based just on that it doesn't take Einstein to work out that in two to three weeks from today we will be reporting significant increases in Hospitalisation from the Indian Variant for sure.

So how much "Collateral Damage" is an acceptable number for reopening holiday travel?

Meanwhile the WHO are suggesting that for now International Travel should be avoided. Of course our government always prefer to ignore scientific advice:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/20/covid-still-a-threat-to-europe-travel-should-be-avoided-says-who

And BA and the travel industry still trying to lobby government saying the rules are still too strict and we should reopen up further adding more Green category countries.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/17/covid-travel-green-list-uk-airlines-travel-british-airways-heathrow

All a bit of a mess frankly, just stay safe everyone

Pork's

I am fairly confident that we will VERY shortly see a block of confirmations from PD any moment now. PLUS an award split between those players in the £ 8bn DPS tender:-
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W11/746914041

Not at all surprised if the additional premises at IT-IS is to support even further increased capacity. Nice One.

Notice just tonight an update on Bidstats another £ 1.2bm order for six weeks to the Chinese again. I'm not saying anything, I just sound like Victor Meldrew, this is on top of £ 1.2bn awarded last month, not to mention we will have about 500 million more in Airfreight costs to ship the crap back from China as the deal will be COD.
The Chinese are not daft when it comes to business that's for sure:-
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W20/751173972

Anyhow, bodes well for us that's for sure...

Sorry don't know the Sunshine Mountain song only the Hushabye Mountain song. Sang it to may daughter as a baby, bit cheesy but good for stress. Although i'm no Dick Van Dyke !!!

A gentle breeze from Hushabye Mountain
Softly blows over Lullaby Bay,
It fills the sails of boats that are waiting,
Waiting to sail your worries away.

So close your eyes on Hushabye Mountain,
Wave goodbye to cares of the day,
And watch your boat from Hushabye Mountain
Sail far away from Lullaby Bay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCdc0XMrreU