Member Info for Porky9

@B2HS2L
LMOL - oh well inheritance for the kids then??
Wasn't quite the intended meaning of my post but frustrating to see posts from the "get rich quick" squad here and on Twitter predicting impending doom for the business.
Of course the DHSC issue is more than a minor bump in the road but its more than priced in now and they are doing a lot of things right. I would like to see GM defend the SP and company value more for sure BUT the updates will come, some shareholders are fickle and on positive news sentiment can change very quickly as we have previously seen.
I remain positive
GLA

@Sir-digby
This is why its flat and nobody selling except the strategically placed short on Friday AM
Having come this far it would be mad to not wait until the full published audited results are out for full clarity
And of course we have high a high chance of the LFT validation and orders dropping and all the numerous other updates which could add / bolster the share price in the meantime.
GLA

Investing for growth:-
https://twitter.com/qcapital2020/status/1396613491298078726

In 1998, Amazon shares hit a low of $4.26.
In 1999, Amazon shares hit a year new high of $106.70.
In 2001, Amazon shares hit a year low of $5.97.
In 2020, Amazon hit an ATH $3531.45.

Don’t kid yourself, 100x baggers aren’t easy and most would never hold through drawdowns.

@Starbright
Thanks for the clarity, appreciated

Good luck all, not long now until we have full and detailed clarity

#BettertobeOptimistic
#StayPositive
#IgnorePersonalTrolls

India records 300,000 Covid deaths as pandemic rages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57224565

The situation unfortunately is not yet improving in India, reports out in the last hour confirming the ongoing issues and that the numbers may be significantly higher due to data reporting inaccuracies.

Interesting the comments on Sunday that five appointments at Novacyt were made for India? Maybe testing is being shipped here in support.

France hints at tougher restrictions on UK travellers amid variant fears
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-variant-indian-vaccine-yorkshire-cases/
Report is basically saying that France wants to follow Germany's lead and tighten restrictions on British Tourists amid fears we could bring the Indian Variant to them due to the surge of cases now starting in the UK.

@Ad4you
We are on the same page
Good luck to you, take care now
Pork's

@Saintsmith
I agree, i think as i have said before, it comes down to if you want to look at this as "a glass half empty" or " a glass half full" i don't see the point in posting constant negativity, the SP is cr@p but the business certainly isn't.

It's clear to me from my own research, they are doing many things VERY well, the R&D division is simply world class there isn't anything in the market even remotely close to how good they are in the R&D diagnostics space. If its not Covid its a matter of time before some other virus arrives that we need to stay ahead of and the Biotech's NEED a business like Novacyt that can support them to stay ahead to develop vaccines and other meds to keep us all well.

A number of side games are being played by traders here currently, specifically chartists telling you the SP is going to do one thing or another and with low volumes encouraging traders to make those moves to support that position. I don't buy into this myself, If they are that bloody good they wouldn't be posting on twitter they would just be sitting at home cleaning up millions. It's just one big game of manipulation imo and the day i follow some French tit with a "Star Trek" avatar as an an oracle on business value without doing my own proper research is they day i should just chuck the towel in frankly. Each to their own i guess !!

The trading on Friday showed me that it was flat, retail are just not selling. Now they can put the squeeze on again tomorrow, open with a nice big short but ultimately it needs buying back and a further update can land at any moment. I'm certainly not selling in fact I'm just buying in. I have come this far i am going to see it through now and shortly we will know for sure the exact position one way or another.

Relaxed, well of course not happy with the SP but i'm not actually out of pocket yet. Its only a loss if i make it a loss and i consider the current SP from my own research reflects a fire sale value hence why i'm not selling. I intend to make a good return on my investment and its going to happen - i remain confident.

My advice to anyone nervous would be to switch off the computer and revisit later in the year, don't give up your valuable shares, there are only 72m of them in issue. 12% in the hands of II and 1.5% short.

GLA

IF it is FACT that under French law a business on the Bourse can not be acquired for less than the ATH share price in that 12 mth period then the Take Out price would be a minimum of £ 12.25 or £ 880m as it stands.

We discussed this before and probably total nonsense, I'm just returning back to the grip room article we discussed:-
https://www.griproom.com/fun/10-signs-your-company-is-about-to-be-acquired

So lets just suppose the company had some choice suitors that ultimately they wanted to be part of, lets just say AZN for this purpose and to table an offer subject to due diligence they needed the full audited accounts completed for the year to assign a possible offer, were already working ever closer with the company in the background regarding how an integration would work over the year and had said to GM, look when we make a move, unofficially we won't likely want to go more than £ 14 or c £1bn. Due to French Law last thing we need is the SP rallying to excessive heights in the short term which could prevent a deal being done.

When the results statement came out, the figures were bloody amazing, lets face it. Yes there was some wild speculation that revenue could be even higher but Novacyt was just on Fire the SP was £ 12.25 and on its journey further north, it could have rallied well past £ 25 easy imo. Then Whack, with that fantastic set of results, the CEO plays it right down saying uncertain future, it wasn't needed frankly and the SP crashes. WTF.

The results were 210m EBITDA and £100m cash at Bank - That's a business worth more than £ 1bn or x5 EBITDA all day long. We have since seen deals at a fraction of Novacyt's revenues going for significantly higher levels!!!

Meanwhile, all their peers were shortly reporting how amazing the outlook for Diagostics is through to 2024 and beyond.

Now, we will we all shortly see how events unfold here in good time, not long to wait now but this is the only logical reason i can think of for the negativity. Are we a sitting duck here? GM is a very smart guy, this is not some idiot running a business making school boy errors in the wordings of press releases? Is the forward statement going to be we will be part of AZN or other?

2+ 2 = 22, i just don't know frankly BUT for sure i want to see the confirmed position at H1 and the accounts position with any provisions made if the DHSC dispute is still outstanding so i can re-calculate my values. One thing i am certain of is that this business is worth a dam sight more than its current £250m mcap for sure.

Absolutely no chance of me selling any stock without question.

GLA

@Troublesomee
I intend to review my calculations after the H1 and forward statement in a few weeks time.
You can appreciate that my target values are significantly higher than the previous ATH and ANY target figure i stated here would just come under ridicule in view of recent events.
However, my valuation metric is still the same, business has not changed, in fact its got stronger with expansion, further product lines that may deliver "Significant" further revenues. In addition, i believe that the dispute will go in our favour and that will also boost the share price.
As frustrating as it is, current events are a distraction or could be seen as a major buying opportunity for the Brave or as i would rather say, ahem,, the well researched.
Good Luck to you, Take care now
Pork's

@ChrisToffer
"I suspect it's to do with the minimum value of contract and i also suspect DHSC are now trying to claim Q1 sales under the original £150m;...."
...........................................................................................................................

That's EXACTLY how i see it, they over ordered at the start of the pandemic and are now trying to wiggle out of paying the minimum contract order value to the end of December. The DHSC have done this with at least Three other companies that we know of including Dyson - disgusting treatment of UK companies trying to support government at a time of crisis.

The product has a shelf life and was put aside exclusively for this DHSC client. Novacyt could not sell it elsewhere due to the restrictions they had contracted to deliver under the DHSC terms.

Can you imagine if it was the other way around and Novacyt had said, oh sorry, we can't ship you that consignment we agreed under contract as we have decided to ship it to another client in the USA instead!!!!

The DHSC did not confirm an extension either BUT still purchased products going into Q1 and probably still now!!!!

By my own rough calculation i estimated they are about £ 27m light on the minimum contract order value. They were still buying product going onto Q1 for the next year and are probably trying to offset that against last years contract. I strongly suspect this is the case.

No can do. If this is the reality then GM is 100% in the right and not only will this be settled in our favour, they will have to pay up for what they agreed.

It's no wonder the Chinese work on COD on orders taken, DHSC are fast earning a reputation of not being trusted. They need to get their act together and do the right things by UK business.

GLA

The Shorters want it both ways frankly: -

It is all about HISTORIC earnings when it comes to what amount may or may not end up coming off DHSC invoiced contracts, in the last financial year against our already depressed share price.

Yet many other businesses at valued at many times our multiples on ZERO sales.

Then It is all out FUTURE earnings when it comes our valuation going forwards.

Just want to say excluding the pipeline of products about to come into play, some of which are to add “SIGNIFICANT” revenues. IF you strip out the entire DHSC business all together, which will not be the case, we are still talking about a business that DELIVERED yes actually invoiced and collected about £ 30m of sales non DHSC on Q4 and £ 35m of sales non DHSC in Q1 with a H1 likely to come in shortly north of £ 110m!!!

And we are sitting here at 255m Valuation, bloody ridiculous.

Still adding, I have faith here that once the published audited figures are out, the LFTs are Validated and Out, the second gen Antibody tests and the H1 and forward statements declared the landscape will look vastly different.

MMs and shorters can play whatever games they like in the meantime; I am not selling.

GLA

Pork's

WBFAC - I'm losing the plot, Please DM me

@Kaeren
I would rather send in the lead singer from Malta to go in twist a couple of nuts off Matt Handjob..

I have to say i did explore earlier to establish if they were happy to see the share price drift to perhaps facilitate a share buy back to perhaps delist and take the company private. It crossed my mind.
However, it looks like they can only buy back 200k maximum so that rules that idea out

Allowing II in and cleansing Retail out further as suggested is possible BUT i don't see that adding any real value in doing so. Not sure what level Black Rock are in at, i thought they were averaging between £7 and £8. Invest securities meanwhile were in at minimum buy price of 7.70 Euro. I don't see any of them selling out BUT equally none are buying in excepting a small fund that did buy in last week which was helping the Share Price recover then they dropped the Friday RNS.

So, not really sure the name of the game here. With only 72m of shares in issue it doesn't take many to shift the price BUT market was practically flat all day on that news Friday apart from an obvious Short at the open. Nobody was selling. We had 2.2m of trades on the AIM Friday and half were Buys, I was one of them.

The stock is short north of 1.1m shares that need buying back. I just don't see retail selling, they will likely see it out now until at least H1 as its only a few more weeks to go and we will have total clarity. Why would anyone sell before then having come this far. Those that wanted out are well gone imo weeks ago.

We discussed a few times if a TO was a possible and the SP was helped down for that reason. Numis are the house broker and they should help them with RNS statements. It's always a possibility nothing is off the table.

Recent events are most odd but i think we just have to ride it out, see what happens next, all will be clear soon. Once they secure validation on the LFT and can kick start that product line that should give us a boost.

I'm nursing a big paper loss but still sticking with it, they are continuing to recruit, R&D side spectacular with a great stable of additional products to add revenues, £35m already invoiced in Q1 without DHSC and doing a lot of things right, mcap only £ 255m. It's still all to play for imo. See what next week brings.

GLA

@roleybirkin
Not sure why i'm bothering to respond to you as you are one of the biggest de-rampers or shorter's here but for the purpose of amusement:-
COVID is not going away, you can't vaccinate the entire world 100%, heck even here in the UK with the highest take up rate we still have 40% not vaccinated so harsh reality is we need to learn to live with it. That is not even considering new Variants we need to protect against.

Novacyt are in other branches of Diagnostics but with demand being so high you can't not service this sector and based on our peers revenues from this sector will climb beyond 2024 !!!!

As such we are at a point where a) there will be continuing revenues and b) market value of our peers is significantly higher than where we are today.

So the board of Novacyt need to do something to either support shareholder confidence or consider merger or sale to a larger group to deliver shareholder value

I await their next move and updates over the coming weeks

Pork's

WBAFC
I am not far off your position. Not sure but only a few weeks to go until position declared imo
Happy to connect on Twitter
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here

Interesting that Larry also picked up on the current market deals.

Numerous deals but these two specifically are VERY similar in that they deliver near patient PCR solutions. Neither are anything close to the scale of Novacyt in terms of R&D capability, position on world stage or indeed network and partner capability.

Thermo Fisher Buys Mesa Biotech
https://www.fdanews.com/articles/201580-thermo-fisher-scientific-wraps-up-acquisition-of-mesa-biotech-netting-covid-19-test
In this deal it’s a private company and it costs Thermo $550m USD including the earn out.
Revenues were $45m to the end of 2020

Hologic to Acquire Mobidiag
https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/hologic-to-acquire-mobidiag-innovator-in-near-patient-acute-care-diagnostic-testing-for-approximately-795-million/
In this deal it’s a listed business and they pay $714m PLUS the net debt of Mobidiag $81m to form an offer of $795
Revenues were $42m to the end of 2020

So that’s two deals above where in VERY rough figures that’s a price paid ranging from 12x Revenue to 17x Revenue to acquire the business, good will and moreover all the IP and assets to take them forward under their respective larger groups.

If we look at Novacyt today, even stripping out all DHSC 100% they still delivered £35m Revenue just in Q1 !!! and our market cap at close Friday stands at £ 255m

From a shareholder value perspective our valuation is woefully inadequate

Pork’s

@Ad4you
Yes, you are right i read it. she is a VERY sharp analyst. Highly rate her research.
I see this as another diagnostic area that we will be involved with.
Another Positive

The government has ramped up its programme to analyse wastewater for early signs of coronavirus.
The sewage-testing programme now covers two-thirds of England's population.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57205126

"Well over 500 locations are being monitored for coronavirus, and many of them sampled at least four days a week, thereby generating an enormous amount of data on the prevalence of the virus across the UK.