Member Info for Porky9

The only positive i can put on this is that IF its a genuine sell i am hoping its Vatal.
Sooner we clear that one out the better.
Just a thought, maybe the short yesterday was placed knowing that that 2.1m sell was going to happen???
The SP manipulation is beyond a joke.

2.1 m Sell or Short on the Bourse right on the Bell
We should know shortly. If its a fund sell then we should get a TR1 issued but it could be an increased short.

The .56% new short, by Millennium International that's 406k was added yesterday 26.5 so that was already priced in.
https://breakoutpoint.com/pre/stock/novacyt-migdb/fr0010397232/

So we now have declared 2% of our shares in issue Short and that doesn't include any others that are under .5 and not declared:-
https://www.shortics.com/novacyt
The only positive is that the shorts will need buying back.

Bit sick of the trading manipulation here, looking forward to updates from the company to blow these short positions out the water. When the SP does break out it will be big time imo knocking these shorts out...

Also, I can't tell you how much i would like Novacyt to move off that crappy French index. All it attracts is two bit French traders, it has next to no clout or investor reach on the world stage, everything has to be issued twice once in English and again in French and we do next to sod all business in France.

Novacyt has well and truly outgrown the French index, time to dump it....

I don’t see it like that
By law Novacyt have to publish the full audited accounts by that’s time line, at this point IF the dispute is not resolved a provision will need to be made. So as wild speculation let’s say DHSC want a refund or are refusing to pay £27m or want to offset against future invoices or whatever and Novacyt are saying you owe us an additional £23m you are not paying.

From where we are as Shareholders at that point we have best and worst case scenario positions confirmed. Full clarity. Meanwhile the SP is on worse possible case scenario hence we should see an SP bounce.

It is the uncertainty that has been the issue here more than the dispute. We will also have the H1 result shortly and also have clarity on all the non DHSC business, again another plus imo

I guess if there is a dispute ongoing last thing either party need is a public discussion containing public perception of events that could be cited against either party.

Whatever the case we can only let events play out. You all know what I think, over ordering at the start of the pandemic but hopefully whatever the case it’s concluded shortly. If it’s not, the provision will be in the accounts shortly anyhow so that will at least clarify the amounts involved.

Share price is based on worse case in any event so I only see upside in the SP from here

GLA

New 'super mutant' Covid strains may emerge, government scientist warns
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-indian-variant-vaccine-deaths-lockdown/

Article Behind a paywall but effectively highlighting our need to keep ahead on VOC as virus continues to mutate in different parts of the world and that concern against us being hit by a "Super Mutant" strain is increasing.

These sort of things we cant spend time worrying about but for the future of mankind, we now need to strengthen our diagnostic capabilities and vaccine research and be building to protect ourselves in the future. Time to be pro-active and invest in this sector rather than just being reactive when we get hit by a virus.

As a side; i do see further strengthening relationships with the Biotech's for future vaccines, really diagnostics now goes hand in hand. Matter of time before Novacyt is part of a major pharma, just got to hope we get chance to grow significantly bigger before that happens.

GLA

@ShearClass
Didn't say yesterday but that was a quality piece of research you carried out
Further strengthens our case and again illustrates how ludicrous our current valuation is
It's a no brainer to continuing adding at these levels
GLA

Interesting Guy
Rockefeller Foundation has completed loads of great Charity work stateside to support the vaccine program throughout the pandemic and of course $30m donations on testing programs which Thermo Fisher supported.
Will add to follow list

@Macmdude
You are FOS
Watch this space and see how events unfold, only a few more days to go...

There will NOT be a "Sovereign" test imo. Point me to ANY official document that says that the British Government are going to select ONE test, the best one, that passes the PD evaluation process and becomes validated and it will be classed as the "Sovereign" test. Its total BS.

Any LFT that passes 3a Validation at PD will be classed as being of standard. At that point it will be down to the individual businesses and their networks to secure orders, manufacture and ship products.

GLA

The DHSC updated the website with FIVE more LFTs that have passed PD stage 3a Validation
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/outcome-of-the-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

I genuinely think the following will be a reality:-
1. Novacyt will secure 3a and be Validated for both "Professional" and "Home" use which will be nice bonus for us.
2. Novacyt will secure "Significant" revenues following the release of their validated product and 1 million units a week unless they further increase capacity will be shipped BUT it will be via existing partners and channels.
3.PD will now start updating on more and more validations and clear the back log
4. The £8bn government Tender will ultimately get sorted BUT i think it will be split by as many as 100 companies with awards up to £80 million each. OK it could be less like 25 up to £ 320 million but I would be surprised if the contract went to one supplier. More likely to ANY party that meets the validation criteria rather than to the best test.
5. There won't be a "Sovereign" Test, its an urban myth, government will continue to buy cheap tests from Innova especially when they open the factory in wales with 7m capacity a week. I don't trust this government one jot.

The good news is that this is a nice additional product line, adding yet further revenues in our second half.
An update on this will drop any moment.

Pork's

Lots of positive things going on within the business, onwards and upwards
Pork's

@Oriens1 and @Jgcw
Now pack it in.
Anyone properly researched here can clearly see you are trying to post miss-information to create fear in retail or discourage retail from buying. Utterly pathetic
“I pray, and my fingers and toes are crossed” ohhh pleaseeee is that the best you can do???
Firstly a sale is a sale is a sale, it doesn’t matter if they secure a sale in outer Mongolia or another to the Eskimos, nobody cares. What’s important is that worldwide markets are expanding and sales are being completed.

They are currently on target to deliver 173m EBITDA this year and with net cash north of £ 200m do you really think the current mcap of £ 250m is going to hold at that point irrespective of where sales come from??

Further you also know that revenues from additional lines are due to add in the second half and likely to bolster numbers further. We also know they have boots on the ground in the USA and certain distribution channels established in certain countries so clearly they will have stronger sales in certain parts of the world than they will in others. Its not going sales divided equally between 150 countries, don’t be so ridiculous.

We don’t know the full splits yet and Novacyt are right to keep them confidential for now. They don’t want competitors knowing where business is strong for them however, we do know the splits back in H1 2020 sales to USA/Canada about 4% and will be much higher now. Sales were split by about 7 regions of the world.

If anyone wants to do a VanV and go through all my posting history I believe I posted in about Feb time I think what the worldwide splits were!!!. I cant be ars@ed myself to go over my old research but the splits are there. Finally still to come:
* Full Audited Accounts Position
* H1 Trading Results
* 2nd Gen Antibody Test
* Antigen Test LFT and validation “Professional” and “Home” use
* Confirmation on where both the Genotype Testing Assay fits in and the work with AZN on Saliva Tests
* The position stateside following all the Accreditations secured for US Government Contracts
* Any acquisitions being concluded
* What they are doing in both Cancer Tumor testing and Maternity testing areas
* Impact of the recent awards both direct and indirect via partners
* Innovations that IT-is are involved in.

Just starting to warm up again now, news rich period. Do some research yourselves and see the reality of the picture here. I'm still adding to my holding as funds permit

GLA

Looking forward now to positives news flows

Bank Holiday on Monday so only three days left to get news out before the end of May and a few updates expected including second Promate test and possibly the LFT validation position .

Something positive at 7.00am would be nice.......

GLA

Dean has been a significant contributor and supporter of Novacyt

I consider it loss to our discussion to lose his input but the Shorters and Derampers over on Twitter and here are a disgusting and despicable lot. They don't stop posting unsubstantiated comments about how wrong he is and how the share price will soon be even lower, a few French idiots joining in also and numerous Trolls just insulting the guy and he has probably just about had enough of it.

This is the issue i guess, when we have what imo will ultimately prove to be a temporary fall back in the share price the vultures just go to town on it. Moment positive news starts flowing and attitudes change and share price lifts they will be back here posting about how great the company is!!!

I just really hope that Dean just takes a few days break, recharges, starts blocking the idiots on Twitter and carries on contributing. Top guy.

@Rhino4Real
And of course some like to trade to catch the odd 5% or 10% raise and then sell into it others prefer a longer term view. Stocks would never reach ATHs if we all took that pessimistic or short term trader view.
I recall you posting when the SP was sub £8 on its way up to the £12.25 ATH and you wern't interested in buying back then.
Lots of manipulation to look out for on these boards frankly, let alone Twitter
Each to their own

Yes but i read a lot on these boards and other boards about how the government are working towards selecting a "Sovereign LFT" that will be used for rapid testing going forwards however, having done my own research can anyone point me to ANY written official government statement that actually says this is 100% going to be the case?

As far as i'm concerned from reading the PD evaluation criteria if you make the list because you are approved for the criteria of 3a then you make the list!!! - It dosen't say anywhere in the evaluation of PD that once all tests evaluated that pass 3a we will then pick the best one for use in the UK by the UK government.

It will just end up imo like all the other framework deals, probably be 100 companies that make the list and the £8bn award split between all and in reality it will be who is the cheapest. Innova will probably be on that list also.

The plant over at ODX could be making Innova tests one week, ours the next, someone else's the next, who knows and the up to £ 356m could end up significantly less just like our own awards... I mean can you trust the DHSC??

Good news is it doesn't really affect us either way as we can simply sell our own tests once validated though all existing channels but as for a "One Sovereign Test" i'm not seeing that being a reality. Government spent £ 1.2bn in April and £ 1.2bn in May plus shipping from China, they are probably about to order another £ 1.2bn from China

GLA

@Wilson63
Great Find, specifically his comment:-
"And rapid tests need not be only rapid antigen tests. They can be rapid molecular RNA tests too! Like lab based PCR. But fast. Convenient. At home or camp or the nurses office at school"

Exactly what we are supporting - looks like its going to start getting interesting again...
It's our turn for some positive boosts now...
GLA

https://www.promega.co.uk/
Interesting Company that one and Involved in Waste Water Testing

@Wilson63
Totally agree with you. Strange, I would say utter madness, for sure to be a super spreader event if there ever was one!!!
No idea what they are thinking
Yes another example of Government ignoring scientific evidence

Just a quick shout out to our poster here HarChris:

He was the 2nd most recommended Poster on the entire LSE site today with an amazing 956 Recs:

Monday's most recommended Posters
Username Rep. Score
Tillywhiz 1,068.17
HarChris 956.46
PL75 894.26
PaddyGall 819.59
Bamps21 765.72

Quality, nice one, good on you....

Pork's

Absolutely outstanding discussion today evaluating this Matter, brilliant. For those visiting LSE tonight.
The contract in dispute relates to this notification detailed on Bidstats: -
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W47/739312011
28 Sep 2020 to 28 Jan 2021
Contract Award Up to £ 406m Value

So, in effect the 4th Quarter OCT/NOV/DEC of 2020 and the JAN of the 1st Quarter pf 2021.
ANYTHING else is outside of this contracted period and is NOT relevant to the contract dispute.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing BUT had Novacyt just said at the initial notification we are simply in dispute over this contract per se, the effect of a second smash raid on the share price by having to confirm extending it into Jan, could have been prevented. Anyhow, we are where we are.

On the 29th of September 2020 Company RNS they clarify the award win further: -
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCYT/new-uk-dhsc-contract-b8qwrk6yccpxt78.html
They clearly state the MINIMUM award under this contract is £ 150m for the first 14 weeks and then an offer of an extension of 10 weeks for a further £ 100m and the award includes supply of instruments, related kits, and support services. So, I guess the up to £ 156m difference was the supporting kits and services.

Now we later discovered that the 10-week extension was NOT requested BUT did they give ample notice under the contract? You cannot expect a supplier to keep stock aside “Just in case”.

In all, as discussed, its looking more and more likely that Not only may Novacyt have strong grounds to assert their contractual rights under the contract issued as they stated BUT also it could well result in Novacyt being able to Invoice and collect the missing amounts under the minimum contract values. We have explored a few possibilities here but by my rough calculation I still come out at around £ 27m short fall.

Other supply contract winners should learn from our experience. These award amounts are not worth the paper they are printed on. Just because it says £ 406m on the award does not mean that is what we would get. However, if they stipulate a minimum agreed value in a specific time, especially during a pandemic and prevent us from selling elsewhere they really should do the honourable thing and PAY UP and not quibble over it!!

It will be interesting to see the outcome when this matter is closed off. The longer it drifts on the more disillusioned I become by how some of our government offices are run.

GLA

Pork’s.