Member Info for Porky9

Not sure if it was picked up here in the thread as i was on business most of the day and may have missed it but, Natalie went to the trouble of confirming that Biograd are using Primer Design assays.
https://twitter.com/Conquer43162270/status/1405221546692599822/photo/1

This is a significant expanding partner and there was a question a short while back if they were still working with us or not, clearly they are... Also revenues from pre-flight covid tests have only just started so this will give us a further boost in the H2.

All very positive and a this is a superb partnership

GLA

Time to Stay positive as we Inch ever closer to numerous updates.

Gentle Reminder of what's still to come any moment. The brief list, not conclusive of some of the aspects we are waiting to hear about that should help push the Share Price North:-

* Antigen Test LFT and validation “Professional” and “Home” use - Confident we can secure that any moment
* Antigen LFT Capacity 1 million per week or Increased Capacity? "Significant" orders?
* Full Audited Accounts Position (incl. any provisions for DHSC for clarity)
* Likely Settlement within the Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) Period
* H1 Trading Results expected to be strong including Cash at Bank figure to end June £140m+?
* 2nd Gen Antibody Test (Advanced to identify antibodies from the virus and from vaccines)
* Details of strategic Partnership? Who can that be? Excalibur? AZN ?? or is it a non scientific partner, Amazon?
* Confirmation on where both the Genotype Testing Assay fits in and the work with AZN on Saliva Tests for Airport use
* The position stateside following all the Accreditations secured for US Government Contracts
* Any plans for Stateside they really are ramping up boots on the ground over there. How recent appointments fit in?
* Any acquisitions being concluded
* What they are doing in both Cancer Tumor testing and Maternity testing areas?
* Impact of the recent awards both direct and indirect via partners
* With Innova under review licence 22/6 is their possible other business?
* Details of expansion plans in progress (We know about extended premises and we know that Recruitment is climbing)
* What supplying we will be engaged with in respect of the Lighthouse Mega Labs? Is Leamington Spa mega lab going to be supplied by us?
* Innovations that IT-is are involved in, New product roll out, what were all the recent filed Patents for?

As you can see lots of ongoing activity. We have taken a constant beating on the share price but ultimately fundamentals have to shine through. This financial year we are likely to deliver north of at least £ 200m of sales, have £ 170m cash at bank and that's without revenues from LFTs and new product releases that are claimed to be "Substantial"

Does that sound like a business only worth £ 235m which is what our Share Price tells us at close tonight? Hold the faith, at some point this has to correct.

Good Luck All

Pork's

I'm just trying to get my head around this:-
https://twitter.com/TJ0056/status/1404843772643524619

Genomics England
https://www.genomicsengland.co.uk/

It's set up as an official UK registered Limited company at companies house. It has a £350m share capital and one shareholder namely the secretary of state. Matt Hanjob with a controlling interest.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08493132

Why? Anyone else with thoughts on this?... because i haven't a bloody clue and i can't see why government have a need to set up a separate limited company with shareholders, why is this not a department of DHSC

@Kaeren
Just noticed your earlier post.

Nobody has responded I believe because the process is NOT totally clear, it looks like the DHSC COULD go against scientific or validation advise from PHE Porton Down, but I would think that highly unlikely, but both DHSC and PD are part of the “Oversight Group”. If DHSC approved something not validated and it caused damages a legal claim could be substantial…

From my research IF you are a business with an LFT device, in the first instance you apply to the DHSC. They will then undertake a desk-top review, including the submitted details of manufacturers’ claimed performance and instructions for use, to identify tests which may perform with sufficient sensitivity and very high specificity to enable them to be used to detect and direct responses to emerging outbreaks.

IF they do not like your application, or do not think your product is of sufficient standard the application goes no further and you are rejected.

IF they consider your product is of sufficient standard it is then passed to PHE Porton Down and they continue the validation process steps we previously outlined which starts with the manufacturer sending 500 of their test kits to go through the validation process.

At this point the product goes through all the evaluation process stages 1 to 3a.

Meanwhile, The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) provides ongoing regulatory oversight, it is not able to directly grant a licence as far as I know without the product clearing the DHSC “Oversight Group” process.

So, regarding Innova, as it previously passed the evaluation process it COULD be possible that DHSC grant an extended license without further checks BUT would they really do that? Especially with the information they now have to hand. Also, the PD evaluation process is much more advanced now than it was back in sept 20 as such the Innova test should be properly re-evaluated. Anyhow we will know one way or another by Tuesday.

If anyone has more knowledge / experience on the above happy to stand corrected - Thanks

Pork’s

@MS
The "American" company BS was really just a smoke screen, a fronting sales office, so that government could say they were dealing with an American company rather than China.
The entire product down to the packaging has been developed, manufactured and packed onto pallets for collection in China. We even had to sort out the air freight to ship the crap back to the UK, orders COD you just couldn't make it up..
If government grant the license they can continue to buy more of it direct from China

@RBMInvest
There is no evidence yet that UK Gov’s relationship with Innova is under review i agree However; the license to continue as a validated product is due for renewal on the 22nd June 2021 and as such it would need to pass PD evaluation again especially since the criteria changed and was updated since they were first awarded the initial license back in Sept 20. Government could of course try and fudge it through...

Meanwhile, the FDA allegations are duplicitous, my understanding is that the FDA are even suggesting a fraud here, the data was copied from some other test. That is fairly serious stuff. I cant see how the UK government could ignore that, the Innova LFT should be re-evaluated for sure to be 100% that the data and the information submitted is correct.

They could grant the license and carry on buying, business as usual and ignore the FDAs position.
They could grant the licence and just not buy anymore from Innova.
They could decline to licence all together (the right decision imo in the circumstances)

Added to this of course is the fact that a) the Innova test has come under serious allegations regarding its accuracy anyhow and b) there are better tests now available and others coming to the market so we don't need this specific test.

Further, we are not supporting trade with the USA if they are saying the tests that Innova produce are not fit for purpose and should be immediately "thrown in the trash"

It's going to be an interesting outcome and in less than 7 days we will know if the license is renewed or not. If it isn't renewed all current Innova LFTs would need to be removed from the UK market imo - could a product that hasn't had its license renewed still be available? It would be an expensive write off especially as the government spend £1.2 billion on the crap in May plus shipping.... unless of course they start yet another dispute...

Pork's

In my considered opinion it is time for Novacyt to either list on the Nasdaq or at the very least arrange a move to the Main Market. The company has clearly grown and matured and certainly outgrown the Bourse and it is dual listing with the AIM is no longer appropriate.

Typically, a firm will list on AIM to raise money and expand its profile, in Novacyt’s case as far as I know the Aim listing was not to raise cash, it was simply to raise its profile and investor reach.

The natural progression is now to upgrade to the main market. The move would be good for the company’s future development as it would raise their profile further. It would also mean that investors, such as asset managers that cannot invest in junior AIM stocks, would then have the option to buy the shares.

This would also include tracker funds that cover the main market as well. At some point, these passive investments would have to purchase Novacyt’s shares to ensure that the underlying index of the main market was fully covered. All this buying would likely result in a material stock price increase.

Add to this that we only have 72 million shares in issue, a move of this nature feels like a no-brainer to me. If they ditched the Bourse listing, they would only need to follow one lot of regulations and issue updates in one language which would be another bonus.

Finally, an increase of the shares in issue to say 360m on the basis of say 1:5 issue would also give them further liquidity.

At some point the BOD must consider this…..

GLA

Outbreaks of the #DeltaVariant have been identified in over 70 countries. However, it's not the only #COVID19 variant that is worrying. Here's an easy-to-digest infographic highlighting the #VariantsofConcern, that #Novacyt's SNPsig® portfolio can detect. #NCYT
https://twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1404834914189647880/photo/1

@Kitzie
Not a bad call http://www.sdbiosensor.com
Roche are massive in this file and the test does sound similar to what was suggested; nice find...

My thought was still with Excalibur as we partner with them on PCR tests and again that test sounds very similar

Feels more likely that the partner will be someone with a test already validated on the PD list.
It's one heck of a confident statement to say we will have a test that will be sub 15mins and validated for home use if it were a partner even like AZN that hadn't got a test in the market.

Thanks to @Kaeren for the link to updated PD List:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/outcome-of-the-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

Looking really good, SP is beyond a joke but not long now....

Pork's

Well if Sir Patrick has called it right, lets face it its what we all think anyhow, and its a case of learning to live with the virus then diagnostics will be here to stay for a very long time.

#Novacyt is history in the making

Well for once we are in a fantastic position.

Our Invoiced Sales Revenues are booming, £ 72.6m in Q1 of which circa £ 35.0m was non DHSC, whilst other test providers are in panic mode if their LFT tests will secure any sales at all.

For those not had chance to research the space here is a brief overview: -

Novacyt are about to release to the market their PathFlow® SARS-CoV-2 Antigen LFT product which they claim will be validated for both “Professional” and “Home” use and will create a further “Significant” sales revenue stream in H2.

Any sales we do secure will be an ADDITIONAL revenue stream on top of what we already invoice, so a win, win for us. Now to supply the UK market and secure validation you need to pass our Porton Down evaluation process.

This is the validation criteria for each stage: -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/protocol-for-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

This is the list of LFTs currently fully validated for 3a (top level) as of 3rd June by Porton Down:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/outcome-of-the-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

Now the stand out winner in the LFT supply market to the UK so far has been Innova. We have spent Incredible sums on these tests: -
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?q=innova&btype=central-gov

However, this relationship is now under evaluation as Innova’s licence originally granted Sept 20, needs to be renewed on 22nd June 21 and the FDA in the USA have issued a very damming report suggesting that they fraudulently entered data copied from another test to try and pass validation.
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1514

Now, early evening there has been much debate on boards about legal action being taken by Mologic against the government as they suggest their test was unfairly rejected. This was in the telegraph behind a pay wall. But fortunately, you can read it on twitter: -
https://twitter.com/manxmarkets/status/1404492385053253641

It turns out they are NOT taking legal action but merely “Considering” legal action so a lot of noise frankly but sure to spook the market for those just in the LFT space!!

Still keeping up… more twists and turns than a roller coaster. However, all eyes are now on what decisions Porton Down make regarding Innova. Everyone wants a slice of that revenue.

Personally, I am only interested in what we release to the market, we get it right and there indeed will be a massive opportunity to add to our revenues for sure, not long to find out…

GLA

@chrisdr2
Respect your point, if the device Novacyt release has high s&s and is superior to the Innova offering then it will be a welcome additional product line. Give the clients what they demand and cover all bases - I can run with that :) Just need the share price to reflect it now...
Take care
Pork’s

@troublesome
I totally agree, the US haven't been a fan of LFTs from the start, other countries were not buying Innova and the ones they were trying to sell stateside without regulatory approval have been withdrawn from the market. So yes, i do suspect the UK government have been by a yard mile Innova's biggest customer.

We have spent Incredible sums spent on these tests: -
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?q=innova&btype=central-gov

Not to mention massive sums on shipping to fly the crap from china.... i'm not happy about it either but little we can do about it. Frankly, I really hope that the licence is not renewed on the 22nd but our government are not renowned for always doing the right thing and making the right decisions are they?

Meanwhile, DHSC are just as diabolical, in dispute with us, were in dispute with Abingdon, dispute with Dyson, in fact in dispute with loads of businesses they will likely be in dispute with Innova as well. In fact, they were probably in dispute today over what sandwiches to pick for lunch.
I'm sure DHSC stands for the Dispute Hatching Standards Commission
Pork's

@SteveV
IMO for what its worth I think its unrelated, we all have different challenges, ODX need to start manufacturing, AVCT need to finally start invoicing some business and we need to get the revenues we have done audited and confirmed and hopefully get this dam dispute behind us.

Not matter how Innova dress this up, If the FDA are investigating including for possible fraud the outlook is not going to be great, they can dress that up anyhow they like. I mean, if you where another government would you buy from them now especially with better products that are coming to the market?

It feels like we are on the absolute cusp of greatness here, so much news to drop, feeling positive.

Pork's

It's Market Cap is an absolute farcical £ 240m
The H1 will come in around at least 120m in my opinion, cash at bank in the region of 140m and that's before we discuss the new product lines the Antigen LFT the second gen Antibody test and the business divisions have to be worth something...
Absolute No brainer imo

Just Added Further top up before close
2927 shares at 342.94 on AIM
Not sure how long these silly prices will hold for, may as well take full advantage
Good Luck All

You know this company are doing some amazing things, well ahead of the curve possibly the best R&D in the world and helping keep us all safe.

Yes, the share price is on its ars@ no other way to say it, BUT the business isn't, they are expanding at a rapid rate of knots. Increases in capacity, increases in premises, increased staff numbers, new product lines being added etc etc.

Can we at least champion the great things here being done?, rather than all this negativity? We need to attract new investors to help build their profile up, lets talk about what's great????

I read some of the posts here and whilst i accept if you have a short or a spread bet you might well be trying to talk gloom and doom to encourage sells BUT if you genuinely hold the stock lets at least try for some positivity... its depressing at times.

Other stock boards get behind the business and champion them, and many don't have even half of what we have here!! we can do the same. Remember; Novacyt delivered £35m non DHSC revenue in just the first quarter this year... £ 35 million. That's invoiced business some companies on the AIM could only ever dream of...

Anyhow, rant over, Good luck all

For new shareholders, welcome. You are investing at a very exciting time with many updates due within a fairly short period of time.

This is a brief list, not conclusive of some of the aspects we are awaiting updates for that should help push the Share Price North:-

* Antigen Test LFT and validation “Professional” and “Home” use - Confident we can secure that any moment
* Antigen LFT Capacity 1 million per week or Increased Capacity? "Significant" orders?
* Full Audited Accounts Position (incl. any provisions for DHSC for clarity)
* Likely Settlement within the Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) Period
* H1 Trading Results expected to be strong including Cash at Bank figure to end June £140m+?
* 2nd Gen Antibody Test (Advanced to identify antibodies from the virus and from vaccines)
* Details of strategic Partnership? Who can that be? Excalibur? AZN ??
* Confirmation on where both the Genotype Testing Assay fits in and the work with AZN on Saliva Tests for Airport use
* The position stateside following all the Accreditations secured for US Government Contracts
* Any plans for Stateside they really are ramping up boots on the ground over there. How recent appointment fit in?
* Any acquisitions being concluded
* What they are doing in both Cancer Tumor testing and Maternity testing areas?
* Impact of the recent awards both direct and indirect via partners
* With Innova under review possible other business
* Details of expansion plans in progress (We know about extended premises and we know that Recruitment is climbing)
* What supplying we will be engaged with in respect of the Lighthouse Mega Labs? Is Leamington Spa mega lab going to be supplied by us?
* Innovations that IT-is are involved in, New product roll out, what were all the recent filed Patents for?

As you can see lots of ongoing activity - Good Luck

Pork's

@Kaeren
Fair point, indeed i haven't seen anything anywhere either. This product dev is totally top secret.
If it is Excalibur i wouldn't be surprised if its released with some kind of integration with the test to go App or similar:-https://excaliburhealth.co.uk/test-to-go-app/
Might be wishful thinking but Novacyt are known for always being a head of the curve and my gut feeling is that they won't disappoint here either.
Not long now to wait...

@Wilson63
Yes indeed, non-invasive
Thanks