Member Info for Porky9

Don't know enough about Gendrive other than it did £1m of revenue £20m loss and has a Mcap of £44m , can't see it being any benefit to Novacyt.

Novacyt need to bolster mobile NPT, strengthen Bioinformatics side and move into some non covid diagnostics that they can push through existing world wide network. Possibly some new innovations they can secure validation for.

Some shorts need to close and price not going down enough. Pesky retail buying ahead of the expected LFT news, let them panic
We can wait...

I mean its not funny but because the Innova LFTs were so crap it was reported that School kids were using fruit juice to create false positive tests to wag a day off school
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/schools-warning-children-using-fruit-20896618.amp?__twitter_impression=true

My daughter was telling me that some of the bored kids at the local college were trying out diet coke, milk, coffee in fact anything they could get their hands on to try and create positive results with the strangest of liquids.
Obviously have too much time on their hands
Take Care

I remain incredibly relaxed tonight and INCREDIBLY positive regarding Novacyt’s future.

Obviously, some have own agenda, but we sit here tonight with a business with world class R&D, world class Bioinformatics team, a distribution network extending to 150 countries and the only assays to detect all known Variants, POC technology, New Stateside division and a declared £ 277m revenue, 176m EBITDA and 92m cash at bank. Not a bad position to be in.

Ultimately the DHSC position may be resolved for less than £ 20 m of product BUT add to this the new LFT product going live that will add further “Significant” revenues, not to mention the 2nd Gen Antibody Test and we have a business well positioned to deliver solid ongoing revenues and proven longevity which will ultimately result in a re-rating.

Bring it on…

Also, we have the H1 results and forward statement due out shortly and GM has already confirmed that they invoiced £88.4m in the first five months, so the H1 2021 will likely come in at: -
Revenue £100m
EBITDA £ 70m
Cash at bank £ 130m SHARE PRICE? We will know shortly.

For comparison purposes the H1 2020 year was: -
Revenue £63.3 m
EBITDA £ 44 m
Cash at Bank £ 18 m SHARE PRICE £ 3.20

And as I say in H2 we have the new product additions. Should DHSC get settled within the next few months then we are looking at additional revenues from the contracts due.

I continue to add here, its a total no brainer, the parting shot suggestion of £1 i.e., £ 72m value was a bit of a low blow and very bitter but we are all capable of doing our own research and making our own calls. I know what mine is and I'm happy continuing to build here.

Onwards and upwards

GLA

@Harchris
Yes, I agree.
Of course with the SP crash investors are hurting and are going to blame the CEO and calling for his head on a spike etc etc. However, the reality is they are building one heck of a business on the world stage. We caught a cold with the DHSC and we join a long list of others they are in dispute with, not to be trusted but that will right itself, just a matter of time. "The darkest hour is just before the dawn" as they say...

Meanwhile, IF the LFT news drops and IF the product has "Home" use secured and IF the S&S is decent then this could seriously move the Share Price up, additional revenues being "Substantial" - of course a lot of IF's there BUT they have always delivered. They don't do hype and I have every confidence they won't let us down this time either. Add to that the partner news?
The game is in progress not over... very confident,,,

Not only does our SNPsig® EscapePLEX detect significant #VariantsofConcern, it is also able to detect the Delta plus #variant, much spoken about in the media: https://bit.ly/3vNHf5X Ask our team for more information: enquiries@primerdesign.co.uk #Novacyt #NCYT #COVID19
https://twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1408089562681905155
So on the ball and ahead of the curve...

@Pebble101
Personally i don't want director buys as i don't want any hold off from news.
I would prefer either a small buy-back maybe 5% of stock at market rates, maybe a token dividend at 10p would cost them £7.2m but show maturity maybe once Dispute resolved, BUT for me, a move off the Bourse and onto the NASDAQ it would absolutely make my day, it would be absolute boom time for this stock.
GL

@mapper99
Sounds logical to me, the move to reporting in sterling was the start. The opening of Novacyt Inc stateside also big move. My best guess is move to NASDAQ
We need to do something....

See this is what im talking about....

Just look at that post only two minutes ago from that plonker DarrenBuffer, "Oh i'm not buying at £3.40 but i might if it falls to £ 3.00" ohh i say, charts look like £ 3next.. what do you think.... ohhh

Jesus, give me strength, how many times do we see that kind of post here?, its almost like they think they have invested shorting and the posters here are too stupid to see what's going on.

All the bloody time, insert current share price and, knock 15% off and you will only buy in at the lower price. No calculation, no consideration of value, just a casino punt. They may as well bet on roulette or stick to crypto - joke.

Like you wont buy shares in a business that delivered £ 176m EBITDA valued at £ 239m but you will if its valued at £ 225m - what is this coming to...

I think you should hold off and pick something else, not buy, bad investment
off you trot
bye...

Now i mentioned this business the other night as it is directly in our space.
This post is not to criticise this business but as a mere comparison, one of many

I fully accept that i have a total bias towards Novacyt, lets park that to one side, but this business is worth 50% more than our current value and its a fraction of what Novacyt do imo. It is trading on a PE of X30. We can't even make X2

Now, if you look at this other business and its results statement:-
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EKF/final-results-gsvtun68q95mmpj.html

You will see that they delivered £ 65m of Revenue , EBITDA was £ 25m and it has CAB of £ 20m after debt paid back. Doing well. It is 100% on AIM and NOT on the crappy French Bourse.
it has 442 m of shares and doesn't get plagued by shorter's.
it also spent £ 5m on dividends (Token Jesture)

Now in relation to Novacyt, we have world class R&D, world class Bioinformatics team, distribution network extending to 150 countries, the only assays to detect all known Variants, POC technology, Stateside division, £ 277m revenue, 176m EBITDA and 92m cash at bank - I mean come on FFS.

The DHSC dispute is over £ 20m of product. If they refund all invoiced revenues to DHSC we are still materially in a different league to the example shown.

So excepting the DHSC issue, the big elephant in the room here is that Novacyt has a small amount of shares in issue, is easy to manipulate due to low volumes and lack of II involvement and shorting vultures mainly in France but we have our own scum bags UK side as well, have just totally cannibalised our value constantly citing the DHSC issue yet, DYOR, strip out the disputed invoices and we still come out way ahead.

Sooner we get off the Bourse the bloody better frankly... i genuinely believe this is a massive contribution factor, oh and that ****e outfit ODDO don't do us any favours either...

Ultimately, this will re-rate and whilst the SP remains depressed in this way i am just going to keep adding every month, absolute no brainer...

GLA

@Bluelight
Glad you are back onboard. Just for you:-
"For he's a jolly good fellow, for he's a jolly good fellow
For he's a jolly good fellow (pause), and so say all of us"
Good luck, i really hope this comes good for you now, crazy situation....

Added 2934 at 340.37 Just about raided the piggy bank.
Having done this the SP will likely tank this afternoon but i no longer care. The SP is not even remotely close to the fundamental value of the business, it defies ANY form of logic, at some point this has to give.
Even if they refund the whole bloody lot to the DHSC the value is still more than the current £ 238m mcap.
Good luck all whatever your call
Pork's

Now this is something that will be a welcome addition to existing revenues not to mention a boost to our market value. Also, the partner involved will also be of interest.

According to certain posts on Twitter, it is looking highly likely that an update in this regard will drop before close on Wednesday, which is the half year end.

I have to say I feel incredibly positive about this. IF they can get it right and launch something with a high S&S and secure validation including “Home” use which is NOT easy to obtain then I do not doubt GMs claim that revenues from this product line will be substantial.

Do not forget that Novacyt have a distribution network into 150 countries. Also, if they can secure FDA approval for it, the product can be added to the offerings of Novacyt Inc stateside.

It really is all to play for. Our mcap has been battered down to £ 239m. This product alone could deliver more in sales in the second half than our market cap!!!

Extremely exciting times indeed, GLA

Pork’s

@Hillseeker
Likewise, value your input, appreciated.
In addition, stating the obvious but Antigen LFT out before close on Wednesday? Product push via network, revenues expected to be "Significant" will add to the revenue line. Then we have the 2nd gen Antibody test (identify Vaccine from natural protection) going line from the Q3 again adding to the revenue line and we are not factoring ANY sales in for Novacyt Inc stateside and frankly with the new product roll outs, FDA validated products can be shipped immediately.
To say the forward revenues are conservative is an understatement.

I was surprised that the SP didn't significantly rally on Tuesday, I think the fact that shorts moved in on a small rise and volumes were low, the bear raid worked. Average retail doesn't really understand the figures before them. Applying those figures to the PE ratio that EKF Diagnostics is on our SP would be £ 7+ now. Its just how it is.

However, i believe it's about to change... £ 239m mcap on those figures remains totally farcical whichever way you dice it...

This is why we need to move onto the Nasdaq for a greater investor reach.

With very low volume as current, its easier to place a few shorts to control the price or indeed attract a few trading ars@holes like the post earlier trying to catch a few percentage points. We need to rid these stock of these vultures. Of course there are more viable targets out there now. A number were closing out today, retail sales are fairly exhausted. The Long term holders holding stock now after all events are almost die hard frankly!!! they are not selling, well not at fire sale prices anyhow.

If you create news that will encourage sustained buying or are listed on a market with greater reach, these issues are far less of a problem. It will happen imo, tide starting to turn imo.

Onwards and upwards

@neilrich3
Highly likely, lets face it we know (proven) that GM does not do Hype, if anything he under estimates to ensure they over deliver, that is his style.
The LFT product is going to add "Significant" additional revenues so once released broker forecasts will be updated again. All of the databases will soon be updated with the confirmed financials.
The expansion stateside with the creation of Novacyt Inc is just perfect. Now that coupled with a Nasdaq listing, can you imagine it....
The game is still in play here, as i say business great, share price sh@t BUT the share price will ultimately catch up with the business fundamental values.

Finally, the H1 statement will be out in just a few weeks time. He has already confirmed that they invoiced £ 88.4m in the first five months, so the H1 will likely come in at £100m so they are not going to do zero sales in H2 are they!!!
For comparison purposes the H1 last year was:-
Revenue £63.3 m
EBITDA £ 44 m
Cash at Bank £ 18 m SHARE PRICE £ 3.20

So its fairly safe to assume that if they turn in £100m on similar margins that's an increase of 50% on last year BUT no debt and cash at bank to add of about £ 130m - well that's a £6 share price based on our crappy current valuation metric and that's without the LFT product sales and the new US division.

Only way is up from here frankly, I remain very positive

Pork's

Appreciate some shorts and traders loving giving the business a kicking

Can I just remind that this business delivered £277m of revenue last year, it’s forward revenues are expected to be £100m a year. It has £97m of cash and bank and a disputed £20m worth of product

They are about to launch an LFT line into their product stable within the next week that will add further substantial revenues and have a division opened in the USA called Novacyt Inc that is now selling stateside and advancing.

Not to mention winterplex ready for the flu season. It is not a company going out of business. It is materially undervalued

GLA

Know more when forward statement out

The US diagnostics market is simply massive, the new division "Novacyt Inc" a stroke of genius imo and yes acquisition stateside of another diagnostics business to dovetail with UK operations and further R&D highly likely, to further expand the stateside division.

You know my thoughts on a move to Nasdaq; it would open our shares to a significantly bigger market reach, it would value the business properly in line with our peers and with just 72 m of shares in issue give us the boost we need. Feels like a no brainer.

Novacyt are due to put out the forward plans shortly so we will now more then, if i was a betting man i would say GM knows they need to leave the Bourse and all the extra regulation and language issues it brings with it. They have clearly outgrown it and I'm confident it will happen. Time will tell

GLA